ACC tournament seeding

[jhmoss1812]

The 3 seed is really tough, as you have to play in the very last game of the day and then come back the following afternoon. For that reason I'm really hoping we can secure the 2. I'm more concerned about depth than I am about playing freshmen. Three games in three days when you run a 8-man rotation where the #7 and #8 players are usually in single-digit minutes is a pretty tall order.

I don't think the 3 seed is as tough this year as in past years. You play Thursday at 9 and then Friday at 9. And then the championship is 8:30 on Saturday. It's different this year with having a Saturday final instead of a Sunday one. Of course, it's still the least favorable in terms of schedule but it's not quite as bad as it used to be.

As for UVA, I think we lose to NCSU this Wednesday. Too quick of a turnaround to figure out how to play without Anderson. He's so important on both sides of the ball and we'll be relying mostly on freshman (Shayok, Hall and Stith) to replace him. Nolte will get extended minutes too but he's been in a huge funk. Plus, NCSU is a tough team to play at home and needs a big win badly.

[devildeac]

I don't think the 3 seed is as tough this year as in past years. You play Thursday at 9 and then Friday at 9. And then the championship is 8:30 on Saturday. It's different this year with having a Saturday final instead of a Sunday one. Of course, it's still the least favorable in terms of schedule but it's not quite as bad as it used to be.

As for UVA, I think we lose to NCSU this Wednesday. Too quick of a turnaround to figure out how to play without Anderson. He's so important on both sides of the ball and we'll be relying mostly on freshman (Shayok, Hall and Stith) to replace him. Nolte will get extended minutes too but he's been in a huge funk. Plus, NCSU is a tough team to play at home and needs a big win badly.

I will root (root, root) for the home team here to bring UVa one loss closer to Duke, but I'm not putting much faith in a team who has lost at home to Wofford and Clemson this year.

[Kedsy]

I'm not putting much faith in a team who has lost at home to Wofford and Clemson this year.

And beaten Duke. State is a decent team who can get up for a big game. Not saying they'll beat Virginia, but they certainly have a shot.

[devildeac]

And beaten Duke. State is a decent team who can get up for a big game. Not saying they'll beat Virginia, but they certainly have a shot.

Of course they have a shot, that's why I made the statement "...not putting much faith..." and not making the statement "...putting no faith." They'll practice hard, show up ready to play, hopefully have a good game, knowing they've got a better chance of winning with Anderson out of the line-up, and, if they win, storm the court as they celebrate their first home win over a Top 25 foe not named Duke in the last ~4.5 seasons (if my recent perusal of their 2010/11 to 2014/15 season results is correct). Heck, I might even risk life and limb and make the 10 mile drive from my house to participate in the festivities if that happens.

[-bdbd]

We'll have to agree to disagree then. Because I'm convinced that UVA isn't dropping more than one game.

And while Anderson is their "best" player, UVA's difference between their #1 and #2 player and #3 players is arguably the smallest drop-off. For instance, Duke would suffer much more if Okafor we're out for 4-6 weeks than UVA would be without Anderson.

Also, UVA's schedule is incredibly favorable for the last 8 games. They don't face a ranked team until Louisville, the last game of the reg season (and I suspect Anderson will be back by then). Their away games are NCSU (challenging), Wake (a joke), Syracuse (will they fight? it is their last game of the season), and Louisville (tough).

Duke has a fairly challenging remaining schedule, with playing two teams twice (UNC and Syracuse) who are going to fight Duke harder than then they play any other team just for the sake of us being their main ACC rival.

I am conceding the ACC reg title to UVA because I think that they are in the best position to win it all, even without Anderson for the majority of the reg games remaining. However, going into the ACC tournament, if we continue to improve, I am also convinced that we will win it.

I have to agree that UVA is fairly close to locking in on the #1 seed. The NFL analogy fails b/c in the NFL, teams don't generally enter almost all of their "remaining 8-9 games" with 90+% chance of winning in each of them. UVA shouldn't lose more than one more game - which is certainly different from "can't.")

