Phase II 2014-15 MBB (Elon through Wofford) - Crowdsource Request

[sagegrouse]

In the too-good to-be-true-category, can we keep --

Carving up the opponents like leftover turkey? The guys have been speedy and aggressive in the running game and easily penetrating the defense in the half court.

Shooting lights out -- 40 percent from three-point range and over 60 percent inside the arc?

Bringing in the best sub I can remember? Rasheed comes in and takes over the game.

[Kedsy]

Bringing in the best sub I can remember? Rasheed comes in and takes over the game.

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

[bbosbbos]

Our opponents are just too weak to answer these questions for now.

OMG, in ncaa there is only one better team than Wisconsin, it is called Calimaliiii led Fried Chicken. So you think we need to meet Fried Chicken for a real challenge?

[CDu]

OMG, in ncaa there is only one better team than Wisconsin, it is called Calimaliiii led Fried Chicken. So you think we need to meet Fried Chicken for a real challenge?

I was referring to our opponents in the next phase, not the previous games.

[CDu]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

I seem to recall Jon Scheyer being a pretty adequate 6th man too.

[bbosbbos]

We will play Uconn in Izod Center on December 18. I remember Uconn used to have very good guards, shooting 3s and slashing to rim very often. I do not know if this 2014 Uconn plays in a similar way. Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago. If I were a coach I will try to employ a small lineup to test Duke D.

[sagegrouse]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

[CDu]

We will play Uconn in Izod Center on December 18. I remember Uconn used to have very good guards, shooting 3s and slashing to rim very often. I do not know if this 2014 Uconn plays in a similar way. Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago. If I were a coach I will try to employ a small lineup to test Duke D.

UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.

[Clay Feet POF]

No offense, but unless you've suffered amnesia lately this statement doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Here's a list of Duke subs from 1998 to 2002 (I assume you remember at least some of these):

1998: Will Avery
1999: Corey Maggette
2000: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Chris Duhon (and when Duhon started at the end of the year, Nate James)
2002: Daniel Ewing

Plus a few others you might remember, off the top of my head:

1990: Bill McCaffrey
1989: Christian Laettner (most of the season)
1985: David Henderson

There have been a lot of other great Duke players to come off the bench, although perhaps many of them weren't ready for prime time yet. And I suppose reasonable minds could differ whether Rasheed is a "better sub" than a few of the above. But clearly not all.

So, sorry, but Rasheed Sulaimon can't possibly be the best sub you remember.

Let's live in the moment, its a great feeling, and remember it his Dream.

[Kedsy]

If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

I wasn't being snarky. I'm simply flabbergasted that you believe Rasheed is the best sub we've had in your memory.

Based on the eye test, which admittedly is subjective and arbitrary, I personally don't think Rasheed is currently playing anywhere close to an NBA level right now, nor do I believe he's anywhere close to being the best player on the court. When I watch the games I see a huge dropoff when Rasheed comes in and Tyus, Quinn, Justise, or Amile goes out. Which of course may be a statement about our other players, rather than Rasheed (but still argues that he isn't the best player on the court).

But, like I say, the eye test is subjective. An objective statistical look at Duke's top subs over the past 20 years (plus a couple extras from the '80s because they were really good) supports the claim that Rasheed is not the best sub we've ever had, or even particularly near the top in that category. Looking over the chart below, I'd rate him somewhere in the middle. Out of the 26 guys I've charted, Rasheed is 18th in minutes, tied for 11th in points, 23rd in rebounds, 6th in assists, tied for 16th in blocks, tied for 10th in steals, 11th in FG%, tied for 9th in 3-pt pct, and 9th in FT%. That's not bad, considering his low-ish minutes, but it's nowhere near the best.

