Villanova is the #1 and is the second-strongest #1. Virginia is the #2. NC State is the #8. Regionals are Friday/Sunday in Syracuse's dome.
Discuss here.
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke
Villanova is the #1 and is the second-strongest #1. Virginia is the #2. NC State is the #8. Regionals are Friday/Sunday in Syracuse's dome.
Nova earned it. Congrats.
Tough for UVa
Duke, Wisconsin, UVA >>>>>> Nova. Nova is the number 5 team but they have a 22nd SOS. All the first three mentioned have much bigger wins.
C'mon their best wins are Georgetown, VCU, and Butler.
Thought we'd end up in this spot. Looks very Doable for UVA
"We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust
Gut guess - Northern Iowa beats Virginia 32-28.
Here is the Selection Committee's 1-68 ranking. East Regional teams in bold:
1. Kentucky
2. Villanova
3. Duke
4. Wisconsin
5. Virginia
6. Arizona
7. Gonzaga
8. Kansas
9. Iowa State
10. Baylor
11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame
13. North Carolina
14. Maryland
15. Louisville
16. Georgetown
17. Utah
18. Arkansas
19. West Virginia
20. Northern Iowa
21. SMU
22. Providence
23. Butler
24. Xavier
25. Michigan State
26. Wichita State
27. Iowa
28. VCU
29. Cincinnati
30. Oregon
31. NC State
32. San Diego State
33. St. John's
34. Oklahoma State
35. LSU
36. Purdue
37. Indiana
38. Davidson
39. Ohio State
40. Georgia
41. Texas
42. UCLA
43. Ole Miss
44. BYU
45. Boise State
46. Dayton
47. Wyoming
48. Buffalo
49. Wofford
50. Stephen F. Austin
51. Valparaiso
52. Harvard
53. Eastern Washington
54. UC Irvine
55. Georgia State
56. Northeastern
57. UAB
58. Albany
59. New Mexico State
60. Belmont
61. Texas Southern
62. North Dakota State
63. Lafayette
64. Coastal Carolina
65. North Florida
66. Robert Morris
67. Manhattan
68. Hampton
Not knowing how healthy Justin Anderson is going to be makes this difficult.
"Just be you. You is Enough."
Crazy to me how many folks have MSU beating Virginia. People must have forgotten how good UVA were with Justin Anderson. Ring rust, sure, but he's too good a player not to get it sorted relatively quickly. Got UVA rolling to the FF personally.
A few reasons for this:
- UVA has been slumping and no one knows how healthy Anderson really is or if it's just been an issue of rust
- MSU is a rugged defensive team, just like UVA (though not nearly as efficient). But they score better.
- MSU historically does well in the early rounds this time of year. Or at least has the perception of doing well.
- MSU had Wisconsin on the ropes. And I think Wisconsin is a better team, personally.
That said, I think the game is a toss up with no clear winner. Maybe slight edge to UVA. But that's why they play, right?
Michigan State's adjusted defensive efficiency (in Pomeroy) is exactly the same as Duke's (96.1), while Virginia's is #1 in the country (85.4). And while Michigan State might score a little better than Virginia (114.2 to 112.2), it wouldn't appear to be nearly better enough to make up for the defensive difference. Not only that, but since Pomeroy doesn't account for injuries, if Anderson is back and effective, then Virginia probably scores better than Michigan State.
As you allude, this is largely perception rather than reality (though not completely). Surprisingly, more than half of Izzo's NCAA appearances have come with a 5-seed or lower (10 of 18, including this season). And as a 5-seed, he's done remarkably well, with two Final Fours and a Sweet 16 in three tries. The six times he's had a 6-seed or worse, though, he's had four first-round exits, one second-round exit, and one Elite Eight (as a 7-seed). His two times as a 4-seed resulted in an Elite Eight and a Sweet 16.
So, historically he may have done as well as anyone as a 4- or 5-seed, but as a 6-seed or worse his track record is not so good.
Sparty doesn't have a stretchy big man like Adreian Payne last year.
Whole different ball of wax playing UVA without one of those.
Then again, Louisville and UNC were able to beat a depleted UVA team without one.
Anderson's health is the key.
Playing in a much worse conference, though. I think I heard on Bracketology last night that Izzo has been a 6 seed or below 6 times and has been out after the first weekend 4 times out of 6. Georgia are probably a W but Virginia are just a superior version of them, I think. I think they are a little more versatile and not as reliant on the 3 ball as State are. The fact that Nairn isn't going to hurt them, Dawson is only a threat inside 10 feet and they get nothing from the 5 spot hurts them too much.
From a trajectory standpoint he's already on an incredible pace. The kid played a game in less than seven days after an appendectomy. Then another one the next night. Did he play well? No, but that'll come. Another week will do him wonders. Two more and he'll be back in something like his old form.
Honestly, I don't even want him banging in the lane like he used to - just defend and be a 3-point threat.
This entire region is underwhelming to me, other than UVA with a healthy Anderson. I really don't want to pick any of them.
I think this region isn't that bad, but it's also a reflection of the general blah factor this year outside of the true contenders. The 3/4 line across all regions this year is fairly weak. The Big XII 3 seeds all have similar profiles in terms of wins and losses, with the vast majority of their damage coming in conference. Oklahoma probably has the most Good wins out of conference, beating UCLA and Butler in the Bahamas plus a road win over a former bubble team in Tulsa (though I'd imagine that a few OU fans were in the house). Iowa State beat Arkansas at home and Iowa on the road, but also lost to South Carolina on a neutral floor. They're also the "hot team" right now by winning the tourney, but they were also down double figures in each of those games. Baylor didn't have any tremendous ooc wins, Stephen F. Austin and @Vandy are the best, but they don't have any terrible losses either (@ Illinois is it). The fours aren't much better with Louisville at less than full strength, UNC's only good wins since January are against less than full strength UVA and L'ville in Greensboro, and Georgetown probably being over seeded. The best on those two lines right now might be Maryland and ND. Given that it's so hard to pick a team outside the top 4 to make the Final Four, and the fact that Nova has been buried on FS1 all year and relies super heavily on three's I can see where it's tough to pick someone out of that region.
If Anderson is healthy enough that they can skate through this weekend and he is "back" for the regional, UVA is in decent shape, especially because as good as Villanova is (and they are really good), UVA is a terrible matchup for them. If Anderson isn't truly back, I wouldn't be shocked to see Izzo pull off maybe his most unexpected Final Four run of his career, and that's saying something. They've had some yips at home this year, but they really look to be jelling at just the right time.