Other People's Pretend NCAA Brackets

[Olympic Fan]

I agree with you, but it's worth noting Kansas currently is #1 in the RPI. As hurleyfor3 said, if everyone wins out (except let's say UVa loses one more) it's probably Gonzaga who drops to #2, not Duke or Kansas or Virginia.

And Duke was No. 1 in the RPI in 2013 when Duke got a No. 2 seed -- in the same bracket as the best No. 1.

The fact is that Kansas doesn't have as strong as resume as Duke ... and that was before tonight's loss to West Virginia.

But that said, I'd rather see Kansas get a No. 1 seed than Gonzaga.

I don't know where the myth of Gonzaga has come from. They are overseeded every year because they play a handful of tough teams early (and usually lose), then beat up on a very weak mid-major conference.

You'd think that sooner or later their NCAA failures would puncture the myth -- they made an Elite Eight run in 1999 under Don Monson and reached the Sweet 16 in Mark Few's first two years. But since 2001, they've gotten out of the first weekend once -- that's one Sweet 16 in the last 13 years.

This year's team has actually played two ranked teams -- beating SMU at home and losing at Arizona. They have played the nation's No. 94 schedule. They have seven top 100 wins (Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Villanova, Virginia and Wisconsin all have at least 13 top 100 wins) ... one in the top 25 (SMU, which is barely in the top 25). They haven't played a top 50 team since December ... and don't have one remaining.

And THAT is the resume of a No. 1 seed?

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

I think the committee will punish Gonzaga a bit this season for their failures in recent years. By punish I mean leaving them out of the discussion for a 1 seed. I think they are a lock to be a two, unless they lose. So that leaves UK, VA, DUKE, Wisconsin, Villanova, and KU and Arizona as possible 1 seeds. Only two teams on that list have wins over other possible 1 seeds. I don't see how you put Gonzaga ahead of Arizona in the West since Arizona beat them. This will all change in the next few weeks as teams get desperate, and teams start maneuvering for seeding. Uk and UVA are the only locks right now.

[TexHawk]

Kansas now has as many losses in conference as we do, a loss worse than any of ours, and two more total losses. And they lack the elite-tier wins we have (not to mention that our biggest wins are road wins). So I think the "regular season and conference champ" argument rings a bit hollow. Duke's resume is better. If both teams win out from here, Duke gets a 1 seed over Kansas.

Either way, if we win out, we are getting a 1 seed.

Certainly can't disagree now. My point was the theoretical, of which we will never know now.

Btw, anyone have a TV remote recommendation? I ruined mine after watching Juwan Staten take 4 steps on the winning layup, then watching Nathan Adrian legitimately tackle Wayne Selden on the easiest potential winning tip-in in the history of basketball.

[gam7]

I think the committee will punish Gonzaga a bit this season for their failures in recent years. By punish I mean leaving them out of the discussion for a 1 seed. I think they are a lock to be a two, unless they lose. So that leaves UK, VA, DUKE, Wisconsin, Villanova, and KU and Arizona as possible 1 seeds. Only two teams on that list have wins over other possible 1 seeds. I don't see how you put Gonzaga ahead of Arizona in the West since Arizona beat them. This will all change in the next few weeks as teams get desperate, and teams start maneuvering for seeding. Uk and UVA are the only locks right now.

That win was an OT win @ Arizona - not exactly dispositive. Far different from the impact of a game like, say, Notre Dame @ Duke. Gonzaga has more wins against RPI top 50 teams. Arizona has three losses to unranked, non-tournament teams; Gonzaga has none. They are comparably ranked in RPI and kenpom. Arizona has no road wins of particular note - though they do play @Utah in a couple weeks. A one-loss Gonzaga is virtual lock for a one-seed in my mind (and even if not, I would think they are definitely ahead of Arizona at this point in time).

[hurleyfor3]

That win was an OT win @ Arizona - not exactly dispositive. Far different from the impact of a game like, say, Notre Dame @ Duke. Gonzaga has more wins against RPI top 50 teams. Arizona has three losses to unranked, non-tournament teams; Gonzaga has none. They are comparably ranked in RPI and kenpom. Arizona has no road wins of particular note - though they do play @Utah in a couple weeks. A one-loss Gonzaga is virtual lock for a one-seed in my mind (and even if not, I would think they are definitely ahead of Arizona at this point in time).

You used "dispositive" but then blew it with "at this point in time". We need a "neither spork nor flame" neutral comment.

