ACC tournament seeding

[Seattle Hoo]

Reading this thread and reading the threads on the UVA board relative to the same issue is very interesting to me. Over there, the discussion is all about hoping everybody else loses so UVA has a cushion, and over here it is all about whether UVA will lose a couple games. To me, what is fascinating is that both discussions center around the Hoos losing. I guess that's natural. My position on it is this: I am very confident that Virginia will not lose more than one game the rest of the regular season. The Pitt game gives me more reason to believe that, because what made the Wake game as close as it was was bad decisions by Virginia down the stretch, and a disturbing trend of losing intensity after getting a big lead early in the second half. The decision-making was much better against Pitt, and if Virginia plays with good mental focus, only Louisville has a chance to beat the Hoos, and even that is dubious. Louisville is a deeply flawed team. I've watched Virginia enough to know that they are unlikely to lose to any of the teams remaining.

That said, I want Duke, Louisville, Notre Dame and Carolina to win as many games as they can. I want all five of the top teams to go into the tournaments as strong as possible. That sets up a great ACC Tournament. It sets up the ACC to get a lot of high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. We're having one of the great seasons of the last twenty years. With average scoring margin one of the lowest in history (a stat I got off of this board), and with TWO top 5 teams, another Top 10 team, and two more in the top 15, and with it not just being Duke and UNC dominating everybody else, it's been a tense and interesting season. We can make it a great tournament and a real season to remember if these teams all stride into the tournament season like titans. That's what I hope. I don't want UVA to lose a couple games and limp into the tournament as the 1 seed only because everybody else fell down too.

Last night was a great game. Duke-UVA was a great game. I want to see some more great games. I want to see a great Tournament.

And I want to see a really boring regular season stretch run because UVA keeps winning.

[jhmoss1812]

Can UVA lose at least two more games? Of course. Can Duke win out? Of course. The likelihood of both of those things happening together are much lower though. UVA and Duke are basically guaranteed a double bye and are most likely going to be on opposite sides of the bracket (UVA 1, Duke 2 or Duke 1, UVA 2). It's a lot less likely that UVA and Duke are on the same side of the bracket, which is fine by me.

[-bdbd]

I think things look just fine for now for Duke. I am expecting a 2 or 3 seed, and ACCT matchups with (or teams similar to, if seedings hold up) Miami/Clemson/FSU (Thursday), ND (Fri.) and UVA (Sat.).

The standings now have UVA at the top, with ND and Duke essentially 2 games back, followed by L'ville & NC two games further back. Looking at the remaining skeds, you'd have to give a high probability to UVA losing no more than one more game (though they DO have 3 away games, but one of those is @ Wake). Similarly, Duke and ND have managable slates left as well - both play ony one more ranked opponent (ND at L'ville and Duke at NC). Both Duke and ND have only 2 away games left as well. NC has three 'losable" games left - hosting State & Duke, and @ MIA - so expecting 1-2 losses there. L'ville's remaining slate holds 2 ranked opponents, and then vs MIA and @ FSU, plus factoring in their current losing skid, you would expect to see L'ville finish 5th, with maybe 2 or more losses left.

Current ACC standings:
TEAM CONF GB OVR
#2 Virginia 12-1 -- 24-1
#10 Notre Dame 11-3 1.5 23-4
#4 Duke 10-3 2 23-3
#12 Louisville 8-5 4 20-6
#15 North Carolina 8-5 4 18-8
Syracuse 8-5 4 17-9
Miami (FL) 7-6 5 17-9
Clemson 7-7 5.5 15-11
Florida St 7-7 5.5 15-12
...


So, you'd reasonably expect ACCT seedings at the top to look something like this:

1. Waho-U
2. Duke/ND
3. ND/Duke
4. NC
5. 'ville

UVA's remaining slate:
Feb 22 vsFSU 6:30 PM ET
Feb 25 @WAKE 7:00 PM ET
Feb 28 vsVT 4:00 PM ET
Mar 2 @SYR 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 @#12 LOU TBD

Here's Duke's remaining slate:
Feb 21 vsCLEM 4:00 PM ET
Feb 25 @VT 9:00 PM ET
Feb 28 vsSYR 7:00 PM ET
Mar 4 vsWAKE 8:00 PM ET
Mar 7 @#15 UNC TBD

