MBB: Duke vs. Gonzaga, Reg Final (Sun 5:05 pm ET, CBS) Pregame/Ingame Thread

[hurleyfor3]

So do what you can to help me lose $100. It's in your best interest. More importantly, if I don't lose money today, I'm going to be sad.

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

[Troublemaker]

We can pooh-pooh their schedule

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

[Troublemaker]

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

That, friends, is an emotional hedge.

I respect your $100 hedge, too, Hendo

[Henderson]

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

It's not their record that of achievement that concerns me. It's the players. They've got good ones.

[Henderson]

Way ahead of you. I've already budgeted a trip to Indianapolis. So if Duke loses, I "win" a grand or so.

Oooh. That's good.

[Troublemaker]

It's not their record that of achievement that concerns me. It's the players. They've got good ones.

Agreed. Just trying to bring more clarity to the schedule stuff.

They've played a bunch of good non-conference teams by now and mostly beat those teams down.

Duke is roughly on Arizona's level, but an overtime loss to Zona on the road is still an impressive showing by the Zags.

[uh_no]

The WCC stinks, but 20-1 and a double championship should still be respected. And Gonzaga's non-conference results are completely consistent with being a 1 or 2 seed.

Beat SMU by 16
Beat Georgia by 12
Beat St. John's in MSG by 7 (and not needing a great comeback to do so)
The aforementioned overtime loss AT Arizona
Beat UCLA by 13 in Pauley Pavilion
Beat Memphis by 18
Beat Iowa by 19 in the Round of 32
Beat UCLA again by 12 in the Sweet 16

compared to
2 wins vs carolina (sweet 16)
win over ND (elite 8)
win over wisconsin on the road (final 4)
win over MSU on the road (elite 8)
win over UL (elite 8)
win over UVA on the road (no comment)
win over St. Johns on the road
win over NCSU (sweet 16)
win over utah (sweet 16)

I'm sure I'm missing one too...that's 8 wins against sweet 16 teams...compared to 2 for the zags...both against the same team
duke has 4 wins against elite 8 teams, vs 0 for gonzaga
duke has 2 wins against final 4 teams, vs 0 for gonzaga

I'm not saying the zags shouldn't be respected (everyone at this stage needs it), but more that our wins are absurd. we SHOULD win this game. I'm never sold on mid majors with gaudy records, and this I staunchly believe is one of those cases. The zags are living on one overtime loss and a bunch of mediocre wins. This would be by far their best win of the season.

we shall see. go devils.

[Troublemaker]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

[gumbomoop]

I don't like that gonzaga has so many upperclassmen. I tend to go with experience in the tournament.

Besides the experience (Zags start 3 seniors and 2 juniors), they've also only lost two games all year. One was an overtime game AT Arizona. The other was a 3-pt loss to BYU. So, losing by > 3 points would be a first for this Gonzaga team this season. We can pooh-pooh their schedule but they played a tougher one than Butler in 2010, and Butler gave us a heck of game. I'm expecting a great regional final tomorrow.

My default criteria for evaluating teams is: talent, experience, depth. (I guess I don't consider coaching enough, which is odd.)

I'll say Duke has an edge in talent, but not much. Experience certainly favors Zags. In a maybe-crucial sense, Zags have just a bit of "depth experience" advantage. That is, their 6th and 7th guys average 22 and 17 minutes, respectively. Now our 6th man, Amile, averages 22, too, though his minutes have fluctuated wildly toward end of season. And neither Marshall nor Grayson get 17 minutes, usually.

As much as I admire Wiltjer's season, Winslow is a tough matchup for him, and for anybody. But Few does sometimes play both Karnowski and Sabonis together, and either because Winslow would still be guarding Wiltjer, or need a rest, or would be overmatched by either Karnowski or Sabonis, Amile or Marshall must play confidently and effectively. For Amile, that means alert cutting for passes from Jahlil, wanting to score along the baseline, and fierce rebounding at both ends. For Marshall, that means staying on his feet when defending, blocking out, and grabbing the ball on rebounds. He needs to play like an experienced 4th-year junior.

[uh_no]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

unfortunately no.