Year	Player		starts		mpg	ppg	rpg	apg	bpg	spg	FG%	3-pct	FT%
2015	Sulaimon	0 of 8		18.4	7.4	1.6	2.0	0.1	0.8	47.7	36.8	71.4
2014	A Dawkins	4 of 33		13.7	7.9	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.5	44.4	42.1	81.1
2013	Thornton	6 of 36		22.0	3.6	2.3	2.2	0.1	1.3	40.6	39.2	68.0
2012	A Dawkins	14 of 34	21.0	8.4	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.4	40.0	39.2	73.9
2012 	Miles Plumlee	16 of 34	20.5	6.6	7.1	0.5	0.9	0.5	61.0	0.0	63.2
2011	A Dawkins	7 of 37		21.0	8.0	1.9	0.6	0.1	0.6	48.1	42.7	79.1
2011 	Miles Plumlee	15 of 37	17.0	4.8	4.9	0.4	0.5	0.6	51.8	0.0	59.2
2010	Zoubek		16 of 40	18.7	5.6	7.7	1.0	0.8	0.7	63.8	0.0	55.1
2010	Mason Plumlee	1 of 34		14.1	3.7	3.1	0.9	0.9	0.5	46.2	25.0	54.3
2009	Paulus		5 of 36		16.1	4.9	1.3	1.3	0.0	0.8	37.3	33.6	69.2
2008	Scheyer		1 of 34		28.3	11.7	3.9	2.4	0.3	1.4	44.4	38.8	88.9
2007	G Henderson	10 of 36	19.3	6.8	2.9	1.1	0.3	0.5	45.1	32.0	62.7
2006	Nelson		7 of 36		21.5	7.1	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.8	45.2	41.0	64.9
2006	Melchionni	5 of 36		19.9	5.7	3.2	0.9	0.1	1.0	36.4	32.0	66.7
2005	Nelson		2 of 33		19.2	6.2	4.5	0.8	0.3	0.8	40.0	31.9	53.2
2004	Randolph	10 of 37	19.2	7.0	4.5	0.5	1.6	0.7	59.1	20.0	66.7
2003	Randolph	6 of 33		13.5	7.4	3.9	0.3	0.9	0.5	50.4	36.8	68.3
2002	Ewing		0 of 35		18.2	6.5	2.2	1.3	0.0	0.9	47.9	45.7	68.6
2001	Duhon		10 of 39	27.8	7.2	3.2	4.5	0.0	2.0	42.4	36.1	65.0
2000	Dunleavy	2 of 34		24.1	9.1	1.3	1.7	0.5	1.1	46.0	35.1	73.8
1999	Maggette	3 of 39		17.7	10.6	3.9	1.5	0.4	0.7	52.5	34.5	57.7
1998	Avery		0 of 35		19.3	8.5	2.0	2.5	0.0	1.0	42.7	29.6	74.4
1997	Price		11 of 33	21.4	9.4	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.7	39.4	29.6	66.3
1996	Wojo		4 of 31		21.8	3.4	2.1	2.7	0.0	0.9	31.8	27.9	76.2
1989	Laettner	16 of 36	16.9	8.9	4.7	1.2	0.8	1.0	72.3	100.0	72.7
1985	D Henderson	1 of 31		23.6	11.3	3.5	1.8	0.1	1.3	49.8	0.0	62.0

Having said all that, of course I'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player, though he does seem to go too fast and frenetic sometimes. I fully expect him to keep up his current pace, or even improve, though since I don't think his performance to date has been so otherworldly, that probably isn't as impressive a statement on my part as it is on your part when you ask the question.

[DukieInBrasil]

If you don't like my opinion, perhaps you'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player and wonder, as I do, whether he can keep it up. As to your snarky comment about my emory, I was friends with Mullins and Buckley the elder and have followed Duke hoops closely for 55 years.

