NBA 2014-15 General Discussion Thread

[flyingdutchdevil]

This game was even less close than the 24 point score suggests. The Bulls didn't even have to play their starters for the last 16 minutes of the game. Rose and Noah got a lot of rest, playing just ~20 minutes. The Bulls' second unit (and beyond) got a LOT of run.

Dunleavy didn't score and was largely uninvolved on offense (he is basically playing the Trajan Langdon catch-and-shoot role for the Bulls), but he played really well defensively. With the Bulls' defensive ace Jimmy Butler sitting out with a sprained thumb, Dunleavy was assigned to Carmelo. He held Anthony to a very mediocre night. Dunleavy is certainly not known for his defense, so that was a pleasant surprise. There is a reasonable chance that Butler is out for the next game too, so life gets tougher for Dunleavy as the Bulls face the Cavs on Friday.

As for the non-Duke Bulls, it was a bit of a cakewalk after a shaky first 6 minutes. Gasol and Gibson absolutely dominated the Knicks' bigs, each topping 20 points and combining for nearly 20 rebounds. Noah was a big presence as well, blocking 3 shots in about 20 minutes of action.

Rose didn't have to play much, but he looked very solid, getting 13 points (on 3-7 from the field), 5 assists, and 2 steals in his 20ish minutes of play.

Hopefully Butler is back for the Cleveland game. The Bulls should have a big edge inside and should match up well at PG, but without Butler (who is generally terrific against James) they have very little in the way of defense against LeBron.

Hard to tell how much of this was the Knicks' futility (they looked really bad in their triangle debut) and how much was the Bulls looking great (probably a healthy amount of both). But it was a good look for the Bulls as nearly everything was working for them in their opener.

Bulls definitely look good. They need to nickname this team, "Big Man Dunk City", because that's all the highlights showed. I forgot that Gasol can still dunk!

This Bulls team is a huge threat to the Cavs. I'd be shocked if the Eastern Champ didn't involve either one of these teams. The Bulls are so solid from 1-5, but if one key player goes down, there goes the whole season. In order for the Bulls to have a chance at the title, they need a healthy Rose, Noah, Gasol, Gibson, and Butler. An injury to any of these players would severely reduce their chances. And given the Bulls's injury history, I'm not so optimistic.

The Cavs need a healthy Love, Lebron, and Irving (not a given). But an injury to their supporting staff isn't as detrimental.

[CDu]

Totally agree that a season-ending injury to any of the Bulls' top-5 players would bury their chances. But aside from Rose, that has not happened. I am hardly more concerned about that than I would be a season-ending injury for the Cavs. Flukey injuries can happen to anyone.

I totally expect the East to be decided by Chicago and Cleveland. And I don't expect anyone else to be close.

[CDu]

Rough start for the Cavs. Losing at home to the Knicks. Irving had a solid but not spectacular night. Love was solid too. But LeBron really struggled and the Cavs' bench was absolutely nonexistent. Not the best start to the homecoming.

Thankfully for the Cavs they get a chance for redemption against the Bulls tomorrow.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Rough start for the Cavs. Losing at home to the Knicks. Irving had a solid but not spectacular night. Love was solid too. But LeBron really struggled and the Cavs' bench was absolutely nonexistent. Not the best start to the homecoming.

Thankfully for the Cavs they get a chance for redemption against the Bulls tomorrow.

I hate to say it but I am so glad they lost and Lebron looked like garbage. I know it won't last, but as a Heat fan It makes me smile just a tiny bit. Now I fully expect them to get it together and be a solid contender down the road, but with that horrible bench I don't see them winning the Championship, probably won't even win the East this season. Still have a long ways to go though.

[_Gary]

I'll go on record right now and say that after tonight, my worries about what I was seeing from LeBron in preseason have been justified. He's not the same player with the weight off. There was no explosiveness. No strength. He basically fumbled the ball away on multiple occasions. Perhaps he proves me wrong quickly, but I think losing that weight took away the one thing he had on everyone else - a huge, muscular freight train of a man on a basketball court that couldn't be stopped once he set his mind on driving to the hole. He tried that over and over tonight and looked like a pinball instead of a wrecking ball. Not a great sign for the Cavs. Kyrie and Love were fine. I thought Kyrie was pretty darned good tonight and expect him to deliver similar numbers throughout the year, with assists going up as his teammates make more shots. He was very close on several poke away steals and I think he'll be good for couple of those on most nights.

