ACC tournament seeding

[akg4y]

UVA's offensive efficiency was top 5 much of the year, and was still top 10 when Anderson went down. It's been so inefficient since then that it dropped all the way to 31.

It has improved the last 2 games as we have learned to play without Anderson. We had 2 of our worst shooting games in the past 3 years in the 2 games following Anderson's injury. Shots have started to fall again, and our OE is improving. In the end, it will hopefully help us in the ACC T and NCAA T with some depth and confidence for the freshman. Wilkins looks like an everygame starter almost at this point. He cant replace Anderson but man can that boy defend and rebound.

[akg4y]

#1-2
#1 UVA (15-1) - @Cuse, @ Lou W,W (17-1)
#2 Duke (13-3) - WF, @UNC W,W (15-3)

#3
#3 ND (12-4) - @Lou, Clem W,W (14-4)
#5 Lou (11-5) - ND, UVA L,L (11-7)
#4 UNC (10-6) - @GT, Duke W,L (11-7) - UNC most likely will have tiebreaker over Lou b/c of win over Cuse (unless Cuse doesn't count, then Lou has tiebreaker over Pitt... does anyone know?)
Cuse (9-7) - UVA, @NCST L,L (9-9) - OUT

#6-10
#7 Pitt (8-7) - @Wake, Mia, @FSU W,L,W (10-8)
#8Mia (8-8) - @Pitt, @VT W,L (9-9)
#6 NC St (8-8) - @Clem, Cuse W,W (10-8)
#9 Clem (8-8) - NCST, @ND L,L (8-10) - I think Clemson has the tiebreaker over FSU with wins over Cuse & Pitt
#10 FSU (7-10) - Pitt L (7-11)

#11
Wake (4-11) - Pitt, @Duke, @BC L,L,W (5-11)

#12
GT (3-14) - UNC L (3-15)

#13-14
#14 BC (2-14) - @VT, Wake L,L (2-15)
#13 VT (1-14) - BC, Mia W,W (3-14) - Winner of BC/VT game has tiebreaker.

1-3:
UVA might lose 1 but 2 is unlikely.
Duke likely wins both, if they lose to UNC it doesn't matter for seeding as they have the tiebreaker over ND.
ND may lose 1 but I doubt they lose 2, and I doubt Lou wins both.

4-5 is just a matter of if Lou or UNC can pull an upset, Im betting no, so UNC gets the #4.

#12 is basically set with GT
#13-14 I think VT beats BC given how they have been playing, and I doubt BC upsets Wake, but possible.


Matchups:
2 seed bracket:
BC-Wake winner plays NCST. Winner plays ND
Pitt-FSU winner plays Duke

1 seed bracket:
GT-VT winner plays Lou, winner plays UNC
Mia-Clemson winner plays UVA

[CDu]

UVA's offense is definitely not horrible, unless you try to extrapolate data from their VT game. It was their second worst offensive performance of the year. By th same token, the VT game was easily Duke worst defensive performance of the year (both according to KenPom). It's pretty silly on either end for people (not so much here, but in other threads) to make declarative statements based on the worst game of the year.

Now, since I just looked at the top of the page and realized that this is the ACC seeding thread, a Louisville loss would (nearly) clinch at least the three seed for Duke in Greensboro. Technically if they lost today, a two way tie would be in Lousivilles favor as they'd have to beat ND and UVA to get there, matching us with 1-0 against UVA and going 1-0 against ND to top our 1-1. Still rooting for (EDIT: Lousiville) though, as it hurts Carolina's hunt for a double bye.

Louisville has already lost a game to UVa. More importantly, they lost head-to-head against us. They can't win a tiebreaker with us.

[SCMatt33]

Louisville has already lost a game to UVa. More importantly, they lost head-to-head against us. They can't win a tiebreaker with us.

Forgot about that first game with UVA. On the other point, I have simply chosen to ignore that silly first tiebreaker. Head to head, who need that?

[bob blue devil]

kenpom has all of the acc's top 10 team's finishing the season 1-1...