And ND's:
Feb 21 @BC 4:00 PM ET
Feb 24 vsSYR 8:00 PM ET
Mar 4 @#12 LOU 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vsCLEM 4:00 PM ET

And NC's:
Feb 21 vsGT 12:00 PM ET
Feb 24 vsNCST 8:00 PM ET
Feb 28 @MIA 2:00 PM ET
Mar 3 @GT 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vs#4 DUKE TBD

And L'ville's:
Feb 21 vsMIA 2:00 PM ET
Feb 23 @GT 7:00 PM ET
Feb 28 @FSU 12:00 PM ET
Mar 4 vs#10 ND 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vs#2 UVA TBD

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Not really. It's more injuries than anything else

I agree that injuries have definitely played a role in our reg season conference record(see Ryan Kelly and Kyrie Irving).

But as Olympic pointed out, since Kyrie in 2011, the One And Dones have indeed played a role in fielding some younger than usual Duke teams. If KI, Austin, Jabari, and Hood had stayed more than one year, our odds of finishing first would have been much more likely in either '12, '13, '14, or this year.

And the unbalanced schedule the last 3 years has hurt us as well. Hopefully soon the schedule will tip back in our favor.

Sure, but this line of thinking has always been silly to me. Does our win last night count for less because it came in overtime, which is essentially a tiebreaker? We won the ACC regular season in 2010, IMO no need for any qualifiers about it being "outright."

In 2010, if you want to be technical, we lost the tiebreaker to MD, as we were the #2 seed in the ACCT.

It isn't "outright " when another team can also lay claim to the same title in the same year. That's called a tie.

[hurleyfor3]

In 2010, if you want to be technical, we lost the tiebreaker to MD, as we were the #2 seed in the ACCT.

Incorrect, we were the 1 seed. Source: Was there, but also Wikipedia.

[gofurman]

I think things look just fine for now for Duke. I am expecting a 2 or 3 seed, and ACCT matchups with (or teams similar to, if seedings hold up) Miami/Clemson/FSU (Thursday), ND (Fri.) and UVA (Sat.).

The standings now have UVA at the top, with ND and Duke essentially 2 games back, followed by L'ville & NC two games further back. Looking at the remaining skeds, you'd have to give a high probability to UVA losing no more than one more game (though they DO have 3 away games, but one of those is @ Wake). Similarly, Duke and ND have managable slates left as well - both play ony one more ranked opponent (ND at L'ville and Duke at NC). Both Duke and ND have only 2 away games left as well. NC has three 'losable" games left - hosting State & Duke, and @ MIA - so expecting 1-2 losses there. L'ville's remaining slate holds 2 ranked opponents, and then vs MIA and @ FSU, plus factoring in their current losing skid, you would expect to see L'ville finish 5th, with maybe 2 or more losses left.

Current ACC standings:
TEAM CONF GB OVR
#2 Virginia 12-1 -- 24-1
#10 Notre Dame 11-3 1.5 23-4
#4 Duke 10-3 2 23-3
#12 Louisville 8-5 4 20-6
#15 North Carolina 8-5 4 18-8
Syracuse 8-5 4 17-9
Miami (FL) 7-6 5 17-9
Clemson 7-7 5.5 15-11
Florida St 7-7 5.5 15-12
...


So, you'd reasonably expect ACCT seedings at the top to look something like this:

1. Waho-U
2. Duke/ND
3. ND/Duke
4. NC
5. 'ville

UVA's remaining slate:
Feb 22 vsFSU 6:30 PM ET
Feb 25 @WAKE 7:00 PM ET
Feb 28 vsVT 4:00 PM ET
Mar 2 @SYR 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 @#12 LOU TBD

Here's Duke's remaining slate:
Feb 21 vsCLEM 4:00 PM ET
Feb 25 @VT 9:00 PM ET
Feb 28 vsSYR 7:00 PM ET
Mar 4 vsWAKE 8:00 PM ET
Mar 7 @#15 UNC TBD

And ND's:
Feb 21 @BC 4:00 PM ET
Feb 24 vsSYR 8:00 PM ET
Mar 4 @#12 LOU 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vsCLEM 4:00 PM ET

