Okafor Tip-Offs

[Jay29]

Question for those who study the games closely:

What percentage of jump balls does Jahlil Okafor win (i.e., the possession goes to Duke)? My feeling is that it is a very low percentage for someone with his size and athleticism. I know he's not a great leaper, but he's not exactly stuck to the floor like Zoubek either. If the numbers bear it out, why is he not winning tips?

I don't feel that this is an important factor for winning games -- usually there is a held ball where we gain possession in the first half, or we start the 2nd half with the ball. I'm just a little perplexed as to why he seems so poor at tip-offs.

[-jk]

Being covered elsewhere. I suspect it has more to do with where K wants the rest of the team to set up.

-jk

[-jk]

at the cost of one fewer possession over the course of the game?

Or not giving up a quick first shot. And getting the ball back again, at latest, at the start of the second half.

-jk

[uh_no]

Or not giving up a quick first shot. And getting the ball back again, at latest, at the start of the second half.

-jk

possibly.

but your'e still guaranteed on average 1/2 fewer posessions by giving up the tip.

if there are an even number of jump balls, you'll have no advantage, but if there are an odd number, you'll gain one more by having won the tip.

I think its up to the tipper to know where his team is and tip it to them. I also don't think okafor has great jumping ability. yeah he's tall, but he hardly jumps to dunk, and he rarely if ever gets up in the air much on D, allowing situations where opponents can shoot over him relatively easily. Maybe he can, but he certainly can't jump like miles. It comes with being a bigger guy.

[Karl Beem]

Duke won 3 of the 1st 6 tips.

[Jay29]

Being covered elsewhere. I suspect it has more to do with where K wants the rest of the team to set up.

-jk

Where else is it being covered? Don't see another thread title on the front page.

[brevity]

Where else is it being covered? Don't see another thread title on the front page.

It's a digression in the Okafor/Kaminsky thread here.

[duketaylor]

I think it matters not. It effectively defers to another possession, as in after K has seen some play, he can make adjustments. I can't imagine the 1st possession being important. In football, there are a much more finite number of possessions, usually 8-10 in a game. Basketball has so many more that I think it's irrelevant.
Or, and this is a big assumption, he prefers to play D first. Possible.

[Acymetric]

possibly.

but your'e still guaranteed on average 1/2 fewer posessions by giving up the tip.

if there are an even number of jump balls, you'll have no advantage, but if there are an odd number, you'll gain one more by having won the tip.

I think its up to the tipper to know where his team is and tip it to them. I also don't think okafor has great jumping ability. yeah he's tall, but he hardly jumps to dunk, and he rarely if ever gets up in the air much on D, allowing situations where opponents can shoot over him relatively easily. Maybe he can, but he certainly can't jump like miles. It comes with being a bigger guy.

One nitpick, "guaranteed" and "on average" aren't exactly contradictory but it does sound more like a line from Anchorman than a real evaluation of stats. Guaranteed would mean that every team that loses opening possession has at least 1/2 fewer possessions which I doubt is the case (average implies that some teams must have more possessions after losing the tip). Opening tip is of little significance at best, I wonder what the turnover rate is for the possession following a tip compared to other possessions. Intuition and recollection tells me it would be higher and thus a less valuable possession on average but I could be way off.

[rsvman]

He loses every tip, at least in the past 10 games or so. Not sure if it is on purpose.

I think if winning the tip were important, Coach K would've switched to having Winslow jump the opening tip.

[Acymetric]

I think it matters not. It effectively defers to another possession, as in after K has seen some play, he can make adjustments. I can't imagine the 1st possession being important. In football, there are a much more finite number of possessions, usually 8-10 in a game. Basketball has so many more that I think it's irrelevant.
Or, and this is a big assumption, he prefers to play D first. Possible.

I'm just spit-balling here, but starting with the possession arrow gives you a little bit more of an incentive and emotional reward for going hard after the first loose balls and once you've got after that first one it kind of gets you in the mindset. I don't think there is any strategy to lose tips involved, its just the way it has panned out, just a possible interesting benefit of starting with the arrow. Rewards early tough defense and hustle.


...Why don't we pay it off in Canadian dollars and save some money?

[Kedsy]

He loses every tip, at least in the past 10 games or so. Not sure if it is on purpose.

I think if winning the tip were important, Coach K would've switched to having Winslow jump the opening tip.

OK, I just went through the game logs. Overall, Duke has won 11 out of 30 tipoffs. We won 9 of our first 15 tips, and have only won 2 of our last 15 tips.

But we've won 2 of our past 4 tipoffs (vs. Virginia Tech and Clemson, although Clemson obviously wasn't Okafor), which would imply it isn't intentional (although I suppose we could have won those two by mistake).