But if LeBron doesn't pick it up then it will be long year in Cleveland. I expect he will play better, but I'm telling everyone that the weight loss was NOT beneficial to him.

[CDu]

I'll go on record right now and say that after tonight, my worries about what I was seeing from LeBron in preseason have been justified. He's not the same player with the weight off. There was no explosiveness. No strength. He basically fumbled the ball away on multiple occasions. Perhaps he proves me wrong quickly, but I think losing that weight took away the one thing he had on everyone else - a huge, muscular freight train of a man on a basketball court that couldn't be stopped once he set his mind on driving to the hole. He tried that over and over tonight and looked like a pinball instead of a wrecking ball. Not a great sign for the Cavs. Kyrie and Love were fine. I thought Kyrie was pretty darned good tonight and expect him to deliver similar numbers throughout the year, with assists going up as his teammates make more shots. He was very close on several poke away steals and I think he'll be good for couple of those on most nights.

But if LeBron doesn't pick it up then it will be long year in Cleveland. I expect he will play better, but I'm telling everyone that the weight loss was NOT beneficial to him.

I agree somewhat with your concern about James. But it was just one game, and an emotional one at that.

The challenge for Irving will be the same as it has been for him for a while: can he succeed against the better PG. Irving has a bit of a reputation for killing weaker PG and struggling against the better PG. If Coeveland is going to get where they want to go, they are going to need James to be James and Irving to not just be a bumslayer.

I am not concerned yet about the Cavs. They have a tough assignment tonight (much easier if Butler doesn't play though), but it is a long season.

[ice-9]

Irving has a bit of a reputation

Really?

[Billy Dat]

I hate to say it but I am so glad they lost and Lebron looked like garbage. I know it won't last, but as a Heat fan It makes me smile just a tiny bit. Now I fully expect them to get it together and be a solid contender down the road, but with that horrible bench I don't see them winning the Championship, probably won't even win the East this season. Still have a long ways to go though.

In the words of former Boston College Coach Jim O'Brien, "When is somebody going to step up and give these kids the credit they deserve?!?"

Which kids?

Travis Wear, Cole Aldrich, Jason Smith, Shane Larkin, Quincy Acy - your 2014-15 NY Knicks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Having watched the Knicks play the Bulls and the Cavs on consecutive nights, a lot of things are apparent. The Bulls are so much better defensively than the Cavs and their bench is much better. Still, though, the Cavs were unlucky to be facing a Knicks team that got humiliated the night before. I give Derek Fisher credit because he made adjustments right away, he brought STAT off the bench, barely played Hardaway Jr. and went big to counter the Cavs lack of size. Trust me, everything went the Knicks way from some crazy late shot clock prayers going in to getting the benefit of nearly every call. But, I will take it!

The Cavs are going to need a lot of time to gel. They aren't connected on either end of the floor, they were overpassing, Kyrie kept resorting to going one-on-one, Lebron sucked, they don't run through Love enough, etc. it was that kind of night for them.

Cavs v Bulls should be awesome tonight!!!!!

[CDu]

Really?

Really. Irving's career averages for ORtg and DRtg are 109 (ORtg) and 110 (DRtg). That indicates that Irving is a well-above average offensive player and a well-below average defensive player on average.

But here are his numbers against the six best teams over the past several years:
Miami (7 games): 98 ORtg, 114 DRtg
Chicago (7 games): 100 ORtg, 122 DRtg
LA Clippers (3 games): 100 ORtg, 101 DRtg
Indiana (7 games): 95 ORtg, 105 DRtg
OKC (4 games): 125 ORtg, 108 DRtg
San Antonio (5 games): 88 ORtg, 122 DRtg

Average (33 games): 99.7 ORtg, 113.1 DRtg

Aside from playing very well offensively against OKC, he's been pretty consistently below-average-to-terrible offensively and below-average-to-terrible defensively against the league's best teams.