[akg4y]

UPDATED 3/1/15

#1-2
#1 UVA (15-1) - @Cuse, @ Lou W,W (17-1)
#2 Duke (13-3) - WF, @UNC W,W (15-3)

#3
#3 ND (12-4) - @Lou, Clem W,W (14-4)
#5 Lou (11-5) - ND, UVA L,L (11-7)
#4 UNC (10-6) - @GT, Duke W,L (11-7) - UNC most likely will have tiebreaker over Lou b/c of win over Cuse (unless Cuse doesn't count, then Lou has tiebreaker over Pitt... does anyone know?)
Cuse (9-7) - UVA, @NCST L,L (9-9) - OUT

#6-10
#8 Pitt (8-8) - Mia, @FSU L,W (9-9)
#7Mia (8-8) - @Pitt, @VT W,L (9-9)
#6 NC St (8-8) - @Clem, Cuse W,W (10-8)
#9 Clem (8-8) - NCST, @ND L,L (8-10) - I think Clemson has the tiebreaker over FSU with wins over Cuse & Pitt
#10 FSU (7-10) - Pitt L (7-11)

#11
Wake (5-11) - @Duke, @BC L,W (6-12)

#12
GT (3-14) - UNC L (3-15)

#13-14
#14 BC (2-14) - @VT, Wake L,L (2-15)
#13 VT (1-14) - BC, Mia W,W (3-14) - Winner of BC/VT game has tiebreaker.

1-3:
UVA might lose 1 but 2 is unlikely.
Duke likely wins both, if they lose to UNC it doesn't matter for seeding as they have the tiebreaker over ND.
ND may lose 1 but I doubt they lose 2, and I doubt Lou wins both.

4-5 is just a matter of if Lou or UNC can pull an upset, Im betting no, so UNC gets the #4.

#12 is basically set with GT
#13-14 I think VT beats BC given how they have been playing, and I doubt BC upsets Wake, but possible.


Matchups:
2 seed bracket:
BC-Wake winner plays NCST. Winner plays ND
Mia-FSU winner plays Duke

1 seed bracket:
GT-VT winner plays Lou, winner plays UNC
Pitt-Clemson winner plays UVA

[Olympic Fan]

UPDATED 3/1/15

#1-2
#1 UVA (15-1) - @Cuse, @ Lou W,W (17-1)
#2 Duke (13-3) - WF, @UNC W,W (15-3)

#3
#3 ND (12-4) - @Lou, Clem W,W (14-4)
#5 Lou (11-5) - ND, UVA L,L (11-7)
#4 UNC (10-6) - @GT, Duke W,L (11-7) - UNC most likely will have tiebreaker over Lou b/c of win over Cuse (unless Cuse doesn't count, then Lou has tiebreaker over Pitt... does anyone know?)
Cuse (9-7) - UVA, @NCST L,L (9-9) - OUT

Syracuse definitely does count for tiebreaking purposes ...

[akg4y]

UPDATED 3/1/15

#1-2
#1 UVA (16-1) - @Lou W (17-1)
#2 Duke (13-3) - WF, @UNC W,W (15-3)

#3
#3 ND (12-4) - @Lou, Clem W,W (14-4)
#5 Lou (11-5) - ND, UVA L,L (11-7)
#4 UNC (10-6) - @GT, Duke W,L (11-7)

Cuse (9-8) - @NCST L (9-9) - OUT

#6-10
#8 Pitt (8-8) - Mia, @FSU L,W (9-9)
#7 Mia (8-8) - @Pitt, @VT W,W (10-8)
#6 NC St (8-8) - @Clem, Cuse W,W (10-8)
#9 Clem (8-8) - NCST, @ND L,L (8-10) - I think Clemson has the tiebreaker over FSU with wins over Cuse & Pitt
#10 FSU (7-10) - Pitt L (7-11)

#11
Wake (5-11) - @Duke, @BC L,W (6-12)

#12
GT (3-14) - UNC L (3-15)

#13-14
#13 BC (3-14) - Wake L (3-14)
#14 VT (1-15) - Mia L (1-16)

1-2: Set
3: Almost set as ND
4-5 is just a matter of if Lou or UNC can pull an upset, Im betting no, so UNC gets the #4.
6-10 Still up in the air.
11-14: Set unless BC beats Wake.