Not sure it means anything, but here's the game-by-game rundown:

Duke game tipoff winners:
-------------------------
Duke (vs. Presbyterian)
Duke (vs. Fairfield)
Duke (vs. Mich St)
Duke (vs. Temple)
Stanford
Furman
Duke (vs. Army)
Wisconsin
Elon
Duke (vs. UConn)
Toledo
Duke (vs. Wofford)
Duke (vs. BC)
Wake Forest
Duke (vs. NC State)
Miami
Louisville
Pitt
St. John's
Notre Dame
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Notre Dame
Florida State
Syracuse
UNC
Duke (vs. Clemson)
Duke (vs. Virginia Tech)
Syracuse
Wake Forest

[94duke]

It could just be technique. IIRC, Jah approaches the opening tip with his hands at his side. Opposing centers usually have their dominant hand up beside their ear. They are quicker to the ball as a result.

[juise]

I think if winning the tip were important, Coach K would've switched to having Winslow jump the opening tip.

Agreed. Justise would likely snatch the ball out of the air and glide to the hoop for an easy slam. I think Duke would be doing that if not for the risk of Daniel Ewing getting T'd up afterward.

[Emerrick]

At least I'm not the only to who have noticed he seems to lose a lot of tip-offs.

[bluedev_92]

Being covered elsewhere. I suspect it has more to do with where K wants the rest of the team to set up.

-jk

Could understand that as far as not getting the ball back after Okafor touches the ball on the tip - but I'm thinking more of the times where he is beat to the tip...
I'm with everyone else, not a big deal - but reaction time does seem a bit slow.

[UrinalCake]

Seems like it would make more sense to have someone else do the tip so that they can tip it TO Jahlil. Getting the initial tip is more about springiness and quickness, whereas securing the ball after it's tipped is more about height and vertical reach. So have Justice do the tip and Oak standing around the circle ready to receive the tipped ball. Also, if we lose the tip then we naturally want Oak to start out closer to our basket since he's the center.

[CDu]

possibly.

but your'e still guaranteed on average 1/2 fewer posessions by giving up the tip.

if there are an even number of jump balls, you'll have no advantage, but if there are an odd number, you'll gain one more by having won the tip.

I think its up to the tipper to know where his team is and tip it to them. I also don't think okafor has great jumping ability. yeah he's tall, but he hardly jumps to dunk, and he rarely if ever gets up in the air much on D, allowing situations where opponents can shoot over him relatively easily. Maybe he can, but he certainly can't jump like miles. It comes with being a bigger guy.

First, I don't think you are "guaranteed" any difference in number of possessions. I would say that you are almost guaranteed to get at least as many possessions by winning the opening tip (the only way this is not true is if the other team gets the last possession of both halves), so it certainly is advantageous to win it. But it is possible to end up with fewer (or more) possessions either way.

As for the other part, I don't think this is a situation where Coach K is actively giving up the tip or a case where Okafor isn't tipping it the right way. I think it is just a case that Okafor just isn't winning the tip (the other guy is directly the tip).

[uh_no]

First, I don't think you are "guaranteed" any difference in number of possessions. I would say that you are almost guaranteed to get at least as many possessions by winning the opening tip (the only way this is not true is if the other team gets the last possession of both halves), so it certainly is advantageous to win it. But it is possible to end up with fewer (or more) possessions either way.

As for the other part, I don't think this is a situation where Coach K is actively giving up the tip or a case where Okafor isn't tipping it the right way. I think it is just a case that Okafor just isn't winning the tip (the other guy is directly the tip).

"average"

It is provably true that the team that wins the tip will average 1/2 more possessions per game than the other team in the long run.

Assumptions: who wins the tip is independent of who gains more possessions of offensive rebounding, and who ends the half with the ball, and thus are irrelevant in analyzing possessions gained and lost by winning the tip

Case 1: even number of jump balls...the teams will gain the same number of possessions
Case 2: odd number of jump balls...the team that won the tip will gain one more possession than the team that didn't

0*.5 + 1*.5 = 1/2...expected number possessions gained by winning the tip.

[CDu]

"average"

It is provably true that the team that wins the tip will average 1/2 more possessions per game than the other team in the long run.

Assumptions: who wins the tip is independent of who gains more possessions of offensive rebounding, and who ends the half with the ball, and thus are irrelevant in analyzing possessions gained and lost by winning the tip

Case 1: even number of jump balls...the teams will gain the same number of possessions
Case 2: odd number of jump balls...the team that won the tip will gain one more possession than the team that didn't

0*.5 + 1*.5 = 1/2...expected number possessions gained by winning the tip.

Not guaranteed, though. Perhaps "expected", not "guaranteed".

Either way, we're arguing about an irrelevant point. Coach K is not choosing to lose the tip. So it isn't a case of good or bad strategy on Coach K's part regarding losing the tip.