I'd say that, coming into this season, the three biggest knocks on Irving have been as follows:
1. Very bad defense
2. Doesn't make his teammates better/doesn't lead his team to wins
3. Doesn't play well against the league's best

These next couple of years are big for him and a huge chance to change that narrative. Hopefully for him he can make that jump.

[_Gary]

Really. Irving's career averages for ORtg and DRtg are 109 (ORtg) and 110 (DRtg). That indicates that Irving is a well-above average offensive player and a well-below average defensive player on average.

But here are his numbers against the six best teams over the past several years:
Miami (7 games): 98 ORtg, 114 DRtg
Chicago (7 games): 100 ORtg, 122 DRtg
LA Clippers (3 games): 100 ORtg, 101 DRtg
Indiana (7 games): 95 ORtg, 105 DRtg
OKC (4 games): 125 ORtg, 108 DRtg
San Antonio (5 games): 88 ORtg, 122 DRtg

Average (33 games): 99.7 ORtg, 113.1 DRtg

Aside from playing very well offensively against OKC, he's been pretty consistently below-average-to-terrible offensively and below-average-to-terrible defensively against the league's best teams.

I'd say that, coming into this season, the three biggest knocks on Irving have been as follows:
1. Very bad defense
2. Doesn't make his teammates better/doesn't lead his team to wins
3. Doesn't play well against the league's best

These next couple of years are big for him and a huge chance to change that narrative. Hopefully for him he can make that jump.

I appreciate the stats, CDU. And I basically agree concerning the first two points you raised. I think the sample size is still a bit small to judge the third point, but that's just me. I'm absolutely confident that Kyrie, now that he actually has guys to work with (although another spot up shooter ala Ray Allen would help), will have an excellent year. The guy was an NBA All-Star last year. Heck, he was the MVP of the All-Star game (say what you want about those games). And the same was true this summer with Team USA. So I'm looking only at the recent past when he's been playing with other very good players to base my predictions on.

My biggest concern for the Cavs early on will be for them to learn to how to play with one another. Kyrie is about the best ankle-breaker in the NBA right now. He can't be stopped one on one when he wants to drive. Heck, he'll usually make two guys look bad when he really wants to go to the hole. What Lebron and Kevin and the others have to understand is how to get open so he can get them the ball. I think they'll figure that out as they move forward. But Lebron has got to be a bunch better than he was last night, and I'm not convinced it was just all about opening night jitters. I honestly believe he's lost too much weight and that's going to affect his ability to drive and score with contact. As I said above, he was more like a pinball than a wrecking ball last night when he tried to drive to the hole in traffic. It just wasn't the Lebron I've seen every other season of his career. Something was distinctly different last night and the weight issue is the only thing I can pin it on right now. But we'll see. Time always gives us the correct picture.

[kAzE]

I'll go on record right now and say that after tonight, my worries about what I was seeing from LeBron in preseason have been justified. He's not the same player with the weight off. There was no explosiveness. No strength. He basically fumbled the ball away on multiple occasions. Perhaps he proves me wrong quickly, but I think losing that weight took away the one thing he had on everyone else - a huge, muscular freight train of a man on a basketball court that couldn't be stopped once he set his mind on driving to the hole. He tried that over and over tonight and looked like a pinball instead of a wrecking ball. Not a great sign for the Cavs. Kyrie and Love were fine. I thought Kyrie was pretty darned good tonight and expect him to deliver similar numbers throughout the year, with assists going up as his teammates make more shots. He was very close on several poke away steals and I think he'll be good for couple of those on most nights.

But if LeBron doesn't pick it up then it will be long year in Cleveland. I expect he will play better, but I'm telling everyone that the weight loss was NOT beneficial to him.

Ehhh, I'm not buying it. At least not yet. Losing weight should have little to no effect on his jumper, and that just wasn't falling for him last night. It also should have no effect on his passing, which was equally bad. He doesn't lose the title of best player alive because of 1 bad game. It was a really overhyped and emotional game. (Did you see how many short film LeBron commercials there were? It was insane) He'll get back to dominating.

