MBB: #4 Duke vs. #8 Notre Dame (Wed 1930 EST, ESPN2)

[FerryFor50]

I'll go ahead and start this thread, as I didn't see one yet.

HUGE pair of games this week against two teams that are in competition with Duke for #1 in the ACC. UVA was pretty obvious to compete, but the other team is not UNC - it's Notre Dame.

Mike Brey has pretty much created a Duke clone (well, Duke of recent years) at South Bend.

- talented offense (#1 in offensive efficiency in KenPom) with good PG play, 3 point shooters and stretch four players
- Shaky defense (153 in kenpom)

Notre Dame has been scuffling a bit the past few games, with narrow escapes against NCSU, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC. However, they also beat Miami and NCSU, who smacked Duke around in their games.

Notre Dame has some troublesome guards in Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson. They will cause problems if Duke decides to try to play a lot of aggressive man to man.

They also have shooters all over the floor, which will cause issues with zone. Pat Connaughton will be a headache as an athletic shooter. He's almost as springy as Grayson Allen, but is a senior and has better strength than Allen.

Grant is also a strong defender and likely will be hyped up to play Duke, which is the narrative of every. single. guard. we. play.

They don't have a ton of size however, and they don't rebound great. Hopefully Okafor has one of his better games.

[TruBlu]

I'll go ahead and start this thread, as I didn't see one yet.

HUGE pair of games this week against two teams that are in competition with Duke for #1 in the ACC. UVA was pretty obvious to compete, but the other team is not UNC - it's Notre Dame.

Mike Brey has pretty much created a Duke clone (well, Duke of recent years) at South Bend.

- talented offense (#1 in offensive efficiency in KenPom) with good PG play, 3 point shooters and stretch four players
- Shaky defense (153 in kenpom)

Notre Dame has been scuffling a bit the past few games, with narrow escapes against NCSU, Miami, Georgia Tech and UNC. However, they also beat Miami and NCSU, who smacked Duke around in their games.

Notre Dame has some troublesome guards in Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson. They will cause problems if Duke decides to try to play a lot of aggressive man to man.

They also have shooters all over the floor, which will cause issues with zone. Pat Connaughton will be a headache as an athletic shooter. He's almost as springy as Grayson Allen, but is a senior and has better strength than Allen.

Grant is also a strong defender and likely will be hyped up to play Duke, which is the narrative of every. single. guard. we. play.

They don't have a ton of size however, and they don't rebound great. Hopefully Okafor has one of his better games.

So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . .

[FerryFor50]

So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . .

lol

Maybe less aggressive man?

I think it will be one of those games where they will mix it up and we'll have hundreds of posts on how bad the defense is, when in reality it's just that ND's offense is good.

[roywhite]

I've been impressed with Notre Dame's poise in tough situations. They trailed by a bunch yesterday at NCSU, and hung together; they were definitely the better executing team down the stretch -- took better care of the ball, and made better decisions. ND can beaten, but not easily.

First key IMO will be a big game from Jahlil; want to see him score a bunch, but perhaps just as important, pass well when double and triple-teamed.

[devildeac]

So, we can't play aggressive man to man, and we can't play zone?!?

It's over . . .

"What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

Was it over when Casey Sanders broke his foot?


(There's always a box and 1 or a triangle and 2.)

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

1-2-2 zone with OakPlum down low? Better with perimeter shooters but tricky to defend in the corners.

I think we'll see lots of m2m and switching out top on Wednesday night. But we still gotta work on our hedging/icing -- it's gotten weak as of late.

[mr. synellinden]

"What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is!"

Was it over when Casey Sanders broke his foot?


(There's always a box and 1 or a triangle and 2.)

Sanders?

Forget it. He's rolling.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Here it comes... Tyus Quinn Amile MP3 amd Jah start the game

[CDu]

Thanks FerryFor50 for starting this thread and with a good breakdown on Notre Dame. Not a ton to add to it, as you did a really comprehensive job.