[gurufrisbee]

To me, Gonzaga isn't much different than Kentucky. Gonzaga has one more loss - barely. They both play in very weak conferences with no good teams in them at all. Kentucky played three good non conference games. Gonzaga played two or three. On Gonzaga's side, they did usually thump the mediocre teams they are constantly playing, while Kentucky is regularly getting scared by them about every third game. I don't know what the brackets and matchups will be but at this stage I'm a lot more comfortably picking Gonzaga to go deeper this year than Kentucky.

[Troublemaker]

The best opportunity for Gonzaga to lose again this season is tonight (ESPN2, 10pm ET) when they play at rival St. Mary's.

I don't usually root against the Zags, but I have to think if they lose tonight, they'd get bumped to the 2 seed line. Thus giving Duke a slightly bigger margin of error for a 1 seed.

[Wahoo2000]

To me, Gonzaga isn't much different than Kentucky. Gonzaga has one more loss - barely. They both play in very weak conferences with no good teams in them at all. Kentucky played three good non conference games. Gonzaga played two or three. On Gonzaga's side, they did usually thump the mediocre teams they are constantly playing, while Kentucky is regularly getting scared by them about every third game. I don't know what the brackets and matchups will be but at this stage I'm a lot more comfortably picking Gonzaga to go deeper this year than Kentucky.

I dislike Kentucky as much as the next guy, but this is just wrong. I know the SEC isn't totally awesome this year, but to compare it with the WCC is crazy-talk. Kentucky is regularly playing teams in the 30-60 range on kenpom, where the VAST bulk of Gonzaga's games are in the 100s and 200s. It's not close. At all. Not even a little bit. I'd also say absolutely stomping on Kansas, and handling UNC, Texas, and Louisville (all top 25 kenpom) is significantly better than Gonzaga's signature OOC results (loss @Arizona, win vs SMU, no other top 25 kenpom games).

If the Zags run the table, I give them a 1 seed only if 3 or more of UVA, Duke, 'Zona, Kansas, Wisconsin, & Nova lose 3 or more games between now and selection Sunday. If Gonzaga loses even once before the tourney, .00000001% chance they get a 1.

[gurufrisbee]

I dislike Kentucky as much as the next guy, but this is just wrong. I know the SEC isn't totally awesome this year, but to compare it with the WCC is crazy-talk. Kentucky is regularly playing teams in the 30-60 range on kenpom, where the VAST bulk of Gonzaga's games are in the 100s and 200s. It's not close. At all. Not even a little bit. I'd also say absolutely stomping on Kansas, and handling UNC, Texas, and Louisville (all top 25 kenpom) is significantly better than Gonzaga's signature OOC results (loss @Arizona, win vs SMU, no other top 25 kenpom games).

If the Zags run the table, I give them a 1 seed only if 3 or more of UVA, Duke, 'Zona, Kansas, Wisconsin, & Nova lose 3 or more games between now and selection Sunday. If Gonzaga loses even once before the tourney, .00000001% chance they get a 1.

I understand your position, but I will still disagree. I've watched many games in both the SEC and the WCC this year - no matter what some rankings say the eye test from first hand watching them shows there is very little difference at all. I would not be surprised at all if St Mary's or BYU was in the SEC this season if they finished 2nd. And Gonzaga blows them out. Almost all. Kentucky stinks and barely wins a third of the time.

I agree that if the Zags lose again they probably get a 2 seed. But I'll still be EASILY picking them to go as far or further than Kentucky.

[Wahoo2000]

I understand your position, but I will still disagree. I've watched many games in both the SEC and the WCC this year - no matter what some rankings say the eye test from first hand watching them shows there is very little difference at all. I would not be surprised at all if St Mary's or BYU was in the SEC this season if they finished 2nd. And Gonzaga blows them out. Almost all. Kentucky stinks and barely wins a third of the time.

I agree that if the Zags lose again they probably get a 2 seed. But I'll still be EASILY picking them to go as far or further than Kentucky.

Ah, the eye test. That's a tough metric for me to dispute. I'll agree to disagree (and secretly hope you turn out to be right - as I'd be much happier with a KY early exit from the tourney... I just think it's unlikely)

[gurufrisbee]

Ah, the eye test. That's a tough metric for me to dispute. I'll agree to disagree (and secretly hope you turn out to be right - as I'd be much happier with a KY early exit from the tourney... I just think it's unlikely)

True enough, but it's a lot more fun to actually watch the games and see real basketball than just to read someone else's charts and tables.

[CDu]

True enough, but it's a lot more fun to actually watch the games and see real basketball than just to read someone else's charts and tables.

