Other People's Pretend NCAA Brackets

[El_Diablo]

I'm going to go ahead and LOL at this, since the SEC has a school within 100 miles of St. Louis. It's ok, I don't acknowledge them either.

Back on topic, I believe UK went to the committee directly and told them they preferred Atlanta. I don't know how they accomplished that (carrier pigeon?), but they made their preference widely known.

Missouri had not yet joined the SEC when this happened.

[TexHawk]

Missouri had not yet joined the SEC when this happened.

Technically true, but they had accepted the invitation, just not soon enough to alter the 2012-13 hoops season. Those silly kids even held up "SEC" signs when they won the Big12 tournament that year. Very classy.

[DukeinDC]

Apologies if this has been already covered - but with all caveats of having to beat them at some point - is anyone worried about the following scenario playing out given this geography/history matrix the committee seems to apply at all costs?

East: Syracuse
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Nova to Syracuse (long big east ties there)

West: LA
#1 Zona
#2 Zags to LA (regional)

South: Houston
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Kansas (big 12 ties to Texas)

Midwest: Cleveland
#1 Kentucky
#2 Duke (because everyone else on the #2 line has a stronger claim to a particular region)

Not to mention, as much as the committee claims not to look for story lines, a Duke-UK regional final is always an opportunity that will jump out.

[freshmanjs]

Apologies if this has been already covered - but with all caveats of having to beat them at some point - is anyone worried about the following scenario playing out given this geography/history matrix the committee seems to apply at all costs?

East: Syracuse
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Nova to Syracuse (long big east ties there)

West: LA
#1 Zona
#2 Zags to LA (regional)

South: Houston
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Kansas (big 12 ties to Texas)

Midwest: Cleveland
#1 Kentucky
#2 Duke (because everyone else on the #2 line has a stronger claim to a particular region)

Not to mention, as much as the committee claims not to look for story lines, a Duke-UK regional final is always an opportunity that will jump out.

they do the placement in order without regard to impact on teams below. so, the only way duke ends up in midwest because it's better for everyone else is if we are #8. i think it's very unlikely that we end up #8.

we could end up in the midwest if the committee thinks that is the best geographical spot for us when our turn comes up. hopefully, they will realize that the east and south would be better geo fits. unfortunately, "because we want to avoid kentucky," will not be a reason the committee puts us somewhere other than midwest.

[NYBri]

Apologies if this has been already covered - but with all caveats of having to beat them at some point - is anyone worried about the following scenario playing out given this geography/history matrix the committee seems to apply at all costs?

East: Syracuse
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Nova to Syracuse (long big east ties there)

West: LA
#1 Zona
#2 Zags to LA (regional)

South: Houston
#1 UVA/Wisconsin
#2 Kansas (big 12 ties to Texas)

Midwest: Cleveland
#1 Kentucky
#2 Duke (because everyone else on the #2 line has a stronger claim to a particular region)

Not to mention, as much as the committee claims not to look for story lines, a Duke-UK regional final is always an opportunity that will jump out.

What makes you think we aren't going to be a 1 seed?

[bob blue devil]

they do the placement in order without regard to impact on teams below. so, the only way duke ends up in midwest because it's better for everyone else is if we are #8. i think it's very unlikely that we end up #8.

we could end up in the midwest if the committee thinks that is the best geographical spot for us when our turn comes up. hopefully, they will realize that the east and south would be better geo fits. unfortunately, "because we want to avoid kentucky," will not be a reason the committee puts us somewhere other than midwest.

does anyone know what the committee is likely to view as our geographic preference? cleveland is actually the closest, meaning we could end up with kentucky as a #5 seed (or 6). but east is our more natural (and historically our preferred region). i'd put south next, but houston is far from durham... this year is all wacky with the east in northern bfe and eastish cleveland claiming the midwest. i mean washington dc is equidistant between the east site and the midwest site - how messed up is that?

[Wahoo2000]

does anyone know what the committee is likely to view as our geographic preference? cleveland is actually the closest, meaning we could end up with kentucky as a #5 seed (or 6). but east is our more natural (and historically our preferred region). i'd put south next, but houston is far from durham... this year is all wacky with the east in northern bfe and eastish cleveland claiming the midwest. i mean washington dc is equidistant between the east site and the midwest site - how messed up is that?

If I had to guess, I'd bet the committee would say best regions for Duke geographically in order would be:
1) East (Syracuse slightly farther than Cleveland, but big Duke fanbase in NY)
2) Midwest (MUCH, MUCH closer to Durham than Houston)
3) South (It's far, but not Anaheim-far)
4) West

I think you guys only get Kentucky and the midwest if you lose to UNC and again in the tourney, combined with AZ winning out, 'Nova losing in the BE title game, and Wisc dropping 1-2 more. This would put Duke on the 2 line behind Nova (who would take the East spot) and ahead of Wisc (only other 2 who would be placed by preference in the midwest).

I think ALL of those things happening are relatively remote. I could see you guys POSSIBLY falling to a 2, but to also have Nova slip PLUS Wisc slip AND the committee rank you between those two.... seems unlikely.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

So with our win against Wake Forest tonight, I have to believe Duke has locked up at least a #2 seed even if we lose to UNC and also lose our Quarterfinal game in the ACCT.

I'd say our "magic number" is 3 at this point to secure a #1 seed - either lose to UNC but win the ACCT or defeat UNC and lose in the ACCT Final.

[freshmanjs]

So with our win against Wake Forest tonight, I have to believe Duke has locked up at least a #2 seed even if we lose to UNC and also lose our Quarterfinal game in the ACCT.

