Counting down the unbeatens

[bbosbbos]

He may say whatever he wants while you may predict whatever you want. May I predict: (1) Tar Heels will be banned for 10 yrs in college sports? (2) Caripali will retire at the end of the season?

I predict Kentucky will beat UNC in the NIT final.

[Wander]

Historic? In what way?

You are aware that some team has to have the worst schedule in the land, right? TCU may be 349th, but someone else is #350 and yet another team is #351. In fact, do you know who is #350? Notre Dame.

Fair enough, but (1) I'm pretty sure TCU will pass Notre Dame in the next few weeks, and (2) there are also absolute values associated with SOS, not just relative. So it might be the case that we can compare across years and find that TCU had the worst SOS of any BCS team in the kenpom era when the non-conference season is over.

Also... TCU is now "ranked" 27th if you count others receiving votes. Ewwwwww.

[CharlestonDave]

Two things:

1) I don't believe the intention of this thread is to imply that Duke will run the table. Rather, I understand it as a way to keep some interesting perspective on the rest of the country; particularly when so many media yammering heads are calling for UK as the best team ever.

However...

2) If your predictions above involve a Duke team that is currently #2 in the nation with a perfect record losing half their games in January and February, it's possible you are on the wrong message board. I believe everyone here would be devestated to be just over .500 in conference play, given how our season has started.

*** edit ***
I am not saying that your predictions are necessarily wrong, but since you admit they are unsubstantiated and since that outcome would be extremely disappointing to the members of this board, it smells like trolling. If it isn't, I apologize for the snark and admit you are welcome to your own opinion. In light of such, I predict Kentucky will beat UNC in the NIT final.

I was not trolling and probably yes the outcome would be disappointing both to me and to members of the Board. In the latest college polls both Louisville and Virginia are ranked in the top 10 and losing to either of them at home would not be devastating.

I would love for Duke to duplicate the Indiana record of years back . What matters for this team is how they do in March in the tournament and as of right now they look like a Final Four team.

[CharlestonDave]

Why would you call this game surprisingly tough? Syracuse was supposed to be pretty good this year, but so far they've stunk. If anything, this game should be surprisingly easy compared to preseason expectations.

You are correct in your assessment of Syracuse . I just think that Boeheim will get his team sky high at the Carrier Dome to play his good friend . Certainly, I hope that I am wrong.

[ACCBBallFan]

The only team Ken Pomeroy gives a relatively high chance of going undefeated prior to league tournaments is UK

13.5% UK but has them losing to Lville 65-64

1.7 % Duke but has them losing to L-ville 72-70

1.4 % UVA but again has them losing to Lville in last regular season game 59-57

1.3 % Zona favored in all remaining games with 52% chance of winning at Utah

1.1 % Nova favored in all remaining gaes with 56% chance of winning at G-town, 58 % vs. St. John's

0.5 % Lville but has them losing first home and home to UVA 60-56

0.02 % Colorado St first loss 76-74 at New MX St

0.0 % Washington first loss 73-69 to Oklahoma on neutral court

0.0% TCU first loss 63-60 at K-State

[mgtr]

So, Louisville will be the spoiler for many teams this season, if KP analysis turns out. I have seen L'ville play parts of two games, they will be a tough out, but so will Duke. UNC - not so much!

[DukeDevil]

So, Louisville will be the spoiler for many teams this season, if KP analysis turns out. I have seen L'ville play parts of two games, they will be a tough out, but so will Duke. UNC - not so much!