I think the odds should dictate that we root for UVA to WIN all of its remaining games against the other "top-5" schools. (Feel free to root against them versus State and Wake, but it may be fairly futile...) At this juncture, I would be satisfied/pleased if we were able to still grab the #2 seed. I think #2 or #3 serves us well, but would really look hard at avoiding #4 or #5, as those would likely get a semi-final date with UVA. Obviously be sure to root against the other top-5 teams versus non-top-5 ACC schools.

I hadn't heard any official announcement, but had assumed the Syracuse's withdrawl from the ACCT meant that there was one less first-round game - in effect the #11 seed now gets a free pass to the next round. Should be a really competitive tournament for once. There's obviously a few ways the conference could go to accommodate the Orange's no-show. I was assuming they'd, effectively, become the #16 seed. But there's other ways to go as well...

Here is what the brackets looked like before Syracuse's withdrawl: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_AC...all_Tournament

[wk2109]

I have to agree that UVA is fairly close to locking in on the #1 seed. The NFL analogy fails b/c in the NFL, teams don't generally enter almost all of their "remaining 8-9 games" with 90+% chance of winning in each of them. UVA shouldn't lose more than one more game - which is certainly different from "can't.")

I just don't buy the premise that Virginia has a "90+% chance" of winning those games, because those percentages are based on results WITH Anderson. Without him, Virginia's offensive and defensive efficiency will suffer, thus decreasing the team's chances of winning. By how much obviously no one knows, but given Anderson's incredible offensive rating and .484 3-pt shooting, I'm guessing a good amount.

Going back to 2014: after starting 25-0, Syracuse lost at home to BC (#138 on kenpom at the time) and at home to Georgia Tech (#109). I don't know what % chance kenpom gave Syracuse to win prior to each game, but given Syracuse's home court advantage and considerably higher ranking, I'm guessing the kenpom %'s were similar to Virginia's %'s for the next few games.

Maybe the NFL analogy isn't perfect, but what I'm saying is that a two-game lead with eight games remaining by no means locks Virginia in as the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, especially given the injury to their most efficient offensive player.

[Wahoo2000]

I just don't buy the premise that Virginia has a "90+% chance" of winning those games, because those percentages are based on results WITH Anderson. Without him, Virginia's offensive and defensive efficiency will suffer, thus decreasing the team's chances of winning. By how much obviously no one knows, but given Anderson's incredible offensive rating and .484 3-pt shooting, I'm guessing a good amount.

Going back to 2014: after starting 25-0, Syracuse lost at home to BC (#138 on kenpom at the time) and at home to Georgia Tech (#109). I don't know what % chance kenpom gave Syracuse to win prior to each game, but given Syracuse's home court advantage and considerably higher ranking, I'm guessing the kenpom %'s were similar to Virginia's %'s for the next few games.

Maybe the NFL analogy isn't perfect, but what I'm saying is that a two-game lead with eight games remaining by no means locks Virginia in as the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, especially given the injury to their most efficient offensive player.

Anderson is a key member of our team, but he was absolutely OUT OF THIS WORLD in the nonconference season. He's been solid, but not GREAT since conference play began, and offensively has really been struggling in his last 6 games - 17-52 from the field (32.7%) & 7-25 from 3 (28%). The key will be more about replacing what he brings from a defensive standpoint, not as much the offense.

I'm almost positive we'll drop either the game at NCSU Wednesday OR the finale at Louisville. Maybe even both. I don't think we'll lose outside of those though. If there's one thing Bennett's teams have been since the middle of last year, it's consistent. We don't have those "WTF" games where you drop one to poor competition. (42-4 in that stretch. 2 losses to Duke, 1 vs MSU in the tourney, and one in OT @MD when we already had the ACC tourney 1 seed locked last year)

Even without Anderson, I really don't see us losing more than 2 games the rest of the way. Can Duke win out? Certainly, but I don't think it's likely that Duke will win out AND we'll drop 2 more. It doesn't really matter either way though. Since December, I've felt like Duke and UVA were a solid notch above Louisville, Notre Dame, and UNC. Pretty sure those two will be 1/2 seeds in the conference tourney.