Matchups:
2 seed bracket:
VT-Wake winner plays NCST. Winner plays ND
Mia-FSU winner plays Duke

1 seed bracket:
GT-BC winner plays Lou, winner plays UNC
Pitt-Clemson winner plays UVA

[OldPhiKap]

UPDATED 3/1/15

#1-2
#1 UVA (16-1) - @Lou W (17-1)
#2 Duke (13-3) - WF, @UNC W,W (15-3)

#3
#3 ND (12-4) - @Lou, Clem W,W (14-4)
#5 Lou (11-5) - ND, UVA L,L (11-7)
#4 UNC (10-6) - @GT, Duke W,L (11-7)

Cuse (9-8) - @NCST L (9-9) - OUT

#6-10
#8 Pitt (8-8) - Mia, @FSU L,W (9-9)
#7 Mia (8-8) - @Pitt, @VT W,W (10-8)
#6 NC St (8-8) - @Clem, Cuse W,W (10-8)
#9 Clem (8-8) - NCST, @ND L,L (8-10) - I think Clemson has the tiebreaker over FSU with wins over Cuse & Pitt
#10 FSU (7-10) - Pitt L (7-11)

#11
Wake (5-11) - @Duke, @BC L,W (6-12)

#12
GT (3-14) - UNC L (3-15)

#13-14
#13 BC (3-14) - Wake L (3-14)
#14 VT (1-15) - Mia L (1-16)

1-2: Set
3: Almost set as ND
4-5 is just a matter of if Lou or UNC can pull an upset, Im betting no, so UNC gets the #4.
6-10 Still up in the air.
11-14: Set unless BC beats Wake.


Matchups:
2 seed bracket:
VT-Wake winner plays NCST. Winner plays ND
Mia-FSU winner plays Duke

1 seed bracket:
GT-BC winner plays Lou, winner plays UNC
Pitt-Clemson winner plays UVA

We are only set with a win tomorrow, correct?

[Olympic Fan]

We are only set with a win tomorrow, correct?

No. 1 seed is now set -- Virginia locked it up Monday night

Duke and Notre Dame are still vying for 2-3. Duke gets it with one more win (Wednesday night vs. Wake?) or one more Notre Dame loss.

Louisville and UNC are vying for the No. 4-5 spot. Louisville has a one game lead, but the tiebreakers are muddled. They are 1-1 head-to-head, but with Louisville meeting Virginia Saturday and UNC facing Duke (both at home), they tiebreaker could change a lot. If both lose Sunday and they tie (which would mean a UNC win at Georgia Tech and a Louisville loss at home to Notre Dame), then it's a real mess. Both would be winless against Virginia, Duke and Notre Dame; 1-1 against each other. UNC has a better record against Syracuse (which DOES count for tiebreaker purposes), BUT it's not clear 'Cuse finishes sixth ... they are 9-8 at the moment and could end up tied or even behind any of the four teams at 8-8.

We've just got to wait on that one.

And we have to wait on the teams vying for spots 6-9. It' going to be Pitt, NC State, Miami and Clemson in some order, although FSU (at 7-10) could sneak in at the bottom of that list.

Again, too many possibilities for me to figure out.

Absolutely certain of the bottom four -- the teams that play Tuesday -- although the order could change. Right now, it looks like No. 11 Wake Forest, No. 12-13 BC or Georgia Tech and No. 14 Virginia Tech.

[Seattle Hoo]

I'm sorry this is not going to really add anything, but man am I excited for this ACC Tournament. Not just because of the obvious reason, but I felt it when you were talking about the Tuesday games. Even the Tuesday games are going to be worth watching! Buzz Williams has Virginia Tech playing with so much confidence for a last place team, and they can be fun to watch. I loved Devin Wilson's game last year, and the freshmen are talented players. Olivier Hanlan is a marvelous player who is worth watching all by himself. Wake Forest is going to be good, you can see it, and they have some good talent. Fun to watch. Then Georgia Tech keeps me riveted to the edge of my seat wondering, "When and in what crazily inspired way are they going to screw this game up?!"

The winners of Tuesday's games will have a real, honest chance to win on Wednesday. We go from two games to four, and it's going to be a bloodbath between 8 teams that are pretty much evenly matched, with at least half of those teams having a legitimate shot at a Bubble Berth if they can make it to Thursday and pull off an upset then. Then on Thursday, the real tournament starts when the big boys and Notre Dame and #4 jump into the action, everybody with something to play for. Two games Friday followed by PRIME TIME Saturday Night Fight! Sorry baby, no Date Night this weekend! Don't care if that means no nookie for me for a couple days, how often do my Hoos have a chance to win back-to-back ACC Tournament Championships over the Ookies? (Please note, there is no "O" in Virginia Cavaliers... No "D" either, oddly enough).

Thanks to WatchESPN, my firm's wifi, and no monitoring of wifi traffic, I won't have to miss a minute of it!

