I'm a numbers guy, so I'll take a stab at putting together a stats analysis of this matchup.
Gonzaga is a very good team and would be a worthy member of the Final Four. I'd rather not see that happen and several factors play in Duke's favor. First, the odds are in Duke's favor. Vegas has the line at -2.5, which is better odds that have been given to MSU (-2.0) and Arizona (-1.0) in their Elite 8 games. Vegas thinks Duke is the best bet out of those three to make it to Indianapolis. Kentucky, for what it's worth, is at -11.0 over Notre Dame.
I'm a big fan of
Five Thirty Eight, the blog and now network of Nate Silver of baseball and elections predictions fame. Silver's model has Duke as having a 59% chance of winning, down slightly from the 66% odds over Utah. That's a little bit better than Michigan State's chances (58%) over Louisville and a little worse than Arizona's (60%) over Wisconsin. The people that get paid to make projections give Duke a fairly decent shot at this game.
Let's also not forget that, while Ken Pomeroy's model really likes Utah and Gonzaga, Duke is still ranked ahead of both this year. Pomeroy's models give a lot of information on teams, more than just a ranking. They show, for example, that Duke's offensive efficiency is 3rd best in the nation while Gonzaga's is 4th. Gonzaga has the highest field goal percentage in the country, by the way. Where does this proficiency advantage come from for Duke? I would say rebounding. With Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor, Duke has two guys that can keep offensive possessions going. This skills - getting offensive rebounds - is the best offensive trait of Amile Jefferson. Marshall Plumlee is pretty good at it, too. For Gonzaga, they are just ok at it. Kyle Wiltjer is their best rebounder, but he has fewer offensive boards (49) than Domantis Sabonis (81) on the year. He's tall and gets boards from the stretch-4 spot. By comparison, Okafor has 126 and Jefferson is second at 85. Let's also remember that Pomeroy shows that Gonzaga has gone up against lesser talent all year. Their opponents offensive efficiency was 77th and defensive efficiency was 122nd. Duke's stats were 7th and 22nd, respectively. So they do get rebounds, but have been mostly of the defensive variety and against inferior opponents. Duke presents a real test for their ability to prevent Duke from getting second and third chances.
As for the matchups, Gonzaga presents great size but not so great athleticism. Karnowski is big, 7'1" and 288 pounds. Be he's not particularly mobile. If Gonzaga elects to play Okafor one-on-one, I can see Jahlil having a lot of success spinning around the Polish big man or taking him out to the mid-range or perimeter and driving around him. If they do double Okafor, Winslow and the guards should find a lot of room to cut to the basket or swing it around for open shots. Gonzaga just won't be able to close as quickly as did Utah last night. They only average 3 blocks a game versus 5 per game from Utah. On the perimeter, Tyus, Matt, Quinn, and Grayson should find their counterparts to be about the same size but a little slower. Without a rim protector, they could find a lot of success driving to the basket.
The key to the game, in my opinion, is going to be Justise Winslow versus Kyle Wiltjer. These two are matchup nightmares. Wiltjer can really hit it from range, where he shoots about 47% of his attempts. Whereas Kevin Pangos (63% of attempts) and Gary Bell, Jr. (62%) make most of their field goal attempts beyond the arc, Wiltjer takes most of his shots inside the arc. Winslow will have to challenge the three, but he'll have to make sure Wiltjer doesn't drive to the lane or post up. Justise has the strength to do this, too. He gives up 4 inches of height, but he's so solid and athletic. If Winslow wins this matchup, Duke should be in very good shape. Alternatively, Duke could elect to play Jefferson on Wiltjer with Winslow getting a much smaller player to guard.
The keys to the game, for me, will be keeping Pangos and Bell, Jr. from scoring from deep and preventing Wiltjer from getting many open looks. On offensive, getting rebounds and having our guards go to the hoop should lead the team to victory. It won't be easy, but it should be a lot of fun!