2015 NBA Draft

[yancem]

Yes, I was talking about filling a need and not best player available. If you want to talk about it, most people have Towns as BPA and I think you'd have a hard time finding a group of scouts, GMs, writers who believe Okafor is the single best player in this draft. This is either a two-man race for 1st or I've actually seen more Towns as 1 and Okafor as 2. I know we tend to be biased towards Duke players here, but let's not get carried away - Towns is an excellent talent and probably has fewer question marks to his game right now than Jah.

I'm not sure why anyone would think that Towns has fewer question marks than Okafor. Towns played on a team that was stacked in the frontcourt and was never the focus of the opposing team's defense. A lot of his points were on the break or dunks. I know that he has more range than Okafor but he shot only 25% from the 3 which doesn't exactly make him a great stretch 4 and I'm not sure he proved that he can be a consistent post scorer. He certainly should develop in that department but I think that Okafor will develop similarly on defense. His defense was often much better when the game was on the line than people give him credit for. He didn't always play aggressive defense but I think that was in large part by design. He has great footwork and mobility and there is no reason to believe that he can't use those traits on the defensive end. Conversely, while Towns excelled on defense, he didn't have to worry about foul trouble at all since he only played 21 mpg and knew that there were 3-4 guys that could spell him. Also with the other tall trees in the KY lineup, he could gamble without much consequence.

While I will admit that Towns may have a slightly higher ceiling due to his athleticism and better outside shooting, I think that Okafor is much more of a sure thing. We really haven't seen a player like Okafor in quite a while but there seems to be 1-2 players similar to Towns every year. If I were making the decision, I would take Okafor but then again, there may be a reason I'm not making the decision!

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm not sure why anyone would think that Towns has fewer question marks than Okafor. Towns played on a team that was stacked in the frontcourt and was never the focus of the opposing team's defense. A lot of his points were on the break or dunks. I know that he has more range than Okafor but he shot only 25% from the 3 which doesn't exactly make him a great stretch 4 and I'm not sure he proved that he can be a consistent post scorer. He certainly should develop in that department but I think that Okafor will develop similarly on defense. His defense was often much better when the game was on the line than people give him credit for. He didn't always play aggressive defense but I think that was in large part by design. He has great footwork and mobility and there is no reason to believe that he can't use those traits on the defensive end. Conversely, while Towns excelled on defense, he didn't have to worry about foul trouble at all since he only played 21 mpg and knew that there were 3-4 guys that could spell him. Also with the other tall trees in the KY lineup, he could gamble without much consequence.

While I will admit that Towns may have a slightly higher ceiling due to his athleticism and better outside shooting, I think that Okafor is much more of a sure thing. We really haven't seen a player like Okafor in quite a while but there seems to be 1-2 players similar to Towns every year. If I were making the decision, I would take Okafor but then again, there may be a reason I'm not making the decision!

I think this is accurate. Okafor is ready to produce, and he'll be a 15-8 guy at some point in his career. More realistic, he'll be a 20-10 guy, and maybe even a 24-10 guy. However, Okafor will never be a great or elite defender. He may not even be a good defender.

Towns, on the other hand, has the tools to be an great or elite defender. He's already a better rebounder and outside shooter than Okafor (although Okafor will never be and never wants to be an outside shooter). The question is whether Towns can be at least 75% of the offensive player that Okafor can be. Honestly, I think he can.

If I'm a GM who actually cares about my team over my career, I'd take Towns as he has the potential to be a game changer. Okafor will keep the GM his job, but odds are higher for Towns to be a game changer than Okafor.

[roywhite]

Sorry if this was already addressed, but I'm hoping Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus successfully completed their course work for the spring semester.

Wouldn't be shocked it they didn't. Any info?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I don't think there's any question Okafor is an astounding offensive talent. NBA defenses won't be able to key in on him like college defenses were doing later in the season, because the other players on the floor will undoubtedly make them pay. I also think Okafor will only get better at passing out of double teams as time goes by. He's a generational offensive talent, and I think in 2-3 years time will be the most offensively talented big man in the NBA.

It honestly makes no sense why he's so bad on defense. I think he can improve. There's no reason he shouldn't be at least an average defender who can at least alter a few shots in the lane every once in a while. I also found his rebounding a bit lacking given his size advantage in college, and it's not going to get any easier at the next level. Unfortunately, I don't see that part of his game improving much. He'll be perfectly serviceable in that department, but there's going to be plenty of NBA big men who are going to outwork him for the tough rebounds. And that's OK because that kind of thing takes a toll.

