2015 NBA Early Entry [non-Duke players]

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Reports are out that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will be declaring.

[SCMatt33]

Chris McCullough from Syracuse Has also declared.

[Olympic Fan]

Chris McCullough from Syracuse Has also declared.

Wow! Huge blow for the Orange ... McCullough was a centerpiece of the plan Boeheim had in place to return to national contention next year. With an older Joseph at the point, with veterans Cooney and Gbinije on the wings, with explosive Malachi Richardson coming in -- and McCullough and Coleman coming back from injuries, the 'Cuse could have been a top 10 team next year.

This is kind of a Dion Glover kind of decision. Guy coming off a major injury realizes how fragile his success is and declares.

There was some speculation that Justin Anderson could make the same kind of call.

[CDu]

Wow! Huge blow for the Orange ... McCullough was a centerpiece of the plan Boeheim had in place to return to national contention next year. With an older Joseph at the point, with veterans Cooney and Gbinije on the wings, with explosive Malachi Richardson coming in -- and McCullough and Coleman coming back from injuries, the 'Cuse could have been a top 10 team next year.

This is kind of a Dion Glover kind of decision. Guy coming off a major injury realizes how fragile his success is and declares.

There was some speculation that Justin Anderson could make the same kind of call.

I wonder if the sanctions factor in as well. They aren't relevant for this coming year, but moreso over the next couple of years when the effects of reduced scholarship limits make maximizing recruiting "hits" more critical and minimize the flexibility to have "program" players. But definitely a big loss if he has (and if he stays) declared.

Anderson is an interesting one, too, although his case is entirely different (as his injury wasn't a career-threatening type of injury). He almost has to be in line for a letdown season next year, as there is just no way he maintains the 45% 3pt shooting he had this past year. I even wonder if he'll maintain the 36.7% 3pt percentage he had in ACC play (or the just-under-40% he had prior to return from injury in the ACC tourney). He's an NBA athlete and can defend the SG and SF spots right now, but his other skills are sorely lacking (can't dribble, isn't a great passer, etc). So if his 3pt shooting is indeed a mirage, his NBA future is fairly limited. The question then is whether or not going pro now (and hoping to get by on his November/December 3pt shooting brilliance) or come back and try to prove that he can sustain a ~40% shooting percentage over the course of a full season (not just have an overinflated pre-conference percentage that buoyed his season numbers thanks in part to missing several games as the competition increased) and be a legitimate "3 and D" guy. Tough call.

In some ways, he's got the same issue that Danny Green had: NBA size and athleticism (in his case, even more athletic than Green), potential as a 3pt shooter with good defensive skills, but not much skill elsewhere. Green ended up having to stay 4 years, and even still wasn't drafted in the 1st round.

[Olympic Fan]

FWIW, I was just checking the ESPN draft page, especially the article about who's in and who's out (its insider, so I can't link). It breaks all prospects down into four categories -- declared for the draft; one foot out the door; 50-50; and declared they are staying.

Interesting that McCullough shows up as "declared that he is staying" on the list, while a news story this morning is cited on ESPN that lists him as declaring.

Other ACC players on the list include a bunch of guys on the 50-50 list, including Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson of UNC, Olivier Hanlon of BC and Justin Anderson.

I know this thread is not about Duke guys, but they have Okafor listed as "one foot out the door" and Winslow in the 50-50 list. Tyus Jones is not mentioned.

I wouldn't read too much into that -- as the McCullough listing proves, it's not the most accurate list in the world.

[awhom111]

That sort of ignores the point that there are other places to play professionally, and make a good living, than the NBA.

When I get the chance, probably some time after the Final Four, I will dig out my list of past early entries and figure out where they played this season.

Combo type guards do get their chance overseas and often do well.

[JasonEvans]

FWIW, NBADraft.net has Tyus going #22 in this year's draft. DraftExpress has him #26 in this year's draft. The three experts on CBS Sports Draft page have him going #23, #24, and #29.

Now, I doubt anyone really knows what Tyus is thinking. I would expect Tyus is waiting until the season is done to really think about this NBA stuff. But, it is clear that many experts think he is likely to leave and that he would be a late first rounder if he did come out. On the one hand, first round means guaranteed money (probably in the neighborhood of $1 mil per year depending on where he goes in the mid-20s). But, with stock like this, it is possible that he slips into the second round with no guaranteed money. It will be a dicey decision. Will coming back help his stock at all? Does he want to go to the NBA and play 82 games next year travelling to 4 different cities in 5 days? Does he just want to prove himself against the very best in the world? How eager is he to get the clock started on his rookie deal so he can move onto the big bucks of a 2nd or 3rd contract?