[CDu]

I just don't buy the premise that Virginia has a "90+% chance" of winning those games, because those percentages are based on results WITH Anderson. Without him, Virginia's offensive and defensive efficiency will suffer, thus decreasing the team's chances of winning. By how much obviously no one knows, but given Anderson's incredible offensive rating and .484 3-pt shooting, I'm guessing a good amount.

Going back to 2014: after starting 25-0, Syracuse lost at home to BC (#138 on kenpom at the time) and at home to Georgia Tech (#109). I don't know what % chance kenpom gave Syracuse to win prior to each game, but given Syracuse's home court advantage and considerably higher ranking, I'm guessing the kenpom %'s were similar to Virginia's %'s for the next few games.

Maybe the NFL analogy isn't perfect, but what I'm saying is that a two-game lead with eight games remaining by no means locks Virginia in as the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, especially given the injury to their most efficient offensive player.

I just don't think you are assessing the probabilities well. For us to get the 1 seed, we have to win out AND UVa must lose twice. Considering that we have three tougher games than UVa's second-toughest, I think us winning out is far from 100% (it is probably not all that close to 50%). And I would say that UVa losing 2 is at best 50/50. So we are talking a less than 25% chance (probably substantially less).

Is it possible? Sure. But I would call it highly unlikely.

[wk2109]

Anderson is a key member of our team, but he was absolutely OUT OF THIS WORLD in the nonconference season. He's been solid, but not GREAT since conference play began, and offensively has really been struggling in his last 6 games - 17-52 from the field (32.7%) & 7-25 from 3 (28%). The key will be more about replacing what he brings from a defensive standpoint, not as much the offense.

I'm almost positive we'll drop either the game at NCSU Wednesday OR the finale at Louisville. Maybe even both. I don't think we'll lose outside of those though. If there's one thing Bennett's teams have been since the middle of last year, it's consistent. We don't have those "WTF" games where you drop one to poor competition. (42-4 in that stretch. 2 losses to Duke, 1 vs MSU in the tourney, and one in OT @MD when we already had the ACC tourney 1 seed locked last year)

Even without Anderson, I really don't see us losing more than 2 games the rest of the way. Can Duke win out? Certainly, but I don't think it's likely that Duke will win out AND we'll drop 2 more. It doesn't really matter either way though. Since December, I've felt like Duke and UVA were a solid notch above Louisville, Notre Dame, and UNC. Pretty sure those two will be 1/2 seeds in the conference tourney.

I just don't think you are assessing the probabilities well. For us to get the 1 seed, we have to win out AND UVa must lose twice. Considering that we have three tougher games than UVa's second-toughest, I think us winning out is far from 100% (it is probably not all that close to 50%). And I would say that UVa losing 2 is at best 50/50. So we are talking a less than 25% chance (probably substantially less).

Is it possible? Sure. But I would call it highly unlikely.

I hear what you're both saying -- perhaps I just need to take the easy way out and respond with a "well that's just how I feel." I just think UVA was getting too much credit for its 19-0 start, which is why I keep bringing up Syracuse and its 25-0 start. A perfect record in February (or on January 31 before the Duke game, in UVA's case) does not a great team make.

Losing a key player, especially in the middle of the season, is a big deal. Duke fans should understand that better than anyone. Maybe UVA will just keep trucking on without Anderson, but more likely than not there will be a period of adjustment, at least that's what I'm expecting. That's why I think there will be an unexpected slip-up or two, even though I do acknowledge the point about UVA not having "WTF" games.

As far as Duke's schedule goes, I really think there's a good chance that Duke can run the table in February (can't put a number on it but better than 50%). The game @UNC is really the only remaining game that gives me some concern, but if Duke can beat UW, UVA and UL on the road, why not UNC too?

[Olympic Fan]

With tonight's win in Tallahassee, Duke ties UNC for third place in the standings (both 8-3) .. one-half game behind Notre Dame (9-3) in second.

With seven ACC games remaining -- four vs. UNC and Syracuse -- much too early to be making plans for Greensboro, but a top four seed definitely looks a lot better than it did a couple of weeks ago.