Rasheed is changing the game on both offense and defense the minute he comes on the court. Rasheed's performance IMHO is ahead of everyone on the list. Rasheed is playing at an NBA level today. David Henderson was second. One looks at Suleimon's play and says, "This is the best player on the court; why isn't he starting?" Of course, it helps that he's an upperclassmen -- rookies McCaffrey and Dunleavy were a little on the weak side and not playing at this level. Maggette, although he was strong as a freshman, did not have the experience.

Reasonable minds can, and in this case will, disagree. I haven't followed Duke for 55 years, but Sulaimon might be in my top 5 6th man at Duke. Maggette, Dunleavy, Duhon and Fr. Laettner are all ahead of him. Sulaimon has had one good game as a 6th man, and it was an excellent performance in a big-time game, so i'm not trying to disparage him. It takes more than one good game to be the best.

I also will disagree with your opinions that he is NBA level right now, that he's the best player on the court when he comes in and that he should be starting. If he's on the court with Jahlil, Tyus, Quinn and sometimes even Justise or Amile, then he's not the best, or often second, third or fourth best. If he continues to improve on the level of play he displayed vs. Wisconsin, then i would begin to agree with both of those statements. He played well vs. Whiskey, and i hope he sustains or even improves on it, but it's gonna take more than one game to convince me of any of the things you mentioned.

[azzefkram]

Quick and strong guards are still a headache to our D. For example, the Jackson guy, 6-3 guard of Wisconsin, scored 26 pts on us few days ago.

I wouldn't read too much into Jackson's performance. IIRC someone in the postgame thread mentioned that he is capable of big games. Also, it's a tad easier to drive when surrounded by 4 good shooters. That shouldn't be an issue with UConn.

UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.

As someone who is subjected to UConn far more than anyone should be, I mostly agree with this. Boatwright can be very good but he tweaked an ankle in the Texas game. They say he's day to day but ankles can linger. Hamilton is a good player but a freshman. Brimah will probably be really good by his senior year but is more of an athlete than a basketball player at this point. The only big I'd be worried about with him is Semi. Calhoun's great nephew, Omar, has been injured and when he has played has been a bit underwhelming. Purvis is the guy we remember from State.

The thing I worry about with UConn is their nasty habit of playing to the competition. Texas need a last second three to beat them. Even with Rick Barnes at helm, Texas should have beaten them comfortably.

UConn is a bit more than just Boatwright, not not a whole lot more.

[Kedsy]

I haven't followed Duke for 55 years, but Sulaimon might be in my top 5 6th man at Duke. Maggette, Dunleavy, Duhon and Fr. Laettner are all ahead of him.

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

[DukieInBrasil]

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

I think Scheyer may have been the best in the 6th man role, as opposed to just be a really good non-starter. I'm not sure exactly what the difference between the two is, but to me Jon embodied the essence of a 6th starter, as opposed to Maggette, for example, who played phenomenally well (at times) off the bench, but wasn't as versatile as Jon. I guess, Jon could come in for any number the starters if they were struggling and play would improve, whereas i don't think of Maggette could have done that. Maggette came in to score points.
And in that sense, Sulaimon could fill that 6th man role very well for this team. In fact, his game vs. Wisc was a good example of doing just that. If he can do that consistently, he'll belong in the conversation. I hope he can.

[ACCBBallFan]

UConn isn't the same UConn of years past. They just lost to Yale. They have one good quick guard in Boatwright, though.

I am not sure facing a small lineup is to our disadvantage. Go small and Jefferson and Winslow kill you on the glass. And in the event that we have trouble with speed, we can go with as many as four guards (Sulaimon and M Jones replacing our forwards) and still be putting much more talent on the floor than our opponents.

Boatright played 35 minutes but poorly (6 pts, 0-4 from 3, 6 asst 4 turnovers) as he was playing hurt and Purvis only played 8 minutes as both were playing hurt.

Should be another interesting test for big Jah facing Amida Brimah, and vice versa.

[sagegrouse]

I wasn't being snarky. I'm simply flabbergasted that you believe Rasheed is the best sub we've had in your memory.