If you think Okafor can be an average NBA defender, he should be the #1 pick. I'm frankly not sold, though, that he will reach that point, just because he was inexplicably ineffective at the college level.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Sorry if this was already addressed, but I'm hoping Jahlil, Justise, and Tyus successfully completed their course work for the spring semester.

Wouldn't be shocked it they didn't. Any info?

I'd be monumentally shocked if they didn't finish. That would be a nasty hit to the APR wouldn't it? And I can't imagine them doing that to K and the program.

[rocketeli]

I'd be monumentally shocked if they didn't finish. That would be a nasty hit to the APR wouldn't it? And I can't imagine them doing that to K and the program.

I may be wrong, so some other poster could enlighten me, but I think if the players in question leave in "good academic standing" that is basically finish and pass the spring courses the APR is safe.

[rocketeli]

I don't think there's any question Okafor is an astounding offensive talent. NBA defenses won't be able to key in on him like college defenses were doing later in the season, because the other players on the floor will undoubtedly make them pay. I also think Okafor will only get better at passing out of double teams as time goes by. He's a generational offensive talent, and I think in 2-3 years time will be the most offensively talented big man in the NBA.

It honestly makes no sense why he's so bad on defense. I think he can improve. There's no reason he shouldn't be at least an average defender who can at least alter a few shots in the lane every once in a while. I also found his rebounding a bit lacking given his size advantage in college, and it's not going to get any easier at the next level. Unfortunately, I don't see that part of his game improving much. He'll be perfectly serviceable in that department, but there's going to be plenty of NBA big men who are going to outwork him for the tough rebounds. And that's OK because that kind of thing takes a toll.

If you think Okafor can be an average NBA defender, he should be the #1 pick. I'm frankly not sold, though, that he will reach that point, just because he was inexplicably ineffective at the college level.

I question the meme that Okafor is actually a poor defender. Did we really see that? He doesn't jump around and swat a lot of shots into the seats but that doesn't make him a "poor" defender. When you play way down low people are going to be scoring on you a fair amount because they are putting up very high percentage shots and there's not much anyone can do. I'm sure his positioning and footwork on defense could improve a bit but that's not hard for someone like Okafor to learn.

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I question the meme that Okafor is actually a poor defender. Did we really see that? He doesn't jump around and swat a lot of shots into the seats but that doesn't make him a "poor" defender. When you play way down low people are going to be scoring on you a fair amount because they are putting up very high percentage shots and there's not much anyone can do. I'm sure his positioning and footwork on defense could improve a bit but that's not hard for someone like Okafor to learn.

I don't know how many blocked shots he had, but just subjectively to me, it didn't seem like he deterred anyone from coming into the lane, nor did he alter many shots. A guy that size ought to make opponents at the very least alter their shot angles. Again, this is all subjective, but to me, this very rarely happened with Okafor in the game...like way, way less than I'm used to seeing with other centers his size. Additionally, any time he went up against a talented big man, it seemed he was prone to picking up fouls pretty quickly. I have no numbers to back any of this up. It's just what I remember seeing with my own eyes.

[theAlaskanBear]

I question the meme that Okafor is actually a poor defender. Did we really see that? He doesn't jump around and swat a lot of shots into the seats but that doesn't make him a "poor" defender. When you play way down low people are going to be scoring on you a fair amount because they are putting up very high percentage shots and there's not much anyone can do. I'm sure his positioning and footwork on defense could improve a bit but that's not hard for someone like Okafor to learn.

Okafor faces two problems when it comes to his defense. His weight (makes him slower, also doesnt have great lift) and he lacks experience. I am among the camp that thinks Okafor's defense is being emphasized rather unfairly. He measures out to be a similar height/reach as Towns, and he had more offensive responsibility as well as less defensive help and more minutes than Towns -- Towns could play much more aggressively on defense in Calipari's system than Okafor could in ours, and had more energy to do so because he didnt get the ball on offense every time up.

That said, Jahlil will need to take conditioning very seriously. At 270+ the past year, he is already as heavy as the heaviest NBA centers. The only stars who play at this weight* are Demarcus Cousins (quicker, better athlete), and Marc Gasol (taller, but might be a good comparable), and Andre Drummond (total freak athlete). Most of the really solid NBA centers play lighter, about 250. Guys like Mozgov and Bogut and DeAndre Jordan are all as big as Oak but they play at this 250ish range, and with the exception of Jordan (a great athlete), they play "on the floor" defense quite well. I think Okafor will ideally need to get his weight down to here. Only bulk up after a few years experience, if he thinks he needs more strength. But he has tools, give him some time to learn the game.

