Countdown to Craziness Reports

[Troublemaker]

My ony disappointments for C2C were lacklucker dunk contest and no set play alley oops with athletes like Semi, Grayson, Sheed and Justise to benefit from back screen from either center.

Well the other issue is that when you play an intra-squad scrimmage, your opponent already knows all of your set plays. Makes it kind of hard to call them out. 8-)

Plus, we did run a Tyus to Justice backdoor lob on the first play of the scrimmage, I think. Justise missed the layup on the play.

[ACCBBallFan]

I knew that but erred as I typed. Thanks Kedsy and Jim for correcting my oversight.

[ACCBBallFan]

Well the other issue is that when you play an intra-squad scrimmage, your opponent already knows all of your set plays. Makes it kind of hard to call them out. 8-)

I had forgotten there was an ill fated alley oop attempt on the first play from Tyus to Justise that rimemd out rather than resulted in a slam.

[COYS]

I rewatched the scrimmage again because . . . well . . . I just love the sight of our guys running up and down Cameron again.

Upon second viewing, I actually think it's worth mentioning just how well Matt played in the first half. He played fantastic defense. His size at the 2 spot plus the strength and wingspan of Amile, Jahlil, and Justise is formidable. Offensively (assuming he really can hit his threes consistently), he had some really, really sweet plays. As has been mentioned, his first basket came off of a floater in the lane, but it wasn't the floater that was impressive to me. What was impressive was how that play developed. He got the ball on the right wing and brought it back towards the middle of the court. Jahlil set up a lackadaisical screen for Matt's man before rolling toward the hoop. Matt drove into the lane while staying in control and looking to dump the ball off to Jahlil. The defense sagged off Matt to cover Jahlil and Matt immediately switched and looked for his own shot. At this point in the game, Jahlil was off to a hot start and the Blue Team was clearly trying to deny him the ball. Matt took advantage of the attention Jahlil was getting and got himself an easy bucket on a (sorta) pick n' roll.

In addition, most of his other baskets came off of superb movement without the ball. He played almost like the perimeter version of Amile, getting himself into the right place at the right time, ready to make the defense pay if they give him an opening. I definitely see why K mentions Matt as someone who can be effective without the ball in his hands. If (big IF) he can hit that perimeter shot, he could be a devastating role player on both sides of the ball.

I was also interested to see just how Justise was used on offense. He's so strong and powerful on drives to the hoop his game actually reminds me a bit of Gerald Henderson's game (there are obvious differences, of course, but the strength and power they possess combined with the decent jump shot but lack of consistent three point range is similar). In fact, in a couple instances, it seemed like his team set up what I think of as "The Gerald" inbounds play on the sideline when the ball is either inbounded to Justise or inbounded and then quickly passed to Justise (or Gerald, back when he was at Duke) and the rest of the team clears out an entire side of the floor, allowing Justise to use his strength to get to the hoop. Interestingly, despite Justise being a lefty, this play was set up to clear out the right side of the court, as it would have been for the right-dominant Gerald. Now, to be honest, it could have appeared that the team was setting up this play a few times purely by coincidence, and the play never resulted in a bucket (though I think he was fouled once). However, I would interested to see Justise given an opportunity to use his strength and power on similar plays in the future . . . I just hope those plays are set up for him to go to his left, instead of his right. In fact, with Jahlil lurking on the weakside and keeping potential help defenders at home and/or sealed off, I would imagine that a well executed clear out for Justise could result in some Gerald-esque spectacular dunks.

[Troublemaker]

First Qualifier- It was just a Blue White game and we have been fooled before
Second qualifier- I reserve the right to change my assessment of tonight after these kids play about 5 to 10 games counting the exhibitions. I distinctly recall texting Kedsy in a panic last year during the first half of our first exhibition game against the DII School who at the time was carving up our defense like swiss cheese. I knew in my heart that day that our defense sucked and we were in big trouble on that end of the floor. We were actually behind at the half that day which is unheard of in the exhibition games against the DII opponents.