We don't know any of these answers... but some folks seem to think we are the only ones talking about him coming out. The reality is that many NBA draft watchers believe Tyus will turn pro at this point.

-Jason "can I root for Duke to win the NCAA Tourney on the back of huge games from Matt, Quin, Amile, Grayson, and MP3? Ha!" Evans

[NSDukeFan]

-Jason "can I root for Duke to win the NCAA Tourney on the back of huge games from Matt, Quin, Amile, Grayson, and MP3? Ha!" Evans

We don't want them leaving as well. (;

[Olympic Fan]

Willie Cauley-Stein becomes the first Kentucky player to (informally) declare ... he's projected to go in the latter part of the top 10.

Lot of speculation on the Kentucky board as to who goes and who stays -- Adrian Wojnarowski (Laura Keeley's favorite writer) tweeted earlier today that seven Kentucky players would go -- Cauley-Stein, Towns, the Harrison twins, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker and Dakari Johnson.

Kentucky fans are trying to convince themselves that it will be significantly less than that -- but I remember what Calipari said back in November when the first talk of an undefeated season surfaced. He was asked his goal for this team and he said, "Eight first-round draft picks."

I guess he was counting on Alex Poythress too.

[Newton_14]

Willie Cauley-Stein becomes the first Kentucky player to (informally) declare ... he's projected to go in the latter part of the top 10.

Lot of speculation on the Kentucky board as to who goes and who stays -- Adrian Wojnarowski (Laura Keeley's favorite writer) tweeted earlier today that seven Kentucky players would go -- Cauley-Stein, Towns, the Harrison twins, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker and Dakari Johnson.

Kentucky fans are trying to convince themselves that it will be significantly less than that -- but I remember what Calipari said back in November when the first talk of an undefeated season surfaced. He was asked his goal for this team and he said, "Eight first-round draft picks."

I guess he was counting on Alex Poythress too.

I would guess there are 4 locks to go (Towns, Cauley-Stein, Harrison Twins), 1 who is likely (Lyles) and then two at 50/50 (Booker/Johnson). I am not gauging Poythress as the injury muddies the picture with him.

I will add that I feel teams are crazy if they use a Top 10 pick on Cauley-Stein. He can be a good NBA defender for sure, but he is going to help on one on offense. He has no semblance of an offensive game outside of dunking. I just don't see it. Freak athlete, and again, going to be a good, maybe even great defender in the NBA, but not so good I would burn a lottery pick on him. I would take Lyles ahead of him for sure.

[Wander]

I would guess there are 4 locks to go (Towns, Cauley-Stein, Harrison Twins), 1 who is likely (Lyles) and then two at 50/50 (Booker/Johnson). I am not gauging Poythress as the injury muddies the picture with him.

I will add that I feel teams are crazy if they use a Top 10 pick on Cauley-Stein. He can be a good NBA defender for sure, but he is going to help on one on offense. He has no semblance of an offensive game outside of dunking. I just don't see it. Freak athlete, and again, going to be a good, maybe even great defender in the NBA, but not so good I would burn a lottery pick on him. I would take Lyles ahead of him for sure.

Well, Lyles going ahead of him isn't inconsistent with Cauley-Stein going in the top 10. That being said I largely agree with you that he's a little overrated: I know this is an unfair small sample size, but even on the defensive side, look at the games that the Notre Dame and Wisconsin frontcourts had against him...

[ChillinDuke]

I would guess there are 4 locks to go (Towns, Cauley-Stein, Harrison Twins), 1 who is likely (Lyles) and then two at 50/50 (Booker/Johnson). I am not gauging Poythress as the injury muddies the picture with him.

I will add that I feel teams are crazy if they use a Top 10 pick on Cauley-Stein. He can be a good NBA defender for sure, but he is going to help on one on offense. He has no semblance of an offensive game outside of dunking. I just don't see it. Freak athlete, and again, going to be a good, maybe even great defender in the NBA, but not so good I would burn a lottery pick on him. I would take Lyles ahead of him for sure.

Agreed with all of this. Lyles is a really nice player. Cauley-Stein is a freak athlete in a small pond. We'll see how he stacks up when they're all freaks.