I'd say our "magic number" is 3 at this point to secure a #1 seed - either lose to UNC but win the ACCT or defeat UNC and lose in the ACCT Final.

we have way more leeway than that. locked up a 2 seed before tonight. will be a #1 wih 4 losses, no matter who the 4th loss is too. have a chance to be a #1 with 5 losses.

[BlueDevilBrowns]

we have way more leeway than that. locked up a 2 seed before tonight. will be a #1 wih 4 losses, no matter who the 4th loss is too. have a chance to be a #1 with 5 losses.

I agree partially.

What I meant to say was if we win 3 out of the 4 possible games remaining we'll secure a #1 seed, whatever combination that ends up being.

However, if we close the season losing 2 games in a row (i.e. @UNC and the first game in the ACCT) we would need massive help to still be a 1 seed, IMO.

[SCMatt33]

we have way more leeway than that. locked up a 2 seed before tonight. will be a #1 wih 4 losses, no matter who the 4th loss is too. have a chance to be a #1 with 5 losses.

I'm not sure we have quite that much leeway, depending on what others do. I'm not sure what the committee will do, but I think there's a chance that a 2-loss Nova is seeded ahead of a 4 loss Duke, no matter where the 4th loss come. A three loss Wiscy or three loss Zona could also pass a 4 loss Duke, but I think that the loss would have to be in the ACC quarters. So there's a very good chance that a 4 loss Duke still gets a one seed, but I think that an ACC quarters loss makes it possible to drop to number 5 or 6 overall with only 4 losses.

As for 5 losses, I think that it would take at least 1 more loss from two out of Nova, Wiscy, and Zona. A 5th loss in the ACC quarters might also bring Kansas or even Gonzaga back into play for passing us should they win out.

Beating Carolina on Saturday in my mind would lock up a top 6 overall seed and that should be enough to keep Duke out of the Midwest as none of the teams that would be 5th overall would go to the South (Zona West, Wisconsin Midwest, and Nova East)

[freshmanjs]

I'm not sure we have quite that much leeway, depending on what others do. I'm not sure what the committee will do, but I think there's a chance that a 2-loss Nova is seeded ahead of a 4 loss Duke, no matter where the 4th loss come. A three loss Wiscy or three loss Zona could also pass a 4 loss Duke, but I think that the loss would have to be in the ACC quarters. So there's a very good chance that a 4 loss Duke still gets a one seed, but I think that an ACC quarters loss makes it possible to drop to number 5 or 6 overall with only 4 losses.

As for 5 losses, I think that it would take at least 1 more loss from two out of Nova, Wiscy, and Zona. A 5th loss in the ACC quarters might also bring Kansas or even Gonzaga back into play for passing us should they win out.

Beating Carolina on Saturday in my mind would lock up a top 6 overall seed and that should be enough to keep Duke out of the Midwest as none of the teams that would be 5th overall would go to the South (Zona West, Wisconsin Midwest, and Nova East)

other teams will lose

[NYBri]

Solution?

Keep winning.

[yancem]

I think that I would take this bracket: http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology Of the likely 2 seeds I would prefer Gonzaga or Kansas and I would like to see KY have to play either Wisconsin or Arizona. Check and Check. I'm also fine with Utah and Iowa St. as the 3 and 4 seeds.

[neemizzle]

I think that I would take this bracket: http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology Of the likely 2 seeds I would prefer Gonzaga or Kansas and I would like to see KY have to play either Wisconsin or Arizona. Check and Check. I'm also fine with Utah and Iowa St. as the 3 and 4 seeds.

I like this bracket. That Coastal Carolina/Gonzaga matchup would be interesting. If I remember correctly, they played UVa tough last year? At least a close 1st half I believe.

EDIT: I remember now. Coastal couldn't finish. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...h-madness-2014

[gurufrisbee]

I don't like Davidson as the 8 there. No #1 would want to see them in the 2nd round.

[tux]

I think that I would take this bracket: http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology Of the likely 2 seeds I would prefer Gonzaga or Kansas and I would like to see KY have to play either Wisconsin or Arizona. Check and Check. I'm also fine with Utah and Iowa St. as the 3 and 4 seeds.

I actually think Kansas is a dangerous team. They've played the toughest schedule in the country and have a nice offense/defense balance, looking at the kenpom numbers. Of course, the only game I've seen Kansas play was against Kentucky... so, yeah...

(BTW: I enjoy thinking about kenpom's luck metric, which I take is a measure of the error in the model whereby a team with good "luck" performs better in games than their rating would suggest. I like to think of teams with good "luck" as having some intangibles (chemistry, leadership, etc.) that the model doesn't capture. Last year's Duke team finished with a luck rank of 255 (-0.35); right now, this year's squad is at 24 (+0.82).)

[DukeinDC]

I don't like Davidson as the 8 there. No #1 would want to see them in the 2nd round.

Agreed. Between Charlotte location and their offensive oriented team with strong guard play and three point shooting ability, this would be a bit of a nightmare match up. And unfortunately, if we're in Charlotte with UVA in the first ("second") round, they'd definitely be our 8 seed since they played UVA (in a pretty close game no less) already. Too soon to stress over this though!

[subzero02]

I don't mind that proposed region at all. I think a potential matchup with Davidson is preferable to one against St. John's, Ohio State or Georgia.

[slower]

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology has:

Wisconsin as Kentucky's #2, Kansas as Virginia's #2, Arizona as Villanova's #2, Gonzaga as Duke's #2 and UNC as our #4