[Ichabod Drain]

Is there a chance the Thunder could miss the playoffs this year? With the possibility of Durant and Westbrook as well as other players being out for an extended period of time it's going to be a rough start to the season. The western conference is already extremely tough and they're off to an 0-2 start. They could be in a big hole by the time they're back at full strength.

It seems Lance will have an opportunity to get significant minutes for a while.

[CDu]

I appreciate the stats, CDU. And I basically agree concerning the first two points you raised. I think the sample size is still a bit small to judge the third point, but that's just me. I'm absolutely confident that Kyrie, now that he actually has guys to work with (although another spot up shooter ala Ray Allen would help), will have an excellent year. The guy was an NBA All-Star last year. Heck, he was the MVP of the All-Star game (say what you want about those games). And the same was true this summer with Team USA. So I'm looking only at the recent past when he's been playing with other very good players to base my predictions on.

Totally agree that it's a small sample for point #3. Unfortunately, that's really all the NBA information we have to go on so far in his career. The All-Star game (where nobody plays defense) and the FIBA games were against inferior competition. So neither of those really refute point 3.

But I'm certainly open to the possibility that he makes a huge jump this year. He may very well be the type of player who doesn't succeed without good/great teammates because he too easily reverts to "hero ball" when things don't go well. And with James and Love taking the roles of #1 and #2, he may no longer feel the pressure to carry the team. Though from the post-game comments in game 1, it sounds like he is still working on learning to play well with others and follow the gameplan, as it doesn't sound like he and Blatt were on the same page last night.

My biggest concern for the Cavs early on will be for them to learn to how to play with one another. Kyrie is about the best ankle-breaker in the NBA right now. He can't be stopped one on one when he wants to drive. Heck, he'll usually make two guys look bad when he really wants to go to the hole. What Lebron and Kevin and the others have to understand is how to get open so he can get them the ball. I think they'll figure that out as they move forward. But Lebron has got to be a bunch better than he was last night, and I'm not convinced it was just all about opening night jitters. I honestly believe he's lost too much weight and that's going to affect his ability to drive and score with contact. As I said above, he was more like a pinball than a wrecking ball last night when he tried to drive to the hole in traffic. It just wasn't the Lebron I've seen every other season of his career. Something was distinctly different last night and the weight issue is the only thing I can pin it on right now. But we'll see. Time always gives us the correct picture.

I think you may be overstating Irving's unstoppable-ness in this paragraph. But aside from that, I agree with this. Irving has been used to being the lead dog throughout his career. So has James. And Love has been used to the offense running through him in the post and on the perimeter (in pick and roll situations). Only James has had to coexist with another ball-dominant superstar before, and even then it wasn't long before said superstar (Wade) deferred to him. So that will be a constant question this season I think.

The other concern I have is that both Love and Irving have been BAD defensive players throughout their NBA careers. Will they be able to improve defensively enough to win a championship? They can likely outscore many teams in the league, but that won't work against the elite teams.

I don't (yet) share your concern about James. I'm going to need to see more than just the one bad game (albeit a TERRIBLE game) before I'm concerned about his weight loss. Let's see what happens tonight.

[tommy]

Totally agree that a season-ending injury to any of the Bulls' top-5 players would bury their chances. But aside from Rose, that has not happened. I am hardly more concerned about that than I would be a season-ending injury for the Cavs. Flukey injuries can happen to anyone.

I totally expect the East to be decided by Chicago and Cleveland. And I don't expect anyone else to be close.

