Other People's Pretend NCAA Brackets

[jasoninchina]

Personally, I am assuming losses to OU and WVU on the road. The next four have me worried (@OSU, @Tech, Baylor, @WVU). Much better KU teams have lost at those 3 places recently.

I want to encourage you to expect the worst but hope for the best. Oklahoma State will be tough and just beat Texas in Austin. I think KU will beat Tech in Mars-like Lubbock (seriously have you ever been to Lubbock?). I think they will also beat Baylor in Lawrence, but will take your word for it and expect a loss against WVU in Morgantown. I think realistically they will go 2-2 doing that stretch.

[77devil]

It has happened 7 times in the last 15 years. I think "quite often" is quite accurate.

0 in the last 5, 3 in the last 10, and 11 out of the last 36, so except for an anomalous period from 2000-2006 when it occurred 6 out of 7, I think quite often is an overstatement. Regardless of how the data is parsed, the current and potential further expansion of the power conferences is making it more likely. I suspect we agree on that.

[Duvall]

Gonzaga Bulldogs: We played one ranked team, and lost. One seed please?

[Troublemaker]

Reminder that Bracket Matrix is a very good resource as we start to think more and more about seeding

http://bracketmatrix.com/

It looks like if the tournament started today, Duke would be the third #1 seed behind Kentucky and UVA, and Gonzaga would be the fourth #1 seed.

[gurufrisbee]

#1 Seeds:

Kentucky. Even if they lose once before the end of the season.
Gonzaga - unless they lose another one before the end of the season, but that seems more unlikely than Kentucky losing.
Kansas - if they win the Big 12 (for the 11th straight time) and the Big 12 tourney, they are a lock.
Virginia - if they win the ACC and ACC tourney.

Those four control their destiny to the #1's.

Duke has a great chance to take the spot from UVA if they keep winning and then win the ACC tourney. However, if Duke doesn't win the ACC regular season OR tournament I don't see them getting a #1 seed because even if some of those four I already listed falter I think Arizona and Wisconsin and Villanova have good chances to win out and win their conferences and would jump ahead for #1 seeds.

Frankly none of these teams worry me. Kentucky we've seen has the potential to be great, but one third of the time this entire season they play like crap and nearly lose to crappy teams. We've shown when we are on our game we can beat anyone - anywhere. Frankly I would LOVE to get the 2 seed if the one seed is Arizona or Villanova.

[freshmanjs]

#1 Seeds:

Kentucky. Even if they lose once before the end of the season.
Gonzaga - unless they lose another one before the end of the season, but that seems more unlikely than Kentucky losing.
Kansas - if they win the Big 12 (for the 11th straight time) and the Big 12 tourney, they are a lock.
Virginia - if they win the ACC and ACC tourney.

Those four control their destiny to the #1's.

Duke has a great chance to take the spot from UVA if they keep winning and then win the ACC tourney. However, if Duke doesn't win the ACC regular season OR tournament I don't see them getting a #1 seed because even if some of those four I already listed falter I think Arizona and Wisconsin and Villanova have good chances to win out and win their conferences and would jump ahead for #1 seeds.

Frankly none of these teams worry me. Kentucky we've seen has the potential to be great, but one third of the time this entire season they play like crap and nearly lose to crappy teams. We've shown when we are on our game we can beat anyone - anywhere. Frankly I would LOVE to get the 2 seed if the one seed is Arizona or Villanova.

i don't understand how Kansas controls their destiny but Duke doesn't. If Duke wins out, Duke is a lock for a #1 (not that I think that likely).

[gurufrisbee]

i don't understand how Kansas controls their destiny but Duke doesn't. If Duke wins out, Duke is a lock for a #1 (not that I think that likely).

Duke winning out does not get them the regular season conference title (necessarily). Kansas would. I think it would be very close between those two, but I think the committee would give Kansas the edge because of that. Plus there is still a perception that the Big 12 is better than the ACC.

[hurleyfor3]

#1 Seeds:

Kentucky. Even if they lose once before the end of the season.
Gonzaga - unless they lose another one before the end of the season, but that seems more unlikely than Kentucky losing.
Kansas - if they win the Big 12 (for the 11th straight time) and the Big 12 tourney, they are a lock.
Virginia - if they win the ACC and ACC tourney.

Those four control their destiny to the #1's.

Duke has a great chance to take the spot from UVA if they keep winning and then win the ACC tourney.

The 1 seeds have a good bit more leeway than that. Most obviously, either Duke or UVa will lose at least one more game, but it's very possible for both to be 1-seeds.

I'd say Ky can lose at least two more games and possibly three. UVa can probably lose twice; we can definitely lose once and maybe twice. Gonzo has the shakiest case, followed by Kansas.

[CDu]

Duke winning out does not get them the regular season conference title (necessarily). Kansas would. I think it would be very close between those two, but I think the committee would give Kansas the edge because of that. Plus there is still a perception that the Big 12 is better than the ACC.

