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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    Is there a reason the Harrison twins are assumed to be gone even though it looks like they have no shot at first round and could go undrafted?
    Quote Originally Posted by GGLC View Post
    Because "student athlete" is a joke at Kentucky?
    Because their stock won't go much higher, and they really aren't the college type. Their attitude is more the "if I'm gonna work this hard, I best be getting paid" attitude.

    Ky does have some great kids. I wouldn't put the twins on that list.

    At many schools, seeing which players continue going to class after the tournament is typically revealing. Not sure if that would be true at Ky.

    We know it doesn't matter at unc.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by tux View Post
    You may be right but I have to say that having seen the UK kids interviewed several times, they really seem like a great group of guys. Towns and WCS in particular seem to be well grounded.

    I don't know what to make of Calipari. He's finally at a place where he doesn't have to cheat to get great recruits and win. What he's pulled off is pretty amazing and I think almost every coach in the country would happily take his one-and-done recruits every year. The guys who say they wouldn't just can't land those kids on a consistent basis IMO.
    I don't have time to do the research, but Calipari has a good record of "recruiting" one and dones, but his record of actually getting them there isn't as good.

    I'd guess that only 50% of his expected "one-and-dones" end up actual "one-and-dones". Duke on the other hand, only McRoberts fits into this category, and Deng was not an expected one-and-done who went pro.

    Anyone want to look into the numbers?

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    I don't have time to do the research, but Calipari has a good record of "recruiting" one and dones, but his record of actually getting them there isn't as good.

    I'd guess that only 50% of his expected "one-and-dones" end up actual "one-and-dones". 100% of Duke's one and done players have been one and done

    Anyone want to look into the numbers?
    Well, it depends on how you determine "expected one and dones" and also how you measure success. Jason Williams could have gone pro after his freshman year. Do we consider his return for Sophomore and Junior campaigns a failure? I sure don't.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    No rumor mongering about Duke players please. In this thread or any thread.

    Thank you!

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post

    At many schools, seeing which players continue going to class after the tournament is typically revealing. Not sure if that would be true at Ky.

    We know it doesn't matter at unc.
    Truth, they never even went to class before the tournament.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada
    Probably not news to anyone who's been following this stuff, but Justin Jackson and Brice Johnson are both staying at UNC-CH.

    I really thought there was a chance that, despite low NBA draft prospects, one or more Carolina players would decide to get out of Chapel Hill. There may yet be a surprise out there, but I'm coming around to the the idea that I was likely wrong.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    I don't have time to do the research, but Calipari has a good record of "recruiting" one and dones, but his record of actually getting them there isn't as good.

    I'd guess that only 50% of his expected "one-and-dones" end up actual "one-and-dones". Duke on the other hand, only McRoberts fits into this category, and Deng was not an expected one-and-done who went pro.

    Anyone want to look into the numbers?
    There are others...Singler could have gone pro after his junior year for sure (not one and done, I realize -- but he was a top 5 recruit coming out of high school and I believe all 4 guys ahead of him went pro after their freshmen season). Mason Plumlee said he never thought he'd have stayed at Duke four years coming in, but that's what ended up happening. For the first 2-3 years of Cal at UK, it seemed like all the expected one-and-dones became one-and-dones, but he has recently in the past couple years had guys come back that some expected to leave. It ebbs and flows -- the sample sizes aren't the large.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Nebraska juniors Terran Petteway and Walter Pitchford are both reportedly declaring. Petteway, who led Nebraska with more than 18 ppg this season, would probably be a 2nd rounder who could slip into the first if things go well in workouts. Petteway says he has not yet made up his mind, so this may be premature. Pitchford is the guy who said a week or two ago that he was quitting basketball to focus on completing his degree. Well, he changed his mind but he still does not want to play for Nebraska so he is turning pro. He averaged about 7 ppg as a junior and is not really on anyone's draft radar. If he plays, it would be D-League or overseas.

    Also, Murray St soph guard Cameron Payne is apparently entering the draft. He's expected to be a mid-first rounder after averaging better than 20 ppg and winning Ohio Valley Conference POY this past season.