Tonight, I left Cameron Indoor absolutely giddy over what I had just witnessed, and I over heard a couple of parents of current players and two dads of recruits that were there who were discussing after the game, down on the floor, how wowed they were at this team. If you put a gun to my head right now I would be forced to say this team is better right now than last year's team was. Again, its just the Blue/White, and I reserve the right to change my tune after seeing those 5 to 10 games. But wow.

This strikes me as too restrained. I don't think we'll need 5-10 games to assess that this is a top 5 team and better than last year's team. I'm actually quite comfortable saying those things right now. We have a complete team. Size, athleticism, and skill. Great bigs, very good wings, very good point guards.

It is true that some fans got too excited about last year's team early. I am afraid I called last year's team "loaded" after the Davidson game. No, THIS year's team is loaded. I could be wrong again, sure. Pull my basketball fan card if I am :-).

There is understandable nervousness about how good the defense will be after last season. But I think the much better size inside (Jah, healthy MP3, Amile at PF), expected major minutes for excellent wing defenders Justise and Matt, a consistent Rasheed who should be very good on-the-ball, Coach K's adjustment to the ball-screen defense, improved conditioning regimen, familiarity with the defensive rules emphases, and the early identification of an on-court leader/communicator in Amile will almost certainly result in a good defense.

[Troublemaker]

If Amile is as good as Lance was at making switches and effectively guarding the man he switched to, then he might be our most important player not named Okafor.

Even if Amile isn't as effective as Lance in that regard, I don't think we'll see too many switches this year. We played the entire 24 minutes of CTC without any switching or hedging on ball screens. Lots of icing and sometimes going under the ball screen instead.

Hedging and switching will still be in the toolbag but I suspect they will probably be utilized against
(1) guards that can hit a pull-up three (pretty rare in college)
(2) stretch big men who can pick and pop for threes (also pretty rare)

[flyingdutchdevil]

This strikes me as too restrained. I don't think we'll need 5-10 games to assess that this is a top 5 team and better than last year's team. I'm actually quite comfortable saying those things right now. We have a complete team. Size, athleticism, and skill. Great bigs, very good wings, very good point guards.

It is true that some fans got too excited about last year's team early. I am afraid I called last year's team "loaded" after the Davidson game. No, THIS year's team is loaded. I could be wrong again, sure. Pull my basketball fan card if I am :-).

There is understandable nervousness about how good the defense will be after last season. But I think the much better size inside (Jah, healthy MP3, Amile at PF), expected major minutes for excellent wing defenders Justise and Matt, a consistent Rasheed who should be very good on-the-ball, Coach K's adjustment to the ball-screen defense, improved conditioning regimen, familiarity with the defensive rules emphases, and the early identification of an on-court leader/communicator in Amile will almost certainly result in a good defense.

Last year's team was loaded... with offensive firepower. We were a top 3 offensive team all of last year, and a lot of the time we were the top offensive team. Defensively, we were a nightmare. However, DBR never, ever gave up on the defense of last year's team (until the end of the ACC reg season. By then, we knew we were hopeless). This time last year, we were ecstatic about offense AND defense. 5 games in (especially with the Vermont game), Duke showed that they couldn't guard their own shadow. Most posters - including the heavy hitters who have credibility - said that Duke would get there on D. If never happened.

This year, my gut tells me offense will be good, if not really good (maybe not as good as last year, but it has top 10 potential). Our defense will improve for three simple reasons: 1) our core players are a year older, 2) we get in a Big Dog and a Swiss Army knife, c) addition by subtraction on the defensive end (sorry Jabari and Hood). However, how much we improve is the real question. Can we play as a unit? Can we contain penetration? Can bigs score on Amile/Okafor/MP3? These are all questions I have no idea about and I'm excited to explore in those first 5 to 10 games.

[MCFinARL]

This strikes me as too restrained. I don't think we'll need 5-10 games to assess that this is a top 5 team and better than last year's team. I'm actually quite comfortable saying those things right now. We have a complete team. Size, athleticism, and skill. Great bigs, very good wings, very good point guards.