If I was a Bulls fan, the guy I'd be worried about would be Gasol. He's missed significant time the last two seasons due to injury (playing in 60 games last year and only 49 the year before that) and has never been a particularly durable player. He's played in 66 or less games in seven of his 14 NBA seasons. Also, in the last two years, besides missing a lot of games, when he did play, his minutes and his shooting percentages have been close to if not the two lowest of his career. Now maybe with a better team around him, guys like Gibson to spell him, he'll be able to pace himself and be more effective over a longer period without getting hurt, but the guy is 34 years old and is in his 15th NBA season. Coach Thibs may want to consider limiting his minutes a la Popovich during the regular season in the hopes of having him relatively healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

[Billy Dat]

If I was a Bulls fan, the guy I'd be worried about would be Gasol. He's missed significant time the last two seasons due to injury (playing in 60 games last year and only 49 the year before that) and has never been a particularly durable player. He's played in 66 or less games in seven of his 14 NBA seasons. Also, in the last two years, besides missing a lot of games, when he did play, his minutes and his shooting percentages have been close to if not the two lowest of his career. Now maybe with a better team around him, guys like Gibson to spell him, he'll be able to pace himself and be more effective over a longer period without getting hurt, but the guy is 34 years old and is in his 15th NBA season. Coach Thibs may want to consider limiting his minutes a la Popovich during the regular season in the hopes of having him relatively healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

I think Pau is also a huge key for Chicago's offense to develop more versatility and fluidity (thank you, Clyde Frazier, for the loquation inspiration). But, one dude I forgot about was the acquisition of Aaron Brooks - he is a real problem to deal with off the bench (for other teams, I mean). All of a sudden, you've got a second five with Gibson, Brooks and McBuckets not to mention Mirotic. Big time.

[kAzE]

If I was a Bulls fan, the guy I'd be worried about would be Gasol. He's missed significant time the last two seasons due to injury (playing in 60 games last year and only 49 the year before that) and has never been a particularly durable player. He's played in 66 or less games in seven of his 14 NBA seasons. Also, in the last two years, besides missing a lot of games, when he did play, his minutes and his shooting percentages have been close to if not the two lowest of his career. Now maybe with a better team around him, guys like Gibson to spell him, he'll be able to pace himself and be more effective over a longer period without getting hurt, but the guy is 34 years old and is in his 15th NBA season. Coach Thibs may want to consider limiting his minutes a la Popovich during the regular season in the hopes of having him relatively healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

Gasol, Rose, and Noah are all injury risks. Jimmy Butler (who is currently dealing with a hand injury) has been near the top of the league in recent years in minutes (I believe he led the league in minutes last year), and is also a key player in Chicago's title hopes. The Bulls have Taj Gibson, though, who can step in if either of the starting bigs go down. The Cavs can ill afford an injury to any of their stars or big men. They don't have any big man depth, unless you consider Tristan Thompson, Shawn Marion, and Brendan Haywood above replacement level. I think Thompson and Marion are in the "just another guy" category, and Haywood in the "keep gettin' them checks" territory.

[CDu]

If I was a Bulls fan, the guy I'd be worried about would be Gasol. He's missed significant time the last two seasons due to injury (playing in 60 games last year and only 49 the year before that) and has never been a particularly durable player. He's played in 66 or less games in seven of his 14 NBA seasons. Also, in the last two years, besides missing a lot of games, when he did play, his minutes and his shooting percentages have been close to if not the two lowest of his career. Now maybe with a better team around him, guys like Gibson to spell him, he'll be able to pace himself and be more effective over a longer period without getting hurt, but the guy is 34 years old and is in his 15th NBA season. Coach Thibs may want to consider limiting his minutes a la Popovich during the regular season in the hopes of having him relatively healthy and fresh for the playoffs.

Gasol is definitely a risk to miss some games this year. However, my concern isn't whether he misses some games, but whether he is available at season's end. And barring a fluke, I'd expect him to be there for the playoffs. I do hope that, given the depth in the frontcourt with Noah, Gibson, and Mirotic (and Mohammed and Bairstow if absolutely necessary), Gasol will stay healthy enough for the playoffs.

I think Pau is also a huge key for Chicago's offense to develop more versatility and fluidity (thank you, Clyde Frazier, for the loquation inspiration). But, one dude I forgot about was the acquisition of Aaron Brooks - he is a real problem to deal with off the bench (for other teams, I mean). All of a sudden, you've got a second five with Gibson, Brooks and McBuckets not to mention Mirotic. Big time.