[SCMatt33]

With Louisville's loss tonight, the 4-5 situation is a lot clearer. ND with their 13th win is now locked into the top 3, so they're no longer a factor. Louisville and UNC are both 11-6, but the tiebreaker depends entirely on Louisville's result with UVA. If Louisville wins, they get the tiebreaker, if not, UNC gets it by beating Syracuse, so UNC actually has no control of it's seed anymore. Barring literally the biggest collapse in NCAA history, Duke will lock in the two seed tonight, rendering Saturday's game meaningless in terms of ACCT seeding.

[CDu]

With Louisville's loss tonight, the 4-5 situation is a lot clearer. ND with their 13th win is now locked into the top 3, so they're no longer a factor. Louisville and UNC are both 11-6, but the tiebreaker depends entirely on Louisville's result with UVA. If Louisville wins, they get the tiebreaker, if not, UNC gets it by beating Syracuse, so UNC actually has no control of it's seed anymore. Barring literally the biggest collapse in NCAA history, Duke will lock in the two seed tonight, rendering Saturday's game meaningless in terms of ACCT seeding.

Have to assume that we win tonight. So the top 3 will be set. As you said, 4 and 5 come down to the UVa/Louisville game (the Duke/UNC game makes no difference).

[Wahoo2000]

Something else of semi-note: Miami beating Pitt tonight has virtually assured NC State and Miami will both be on the bottom half of the bracket (as likely Duke & ND quarterfinal opponents). As a UVA fan, I'm actually pretty relieved - I think those two are SIGNIFICANTLY more dangerous than any of Clemson, Pitt, or FSU. Hoping they can give the 2 and 3 seeds VERY tough quarters - should we (UVA) get to the final, I'd love to see an opponent coming off of 2 grueling games hopefully with legs a little heavy for a 3pt barrage (probably our biggest weakness defensively).

[SCMatt33]

Miami's win over Pitt has also given a bit of clarity to the race for 6-10. Barring a loss at VT combined with and NC State win vs. Syracuse, Miami will have the 6 seed. They swept State, Pitt, and Clemson, and therefore win all tiebreakers at 9-9 or at 10-8 with State. State, unless they get the 6 seed via the previously described scenario, will be the 7 seed as they beat Pitt, and hold the tiebreaker with Clemson via their Duke win. That same Duke win gives them the win in a 3 way tiebreaker as Pitt gets dropped for having been swept with the others at 2-1. These scenarios are a bit unlikely as Clemson would have to win in South Bend to make them possible.

For 8-10, much is riding on the Pitt-FSU game in Tallahassee. Should Pitt win, they will be in the 8-9 game with the exact seed determined by Clemson's result Saturday. Should FSU win, Pitt will drop all the way to the 10 seed and have to play a Tuesday game (assuming a Clemson loss), by losing the three way tiebreaker (Pitt 1-2, FSU 2-2, CLEM 2-1 vs. each other). If Clemson wins, Pitt will win the head to head with FSU via their ND win.

For Duke, that all means that NC State is most likely the 7 seed with a small chance of Miami. Should the 7 seed not make it to the quarters, it will most likely be at the hands of Pitt or FSU depending on who loses their match-up Saturday.

[gofurman]

Miami's win over Pitt has also given a bit of clarity to the race for 6-10. Barring a loss at VT combined with and NC State win vs. Syracuse, Miami will have the 6 seed. They swept State, Pitt, and Clemson, and therefore win all tiebreakers at 9-9 or at 10-8 with State. State, unless they get the 6 seed via the previously described scenario, will be the 7 seed as they beat Pitt, and hold the tiebreaker with Clemson via their Duke win. That same Duke win gives them the win in a 3 way tiebreaker as Pitt gets dropped for having been swept with the others at 2-1. These scenarios are a bit unlikely as Clemson would have to win in South Bend to make them possible.

For 8-10, much is riding on the Pitt-FSU game in Tallahassee. Should Pitt win, they will be in the 8-9 game with the exact seed determined by Clemson's result Saturday. Should FSU win, Pitt will drop all the way to the 10 seed and have to play a Tuesday game (assuming a Clemson loss), by losing the three way tiebreaker (Pitt 1-2, FSU 2-2, CLEM 2-1 vs. each other). If Clemson wins, Pitt will win the head to head with FSU via their ND win.

For Duke, that all means that NC State is most likely the 7 seed with a small chance of Miami. Should the 7 seed not make it to the quarters, it will most likely be at the hands of Pitt or FSU depending on who loses their match-up Saturday.