The only thing I can add is to emphasize a few points Ferry made:
1. Notre Dame is small. They play 3 guards all game and usually play a SF at PF. So this will be one of the rare times the rest of the way in which we are the bigger team. We need to take advantage of our size on the boards on both ends. But at the same time, we could easily get away with a lineup with 4 guards/wings, with Winslow or Matt Jones as the de facto PF.
2. Their starting "PF" (Connaughton) is really a SF, and an extremely good one. He shares a lot of the same characteristics as Winslow, but he's a better rebounder and a better 3pt shooter. He'll be a tough matchup for anyone, Winslow included. But it will be critical that we figure out how to guard him. Hopefully Jefferson/Winslow/Jones can do the job, because I don't think that we want Plumlee or Okafor trying to guard him.
3. They are an extremely good offensive team. They have a lot of offensive similarities to us, minus the awesome big man. They have multiple ballhandlers, multiple 3pt shooters, and multiple guys who can score when the play breaks down.
4. Defensively, they are very weak. We need to punish them on that end of the floor because we aren't likely to shut them down defensively.

As for how we attack them defensively, I'm not sure that we can go zone extensively. They are just too disciplined and too good at shooting at too many positions for a zone to work well. But as Ferry noted, Jackson and Grant are very strong off the dribble. Connaughton is, like Winslow, not shabby off the dribble either. So for pretty much the whole game, they'll have 2 or more guys who can break down a defender off the dribble (one of whom will be playing PF much of the time). So I don't know that we can get away with excessive pressure man-to-man. This may be one of those games were we need to go more with our "11" defense (man-to-man but picking up at the 3-point line).

The other thing to note is that they essentially play 6 guys major minutes. Other guys get in as needed, but they roll with their top 6 as much as they can. So if we can get them in some foul trouble (most notably Auguste, Connaughton, and Grant), then beating them gets much easier, because the dropoff to their 7th man is substantial.

Ultimately, I'd expect this to be a high-scoring, very entertaining game. Hopefully we'll be able to outscore them.

[Troublemaker]

Will be interesting to see if Marshall gets more time as backup PF. On the one hand, the Twin Towers look did great vs St. John's, and the usual backup PF, Justise, is currently banged up. On the other hand, Notre Dame's 4-out-1-in lineup might discourage Coach K from using Twin Towers; Duke typically goes small to cover a 6'5" great-shooting stretch 4 like Connaughton. I can see it going either way, but I'm hoping to see Twin Towers. I think there's a chance Marshall is athletic enough to make it work, even if Duke is playing man-2-man and Marshall needs to cover Connaughton out on the perimeter. And if it happens to work against Notre Dame, it might become a staple for the rest of the season.

[FerryFor50]

As for their "bigs" Auguste is the biggest guy at 6'10". He's strong and can rebound, but he's a little foul prone (2.5 per game). I predict Okafor makes him a non-factor due to foul trouble.

After him, they have the following guys:

VJ Beachem 6'8" - more of a shooter; deadly from 3
Austin Burgett 6'9" - doesn't play a ton (7.8 mpg); junior. I expect we'll see him a bit against Duke, though.
Martinas Geben 6'9" - freshman (9.7 mpg); ditto about seeing him more against Duke
Eric Katenda 6'9" - junior; plays sparingly (2.4mpg)

As CDu mentioned, Connaughton is their de facto PF. He actually rebounds better than Auguste, mainly due to his athleticism and strength. He will be a giant pain in the rear.

I think Amile might actually have a solid game, given no one matches up that well with him. That is, if Amile is healthy after the St. John's blood bath. (Red Storm has a whole new meaning)

This site has a good amount of info on them:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...dame/2015.html

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

[FerryFor50]

Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

Yea that was my overall impression of watching them and seeing the overall numbers. Main difference here is that they don't have a Jabari Parker.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yea that was my overall impression of watching them and seeing the overall numbers. Main difference here is that they don't have a Jabari Parker.

But we didn't have a Grant last year (ie someone who can play really solid defense). Still, Jabari > Grant. I see your point.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The other thing to note is that they essentially play 6 guys major minutes. Other guys get in as needed, but they roll with their top 6 as much as they can. So if we can get them in some foul trouble (most notably Auguste, Connaughton, and Grant), then beating them gets much easier, because the dropoff to their 7th man is substantial.

Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

[roywhite]

But we didn't have a Grant last year (ie someone who can play really solid defense). Still, Jabari > Grant. I see your point.

Well, let's not shortchange Grant. He's having an All-ACC, possibly All-America season.

You note his defense; offensively, he's averaging 17.1 ppg on shooting of 51% FG, 34% 3-pt, and 79% FT; he's also adding 6.2(!) assists and 1.5 steals per game. He'll be hard to shut down, but we at least want to stop him from really going off. Winslow would probably draw the defensive assignment, but his physical status is questionable. Sulaimon and Matt Jones will need to defend well, and try to avoid foul trouble. Our zone defense may be used to try to keep him outside.

[CDu]

Ferry and CDu - thank you! Great breakdowns.

Is it safe to say that we're playing against "Duke: 2013-2014"? #1 offense, terrible defense, non-traditional stretch 4, great 3pt shooting, lack of size...tons of parallels. Obviously, there are differences between the two teams, but I see so many parallels.

Thoughts?

I would agree that there are a lot of parallels between them and last year's Duke team. They are very capable offensively but very reliant on the 3, and they are very suspect defensively. Last year's Duke team is a reasonable comp, although they actually play even smaller than we did last year.

Grant is a terrific talent, and probably should be first-team All-ACC. And Connaughton, Jackson, and Auguste are not to be overlooked. Connaughton should get some All-ACC consideration; he's that good and versatile. Vasturia and Beachem are essentially replicas of Andre Dawkins - guys who are terrific floor-spacing 3pt shooters but not much more.

After that top-6 though, the dropoff is precipitous. They have a few bigs who play sparingly as needed. Folks may remember Burgett from his solid showing against Duke (5 boards and 5 blocks) last year. Burgett is athletic but not terribly skilled, and plays limited minutes on this team as the backup "center." If absolutely necessary, they have Geben (another backup PF/C) and Torres (another undersized PF) in case of emergency. But all three of these guys are fairly non-descript, and going to them for extended minutes substantially weakens their offense.

Similarly, if Grant or Connaughton gets into foul trouble, they lose a lot of their ability to exploit mismatches and create trouble for the defense.

[jv001]

Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

Thanks for the information on the ND-State game. I would look for some cuts to the basket by Amile and our wings if ND doubles on Jahlil. But you are right in we need to get the ball to the big guy and hope the refs don't swallow their whistles like they did against St. Johns. I'm really hoping Justise is ready to go against these guys, but I really want him 100% when we visit Virginia. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

As Notre Dame is at the top of the charts in three-point shooting, it seems like we should be playing man-to-man. In fact, I expect mostly man-to-man with some zone used to provide some variety and unpredictability.

[luvdahops]

Yeah, this is pretty key. During the OT game against NC State, only 7 players played. And their 7th man was forced to play because Pat Connaughton fouled out.

Zach Auguste is backed by VJ Beechem (the two also play a few minutes together) but VJ Beechem is only 6'8", 187 pounds. If Auguste gets in any foul trouble, I can't imagine a 187 pounder trying to guard Okafor.

With this in mind, get ready for a) Okafor domination (Okanation) or b) three-point barrage once they decide to double Okafor (which is arguably the better strategy). Hell, maybe both.

ND is a really good team at home, so I won't be too upset if we lose. But if we don't try to get it to Okafor ASAP, I'll be a little disappointed given the ND personnel (or lack thereof)

6-5 Freshman Bonzie Colson has actually been playing regular rotation minutes over the past 4 ACC games. He's a bouncy wide body (weighs 225) with some extra wing span, so plays taller than 6-5. And definitely mixes it up more inside than Beechem (and rebounds and blocks shots at a much higher rate). Sort of a poor man's Robert Brickey. Unlikely to bother Big Jah much, though.

As others have mentioned, Connaughton is going to be a tough matchup for us, whatever defense we play. Kid is a gamer with great skills and plenty of athleticism (is a high level MLB prospect as well).

Agree that ND is a really good team at home. I have been to the Joyce Center a dozen times or so - it can be very loud and intimidating, and has hosted some landmark games over the years, though not so many recently.