If you look at the subgroup analysis for Louisville, it turns out they beat themselves in the Virginia game

[ACCBBallFan]

The only team Ken Pomeroy gives a relatively high chance of going undefeated prior to league tournaments is UK

13.5% UK (29-2 overall, 16-2 SEC) ) but has them losing to Lville 65-64

1.7 % Duke (27-4, 15-3)) but has them losing to L-ville 72-70

1.4 % UVA (26-4, 15-3) but again has them losing to Lville in last regular season game 59-57

1.3 % Zona (27-4, 14-4) favored in all remaining games with 52% chance of winning at Utah

1.1 % Nova (27-4, 14-4) favored in all remaining gaes with 56% chance of winning at G-town, 58 % vs. St. John's

0.5 % Lville (26-5, 14-4) but has them losing first home and home to UVA 60-56

0.02 % Colorado St (24-7, 11-7) first loss 76-74 at New MX St

0.0 % Washington (22-8, 11-7) first loss 73-69 to Oklahoma on neutral court

0.0% TCU (19-12) first loss 63-60 at K-State

I added the projected records to prior post above, and here are some teams that have already lost that are projected by Ken Pom to win their conference:

Wisc (27-4, 15-3)
Zags (28-3, 16-2)
TX (24-7, 12-6)
KU (24-7, 12-6)
Wich St (25-3, 16-2)
Harvard (23-5, 12-2)
Wisc - GB (23-6, 12-4)
S F Austin (25-6, 16-2)
GA State (24-7, 17-3)
San Diego St (24-7, 14-4)
E. Wash (23-8, 14-4)
V C U (23-8, 13-5)
N C Central (22-8, 14-2)
FL Gulf Coast (22-8, 13-3)
UConn (19-11, 13-5)
Coastal Carolina (22-8, 13-5)

[Tripping William]

If you look at the subgroup analysis for Louisville, it turns out they beat themselves in the Virginia game

Was Ademola Okulaja somehow involved?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was not trolling and probably yes the outcome would be disappointing both to me and to members of the Board. In the latest college polls both Louisville and Virginia are ranked in the top 10 and losing to either of them at home would not be devastating.

I would love for Duke to duplicate the Indiana record of years back . What matters for this team is how they do in March in the tournament and as of right now they look like a Final Four team.

I apologize if I was too harsh. Perhaps it was your choice of words saying "I think" as though you've come to this conclusing through a logical analysis, and you stated clearly that it was without substantiation. Maybe if you phrased it "what if," or said something like "these games will be our challenging matchups."

I just find it difficult to believe that anyone who has watched Duke's first 9 games would predict us to finish with that large a number of losses. Could it happen? Certainly.

[Edouble]

I just find it difficult to believe that anyone who has watched Duke's first 9 games would predict us to finish with that large a number of losses. Could it happen? Certainly.

How many losses do you think we will have?

CharlestonDave predicted 3 or 4 losses: "I think we will lose at Louisville, at Virginia, split with UNC, and possibly lose at Notre Dame," with tough games at Miami, at St. Johns's and at Syracuse. I assume we are winning these tough games, or else he would call those losses too.

I predicted two losses on the season, I think in the pre-Elon thread. Would you agree with that assessment?

[arnie]

How many losses do you think we will have?

CharlestonDave predicted 3 or 4 losses: "I think we will lose at Louisville, at Virginia, split with UNC, and possibly lose at Notre Dame," with tough games at Miami, at St. Johns's and at Syracuse. I assume we are winning these tough games, or else he would call those losses too.

I predicted two losses on the season, I think in the pre-Elon thread. Would you agree with that assessment?

I also thought Charleston Dave's prediction was reasonable. It's a long tough ACC season and coupled with the game at St Johns, I would be happy with only 3-4 losses. That reg season total should give us a 1 seed and keep us out of the dreaded 2-15 matchup.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

We will go 40-0. Kentucky will go 39-1. So it is written, so it shall be. GTHc 9F!

[rsvman]

We will go 40-0. Kentucky will go 39-1. So it is written, so it shall be. GTHc 9F!

Ozzie, too bad it is too late for UNC to 0-40.

They could still lose all their remaining games, though, so there's that.

[SCMatt33]

Ozzie, too bad it is too late for UNC to 0-40.

They could still lose all their remaining games, though, so there's that.