Kentucky has several wins better than gonzaga's best (19)

kansas(14)
UNC(12)
UL(16)
ND(9)

some of them dominant.

i have trouble putting my faith in any team that has such little experience against top competition. It's why I picked NCSU over villanova, and why i picked gonzaga to have lost already. clearly they haven't, but a games extra win isn't enough for me to change my opinion on them.

[KandG]

I'm a numbers guy, so I'll take a stab at putting together a stats analysis of this matchup.

Gonzaga is a very good team and would be a worthy member of the Final Four. I'd rather not see that happen and several factors play in Duke's favor. First, the odds are in Duke's favor. Vegas has the line at -2.5, which is better odds that have been given to MSU (-2.0) and Arizona (-1.0) in their Elite 8 games. Vegas thinks Duke is the best bet out of those three to make it to Indianapolis. Kentucky, for what it's worth, is at -11.0 over Notre Dame.

I'm a big fan of Five Thirty Eight, the blog and now network of Nate Silver of baseball and elections predictions fame. Silver's model has Duke as having a 59% chance of winning, down slightly from the 66% odds over Utah. That's a little bit better than Michigan State's chances (58%) over Louisville and a little worse than Arizona's (60%) over Wisconsin. The people that get paid to make projections give Duke a fairly decent shot at this game.

Let's also not forget that, while Ken Pomeroy's model really likes Utah and Gonzaga, Duke is still ranked ahead of both this year. Pomeroy's models give a lot of information on teams, more than just a ranking. They show, for example, that Duke's offensive efficiency is 3rd best in the nation while Gonzaga's is 4th. Gonzaga has the highest field goal percentage in the country, by the way. Where does this proficiency advantage come from for Duke? I would say rebounding. With Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor, Duke has two guys that can keep offensive possessions going. This skills - getting offensive rebounds - is the best offensive trait of Amile Jefferson. Marshall Plumlee is pretty good at it, too. For Gonzaga, they are just ok at it. Kyle Wiltjer is their best rebounder, but he has fewer offensive boards (49) than Domantis Sabonis (81) on the year. He's tall and gets boards from the stretch-4 spot. By comparison, Okafor has 126 and Jefferson is second at 85. Let's also remember that Pomeroy shows that Gonzaga has gone up against lesser talent all year. Their opponents offensive efficiency was 77th and defensive efficiency was 122nd. Duke's stats were 7th and 22nd, respectively. So they do get rebounds, but have been mostly of the defensive variety and against inferior opponents. Duke presents a real test for their ability to prevent Duke from getting second and third chances.

As for the matchups, Gonzaga presents great size but not so great athleticism. Karnowski is big, 7'1" and 288 pounds. Be he's not particularly mobile. If Gonzaga elects to play Okafor one-on-one, I can see Jahlil having a lot of success spinning around the Polish big man or taking him out to the mid-range or perimeter and driving around him. If they do double Okafor, Winslow and the guards should find a lot of room to cut to the basket or swing it around for open shots. Gonzaga just won't be able to close as quickly as did Utah last night. They only average 3 blocks a game versus 5 per game from Utah. On the perimeter, Tyus, Matt, Quinn, and Grayson should find their counterparts to be about the same size but a little slower. Without a rim protector, they could find a lot of success driving to the basket.

The key to the game, in my opinion, is going to be Justise Winslow versus Kyle Wiltjer. These two are matchup nightmares. Wiltjer can really hit it from range, where he shoots about 47% of his attempts. Whereas Kevin Pangos (63% of attempts) and Gary Bell, Jr. (62%) make most of their field goal attempts beyond the arc, Wiltjer takes most of his shots inside the arc. Winslow will have to challenge the three, but he'll have to make sure Wiltjer doesn't drive to the lane or post up. Justise has the strength to do this, too. He gives up 4 inches of height, but he's so solid and athletic. If Winslow wins this matchup, Duke should be in very good shape. Alternatively, Duke could elect to play Jefferson on Wiltjer with Winslow getting a much smaller player to guard.

The keys to the game, for me, will be keeping Pangos and Bell, Jr. from scoring from deep and preventing Wiltjer from getting many open looks. On offensive, getting rebounds and having our guards go to the hoop should lead the team to victory. It won't be easy, but it should be a lot of fun!

