2016 Presidential Race

[duke79]

The Democrats have a substantial Electoral College advantage going in. Clinton's advantages are highly likely to result in her election, if the following things hold:

• Hispanics and African-Americans enthusiastically support her, thus angrily overcoming what they see as Republican efforts at voter suppression
• Clinton is a calm, cool, domestic and foreign policy expert in debates; and steely in calling Trump out on selected outrages
• Most of Bernie's voters see her as vastly preferable, even if coming to this view requires nose-holding
• The Democratic ground game is as dependable as in the last 2 Presidential elections
• Reputable Republican leaders and columnists, including especially Republican foreign policy establishment, counsel voting for Clinton (with pointed detail, and while encouraging support for Republican candidates down ballot)
• Nominee Trump continues to say outrageous/wacky things, raising further questions among independents and suburban Republican women about his stability, his lack of qualifications

Now, Trump may well make all common electoral assumptions irrelevant. He may be immune to all historical precedent. But that's the only way he will win. Maybe that's exactly what will happen, and he will bring in so many new voters and thus put into play several Rust Belt states. Not impossible, just unlikely.

So the logical question is, how can she possibly lose? She can, but the odds of winning are in her favor.



I think Kasich, Cruz, and some of the other 2016 Republican candidates assume it's likely Trump loses, and so will already have easily convinced themselves that their party will come to its senses and nominate one of them in 2020 (Kasich, Cruz, Rubio, Walker, Fiorina, others). Kasich is probably calculating just now on how long he can effectively continue his case for 2020.



Governor Rick Scott or Governor Chris Christie.

I think you're exactly right in your analysis. Hilary SHOULD win (easily, IMHO) IF all of your above qualifications come true. I haven't seen the latest odds on the betting forums but I assume DT is a long-shot at this point in time. I guess the one "fly in the ointment" is that almost everyone has underestimated DT's appeal to (at least the Republican) voters so far. Can he expand this appeal to a much wider range of the electorate? I don't think he's stupid but it may be too late to pivot successfully to attract a high enough percentage of those groups that are not part of his natural base and that he will need to win the general election. One way or the other, it's going to be a VERY ugly election season.

[gumbomoop]

Do you truly believe more than 1%, of those conservatives, would vote for HRC?

More than 1% of registered Republicans? Yes, I think more than 1% of such voters will split ballots, voting for Clinton at the top, Republicans down ballot. More than a few Republican women are deeply offended by Trump. Suburban Republican women are a key constituency in the I-4 corridor, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina cities.

[Troublemaker]

Do you truly believe more than 1%, of those conservatives, would vote for HRC?

Yes. For example, I've mentioned before that the neocons and their publications will end up backing her.

I think given a binary choice, Commentary will for sure endorse Hillary. The Weekly Standard is > 50% to endorse her. I think, given a binary choice, National Review is capable of endorsing Hillary as well but at < 50% chance.

[duke79]

CBB already quoted a pair of early posts on Trump. Here are some other fun ones.

"some entertainment for a while" may be the greatest understatement of the entire campaign!

LOL. Thank YOU for re-posting my (obviously) erroneous prediction last summer about Trump not lasting long in the campaign and just providing some "entertainment" until he imploded. Like many other journalists and political pundits and consultants, I admit I totally underestimated DT's appeal to a large enough segment of the Republican primary electorate to "win" (with 25 to 30%) many of the early primaries (when there were still many other candidates in the race) and to carry that momentum through to the end, after outlasting everybody else. In many ways, I think he ran a brilliant campaign while spending very little money. He certainly understood his "base" (my wife keeps asking...who is actually voting for him?) and how to appeal to them. Time will tell if he can translate his primary success to the general election. I'm guessing he will have a much harder time.

[OldPhiKap]

Do you have a preference on the type of Supreme Court nominee you would like to see?

Sure, And that's one of twenty issues in the blend for me.

FWIW, I think Merrick Garland is more than qualified and I would be happy with that appointment. You never know what you will get when they get up there, though, so it's all sort of buying a pig in a poke.

(A very honorable pig in a very dignified poke, mind you.)

[Troublemaker]

On PredictWise, Trump is currently 99% to win the R nomination, and Hillary is only 98% to win the D nomination.

I mean, it's pretty meaningless. They're your two nominees. But still a crazy sight to behold considering what we thought would happen with Trump back in June of last year.

[El_Diablo]

Kasich is out.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...html?adkey=bn

[gurufrisbee]

Do you truly believe more than 1%, of those conservatives, would vote for HRC?

WAY more.

The calls are starting to come from some conservatives that the Republicans better confirm Merrick Garland while they still have the chance.

Is that because the fear is that Trump can't beat HRC and HRC will put up Obama as the choice or the fear that Trump will put up someone really bad like that Apprentice lady Almond Roca or whatever her name was?

[gus]

Is that because the fear is that Trump can't beat HRC and HRC will put up Obama as the choice or the fear that Trump will put up someone really bad like that Apprentice lady Almond Roca or whatever her name was?

Yes.

[howardlander]

The calls are starting to come from some conservatives that the Republicans better confirm Merrick Garland while they still have the chance.

Why? I thought there was a principal at stake ...

Howard

[camion]

Why? I thought there was a principal at stake ...

Howard

It's pretty simple.

The principle in play is: Choose the option that gives your side the biggest advantage or the smallest disadvantage.

[Troublemaker]

Why? I thought there was a principal at stake ...

Howard

Sorry, had to.

[swood1000]

Kasich is out.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/04/politi...html?adkey=bn

That was sudden. He cancelled his planned appearance and went back to Ohio to drop out. He must have gotten the kind of phone call that one can't ignore.

[swood1000]

That was sudden. He cancelled his planned appearance and went back to Ohio to drop out. He must have gotten the kind of phone call that one can't ignore.

Either Trump offered him VP or Reince Priebus told him that Trump, as presumptive nominee, is being given the keys to the convention, is going to be allowed to call the shots, and that whatever chances Kasich might have had are now, without any question, toast.

[OldPhiKap]

Either Trump offered him VP or Reince Priebus told him that Trump, as presumptive nominee, is being given the keys to the convention, is going to be allowed to call the shots, and that whatever chances Kasich might have had are now, without any question, toast.

Or his major donor(s) said it's ovah. Which it is anyway.

[Troublemaker]

Either Trump offered him VP or Reince Priebus told him that Trump, as presumptive nominee, is being given the keys to the convention, is going to be allowed to call the shots, and that whatever chances Kasich might have had are now, without any question, toast.

Perhaps. Then again, perhaps Kasich was caught off-guard by Cruz's suspension last night and, in the heat of the moment decided to fight on, but after a sober night of reflection on where things stand, he --on his own-- decided that he has no realistic path here.

Or his major donor(s) said it's ovah. Which it is anyway.

Or this.

[El_Diablo]

Why? I thought there was a principal at stake ...

Howard

Oh, my sweet summer child...

[swood1000]

What would be the top three drawbacks to a Trump presidency?

[El_Diablo]

What would be the top three drawbacks to a Trump presidency?

Answering would clearly violate the forum's policy on PPB material. Why even ask it?

[swood1000]

Answering would clearly violate the forum's policy on PPB material.

Could the question be rephrased to make it permissible?