That said, I think Towns has tremendous potential as well. He could be a terrifically well rounded offensive player, as well as a good defender. I would draft based on need, do you need a center or a PF?

*according to basketball-reference.com

[pfrduke]

I question the meme that Okafor is actually a poor defender. Did we really see that? He doesn't jump around and swat a lot of shots into the seats but that doesn't make him a "poor" defender. When you play way down low people are going to be scoring on you a fair amount because they are putting up very high percentage shots and there's not much anyone can do. I'm sure his positioning and footwork on defense could improve a bit but that's not hard for someone like Okafor to learn.

Okafor frequently looked lost on pick-and-roll defense. He did not have a good intuitive sense of when to hedge, how far, when to recover, what angle he needed to take to do so, etc. The best, but certainly not only, example of this is the Miami game.

This is hard defense for big men to learn and the fact that he was bad at this aspect of the game in his freshman year of college does not doom him to be bad at it forever. And in one-on-one scenarios, he held his own - he was not a shut down defender, certainly, but he also wasn't really that bad. But he needs a substantial education in how to defend the pick-and-roll - NBA offenses are sophisticated enough to try to exploit that weakness as much as they can.

[Dukehky]

Okafor's much maligned defense is warranted, but not for the reason that many of the talking heads perceive it to be. His pick and roll defense is atrocious. He looks flat footed and slow. This is not one of the areas where the excuse of not wanting to foul is applicable. He is supposed to hedge it and beat the ball handler to the spot with a head start. College basketball does not center on the pick and roll, so I doubt that the defensive coaching he received centered on this aspect of defense, giving him a little leeway.

Other than the pick and roll defense, criticism on his defense is way off base in my opinion. I thought that through the latter part of the season, the fact that he has a 7'6 wingspan and decent vertical athleticism had a pretty good impact on those driving to the rim. He had a presence as a rim protector. Sure he didn't block 3 shots a game, but shot alterations is not a stat that is kept. He also was not very big on swatting at shots like KAT. I thought that Okafor's man to man post defense was well above average. He holds his position and is very adept at keeping his hands straight up. He has a 9'5 standing reach. He does a great job of keeping those hands straight up while his man makes post moves. He forces them to shoot over without jumping and trying to block the shot. This also enables him to stay on the floor, because jumping to block a shot in the post is a sure way to get a foul called on you.

This leads me to the most important qualifier when discussing Jahlil's college defensive performance. He made a concerted effort not to foul. Sometimes he looked lazy, sometimes he looked stupid on defense. But the strategy to keep the threat of the most dominant low post threat college has seen since Duncan obviously was effective. Duke lost 4 games and won a national title. I think there is certainly room for improvement, and unfortunately, the defensive skill he will need to acquire to be an adequate pro defender is the skill I think he is least likely to accrue (pick and roll defense).

All in all, I don't think you can go wrong with Okafor or Towns. I think the questions about Towns on offense (low post) are blown out of proportion almost as badly as Okafor's defensive liabilities are. Towns has terrific R/L jump hooks (look at the Wisconsin game), and apparently can shoot (I'll believe it when I see it). Note: I think Okafor is all about confidence, he hits bank shots with regularity from about 10 feet out and his stroke is certainly not broken, I think he'll get there. I also don't think Towns is some kind of world changing shot blocker. He played in a terrible conference with no shooting and no skill, he could roam around with other rangy athletes and jump and swat to his heart's content. Uk players' stats don't mean anything to me from this past year, and that means good stats and bad stats.

Minnesota would be a bad landing spot for Jah, Pek is a similar type of player, and plus, I want to see him play every once and a while. So while it would be nice to have a Duke guy go 1 again, I'm not too worried about it. Towns is a great player, with more athletic potential than Okafor, but that doesn't always mean you're going to be a better player.

My biggest concern for Jahlil's career is that the NBA is shifting away from giving the ball to one on one post scorers as their primary option. I'm not even sure guys in the league have ever been in a system where it would be important to get the ball to the big guy. Towns' alleged skill set (good shooter) and long athlete would appear to allow for a more seamless transition to the NBA game.

Whatever happens, I think that our 3 guys are going in the top 25 and are going to have outstanding NBA careers. I think that Jah has the potential to be a HOF guy, that Justise will be at least a one time all star and that Tyus will end up being a career starting point guard. Quinn will make a team before his time in hoops is over.

one or two doesn't really matter, but Towns really pushed himself into driving a conversation that started months ago to allow for some discussion leading up to the draft. It started as lip service, he played his way into the lead. That kid is really good, but I would take Jah. Jah wins titles...

