Originally Posted by
gumbomoop
Agree, mostly.
We're very likely to see Tyus and Quinn each play 37-38 minutes in close games. Tyus controls our destiny, and Quinn can hit a few key 3's. If Justise, who seemed healthier v. ND, is in fact gradually working through his shoulder and rib problems, his play on both D and O will be crucial; his minutes will go up to 30+/game. Jahlil probably maxes out at 30 or so. Marshall and Amile each get extra minutes, as Justise will now only briefly, maybe rarely, play the 4. I don't expect Matt's minutes to go up much at all, but he still will be expectd to play 16-18/game. As Kedsy says, Grayson may play a bit more, but not a lot more. Unless, given a chance in some upcoming game, he shines, seems to be way more comfortable, and suddenly provides K a legit 8th rotation player. I hope it happens, but I don't expect it.
In any particular game, foul problems will cause havoc with the above guesses. Trouble for Amile might necessitate Justise rather than Marshall moving to the 4, in turn requiring more minutes for Matt, or an extended appearance for Grayson.
Before this awful development, my major obsession was mediocre FT-shooting by Jahlil, Amile, and Justise. In games, however, when Duke leads in last 2 minutes, I expect to see Justise and the 4 guards. Will obviously depend on the exact lead, but if we have the ball up by 5 with 1:36 left, K will use his best FT-shooters. Possibly -- I can't quite believe this -- Marshall and the 4 guards.
Apologies for focusing on PT rather than D. I just assume we'll see mostly M2M, some zone, not picking up so high. As against ND, we may have to try to win with efficient O, expecting that to frustrate opponents enough that our mediocre D won't kill us.