It is true that some fans got too excited about last year's team early. I am afraid I called last year's team "loaded" after the Davidson game. No, THIS year's team is loaded. I could be wrong again, sure. Pull my basketball fan card if I am :-).

There is understandable nervousness about how good the defense will be after last season. But I think the much better size inside (Jah, healthy MP3, Amile at PF), expected major minutes for excellent wing defenders Justise and Matt, a consistent Rasheed who should be very good on-the-ball, Coach K's adjustment to the ball-screen defense, improved conditioning regimen, familiarity with the defensive rules emphases, and the early identification of an on-court leader/communicator in Amile will almost certainly result in a good defense.

No, if you are wrong we will give you an EXTRA basketball fan card. We will just pull your expert card.

Here's hoping you are right, though.

[COYS]

Last year's team was loaded... with offensive firepower. We were a top 3 offensive team all of last year, and a lot of the time we were the top offensive team. Defensively, we were a nightmare. However, DBR never, ever gave up on the defense of last year's team (until the end of the ACC reg season. By then, we knew we were hopeless). This time last year, we were ecstatic about offense AND defense. 5 games in (especially with the Vermont game), Duke showed that they couldn't guard their own shadow. Most posters - including the heavy hitters who have credibility - said that Duke would get there on D. If never happened.

This year, my gut tells me offense will be good, if not really good (maybe not as good as last year, but it has top 10 potential). Our defense will improve for three simple reasons: 1) our core players are a year older, 2) we get in a Big Dog and a Swiss Army knife, c) addition by subtraction on the defensive end (sorry Jabari and Hood). However, how much we improve is the real question. Can we play as a unit? Can we contain penetration? Can bigs score on Amile/Okafor/MP3? These are all questions I have no idea about and I'm excited to explore in those first 5 to 10 games.

There have been three seasons in the recent past when either the offense or the defense was poor by Duke standards. The 2007 team had only the 51st best offense (all numbers via kenpom) but the following year Duke moved up to 19. The 2012 team had an abysmal 81 ranking on defense (made worse by losing Ryan for the home stretch), but Duke jumped up to 31 the following season, and was even flirting with the top 10 before Ryan's injury. Then, of course, last year happened when Duke had a truly horrid defensive year. I share your gut feeling that the defense will be better this year because a coach K team is a) usually really good at defense and b) the year following a meltdown on either offense or defense, the team has come back the next season significantly improved in that area. Perhaps the only reason that historical trend wouldn't hold true is that the veterans on this squad have never been part of a vintage Duke defensive squad (although we were close to that two years ago when Ryan was healthy).

In addition to your observations, I'd also like to add that most of the guys will also be asked to guard positions they are used to guarding. Jabari wasn't used to guarding centers. It showed. Hood wasn't used to guarding power forwards or even big wings. It showed. In addition, because of the make-up of the team last year, those two had to carry our offense AND be strong on the defensive end while playing out of position. This year, Jabari, Marshall and Amile will be right at home guarding bigger guys while we have a myriad of options on the wings and at the guard spots. Not everyone can be a Kyle Singler and come in and guard centers despite being a freshman SF/PF. Luckily this year, we don't need anyone to do that. We just need people to guard the positions they are used to and best suited to guard.

[Kedsy]

The 2012 team had an abysmal 81 ranking on defense (made worse by losing Ryan for the home stretch), but Duke jumped up to 31 the following season, and was even flirting with the top 10 before Ryan's injury.

We were doing better than flirting. Pomeroy ranked Duke's D as #4 in the country just after Ryan's injury.

I'm not sure if I've said this on the board yet or not (apologies if so), but it's amazing to me that we could lose three NBA players (including the #2 draft pick in the NBA draft plus another mid-first-rounder) and replace them with freshmen and say we clearly have a better team. That's pretty crazy.