I disagree. If Duke wins out, we will be a #1 seed regardless of what Kansas or anyone else does. Our resume is better than theirs now, and winning out would mean at least two if not 4 more wins over top-20 teams. No way that a team that is 31-3 with an RPI in the top-3 or 4 and the ACC Championship gets a #2 seed.

[tbyers11]

Duke winning out does not get them the regular season conference title (necessarily). Kansas would. I think it would be very close between those two, but I think the committee would give Kansas the edge because of that. Plus there is still a perception that the Big 12 is better than the ACC.

If Duke wins out (which I agree is not likely) they will be a #1 seed regardless of what anyone else does. Even if Kansas and Gonzaga win out. Regular season championships are a nice feather in the cap but just a part of the overall resume.

[Duvall]

Duke winning out does not get them the regular season conference title (necessarily). Kansas would. I think it would be very close between those two, but I think the committee would give Kansas the edge because of that. Plus there is still a perception that the Big 12 is better than the ACC.

That's an argument for Virginia getting 1-seed over Duke, not Kansas. A 31-3 Duke team is not getting passed over for a team that lost to Temple by 25.

[gurufrisbee]

I'd love it if you all were right, but I have a feeling that if Kansas wins the regular season and the conference tournament in the conference that most are saying is the best in the nation still that it will take an undefeated Kentucky for them not to be the #1 overall seed.

[hurleyfor3]

I'd love it if you all were right, but I have a feeling that if Kansas wins the regular season and the conference tournament in the conference that most are saying is the best in the nation still that it will take an undefeated Kentucky for them not to be the #1 overall seed.

That doesn't invalidate anyone's arguments. The weak hand would then be Gonzaga's.

[Kedsy]

I disagree. If Duke wins out, we will be a #1 seed regardless of what Kansas or anyone else does. Our resume is better than theirs now, and winning out would mean at least two if not 4 more wins over top-20 teams. No way that a team that is 31-3 with an RPI in the top-3 or 4 and the ACC Championship gets a #2 seed.

I agree with you, but it's worth noting Kansas currently is #1 in the RPI. As hurleyfor3 said, if everyone wins out (except let's say UVa loses one more) it's probably Gonzaga who drops to #2, not Duke or Kansas or Virginia.

[TexHawk]

I disagree. If Duke wins out, we will be a #1 seed regardless of what Kansas or anyone else does. Our resume is better than theirs now, and winning out would mean at least two if not 4 more wins over top-20 teams. No way that a team that is 31-3 with an RPI in the top-3 or 4 and the ACC Championship gets a #2 seed.

I have admitted that this speculation is ridiculous, since a lot of stuff usually happens in the last month before the tournament. As I've said, I don't see KU winning out, or even close.

BUT, since this is a message board, and for the sake of argument... If KU wins out, they/we are 30-4, with one more Top 25 opponent in the regular season, plus another two or so in the tournament. (WVU is #28, and KU plays them twice in the next few weeks.) That KU team would have played at least 13 games against RPI top 25 teams, going 10-3. (Duke is currently 3-0.) KU's RPI is #1, SOS is #1. In this theoretical future world, they are also champion of the "best" conference regular season (16-2 record) + tournament championship. I would eat my shoe if that team doesn't get a #1 seed.

Of course, this doesn't have to be a Duke v KU thing. If both were to win out, the likely victims relegated to #2 seeds would be in the UVA/Zona/Nova/Wisconsin/Gonzaga club.

[Duvall]

Whew. Sometimes this game can still be fun, when no one from the Wisconsin/Wisconsin-Green Bay axis is involved.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Kansas just lost to West Virginia on one of the craziest ends to a game I've seen. With about 30 seconds to go and 24 seconds on the shot clock, WVU is down by 1 and elects to play defense. The Kansas shot misses and is knocked out of bounds by Perry Ellis of Kansas with 8.4 seconds left. WVU take the ball down the court and immediately scores on a drive to the basket. Kansas take the ball out of bounds and lobs it to half court where Perry Ellis goes to the rim. His finger rolls rims out and WVU wins the game. Wow.

This loss by Kansas puts Duke in the pole position for a #1 seed. Duke has to, you know, win out. Duke does that and they'll be a #1 seed. No biggie.

[DukeDiva]

KU taken down by WVU. Perry Ellis last the buzzer beater.

[mr. synellinden]

So much for the Kansas winning out discussion. Although I don't think this loss will end up making a difference in whether they get a #1 seed or not.

[CDu]

Kansas now has as many losses in conference as we do, a loss worse than any of ours, and two more total losses. And they lack the elite-tier wins we have (not to mention that our biggest wins are road wins). So I think the "regular season and conference champ" argument rings a bit hollow. Duke's resume is better. If both teams win out from here, Duke gets a 1 seed over Kansas.

Either way, if we win out, we are getting a 1 seed.