The Dork Polls 2015

[uh_no]

Some good stuff here:

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...n_ratings_2015

"The system does not give any special consideration to new players entering the program. There is some credit given for high-profile recruits, but the poor performances in 2012-13 of UCLA and Kentucky, among others, in recent years have tended to mute the impact of recruits in the model. Recruiting rankings are useful, but the impact of high-level prospects on their respective teams as freshman can vary wildly."

Makes me even more optimistic

IMO, duke is one of the teams positively affected by "high-profile recruits"...otherwise we're not returning enough to justify our ranking, even with a relatively high baseline. if okafor and perhaps tyus are not "high-profile" not sure who would be. Previously he hinted at having used just a top 100 ranking list...so wouldn't doubt he just used that again.

[Philadukie]

Is there historical data on how his pre-season rankings compare to season end rankings?

[Dukehky]

What stats is Kenpom using? His top 20 is like a blue chip parade with Wichita St thrown in there.

Also, come on! Wichita St! Again? Sorry, but I'm probably the one dude in America who loves the BCS teams more than the mid-majors.

Right there with ya boss. If you wanna play against and beat the big boys move conferences like TCU did.

[jipops]

Right there with ya boss. If you wanna play against and beat the big boys move conferences like TCU did.

Somebody should tell that to Lehigh and Mercer.

[Kedsy]

Somebody should tell that to Lehigh and Mercer.

Sure, because Duke's the only team, ever, in the history of the NCAA tournament to lose to a low-major team.

For what it's worth, Duke was the only ranked team Mercer played last season and Lehigh played just one other ranked team besides Duke. I'm fairly confident that sort of schedule wasn't what Dukehky was talking about.

[sagegrouse]

It's a necessary business decision. His "in-season" analysis is widely admired and cited. Unhappily, it's not useful until about January. But he has paying subscribers plus followers in the press and all, so he has to do something. So, he has a stopgap pre-season analysis and then he uses a hybrid model (the pre-season expectations and actual performance) until he can go "full production," when he has enough data to rely solely on his model (or combination of models).

I think he's doing it to see if he can do a better job than the preseason polls. It is a laudable goal, although, like you, I'm not at all convinced that it's worth very much.

Would you accept, MC, that it is possible that both can simultaneously occur: (a) he decides that he must modify his methodology so he can sell subscriptions from the beginning of the season and (b) he decides to do the best job he can with the early-season projections?

[MChambers]

Would you accept, MC, that it is possible that both can simultaneously occur: (a) he decides that he must modify his methodology so he can sell subscriptions from the beginning of the season and (b) he decides to do the best job he can with the early-season projections?

I can accept that duality.

[bob blue devil]

duke's 69 point victory over presbyterian apparently not as impressive as louisville's 13 point win over minnesota. things that make you go 'hmmmm'.

does anybody know what our pythagorean rating was prior to the game? i wonder how much the game moved it (now is 0.9470).

[vick]

duke's 69 point victory over presbyterian apparently not as impressive as louisville's 13 point win over minnesota. things that make you go 'hmmmm'.

does anybody know what our pythagorean rating was prior to the game? i wonder how much the game moved it (now is 0.9470).

Kenpom reduces the effect of huge victory margins, a change made before last season. So there isn't really any way for Duke to help its rating in a game against a very low-ranked team.

[uh_no]

duke's 69 point victory over presbyterian apparently not as impressive as louisville's 13 point win over minnesota. things that make you go 'hmmmm'.

does anybody know what our pythagorean rating was prior to the game? i wonder how much the game moved it (now is 0.9470).

9466. and it bumped back down to 9469. most of the bump is because of offense, which went from 118.4 to .5

I wouldn't be concerned about 1 part in 10,000 separating us and UL.

[bob blue devil]

take that louisville! our 50 point beat down of fairfield was far more impressive than your night off. 0.9484 and counting.

going back to '02, ken pom's end of year #1 has never been below 0.95. our preseason 0.9466, if translated to end of year, would have us finishing #4, #3, #4, #2, #3, #4, #5, #5, #2, #3, #5, #3, #5 going backwards (last year to '02). naturally, it would be hard for the highest rated team in the country by the end of the year to not have outperformed expectations, but it's a nice reminder that championships aren't handed out at the start of the season.

[Troublemaker]

I wonder if that one day Louisville spent atop the kenpom rankings is going to prevent Duke from going wire to wire #1.

[davekay1971]

I'm eagerly awaiting the banner hanging in Cameraon: National Champions, November 2014, Kenpom Rankings

Oh wait, we don't do that. That's the "school" 8 miles down the road.

[bob blue devil]

I'm eagerly awaiting the banner hanging in Cameraon: National Champions, November 2014, Kenpom Rankings

Oh wait, we don't do that. That's the "school" 8 miles down the road.

why do the heels need to be #1 in kenpom to hang a banner? i would have guessed they've identified a nice spot to hang a november 2014 kenpom top 25 banner by now. but that does raise the question over whether ken would require them to vacate it if their players are found to have been ineligible...

[barjwr]

If they had any academic rigor over there at all, they'd have already calculated HelmsPom ratings from the 1920s and 1930s for even more banners.

[kAzE]

After their complete and total annihilation of Kansas, UK is now ranked the #2 offense (behind us), and #1 defense, bumping them to the #1 overall ranking.

[Kedsy]

After their complete and total annihilation of Kansas, UK is now ranked the #2 offense (behind us), and #1 defense, bumping them to the #1 overall ranking.

Are we really doing this in mid-November? KenPom doesn't really mean too much until January or so.

[kAzE]

Are we really doing this in mid-November? KenPom doesn't really mean too much until January or so.

It's just as relevant as the preseason KenPom rankings that started this thread. At least we have SOME data now.

[hurleyfor3]

Are we really doing this in mid-November? KenPom doesn't really mean too much until January or so.

I gave up on this battle. You can continue it if you want.

[uh_no]

Are we really doing this in mid-November? KenPom doesn't really mean too much until January or so.

I'm caching kenpom on a daily basis this year with the goal of analyzing what the standard deviation from the end of the year a ranking for a team is on a given date during the season