[jv001]

Last night, our own Jay Williams predicted Virginia will not win the regular season. He didn't comment on how that takes place. He did comment earlier, Virginia will miss Anderson more than people think. But what does Jay, know, he took Virginia over Duke and was wrong on that occasion as well. GoDuke!

[SCMatt33]

With tonight's win in Tallahassee, Duke ties UNC for third place in the standings (both 8-3) .. one-half game behind Notre Dame (9-3) in second.

With seven ACC games remaining -- four vs. UNC and Syracuse -- much too early to be making plans for Greensboro, but a top four seed definitely looks a lot better than it did a couple of weeks ago.

Certainly better, but not out of the woods at all. Everyone in the top 5 had a front loaded schedule. There are only 4 games left that pit two top 5 teams against each other (two Duke-UNC, ND@Louisville, and UVA@Louiville). If you look at the bottom 5, everyone in the top 5 has at least two games against them left, including UVA with 4. I see no schedule advantage for Duke in there at all. All the work Duke has done to pull back even with everyone is certainly a big part of making our outlook better, but still lots of work to do.

[Olympic Fan]

Wednesday night's games virtually guarantees that Duke will end up with a top four seed (and a bye into Thursday's quarterfinal round).

With Duke beating UNC and Syracuse beating Louisville, Duke now has a two-game cushion over the two teams tied for fourth (actually it's three teams, but Syracuse is out of the tourney so they don't matter). Not only does Duke have a two game edge, but the Devils have the tiebreaker over UNC and Louisville, so it would take three Duke losses in the final five games to give either team a chance.

The top of the standings:

Virginia 12-1
Notre Dame 11-3
Duke 10-3
Louisville 8-5
UNC 8-5
Syracuse 8-5

Duke wins almost every conceivable tiebreaker with every team on that list (even if UNC gets a split by winning in Chapel Hill).

I'm still not giving up the regular season title ... Virginia has three loseable games left -- at Wake (which they just beat by on in C'ville), at Syracuse and at Louisville. They won't lose all three, but until Duke loses again, there is still hope.

But the second seed is a really good shot -- since we have the tiebreaker over Notre Dame and at least the third seed is a virtual lock.

Big advantage to get the third seed -- the quarterfinal game is likely to be somebody like NC State or Miami (and I'd like to play an inferior team that beat us earlier)... the fourth seed -- either UNC or Louisville -- is likely to play the other one in the quarters.

[uh_no]

Wednesday night's games virtually guarantees that Duke will end up with a top four seed (and a bye into Thursday's quarterfinal round).

With Duke beating UNC and Syracuse beating Louisville, Duke now has a two-game cushion over the two teams tied for fourth (actually it's three teams, but Syracuse is out of the tourney so they don't matter). Not only does Duke have a two game edge, but the Devils have the tiebreaker over UNC and Louisville, so it would take three Duke losses in the final five games to give either team a chance.

The top of the standings:

Virginia 12-1
Notre Dame 11-3
Duke 10-3
Louisville 8-5
UNC 8-5
Syracuse 8-5

Duke wins almost every conceivable tiebreaker with every team on that list (even if UNC gets a split by winning in Chapel Hill).

I'm still not giving up the regular season title ... Virginia has three loseable games left -- at Wake (which they just beat by on in C'ville), at Syracuse and at Louisville. They won't lose all three, but until Duke loses again, there is still hope.

But the second seed is a really good shot -- since we have the tiebreaker over Notre Dame and at least the third seed is a virtual lock.

Big advantage to get the third seed -- the quarterfinal game is likely to be somebody like NC State or Miami (and I'd like to play an inferior team that beat us earlier)... the fourth seed -- either UNC or Louisville -- is likely to play the other one in the quarters.

FWIW duke also has the tiebreaker over ND.

[budwom]

Channeling my inner oldfartness here, the dilution factor of the ACC has me incredibly unexcited about the ACC Tournament. In short, I kind of wish we weren't
playing in it. With a roster of eight healthy souls, we don't need another injury, and no matter how much zone we play, three games in three days really isn't
what we need. Yeah, I hope we win, but would rather have the guys just play a game, or perhaps two, and then rest up for the tournament that really matters.
Now get off my lawn!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Channeling my inner oldfartness here, the dilution factor of the ACC has me incredibly unexcited about the ACC Tournament. In short, I kind of wish we weren't
playing in it. With a roster of eight healthy souls, we don't need another injury, and no matter how much zone we play, three games in three days really isn't
what we need. Yeah, I hope we win, but would rather have the guys just play a game, or perhaps two, and then rest up for the tournament that really matters.
Now get off my lawn!