Also, if all 7 of those guys go then whoa. Does UK have a ton of firepower coming in? I'm sure they do but I didn't think next year's class was even close to this past year's. We're talking about a returning roster of Ulis, Lee, and Poythress? That's nowhere near as intimidating as C-S, 2 Twins, Johnson, Lee, and Poythress.

Wishful thinking, I'm sure.

CANT WAIT FOR TOMORROW!!!

- Chillin

[brlftz]

Well, Lyles going ahead of him isn't inconsistent with Cauley-Stein going in the top 10. That being said I largely agree with you that he's a little overrated: I know this is an unfair small sample size, but even on the defensive side, look at the games that the Notre Dame and Wisconsin frontcourts had against him...

WCS = Tyson Chandler

i'm guessing that's worth a top 10

[InSpades]

From a random sampling of mock drafts... they have 7 or 8 Kentucky guys going (Poythress being the difference). WCS gets picked at 10 and Lyles goes before him. Both of the Harrisons go in the 2nd round, Booker much higher at drafted in the 1st. Somehow Dakari Johnson gets drafted in the 1st round... not sure how though .

If they are left w/ Ulis, Lee and Poythress then it should be interesting.

The goal of getting 8 guys drafted in the 1st round seems dead unless the Harrison twins shoot up the rankings.

I think Tyson Chandler is WCS's ceiling. If he is Tyson then yah, taking him in the top 10 makes a lot of sense. If he's not... I will note that he didn't block nearly as many shots as say Noel or Davis did in their brief time at Kentucky.

[Edouble]

WCS = Tyson Chandler

i'm guessing that's worth a top 10

Tyson Chandler took a while to develop in the pros.

I will second the notion that WCS is not worth a top 10 pick. Use your top 10 pick on someone else and then call Larry Sanders.

[CDu]

Agreed with all of this. Lyles is a really nice player. Cauley-Stein is a freak athlete in a small pond. We'll see how he stacks up when they're all freaks.

Also, if all 7 of those guys go then whoa. Does UK have a ton of firepower coming in? I'm sure they do but I didn't think next year's class was even close to this past year's. We're talking about a returning roster of Ulis, Lee, and Poythress? That's nowhere near as intimidating as C-S, 2 Twins, Johnson, Lee, and Poythress.

Wishful thinking, I'm sure.

CANT WAIT FOR TOMORROW!!!

- Chillin

Judging by the McDonald's game, there is very little in this year's freshman class to get fired up about. Very unimpressive game. Those games are always sloppy, but you can usually see talent. Aside from Jaylen Brown (at times), that game was a train wreck.

If Kentucky is losing that many guys, they could be in for a not-so-hot year next year. Of course, they do play in the SEC, so they'll probably still win 25+ games before the NCAA tournament.

It is crazy to me that Dakari Johnson - a guy who has averaged just ~15mpg over two seasons at Kentucky (never more than 16.3mpg) - is thinking of going pro. And crazier that some project him as a first round pick.

[bob blue devil]

Is there a reason the Harrison twins are assumed to be gone even though it looks like they have no shot at first round and could go undrafted?

[tux]

Is there a reason the Harrison twins are assumed to be gone even though it looks like they have no shot at first round and could go undrafted?

I'm not high on the twins or WCS in terms of NBA potential. I think Towns is the only really elite talent on that team. I'm intrigued by Lyles but unsure about Booker. Booker has a nice shot, but isn't all that dynamic IMO --- and is clueless on D right now. If they all did the smart thing, then only Towns and WCS would go (and maybe Lyles) and everyone else would stay. That would be a great returning team. But boneheadedness seems to prevail this time of year...

[GGLC]

Is there a reason the Harrison twins are assumed to be gone even though it looks like they have no shot at first round and could go undrafted?

Because "student athlete" is a joke at Kentucky?

[tux]

Because "student athlete" is a joke at Kentucky?

You may be right but I have to say that having seen the UK kids interviewed several times, they really seem like a great group of guys. Towns and WCS in particular seem to be well grounded.

I don't know what to make of Calipari. He's finally at a place where he doesn't have to cheat to get great recruits and win. What he's pulled off is pretty amazing and I think almost every coach in the country would happily take his one-and-done recruits every year. The guys who say they wouldn't just can't land those kids on a consistent basis IMO.