Originally Posted by
uh_no
On the 10th anniversary of duke winning in Hartford (was there...sad day...), I figured I'd kick off this thread.
Duke comes into the game with 3 losses, all to ranked opponents, all relatively close. They also come in off a big win against #8 UK at home. They are #1 in rebounding in the country.
Connecticut comes in with 1 loss, an overtime 2 point loss at stanford, who has gone on to lose to #10 texas, #11 UNC, #11 tennessessee, and chatanooga. They lead the country in offense, scoring margin, and shooting %.
Uconn lost two key pieces off their two time defending national championship squad: center Stephanie Dolson, and guard Bria Hartley.
Here's the rundown for the huskies:
PG: Moriah Jefferson: small and exceptionally fast. averaging 10 and 5. Shoots 39% from 3....i wouldn't say she's a threat to blow by you and take it to the hole, but that is never really a big part of geno's offense anyway. She manages the game well and can knock down shots. good for 2-3 steals a game. Duke should be concerned about not turning it over to her in the open court, as she will probably beat everyone down the floor for an easy 2.
SF: Kalena Mosqueda-Lewis...just tied Maya Moore on Uconn's all time 3's made list and is only a few off Taurasi for the school record. She's shooting over 55% on the year. She has really punished duke in the past, hitting 7-11 in last years game. Duke left her wide open for many of those shots, and she made them pay. They're going to have to always be aware of where she is on the court, even if shuffling to double team...
C: Breanna Stewart...national player of the year, and twice F4 MOP. 6'4 with handles, post moves, and a 37% three point shot. averages 17 and 7. She was effectively unstoppable last year while playing across Dolson. This year, she's much more isolated down low, allowing teams to double and triple her...as stanford did when they beat the team. She dominated E-will in last years matchup...24 and 11 vs 9 and 6. If the matchup tends to the way it went last year, duke will have to commit a double.
SG: There have been two players who have gotten the majority of the time here. Early in the season it was Saniya Chong, and she had trouble being effective on the offensive end. She's since been replaced in the starting lineup, but still getting 20 minutes. The minutes and start are now going to freshman kia nurse, who is showing a lot for a freshman, averaging 14 points and 4 assists, while shooting 42% from 3. These two, along with Jefferson will get almost all the minutes at the guard spots.
The Other Tall Person: Uconn has gone with two lineups here, a big one and a small one. Early in the year, they went big, playing Kiah Stokes here. She's a big girl...6'3, on the heavier side...a "banger" if you will...if such a thing were to exist in the women's game. The idea was to slot her in as a drop in replacement for dolson...the stanford game showed that wasn't going to work out. She simply doesn't have the passing nor offensive ability of dolson. This came to light in the stanford game, when the cardinal mostly ignored her to double stewart. She still averages 8-9 boards a game, though not much of an offensive threat. (20 minutes a game)
Since stanford, uconn has mostly gone smaller with morgan tuck. She's slightly smaller at 6'2, and less weight, though much more offensively skilled. She had 25 against ND, and has much more ability to make you think twice about doubling stewart. Unlike Stewart and KML, though, she has no 3 point shot. Recently she's getting about 30 minutes a game.
Gabby Williams (G 5'11) has gotten some garbage time minutes. Don't expect to see her unless the game is in hand.
So so so. how does duke approach this game? I'm not sure if I can give a great answer, since uconn has looked superb since making the aforementioned lineup changes after the stanford game...but i'll give it a shot:
1) don't turn it over...Duke's been absolutely killed in transition by connecticut in the past...limit those live ball turnovers! especially with moriah jefferson out there...with an offense so good, you can't give up easy ones.
2) don't take bad shots assuming you'll get the rebound...Duke is a very good rebounding team, often depending on offensive boards as a component of the offense...it won't be as much of a sure thing against connecticut...and those second chance points will be much harder to come by. Get good looks the first time.
3) temper the matchup with stewart. If E-Will can do it, great. but if she can't, and it starts looking like last year, two things need to happen: E-Will needs to not get in foul trouble, and Duke needs to adjust and bring the double. Hold stewie under 20 and there's a much better chance.
4) Don't ignore KML. as I said, she shot 7-11 last year...and shoots 55%...when you bring that double down low, #1 priority MUST be to ensure that KML is still covered.
Basically you hope you can do what stanford did: double/triple stewie to take her out of the game, and hope uconn shoots poorly from outside. Even better if you can get someone in foul trouble. Uconn has 5 threats on the floor, but not much coming off the bench.
Good luck to all. Go Huskies.