I wouldn't call watching SEC basketball "fun."

[weezie]

Good grief this ucla @ AZ game is utterly awful. No way az deserves any 1seed.

[gurufrisbee]

I wouldn't call watching SEC basketball "fun."

Good distinction. Watching college basketball is fun. But I do 95% of that on the computer without cable for the TV, so my choices to watch on the TV are limited - and unfortunately CBS still thinks SEC basketball is worth showing on there.

[Kedsy]

I understand your position, but I will still disagree. I've watched many games in both the SEC and the WCC this year - no matter what some rankings say the eye test from first hand watching them shows there is very little difference at all. I would not be surprised at all if St Mary's or BYU was in the SEC this season if they finished 2nd. And Gonzaga blows them out. Almost all. Kentucky stinks and barely wins a third of the time.

First of all, let me ask -- please define "many," as in how many games have you watched of each SEC team and each WCC team?

Unfortunately for me, I don't have the benefit of using your eyes, but looking at Pomeroy your claim sounds fairly ludicrous. Not counting Kentucky, the SEC has seven top 50 teams (Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Florida, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Vanderbilt), and ten top 100 teams (the previous seven plus Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee). Not counting Gonzaga, the WCC has one top 50 team (BYU) and two top 100 teams (add St. Mary's).

I get that you don't believe in ratings, but to say the two conferences are anywhere close to equal from a strength-of-schedule viewpoint is beyond ridiculous.

[bob blue devil]

in my mind this is getting close to locked in, but i think that should be a controversial view (and dependent on how you define close - i'm not saying 100%, but definitely > 50%)
i see 2 most likely outcomes (getting us to the > 50% threshold, particularly if you add undefeated scenario)
- a bit disappointing finish - they lose 2 games (1-2 reg season and 0-1 acct); in this scenario which 4 teams realistically get 1's ahead of them? kentucky of course, duke if we win out (maybe if lose 1), wisconsin if they win out (maybe if they lose 1), gonzaga probably if they win out, villanova probably if they win out, arizona only possible if they win out, kansas only if possible they win out. i guess i give uva a coin flip in this scenario, but i really should run the math...
- very good finish - they lose 1 game (0-1 reg season and 0-1 acct); in this scenario which 4 teams realistically get 1's ahead of them? kentucky, maybe duke if we win out, and that's it.

this was sparked by the view uva and duke won't both get 1's. with uva getting close to locked in, this statement more becomes duke won't get a 1.

[Kedsy]

this was sparked by the view uva and duke won't both get 1's. with uva getting close to locked in, this statement more becomes duke won't get a 1.

However, I think it's very possible both Duke and Virginia both get 1-seeds. Why do you feel it's not possible?

[davekay1971]

I understand your position, but I will still disagree. I've watched many games in both the SEC and the WCC this year - no matter what some rankings say the eye test from first hand watching them shows there is very little difference at all. I would not be surprised at all if St Mary's or BYU was in the SEC this season if they finished 2nd. And Gonzaga blows them out. Almost all. Kentucky stinks and barely wins a third of the time.

I agree that if the Zags lose again they probably get a 2 seed. But I'll still be EASILY picking them to go as far or further than Kentucky.

I'd go so far as to say the SEC is truly lousy outside of KY. I can't make a comparison to the WCC, having seen very little WCC ball this year. KY is a clear number 1 seed, obviously (their pre-conference wins against Kansas, Louisville, and UNC are all very respectable), but ESPN's breathless enthusiasm about each win in that lousy conference is pretty ridiculous.

Duke should be a 1 seed unless we lose at UNC...AND we lose in the ACC tournament to a team not named Virginia. Obviously those are both real possibilities, but I don't think there's a reasonable argument for Duke being anything other than a 1 seed if we (1) win out; or (2) lose only to UNC in the regular season finale or to UVa in the ACCT.

[bob blue devil]

However, I think it's very possible both Duke and Virginia both get 1-seeds. Why do you feel it's not possible?

sorry - i was unclear. we are in agreement. i should've said, "this was sparked by the view put forward by others". i've heard it on this board and by commentators (including one calling one of the games yesterday; i forget who it was, though).

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Has anyone watched many big12 games? Why is the narrative around the KState win... "See how good this conference is?" But upsets and close games between top and bottom teams in the ACC don't seem to evoke the same storyline? The "Big12 is best" mantra feels like one of those opinions that gets shared by a few during the course of the season and just keeps picking up steam. Every close game becomes more evidence. But the same is not said of the ACC. Is the big12 really that much better?