And NC's:
Feb 21 vsGT 12:00 PM ET
Feb 24 vsNCST 8:00 PM ET
Feb 28 @MIA 2:00 PM ET
Mar 3 @GT 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vs#4 DUKE TBD

And L'ville's:
Feb 21 vsMIA 2:00 PM ET
Feb 23 @GT 7:00 PM ET
Feb 28 @FSU 12:00 PM ET
Mar 4 vs#10 ND 7:00 PM ET
Mar 7 vs#2 UVA TBD

I don't want to face Miami in a Thurs game - that's the only Thursday game I see us losing. The upside to playing Miami in ACC is potential practice vs a super quick guard team even if it means early exit from ACC - maybe we would zone now'

[Newton_14]

Incorrect, we were the 1 seed. Source: Was there, but also Wikipedia.

Correct and also the tiebreaker is only about seed and has nothing to do with the regular season title. Both teams are co-champs and the tiebreaker is simply about seeding in the tournament. Nothing else.

[CDu]

This all day long and twice on Sunday. THE ACC Champion is the tourney winner. The unbalanced schedule makes it impossible to determine a fair winner. That is nothing at all against UVA either. I love their team and they may very well be the best team at full health. Not sure. But the regular season just can't tell us who the best team is.

Even with so many teams, I wish they would go round robin and cut out several cupcake games early in the year.

I want to win the tourney far worse than I want to finish first with an unbalanced schedule.

You know what else can't tell us who the best team was? A single elimination tournament with way fewer games and an even more unbalanced schedule. I love the tourney, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking it is in any way better at determining the best team.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

Incorrect, we were the 1 seed. Source: Was there, but also Wikipedia.

I stand corrected. I should have remembered that.

Dang my old age!(I turn 36 on Sunday)

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

So who is going? Also who has spare tickets for face value. I think I will fly up on Tuesday and mull around Greensboro until I find someone selling a book. The ticket prices online are outrageous, such as 5 grand for a book of lower level seats. I imagine by Wed/Thurs there will be losers giving away tickets. By losers I mean fans of teams that lost games, (Looking at you Wake and NC State fans) I see them as the most appealing teams to lose to get cheap tickets. Obviously Carolina would be the most ideal but if I am going I want a Duke VS Carolina championship game if at all possible.

I haven't been since the DC tourney, which was a fun time. It also introduced me to five guys burgers and fries, which was a wonderful experience.

See you all there.

[jv001]

So who is going? Also who has spare tickets for face value. I think I will fly up on Tuesday and mull around Greensboro until I find someone selling a book. The ticket prices online are outrageous, such as 5 grand for a book of lower level seats. I imagine by Wed/Thurs there will be losers giving away tickets. By losers I mean fans of teams that lost games, (Looking at you Wake and NC State fans) I see them as the most appealing teams to lose to get cheap tickets. Obviously Carolina would be the most ideal but if I am going I want a Duke VS Carolina championship game if at all possible.

I haven't been since the DC tourney, which was a fun time. It also introduced me to five guys burgers and fries, which was a wonderful experience.

See you all there.

I hope we don't end up playing NC State or Wake, but especially State. They play over their heads against Duke. I wish they did that against uncheat. I remember when they did. Have a great time at the Tourney. By the way, I appreciate your service. GoArmy and GoDuke!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I hope we don't end up playing NC State or Wake, but especially State. They play over their heads against Duke. I wish they did that against uncheat. I remember when they did. Have a great time at the Tourney. By the way, I appreciate your service. GoArmy and GoDuke!

I just meant that when Wake, NC State or UNC, or even Duke for that matter lose there tends to be a ton of tickets available for really cheap in lower levels. Also, I actually hope we get to play State in the tourney as it would give us a chance to avenge a loss, same goes for Miami. The mental revenge factor is very real in the tourney I think. By that measure, I want no part of UVA and since I will be there I want a Duke UNC final.

[jv001]

I just meant that when Wake, NC State or UNC, or even Duke for that matter lose there tends to be a ton of tickets available for really cheap in lower levels. Also, I actually hope we get to play State in the tourney as it would give us a chance to avenge a loss, same goes for Miami. The mental revenge factor is very real in the tourney I think. By that measure, I want no part of UVA and since I will be there I want a Duke UNC final.