Why not try to win both, you can learn just as much by winning than by losing and resting. With the championship game on Saturday now, we will have at least 5 days of rest before our first round match up against hopefully a 16 seed. I think winning the ACC Tournament and getting a 1 seed is more important to this team than rest, barring an injury of course. With three freshman playing key roles they are used to playing 3 games in 3 days, if not 3 games in 1 day like in AAU ball. After all, these guys are young studs who we only get for a season so lets use up all the gas in that tank before they leave us for the NBA.

[Reilly]

Channeling my inner oldfartness here, the dilution factor of the ACC has me incredibly unexcited about the ACC Tournament. In short, I kind of wish we weren't
playing in it. With a roster of eight healthy souls, we don't need another injury, and no matter how much zone we play, three games in three days really isn't
what we need. Yeah, I hope we win, but would rather have the guys just play a game, or perhaps two, and then rest up for the tournament that really matters.
Now get off my lawn!

If you're saying the ACC Tourney is not as compelling or exciting with all the expansion, I agree with you 100%. Think how cool it would've been for Duke and UVa to be meeting for the third time potentially this year.

If you're saying we need, say, six days of rest (Friday-Wed) before our first NCAA game the following Thurs against a team we will be double digit favorites against, as opposed to four days rest (Sun-Wed) against the same weaker opponent, I don't buy it. And I don't think playing Friday and Saturday in the ACCs is going to have some huge hangover effect the next weekend in the NCAAs.

[SCMatt33]

I think more importantly, Duke would likely have to lose three more games to even drop out of the top three (I haven't gone through every three and four team tie-breaking scenario, but it looks good for Duke). That keeps Duke out of that 4-5 quarterfinal game. Even the 4 seed will likely have to go through 3 of the other four tourney locks to win the thing, and that is daunting. The top three will likely each get a bubble team in the quartefinal, then two of the top five to finish it. Of coarse, those bubble teams will be laying it all out there, but I'd still rather have one of them over UNC or Louisville

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm still not giving up the regular season title ... Virginia has three loseable games left -- at Wake (which they just beat by on in C'ville), at Syracuse and at Louisville. They won't lose all three, but until Duke loses again, there is still hope.

Thanks Olympic Fan for the analysis. Good stuff.

I have conceded the Reg ACC Championship to UVa. And it's not cus I think the field will lose a few more games. Rather, UVa is the best coached team in the ACC. They aren't going to lose gimmies (unlike every other ACC team this season). Without Anderson, they aren't as good, but they make up for it with their insanely effective defense and "boring" offense.

UVa has the best body of work of any ACC team thus far. They are the most consistent ACC team. But I think Duke is much more talented with so many other weapons. Right now, I'd take Duke in any one-on-one. But Duke has come a long way since the Miami games. UVa has been steady since.

So, in conclusion, UVa has been awesome during the whole ACC and absolutely deserves the ACC Reg title when they get it. But my money is on Duke to win the ACC Tourney. They are just the better team right now.

[CDu]

I think more importantly, Duke would likely have to lose three more games to even drop out of the top three (I haven't gone through every three and four team tie-breaking scenario, but it looks good for Duke). That keeps Duke out of that 4-5 quarterfinal game. Even the 4 seed will likely have to go through 3 of the other four tourney locks to win the thing, and that is daunting. The top three will likely each get a bubble team in the quartefinal, then two of the top five to finish it. Of coarse, those bubble teams will be laying it all out there, but I'd still rather have one of them over UNC or Louisville

Not "likely". Duke would definitely have to lose 3 more games, as we currently hold the tiebreakers over all of Syracuse, UNC, and Louisville. Each of the m has two losses to the others (the most we could get), and our record against UVa is best.