[Troublemaker]

No, if you are wrong we will give you an EXTRA basketball fan card. We will just pull your expert card.

Here's hoping you are right, though.

Expert? Ha! Don't make me laugh!

No expertise here, but I just don't feel like being gun-shy even if I fired wrong last season. I see a complete team that will be one of the national favorites all season long, and I don't want to sandbag that diagnosis just because we're coming off a disappointing season.

[uh_no]

We were doing better than flirting. Pomeroy ranked Duke's D as #4 in the country just after Ryan's injury.

I'm not sure if I've said this on the board yet or not (apologies if so), but it's amazing to me that we could lose three NBA players (including the #2 draft pick in the NBA draft plus another mid-first-rounder) and replace them with freshmen and say we clearly have a better team. That's pretty crazy.

well, i think it demonstrates that positionlessness only goes so far. I do not know if we are better, person for person, but I think we have a combination of folks that are more complimentary, and thus stronger as a team. A football team couldn't field 11 HoF quarterbacks...and we had trouble with a platoon of PF-ish guys who were asked to play center.

[Mike Corey]

I have nothing to contribute aside from saying thank you, thank you to those of you offering commentary and insight into the team from this past weekend. You're the greatest.

[flyingdutchdevil]

We were doing better than flirting. Pomeroy ranked Duke's D as #4 in the country just after Ryan's injury.

I'm not sure if I've said this on the board yet or not (apologies if so), but it's amazing to me that we could lose three NBA players (including the #2 draft pick in the NBA draft plus another mid-first-rounder) and replace them with freshmen and say we clearly have a better team. That's pretty crazy.

Are you saying that we have a better team despite losing so much NBA talent, or are you saying that DBR is saying it and that isn't correct?

I'm not sure if we're better than last year (probably not on offense, probably on defense), but we absolutely have more balance. We have 2 excellent 1s (TJ, Cook), 2 great-to-good 5s (Okafor, MP3), and 3-5 players who round out the versatile 2-4s. It's quite a nice set up.

[Duvall]

We were doing better than flirting. Pomeroy ranked Duke's D as #4 in the country just after Ryan's injury.

I'm not sure if I've said this on the board yet or not (apologies if so), but it's amazing to me that we could lose three NBA players (including the #2 draft pick in the NBA draft plus another mid-first-rounder) and replace them with freshmen and say we clearly have a better team. That's pretty crazy.

Well, it was just two years ago that Duke lost a lottery pick and a late first-rounder and got substantially better by adding two freshmen to the rotation. Why not three?

[Gthoma2a]

Are you saying that we have a better team despite losing so much NBA talent, or are you saying that DBR is saying it and that isn't correct?

I'm not sure if we're better than last year (probably not on offense, probably on defense), but we absolutely have more balance. We have 2 excellent 1s (TJ, Cook), 2 great-to-good 5s (Okafor, MP3), and 3-5 players who round out the versatile 2-4s. It's quite a nice set up.

We lost to Mercer last year with a team that let them score with relative ease throughout the game. I think that it is safe to say that, despite being extremely talented players, Rodney and Jabari weren't what we needed to win on their own. The team was very unbalanced with them in the driver's seat. If we had Okafor down low, and Winslow to add defense during the lapses, they would be amazing assets. As it was, they were just really talented players on a very unbalanced team. We brought in a pass-first point guard, a force of a SF and a big man that anchors us in the post and allows Amile to play his natural position. Sheed needs the ball, and he has a much better chance of seeing it, without two other guys who are mostly just insane scorers getting all of the touches on the perimeter. It made him useless, whereas he can shine this year. Also, we have seen improvement in Matt's offense that means we can really use him on both ends of the court, instead of purely as defense. I also like Jahlil's ability to rebound/affect shots more than I do Jabari's. Add to it that he seems to score with ease, opening up the entire floor to our shooters as the defense collapses, and we're much improved.

My ideal situation would have been to still have Jabari to play the 4, but I don't see how you can argue that we aren't better than last year, as a team.