Good points. I just want Duke to play up to their potential, no injuries and of course win the Tournament. If we play our best, I don't think even the Cavaliers will beat us. A win over the Cheaters would be nice. GoDuke!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Good points. I just want Duke to play up to their potential, no injuries and of course win the Tournament. If we play our best, I don't think even the Cavaliers will beat us. A win over the Cheaters would be nice. GoDuke!

Winslow on Lebron

Jones on Kyrie

Oak on Love

were golden, bring on the CAVS baby, lets just play 3 on 3 though our freshman vs their big 3!!

[Olympic Fan]

You know what else can't tell us who the best team was? A single elimination tournament with way fewer games and an even more unbalanced schedule. I love the tourney, but let's not kid ourselves into thinking it is in any way better at determining the best team.

It's not about which one is best for determining the best team.

It's about determining the ACC champion.

The ACC Tournament determines the ACC champion. Period.

Like it or not. Prefer the "Regular season championship" of not, the ACC Tournament Champion is the one and only, OFFICIAL, ACC champion.

It's been that way since 1954 ... the conference only began to officially recognize the regular season champion (as the "Regular season champion") in 1990.

Naturally, I'd prefer to win both. But if I had to choose one or the other, I'd prefer to be the league's official champion -- and that means winning the tournament.

[uh_no]

Like it or not. Prefer the "Regular season championship" of not, the ACC Tournament Champion is the one and only, OFFICIAL, ACC champion.

why are you so militant about what amounts to semantics? We hang banners for it, it's recognized by the ACC, it's given credit by fans and the media...that's good enough for me.

[Bob Green]

why are you so militant about what amounts to semantics?

It is not semantics. The winner of the ACCT is the official conference champion. This fact is very important to us older fans.

[bob blue devil]

It is not semantics. The winner of the ACCT is the official conference champion. This fact is very important to us older fans.

hesitant to wade in here, but as far as i can read it, the conversation went something like:
- acct determines the champion, i'd rather have that
- yes, and unbalanced regular season makes it impossible to determine a fair winner; it can't determine who the best team is; acct is better
- on the contrary, the acct is even more ineffective in determining the best team given the luck of the draw, and the single elimination nature

so... i'm with cdu in that the acc regular season does a better job determining the best team. of course at the end of the day i'd rather have an acc championship than a regular season championship, but i haven't read anyone arguing the contrary. if they awarded the acc championship to the regular season champion it would be more likely to go to the best team (not that i'd want that - it would take a lot of the fun out).

[uh_no]

It is not semantics. The winner of the ACCT is the official conference champion. This fact is very important to us older fans.

The text on the banner says "atlantic coast conference champions" followed by tournament or regular season. Are you advocating an asterisk on the regular season ones that says "unofficial?"

[CDu]

hesitant to wade in here, but as far as i can read it, the conversation went something like:
- acct determines the champion, i'd rather have that
- yes, and unbalanced regular season makes it impossible to determine a fair winner; it can't determine who the best team is; acct is better
- on the contrary, the acct is even more ineffective in determining the best team given the luck of the draw, and the single elimination nature

so... i'm with cdu in that the acc regular season does a better job determining the best team. of course at the end of the day i'd rather have an acc championship than a regular season championship, but i haven't read anyone arguing the contrary. if they awarded the acc championship to the regular season champion it would be more likely to go to the best team (not that i'd want that - it would take a lot of the fun out).

Thank you for understanding the point. I wasn't discussing "champion" at all. I was pointing out that many revere the Tourney for its alleged ability to determine the conference's best, and bemoan the meaninglessness of the unbalanced regular season. Well, that is silly: the tourney is way more unbalanced, over way shorter a period of time. It is a far inferior measure of the best team. The regular season, even though it is unbalanced, is the better representation of best team. Both are impressive; the regular season is more impressive.

As to the other issue (which had nothing to do with my prior post, but since it has been brought up), I will say this: I realize and respect that the older folks celebrate the tourney over all else ACC. But I do believe that it is an outdated viewpoint. We hang banners for both. Coach K has stated both as goals each season. And with tourney expansion we don't need the tourney title to make the NCAA tourney (nor do we usually need it to get a 1 seed in the NCAA).

I still want to win both. But the regular season title is, in my opinion, more impressive.