    -Jason "in terms of maximizing media attention, everyone wants to wait until after the championship tonight to announce their decisions" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Henderson View Post
    Probably not news to anyone who's been following this stuff, but Justin Jackson and Brice Johnson are both staying at UNC-CH.

    I really thought there was a chance that, despite low NBA draft prospects, one or more Carolina players would decide to get out of Chapel Hill. There may yet be a surprise out there, but I'm coming around to the the idea that I was likely wrong.
    The Heels will easily be preseason top ten, maybe top 5.

    Of course, they were preseason #6 this year and the season ended up pretty darn disappointing for them given those lofty expectations.

    -Jason "they need to win now because the stink of NCAA sanctions is leaving the cupboard quite bare looking into the near future" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The Heels will easily be preseason top ten, maybe top 5.

    Of course, they were preseason #6 this year and the season ended up pretty darn disappointing for them given those lofty expectations.

    -Jason "they need to win now because the stink of NCAA sanctions is leaving the cupboard quite bare looking into the near future" Evans
    Yeah, assuming Jackson, Johnson, and Paige all stay (and there is no reason to assume they'll leave), UNC should be very good next year. Jackson was really finding his form, and Paige should be healthy. That trio forms a very dangerous scoring punch, and that ignores Meeks and Tokoto who can both punish you if you forget about them.

    And, perhaps even better than that, there is a real chance that Roy is forced to play a shorter rotation next year. As is, there are no significant recruits coming to UNC in this upcoming class. With Simmons and Hubert graduating, there will only be the two options at C (Meeks and James) and two options at PF (Johnson and Hicks). So Roy will be forced to play his main guys more minutes next year, which is to UNC's advantage.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, assuming Jackson, Johnson, and Paige all stay (and there is no reason to assume they'll leave), UNC should be very good next year. Jackson was really finding his form, and Paige should be healthy. That trio forms a very dangerous scoring punch, and that ignores Meeks and Tokoto who can both punish you if you forget about them.

    And, perhaps even better than that, there is a real chance that Roy is forced to play a shorter rotation next year. As is, there are no significant recruits coming to UNC in this upcoming class. With Simmons and Hubert graduating, there will only be the two options at C (Meeks and James) and two options at PF (Johnson and Hicks). So Roy will be forced to play his main guys more minutes next year, which is to UNC's advantage.
    I agree UNC looks like they will be solid next year.
    If Roy doesn't have a large rotation, who does he sacrifice when he and the coaching staff need to get away to avoid a court storming?

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    ... If Roy doesn't have a large rotation, who does he sacrifice when he and the coaching staff need to get away to avoid a court storming?
    ol' roy's been saving up timeouts for years and years for just such an emergency.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Utah
    UNC and UVa will both be top 5 next year.

    It's possible UNC will be enjoying a postseason ban though, therefore robbing them of the opportunity to beat themselves in the postseason.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, assuming Jackson, Johnson, and Paige all stay (and there is no reason to assume they'll leave), UNC should be very good next year. Jackson was really finding his form, and Paige should be healthy. That trio forms a very dangerous scoring punch, and that ignores Meeks and Tokoto who can both punish you if you forget about them.

    And, perhaps even better than that, there is a real chance that Roy is forced to play a shorter rotation next year. As is, there are no significant recruits coming to UNC in this upcoming class. With Simmons and Hubert graduating, there will only be the two options at C (Meeks and James) and two options at PF (Johnson and Hicks). So Roy will be forced to play his main guys more minutes next year, which is to UNC's advantage.
    Pretty amazing that Paige will be a (very, very good) four year player, while Tyus is likely to be one and done.