The Bulls quietly completely revamped their offense. The obvious addition was Derrick Rose, who replaces the scrappy yet now offensively useless Kirk Hinrich. That change alone revitalizes the team dramatically on offense. But then, as you mention, the Bulls got a dynamic post scorer/playmaker in Gasol. He, Noah, and Gibson each give the Bulls a different type of value on offense, and I think he's a perfect complement to those two elite defenders. And you hit on the quietest yet possibly cleverest addition in Brooks. He's a CLASSIC Thibs backup PG. I am beginning to think that Thibs is the backup PG whisperer. He likes his backup PG to be able to score on their own, so that the offense can run like it does with Rose. That's what he did with John Lucas III, Nate Robinson, DJ Augustin, and now Brooks. So what was once an atrocious offense now has the potential to be really versatile and good.

Gasol, Rose, and Noah are all injury risks. Jimmy Butler (who is currently dealing with a hand injury) has been near the top of the league in recent years in minutes (I believe he led the league in minutes last year), and is also a key player in Chicago's title hopes. The Bulls have Taj Gibson, though, who can step in if either of the starting bigs go down. The Cavs can ill afford an injury to any of their stars or big men. They don't have any big man depth, unless you consider Tristan Thompson, Shawn Marion, and Brendan Haywood above replacement level. I think Thompson and Marion are in the "just another guy" category, and Haywood in the "keep gettin' them checks" territory.

I would say that the biggest injury "risk" is Noah. He's playing with a potentially bad knee. It remains to be seen how healthy he'll be. I don't think Gasol and Rose are any greater season-ending injury risks than any other big man or PG. Rose's two previous injuries (to separate knees) were flukey injuries. He's now healthy and he has presumably rehabbed with the specific goal of NOT having another knee injury, so I'd be surprised if he suffered another major knee injury. It could happen, but It could happen to anybody who plays an explosive style of game (James and Irving are just as risky in my opinion).

I would agree that the Bulls need Rose, Noah, Butler, Gibson, and Gasol healthy come playoff time.

Conversely, I'd say the Cavs need James, Love, Irving, Waiters, and Varejao healthy (unless they add another SG/SF - right now Miller/Marion/Jones seem like they may be replacement level on the perimeter).

[elvis14]

One thing that's interesting about Kyrie is that he's only 22 years old (at least I think that's his age). As good as he is, he still has time to improve in just about every area of the game. I think that playing with James and Love and playing on a winning team will help him grow more quickly than the past several years. When he hits his prime in a few years he's going to be a handful (like he isn't already).

Later this year, there's going to be a team that I will feel bad for...whoever has to play OKC in the first round of the playoffs. With Durant and Westbrook out for a while, the Thunder are going to lose lots of games for the next couple of weeks. Then they will start to get healthy and start to get better. By seasons end, assuming they don't have any other significant injuries, the Thunder will start hitting their stride. Durant and Westbrook will not have the wear and tear of a full NBA season. Because of the injuries they are going to be seeded lower than they should be and some team that had a pretty good season and earned a 2 or 3 seed is going to end up having to face the Thunder in the first round.

[_Gary]

One thing that's interesting about Kyrie is that he's only 22 years old (at least I think that's his age). As good as he is, he still has time to improve in just about every area of the game. I think that playing with James and Love and playing on a winning team will help him grow more quickly than the past several years. When he hits his prime in a few years he's going to be a handful (like he isn't already).

Agreed. Kyrie's NBA career, until now, has been about him being surrounded by less than stellar talent. He'll definitely get better and better as he plays with LeBron and Kevin. I'm not sure if the Cavs, as they are currently constructed, will have quite enough to get past a veteran Bulls team in the playoffs. It still feels to me like they need one more legit big man and another sharp-shooter (Ray Allen, come on down!). I'm not convinced that what they have right now, even if the starters gel quickly, is enough to win a Conference Championship, much less an NBA title.

[kAzE]

Noah/Gasol is going to be the best passing big man tandem in the league. That team doesn't even need a real point guard. They could probably run their entire offense through the post if they wanted. The addition of Rose gives them a ton of options in the halfcourt. They will be tough to stop . . . I think they could be on par with Cleveland on offense, and way better on defense. They are definitely a better team right now, the Cavs are a work in progress.