Looks like we play who I didn't want to. Miami or state? Is this right? The 7.10 matchup is between the two teams from mid-tier who beat us? On other hand, it's good practice for NCAA - quick guards of Miami. We neeeeed to know how to defend that

[Wahoo2000]

Miami's win over Pitt has also given a bit of clarity to the race for 6-10. Barring a loss at VT combined with and NC State win vs. Syracuse, Miami will have the 6 seed. They swept State, Pitt, and Clemson, and therefore win all tiebreakers at 9-9 or at 10-8 with State. State, unless they get the 6 seed via the previously described scenario, will be the 7 seed as they beat Pitt, and hold the tiebreaker with Clemson via their Duke win. That same Duke win gives them the win in a 3 way tiebreaker as Pitt gets dropped for having been swept with the others at 2-1. These scenarios are a bit unlikely as Clemson would have to win in South Bend to make them possible.

For 8-10, much is riding on the Pitt-FSU game in Tallahassee. Should Pitt win, they will be in the 8-9 game with the exact seed determined by Clemson's result Saturday. Should FSU win, Pitt will drop all the way to the 10 seed and have to play a Tuesday game (assuming a Clemson loss), by losing the three way tiebreaker (Pitt 1-2, FSU 2-2, CLEM 2-1 vs. each other). If Clemson wins, Pitt will win the head to head with FSU via their ND win.

For Duke, that all means that NC State is most likely the 7 seed with a small chance of Miami. Should the 7 seed not make it to the quarters, it will most likely be at the hands of Pitt or FSU depending on who loses their match-up Saturday.

Could be wrong on this, but I think FSU is locked at 10. If memory serves, procedure for the 3-way tiebreak is only followed to get a "winner" (Clemson in this case), and the "leftover" 2 teams are then evaluated head-to-head (putting Pitt over the top by virtue of their split head to head and tiebreaking win over ND). Man, that is weird, but that's how I remember it. Maybe the rule has changed?

[Wahoo2000]

Looks like we play who I didn't want to. Miami or state? Is this right? The 7.10 matchup is between the two teams from mid-tier who beat us? On other hand, it's good practice for NCAA - quick guards of Miami. We neeeeed to know how to defend that

I think you guys are waaaaaaay more likely to get State than Miami in the quarters. You could face Miami in the semis if they can beat ND though.

[SCMatt33]

Could be wrong on this, but I think FSU is locked at 10. If memory serves, procedure for the 3-way tiebreak is only followed to get a "winner" (Clemson in this case), and the "leftover" 2 teams are then evaluated head-to-head (putting Pitt over the top by virtue of their split head to head and tiebreaking win over ND). Man, that is weird, but that's how I remember it. Maybe the rule has changed?

I think that only happens if the three team tiebreaker produces a winner with the others still tied at the point which the "winner" was created. For example, If teams a, b, and c are tied, and all went 1-1 within the group, but team a beat the league champion and teams b and c both lost, it would then revert to the head to head for those two instead of continuing on with the three way tie breaker. In this case, because the first 3 way step produces a clear 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, those will be used.

Here's the complete three way rule from the this year's press release

a. The combined record of conference games between the tied teams involved will be compiled. Ties will be broken, and seedings assigned, based on the winning percentage of the combined conference records. The higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group is unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1; 1-0 is the same as 2-0; 2-0 is the same as 4-0; 2-1 is the same as 4-2; 1-0 is better than 1-1; 0-1 is the same as 0-2; 0-2 is the same as 0-4).

b. If procedure (a) fails to break the tie, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage by a higher winning percentage.

c. If the tie is broken by (a) or (b) regarding one or more teams, but three or more teams remain tied, then procedures (a) and (b) will be reapplied among those tied teams only.

d. If two teams remain tied, procedures (1) and (2) will be followed.

Note that procedures (1) and (2) refer to the two way tie-breaking rules. Based on step "a" Pitt, Clemson, and FSU would be seeded via the three way tiebreaker and it wouldn't revert back to the two way procedure.

[SCMatt33]

I have a slight correction to make on the 4-5 scenarios. I said earlier that it only depends on Louisville's result and that's not quite right. If both finish tied at 11-7 (both lose Saturday), it is possible for Louisville to get the tiebreaker, but only if State, Miami, and Pitt all win. That would create a scenario with State and Miami tied for 6th. Since both teams went 2-1 against that group, you move on to the group tied for 8th. That group would be Syracuse, Pitt, and possibly Clemson, but both are 1-0 vs Clemson rendering Clemson's involvement meaningless either way. Lousiville is 2-1 vs. Pitt and Syracuse, while UNC is only 1-1, giving Louisville the tiebreak.