    Hard for me to see how Tyus' long-term pro prospects are appreciably better than Paige's. Both are clearly under-sized for the NBA, neither is a great lock-down defender or explosive driver/finisher (what Tyus gets away with as his finishes in college won't work in the NBA). Maybe he's a bit better play-maker (though, honestly, I'd say not by much) and doesn't turn it over as much, but Paige is I think a better shooter -- his numbers are just a bit better than Tyus' 39% to 37% on threes, but he's had to take much tougher shots that Tyus given UNC's lack of any other credible outside shooter.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    And, perhaps even better than that, there is a real chance that Roy is forced to play a shorter rotation next year. As is, there are no significant recruits coming to UNC in this upcoming class. With Simmons and Hubert graduating, there will only be the two options at C (Meeks and James) and two options at PF (Johnson and Hicks). So Roy will be forced to play his main guys more minutes next year, which is to UNC's advantage.
    I don't think Roy will be forced to play a shorter rotation as he'll have basically the same team with +1 year of experience. Now, I think he might, as he showed some hints of that late in this season, and I agree with you that doing so would be extremely beneficial. A 7-man rotation of Paige, Jackson, and Berry in the backcourt with Tokoto, Johnson, Meeks, and Hicks in the frontcourt, where three of those players are seniors and none are freshmen, is national title contending good, especially if Jackson and Berry spend the offseason working on jump shots. But if he insists on playing at an ultra-fast pace and giving prominent roles to the other guys, they'll be good but I don't think will reach their potential.

    The ACC is going to be really good at the top next season between them and NC State and UVA and hopefully us.
    Last edited by Wander; 04-06-2015 at 03:43 PM.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Nugget View Post
    Pretty amazing that Paige will be a (very, very good) four year player, while Tyus is likely to be one and done.

    Hard for me to see how Tyus' long-term pro prospects are appreciably better than Paige's. Both are clearly under-sized for the NBA, neither is a great lock-down defender or explosive driver/finisher (what Tyus gets away with as his finishes in college won't work in the NBA). Maybe he's a bit better play-maker (though, honestly, I'd say not by much) and doesn't turn it over as much, but Paige is I think a better shooter -- his numbers are just a bit better than Tyus' 39% to 37% on threes, but he's had to take much tougher shots that Tyus given UNC's lack of any other credible outside shooter.
    Well, you're comparing junior Paige to freshman Tyus. Paige wasn't as good of a shooter when he was Tyus' age.

    Paige is a very good college player but I think Tyus has a much better feel for the game than Paige does. There's always been some doubt - at least to me - as to whether UNC is better off with Paige at the point or moving to shooting guard a la Nolan Smith or Quinn Cook. There is no such doubt with Tyus and never has been.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Well, you're comparing junior Paige to freshman Tyus. Paige wasn't as good of a shooter when he was Tyus' age.

    Paige is a very good college player but I think Tyus has a much better feel for the game than Paige does. There's always been some doubt - at least to me - as to whether UNC is better off with Paige at the point or moving to shooting guard a la Nolan Smith or Quinn Cook. There is no such doubt with Tyus and never has been.
    Right on both counts in my opinion. The two key differences are that Paige was a too-skinny, inconsistent shooting, limited playmaking PG as a frosh. He was a star as a soph, but that was done moreso playing in an off-ball role. And he was hurt this year. Had Paige gone pro last year, he would have been a late-firstish pick (like Jones would be this year). He came back and didn't help his stock thanks to injury.

    Jones is all PG whereas Paige is an undersized combo guard. But most importantly, Paige wasn't nearly the player Jones is when Paige was a frosh. Those two things go a long way in explaining the discrepancy.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Lancaster, PA

    the twins

    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Because their stock won't go much higher, and they really aren't the college type. Their attitude is more the "if I'm gonna work this hard, I best be getting paid" attitude.

    Ky does have some great kids. I wouldn't put the twins on that list.

    At many schools, seeing which players continue going to class after the tournament is typically revealing. Not sure if that would be true at Ky.

    We know it doesn't matter at unc.
    I agree BD80, the stock issue is a significant one. Their stock has dropped from early 2nd round (last year) to late 2nd round or undrafted. They are going the wrong way.