This is awesome, thanks for this analysis. Pangos and Wiltjer are definitely the players on the Zags that unnerve me the most. Quite a few TV pundits are picking the Zags because of their experience, but Bilas feels the Zags are not the type of team, talented as they are, that gives Duke problems and favors Duke.

[dukelifer]

uh_no, I expect you to predict Duke to beat UK if that game occurs then.

Obviously nobody in the country matches Duke's resume.

But you can only play the teams on your schedule, and Gonzaga played the teams on their schedule really well. I don't think Duke would've fared better playing their schedule.

All this goes out the window in this game. These teams are both strong in their own ways and each pose problems for the other. Zags are good and I have no doubt they can beat Duke on any given Sunday. But Duke is also a very good team and if playing their game - they can win. This will be about execution at the end of the game and mental toughness. The Zag's experience will help them but they also have the pressure of never finishing the deal and getting to the FF. Should be a good game with lots of things to watch.

[budwom]

Moi, I think the key is to prevent easy entry passes to Sabonis and Karnowski in the post.

[Saratoga2]

Kentucky is the beast of the tournament, yet a small but efficient ND team played Kentucky to the last minute and should have won. Three missed free throws and Grant deciding to go away from what worked and dribble around taking last second shots the last three possessions were keys to the loss.

The point is that a team that had efficient offense and played very gritty smart ball almost did in a team wtih much more size, athleticism, depth and some would argue talent points out how Duke can beat Gonzaga. Gonzaga is not as highly rated as Kentucky and the only thing they have over Kentucky is experience. If Duke plays their best for 40 minutes, avoids unforced turnovers, rebounds and plays as a team they can and should prevail. I am hoping that will occur and that the players know this game has to be won with their best effort.

[MChambers]

Duke's defense improved overnight, from 27th to 26th, presumably as a result of the good offensive showings by Wisconsin and Notre Dame against tough defenses.

[Jackson]

If we had not allowed Utah 11 offensive rebounds in the first half Friday night, the game would have been over by halftime. Gonzaga has a much bigger front line. I'm hoping for some Amile and MPIII sightings in the first half to keep the Zags off of the boards. If the shooting is as cold as it historically has been in Houston, big factor there. If Justise and Jah are going to be pros, tonight is a good time to show the world that they are. Would be a good time for Tyus and Cook to come up big on offense. Our last 2 games were in the 60s. If Gonzaga likes to push tempo, I would like our chances a lot if the game is in the 80s.

[Indoor66]

Time to TRUST K!

[NashvilleDevil]

compared to
2 wins vs carolina (sweet 16)
win over ND (elite 8)
win over wisconsin on the road (final 4)
win over MSU on the road (elite 8)
win over UL on the road (elite 8)
win over UVA on the road (no comment)
win over St. Johns on the road
win over NCSU (sweet 16)
win over utah (sweet 16)

And that Lousiville game may have been the turning point of the season since they were coming off the losses to NC St and Miami.

[Bob Green]

Need a couple of baskets from Amile, a few rebounds by Marshall, and one 3-bomb and an and-one from Grayson.

Will bench production be needed? It certainly wouldn't hurt; however, barring foul trouble, I am not sure how many minutes the bench will see today. It is the Regional Championship Game with a trip to the Final Four on the line so I expect Coach K to ride his starters as much as possible.

I agree with you the bench needs to produce when they are in the game. So far in the tournament:

Amile Jefferson: 58 minutes, 14 points and 10 rebounds
Grayson Allen: 30 minutes, 9 points and 1 rebound
Marshall Plumlee: 31 minutes, 10 points and 11 rebounds

[Troublemaker]

Gonzaga posts up more than any team in the country. From Synergy via Luke Winn:



They've been efficient with the postup, too, albeit against a weak schedule.

Jahlil (and Amile and MP3) will have to play effective 1-on-1 post defense because Duke's not going to help off their shooters. Karnowski hasn't come across 7'6" length like Jah possesses very often, if at all, this season. Jah bothered Rakeem Christmas twice. Maybe he can bother Gonzaga's big men.