Based on the eye test, which admittedly is subjective and arbitrary, I personally don't think Rasheed is currently playing anywhere close to an NBA level right now, nor do I believe he's anywhere close to being the best player on the court. When I watch the games I see a huge dropoff when Rasheed comes in and Tyus, Quinn, Justise, or Amile goes out. Which of course may be a statement about our other players, rather than Rasheed (but still argues that he isn't the best player on the court).

But, like I say, the eye test is subjective. An objective statistical look at Duke's top subs over the past 20 years (plus a couple extras from the '80s because they were really good) supports the claim that Rasheed is not the best sub we've ever had, or even particularly near the top in that category. Looking over the chart below, I'd rate him somewhere in the middle. Out of the 26 guys I've charted, Rasheed is 18th in minutes, tied for 11th in points, 23rd in rebounds, 6th in assists, tied for 16th in blocks, tied for 10th in steals, 11th in FG%, tied for 9th in 3-pt pct, and 9th in FT%. That's not bad, considering his low-ish minutes, but it's nowhere near the best.

Having said all that, of course I'll agree that Rasheed is a heckuva player, though he does seem to go too fast and frenetic sometimes. I fully expect him to keep up his current pace, or even improve, though since I don't think his performance to date has been so otherworldly, that probably isn't as impressive a statement on my part as it is on your part when you ask the question.

No reason for a dispute -- I was just trying to feed ideas to the OP, and I thought that Rasheed was phenomenal against Wisconsin. The Phase II question is "Will he play exceptional as a sub?"

[jv001]

As CDu rightly pointed out, Jon Scheyer in 2008 certainly belongs in this conversation as well. As do potentially a few others.

As does, Billy McCaffrey as a 6th man for the Blue Devils. GoDuke!

[gumbomoop]

This is really a Phase 3 and beyond concern. I'm a little worried about the relatively low FT % of Jahlil, Justise, and Amile. The biggest concern would be that some teams will hack-a-Jahlil if his FT % stays down near 50%. But even in the absence of such a blatant strategy, Duke might drop an otherwise clearly winnable game or two if these 3 guys don't consistently get close to 67%.

Of our top 6 players, Quinn is excellent at FTs, but so far hasn't gotten to the line much. Rasheed is not quite excellent this season, but solid; while he thinks he gets fouled a lot driving to the rim, the refs don't always agree. Tyus both gets to the line a fair number of times and hits a high %.

But those other 3, all do and can be expected to continue to get to the line, but don't shoot FTs well enough to inspire full confidence. So Duke's current team FT% -- as it is just an ok 68.5 % -- seems inflated a bit. [Including Marshall's miraculous 100%.]

I'm not so much concerned about protecting, say, a 5-7 point lead in the final 2 minutes, as Quinn, Tyus, and Rasheed would have the ball. But against good teams, it's conceivable that Duke will occasionally have trouble actually having a late lead, if our 3 mediocre FT shooters have missed more than a few that game.

I wouldn't want to see those 3 struggling down around 55-60% halfway through conference play.

[fidel]

After reading on the front page for the umpteenth time how historically great this team is, I thought it wise that we add:

Can this team ignore the hype and concentrate on the next game?

[superdave]

According to KenPom, this year's squad is averaging 68.0 possessions per 40 minutes (#87 in country).

Previous seasons -
2014 - 66.0 possessions (#190)
2013 - 67.6 (#96)
2012 - 67.6 (#96) (I double check...same #s two years in a row)
2011 - 69.3 (#51)
2010 - 65.5 (#249)

So Duke's pace has not changed dramatically the last several years. But in 2002 we were at 75.3 (#13) and above 70 in 2003, 2006, 2008. It makes sense that we ran (a lot) with JWill, Duhon, etc.

Does anyone expect us to push the pace more during conference play?

Are we leaving something on the table if we dont hit 70+ possession considering we have a lot of athletes and two PGs on the floor?