[_Gary]

I really don't care to see Jah go to the Timberwolves at all, but they are fools if they take Towns instead. Everyone betting on him being the better player over Okafor will see the error of their ways this year - and in years to come. Mark it down and take it to the bank. Oh, and he's going to get better and better on the defensive end as well, although I think too much is made of his supposed "average to poor" defense. Again, he's going to make a lot of people who are doubting him look really foolish in the years to come. He's a once in a decade talent at center.

[Des Esseintes]

How many Karl Towns games have most of us actually watched? I know I saw way less Kentucky basketball than Duke basketball this season. Not surprisingly, I have no idea whether Okafor or Towns will prove better at the next level. Certainly others watch more college ball than I do, but I nevertheless find it extremely hard to believe the number of people on this board who have a strong opinion on this matter overlaps perfectly with the number of people on this board who have watched equally vast amounts of tape for each player. Further, I think saying a front office would be "foolish" or "stupid" for preferring one consensus top-two player over another consensus top-two player is just chock full of hubris. Predicting future development is hard. Even the very best talent evaluators struggle at it. Can we exercise a little humility here, or is the pull of homerism just that overwhelming?

[Dukehky]

How many Karl Towns games have most of us actually watched? I know I saw way less Kentucky basketball than Duke basketball this season. Not surprisingly, I have no idea whether Okafor or Towns will prove better at the next level. Certainly others watch more college ball than I do, but I nevertheless find it extremely hard to believe the number of people on this board who have a strong opinion on this matter overlaps perfectly with the number of people on this board who have watched equally vast amounts of tape for each player. Further, I think saying a front office would be "foolish" or "stupid" for preferring one consensus top-two player over another consensus top-two player is just chock full of hubris. Predicting future development is hard. Even the very best talent evaluators struggle at it. Can we exercise a little humility here, or is the pull of homerism just that overwhelming?

I hate watched every UK game this season that did not coincide with the time of a Duke game. That being said, I still think KAT is an incredible player/prospect.

[NSDukeFan]

I hate watched every UK game this season that did not coincide with the time of a Duke game. That being said, I still think KAT is an incredible player/prospect.

i would probably do the same if I had to watch every UK game while hoping they wouldn't be undefeated. 😀

[rocketeli]

I was just rewatching the championship game. You know who really isn't very good at defense? Frank Kaminsky.

[Billy Dat]

Interesting Zach Lowe piece on the fall, and potential rise, of post-ups in the NBA. Based on what he observes, the league is at a point where Jah's ability to post and pass is at a premium.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/we...u-its-rebirth/

In short, the rules revolution that took away handchecking and loosened the illegal defense rules not only encouraged drive and kick, but also made it harder to post as the default defense became a front and the loosened D rules allowed much more help from the weak side. However, as the pick and roll game began to thrive, and teams often began to "switch everything" to defend it, you wound up with mismatches of guards being switched onto bigs in the post. If the big rotates into the post and receives the ball, he can either try and work his post game or, if the defense quickly reacts and doubles, he has to be able to move the ball effectively, often to counterintuitive spots on the floor as the help D comes from odd places (sometimes).

Of course, Jah also has to learn to play D in such scenarios, but such is life in the L.

[gus]

The front page article on Tyus cites a few NBA players who were underrate at the draft... and includes Larry Bird?

Not many people thought Charles Barkley could do what he did and no one really expected Muggsy Bogues to last at 5-3. Larry Bird was too slow.

Larry Bird was selected 6th in the '78 draft, despite already making it clear he'd return for another season at Indiana State. The celtics picked him knowing they wouldn't get him for a year! The pacers traded away the top pick knowing that Bird wouldn't play that season: otherwise he would have been the first pick. I think plenty of people expected Bird to do well in the league.

[jimsumner]

The front page article on Tyus cites a few NBA players who were underrate at the draft... and includes Larry Bird?



Larry Bird was selected 6th in the '78 draft, despite already making it clear he'd return for another season at Indiana State. The celtics picked him knowing they wouldn't get him for a year! The pacers traded away the top pick knowing that Bird wouldn't play that season: otherwise he would have been the first pick. I think plenty of people expected Bird to do well in the league.

And Barkley was the fifth pick in a loaded draft. Not exactly under the radar.

[toooskies]

If I remember correctly from when I was an ESPN Insider, Tyus was ranked the #1 prospect nationwide by their system, because he had a tremendously high free throw rate for a guard. It is a trait that tends to coincide with freak athletes (i.e. Dwyane Wade), which Tyus definitely isn't. Tyus instead has the skill of being able to force a foul. It'll be interesting to see if it translates. But that's why many sets of numbers will like his performance translating to the NBA.