    In addition I would add two other reasons they're gone:

    1) Their ball dominant style impedes the growth of other star players.
    Last year, the twins were mediocre players on a shorthanded team. The team only played well in the tournament because Calapari had a secret heart-to-heart with the twins demanding they pass the ball and their ability to hit some savior shots at the end of games. At many points during this year, UK had it most talented team with its Harrison platoon, but it’s most effective team was the platoon lead by Tyler Ulis. I know Wisconsin is big, but not as big as UK. Cauley-Stein had 2 points, Dakari had 0, Lee had 0 in the game against Wisconsin. The only way I can explain this is really crappy distribution from the guards.

    2) Backlog of current players affects future recruits (Cal the recruiter wants them out).
    Ulis showed some promise this year and top twenty recruit Isaiah Briscoe is coming in next year. UK is also in hot pursuit of Malik Newman, the top Combo guard in 2015. If both those guys have to play behind the Harrison’s it makes it hard for Calapari to continue recruit the top talent. If those guys play ahead of the Harrison’s it ruins the narrative that UK is the best place to get prepared for the NBA.
    Calapari needs them gone. He is already spinning his narrative
    “I believe they will be when you get the workouts and the interviews and you see their size and their athleticism and all that – when you meet them and say, ‘Those are two of the greatest kids; where did all this other stuff come from? Where’s this narrative? It’s not true,’ ” Calipari said, per the Courier-Journal. “And then I think what’ll happen is they’ll both be in the first round. But even if they’re not, it’ll be shortly thereafter. … There’s so many variables, but I would be surprised if both of them weren’t first-round picks.”
    However a current NBA scout disagrees
    “To say that they’re first rounders, Cal knows better than to think that both those kids are first-rounders,” he said. “I mean, come on, no chance. I’ll bet a million dollars they’re both not drafted in the first round. I don’t care if they go and interview well and they’re good kids. I don’t see it happening. I think he wants them gone, too.
    http://zagsblog.com/articles/calipar...headed-to-nba/

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The Heels will easily be preseason top ten, maybe top 5.
    In 2011, Vanderbilt earned a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and finished 23-11. In 2012, they returned their entire starting five, including three likely late first/early second round draft picks in John Jenkins, Festus Ezeli, and Jeff Taylor. The Commodores were a trendy top 10 pick before the season, seventh in both major preseason polls.

    They did beat national champion Kentucky to win the SEC tournament, but still earned a 5 seed, lost in the round of 32 to 4 seed Wisconsin, and finished 25-11. They were only a tiny bit better in 2012 than in 2011.

    Sure, UNC gets Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson back, as well as their other two starters. Like 2012 Vandy, though, that doesn't guarantee they'll be significantly better, or better at all. Those three could stay at UNC for six years and still not be able to compete with the Okafors and Winslows of the college world. Ol' Roy is recruiting 4-star type players, and I think he's going to end up with 4-star type teams.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Forrest View Post
    In 2011, Vanderbilt earned a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament and finished 23-11. In 2012, they returned their entire starting five, including three likely late first/early second round draft picks in John Jenkins, Festus Ezeli, and Jeff Taylor. The Commodores were a trendy top 10 pick before the season, seventh in both major preseason polls.

    They did beat national champion Kentucky to win the SEC tournament, but still earned a 5 seed, lost in the round of 32 to 4 seed Wisconsin, and finished 25-11. They were only a tiny bit better in 2012 than in 2011.

    Sure, UNC gets Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson and Justin Jackson back, as well as their other two starters. Like 2012 Vandy, though, that doesn't guarantee they'll be significantly better, or better at all. Those three could stay at UNC for six years and still not be able to compete with the Okafors and Winslows of the college world. Ol' Roy is recruiting 4-star type players, and I think he's going to end up with 4-star type teams.
    All of this is true, but omits one key piece of information: next year's freshman class lacks the Okafors and Winslows in it. It is not so much about how great UNC will be, but how much weaker the ACC may be. Of the big boys in the conference, Notre Dame Duke, Louisville, and Syracuse get noticeably weaker, and UVa has to replace their best defender. Only State and maybe UVa look to return nearly as much.

    UNC won't suddenly have the horses to consistently match up with the elite talents, but next year they may not need that level of talent.

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