They don't need to lose the rest of their games, just lose in the semifinals (T-3rd) of the NIT. They deserve a banner season, too.

[ACCBBallFan]

Looks like each of the unbeatens have a Merry Christmas and enjoy home cooking and/or byes except Zona plays at UNLV.

At least one goes down next Saturday as UK visits L-ville, and another (Colorado St) not favored to win

Date Rk Opponent Result Location

Sun Dec 21 UVA 26 Harvard W, 58-48 89% Home

Mon Dec 22 Color St 208 Charleston Southern W, 77-64 90% Home
Mon Dec 22 Washington 172 Tulane W, 75-61 91% Home
Mon Dec 22 T C U 351 Grambling St. W, 74-48 99% Home

Tue Dec 23 Zona 135 UNLV W, 71-61 84% Away
Tue Dec 23 NOVA 269 NJIT W, 85-59 98% Home
Tue Dec 23 L-Ville 268 Cal St. Northridge W, 82-56 99% Home

Sat Dec 27 L-Ville 1 Kentucky L, 64-63 45% Home
Sat Dec 27 Color St 101 New Mexico St. L, 77-76 45% Away
Sat Dec 27 UK 5 Louisville W, 64-63 55% Away

Sun Dec 28 Washington 148 Stony Brook W, 74-62 89% Home

Mon Dec 29 Duke 100 Toledo W, 87-65 96% Home
Mon Dec 29 T C U 326 Tennessee St. W, 72-53 97% Home

Tue Dec 30 UVA 79 Davidson W, 75-58 95% Home
Tue Dec 30 L-Ville 105 Long Beach St. W, 77-59 95% Home

Wed Dec 31 Color St 56 Boise St. W, 70-67 65% Home
Wed Dec 31 NOVA 44 Butler W, 70-59 87% Home
Wed Dec 31 Duke 78 Wofford W, 73-56 95% Home

[mbwalker]

Looks like each of the unbeatens have a Merry Christmas and enjoy home cooking and/or byes except Zona plays at UNLV.

And Zona loses, 71-67. (And that's to a team that lost to Arizona State by 22 on Dec. 3 and Utah by 13 just three days ago. Just because the experts predicted that Arizona had a 84% chance of winning, they still have to play the games.)

[uh_no]

And Zona loses, 71-67. (And that's to a team that lost to Arizona State by 22 on Dec. 3 and Utah by 13 just three days ago. Just because the experts predicted that Arizona had a 84% chance of winning, they still have to play the games.)

Yeah

I wasn't sold on arizona, and seem vindicated...their only real win was gonzaga, who themselves is overhyped IMO...and that was in overtime....they have a pretty weak schedule the rest of the way, and may yet end up with a 1 seed....but I would be surprised for them to make the elite 8.

[Saratoga2]

And Zona loses, 71-67. (And that's to a team that lost to Arizona State by 22 on Dec. 3 and Utah by 13 just three days ago. Just because the experts predicted that Arizona had a 84% chance of winning, they still have to play the games.)

This can be read as AZ had a 16% chance of losing and so they did. Sometimes that matchups and/or style of play can confuse a team who is an obvious favorite. We will have many opportunities to stumble as well. So far we have faced teams with different looks and haven't been tripped up. UCONN was a long, quick and aggressive team. Wisconsin an experienced team who had gone far in the tourney last year and if you missed it, Stanford who took down Texas last night. We seem pretty resilient. If we stay healthy we will probably have a low number of losses.

Yes Louisville will be a big challenge and UVA has been hard to solve this year. Yes, there are other teams that can give us trouble. We may well be favored in each of our games unless Louisville can beat Kentucky Saturday. If they do, they will become a favorite over Duke. It would be great to get to the tournament as a #1 seed.

[Kedsy]

This can be read as AZ had a 16% chance of losing and so they did.

Coincidentally, 16% was the same Pomeroy-predicted chance of Duke losing to Mercer last season. And they did also, but it was still pretty surprising.