I like what I've seen of Grayson so far. He is not ready yet for big minutes but I like working him into the rotation. Teams like Miami and State would love to have a Grayson Allen on their squad. He can spell our big minute getters with 10 minutes of play/ game and the starters will play with more energy, knowing that they have gas in the tank to burn. I doubt that he'll get that much time this year but I'd be thrilled if he did. A more realistic prediction is that his minutes remain as they are and his role becomes more and more important to the team year by year.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Figured this thread could use a bump. Nobody can replace Rasheed. However, Grayson is almost certainly going to get more PT. I'm not sure if K just tightens the rotation or if Grayson does get real minutes. I think he has it in him. We shall see...
Sad day for Duke hoops and Rasheed. Whole situation is a shame.
I don't think anything really changes. You earn minutes. Grayson hasn't earned them yet. I don't think he will get 5 extra minutes a game just for the hell of it. He may be brought it out of necessity, but I think we are going to rock a 7 man rotation for the vast majority of the time.
Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.
-Roy "Ole Huck" Williams
I think you're probably right. But you never know. For what it's worth, from what I've seen I don't at all think Grayson is a bad defender. I think he has the tools to be better than Tyus or Quinn at the very least, and eventually actually be a plus defender. I just don't know whether he's ready to play meaningful minutes yet.
Ready or not, 8 scholarship players is 8 scholarship players. I agree with you guys that our default is probably going to be a 7 man rotation, but I think it's basically guaranteed that at some point during the remainder of the season Grayson will see some minutes of playing time in a competitive game due to foul trouble or somebody getting cramps or whatever.
Obviously it isn't certain, but I would expect Sulaimon's 19 mpg to be distributed something like as follows:
Winslow: +3 (from 27 to 30)
Matt Jones: +8 (from 17 to 25)
Jefferson: +4 (from 24 to 28)
Plumlee: +2 (from 9 to 11)
Allen: +2 (from 5* to 7)
I think the biggest change is that Matt Jones now becomes essentially a 6th starter, and we will now see the small lineup much less.
I think this will give Matt Jones and (indirectly) Jefferson and Plumlee a chance to seize more playing time. But I would have expected Coach to tighten the rotation anyway, so I see this as simply forcing the tightening rather than giving Allen a big boost.
There will surely be times (injury, multiple players in foul trouble) where Allen gets pressed into more action. But in terms of the normal rotation, I am not sure we will see a big change.
* the 5 is his average over all games as he had 4 DNPs
I think that you are underestimating Allen's importance. There are times when a team can use an offensive spark off the bench. Sulaimon definitely could provide it. I'm pretty sure that Duke is not going to get it from Plumlee or Matt Jones. By default, K might have to try Allen some in that role- not just because of injuries or foul trouble.
I think Allen needs to have a bigger role. Right now, the only 2 real playmakers we have are both in the starting lineup. Rasheed's ability to get in the paint from the perimeter and make plays was a vital part of our bench, and Allen is the only guy coming off the bench who could realistically develop that skill set. (I think we mostly know the limitations of Matt Jones' game at this point) I don't think he gets Sulaimon's 19 minutes, but I think he needs to get 10-12 minutes, and then maybe more if he starts to prove himself.
Even with depleted depth I would be shocked if Grayson gets anywhere near 10-12 minutes p/g for the rest of the season. I know you've been very high on him and I like him a lot too. I think he will be a nice role player while at Duke but he just hasn't shown anything to indicate that he is ready to compete at this level, yet. Sure he's athletic, he can shoot it and handle a little bit, but the game appears way too fast for him right now. I think K is going with primarily a 7-man rotation from here on out with Grayson filling in on spot duty when foul issues arise. K may insert him in the 1st half of a few games just to get some sort of feel for how much he may have going. But he'll be quick to yank him once Grayson starts to look out of place and will only come off the bench if/when there is serious foul trouble amongst our other guards.
"Just be you. You is Enough."
When a player in many sports moved to the next level, has some problems, then improves you often hear commentators says something like the game is starting to slow down for him.
In my opinion the college game is still too fast for Grayson. I would guess that over time it will in fact slow down for him.
I don't think he will just be awarded minutes because Rasheed is not there. He will probably get some more minutes out of necessity and hopefully will benefit greatly from the experience and it will accelerate the process of slowing the game for him.
SoCal
I expect Grayson to get more minutes. He is averaging 3-4 MPG in ACC action and 5-6 overall. If he gets eight minutes a game, that's a big increase, and I think likely. I'm not sure, though, that he'll see a lot of action tomorrow at JPJ.
As usual, you can take all my predictions to the bank -- that's the Bank of Kiev.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013