[luvdahops]

Are you saying that we have a better team despite losing so much NBA talent, or are you saying that DBR is saying it and that isn't correct?

I'm not sure if we're better than last year (probably not on offense, probably on defense), but we absolutely have more balance. We have 2 excellent 1s (TJ, Cook), 2 great-to-good 5s (Okafor, MP3), and 3-5 players who round out the versatile 2-4s. It's quite a nice set up.

I think we may very well be better on offense, too. I know our offensive efficiency ratings last year were way up there, but a simple eye test told a somewhat different story, as there were multiple games in which we endured long scoring droughts and general offensive disarray. I am hopeful that the presence of Big Jah and Tyus will address these issues directly. I expect Okafor to be a highly efficient player offensively - shooting a high percentage from the floor, and getting to and converting from the foul line frequently - in addition to putting up big numbers. There seems to be a major (and appropriate) focus on making sure he gets the ball. And there is a reason that Tyus was tabbed the starting PG before practice officially began. He orchestrates the offense in a way that no one else on the roster can (and I am a Quinn fan).

[Kedsy]

Well, it was just two years ago that Duke lost a lottery pick and a late first-rounder and got substantially better by adding two freshmen to the rotation. Why not three?

Are you saying that we have a better team despite losing so much NBA talent, or are you saying that DBR is saying it and that isn't correct?

I didn't get to see CTC, but from what people I respect have said and the way Coach K is talking, along with my own suspicions, I think our team will be better than last year, possibly significantly better.

I just think it's crazy that such a thing is even possible (assuming you don't do things the way Kentucky does them). It's a testament to Coach K's skill and the power of growth, as well as a wonderful recruiting class.

To answer Duvall's question, three is more than two (and quantity does matter in this regard) and also losing a top two or three draft pick (among your overall losses) is a different animal than the best guy you lost being a #10 pick (as it was after 2012).

After 1999 we lost four lottery picks, including the #1 NBA draft pick. The next season, according to RSCI we'd scored the top recruiting class in the country (by a lot) but did we have any chance in the world of being a better team in 2000? I don't think so. After 2002 we lost two of the top three NBA draft picks plus an early second rounder, again pulled in the top recruiting class in the land, and again we had no chance to be better. After 2011 we lost the top pick in the draft, a late first-rounder, and an early second rounder and despite the second ranked recruiting class in the country, we once again had no chance to field a better team. After 2013, we lost a late-first rounder, a second rounder, and an undrafted player who made an NBA roster, we nabbed the fourth best recruiting class in the country and thought we could have a better team, but even then we didn't.

Even getting better after losing two NBA players is not an easy matter. In addition to 2013, the only arguable one was 2010, after losing Gerald Henderson to the draft and future NBA player Elliott Williams to transfer. The only other seasons during the Coach K era after we lost two players who made NBA teams the following year were 1987 (much worse team than the previous season); 1993 (much worse than the previous season); 2005 (much worse than the previous season); and 2007 (much worse than the previous season).

So, assuming the early returns are correct and this year's team is significantly better than last year's team, it's a pretty amazing thing.

[Kedsy]

We lost to Mercer last year with a team that let them score with relative ease throughout the game.

In 2010, we got blown out by an NC State team that finished 5-11 in the ACC, and let them score with relative ease throughout the game. And yet we won the national championship. You simply can't judge how good a team is based on one game.

Last year's team had defensive problems, no doubt, but saying "Mercer" as if that's all the argument you need is poor reasoning.

I don't see how you can argue that we aren't better than last year, as a team.

Well, I happen to agree that this season we'll be a better team than last season, but since we haven't played a single game yet, to say "I don't see how you can argue" otherwise seems a bit over the top and unfounded.

[Duvall]

My ideal situation would have been to still have Jabari to play the 4, but I don't see how you can argue that we aren't better than last year, as a team.

I mean, you can *argue* it. It's entirely possible that this year's team becomes only slightly better defensively while giving up a lot of shooting ability, and ends up being a worse team.