Countdown to Craziness Reports

[OldPhiKap]

There was no pouting in the shove last night. It was Alpha-Dog flicking little-dog out of his space. Like you opine, that's a good thing. Sending a message. If the big fella has no problem sending a message like that to a teammate, the enemy should be ware.

This is one of those mountain out of a molehill deals to be honest. It wasn't that big of a deal. Big guy has rebound fully secure, little guy refuses to let the play be over, big guy pushes little guy off of him. End of story.

I remember Jay Bilas telling a story about when he was a freshman, and in practice someone kept getting by him. K blew the whistle and got in his face, saying that better not happen again. Next play, the guy got by Bilas so he just flat out tackled the guy and hauled him down. K ran over, bumped up to him and yelled "now, THAT'S what I'm talking about!!!"

If Big Dog is woofing, K will be pleased.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

There was no pouting in the shove last night. It was Alpha-Dog flicking little-dog out of his space. Like you opine, that's a good thing. Sending a message. If the big fella has no problem sending a message like that to a teammate, the enemy should be ware.

This is one of those mountain out of a molehill deals to be honest. It wasn't that big of a deal. Big guy has rebound fully secure, little guy refuses to let the play be over, big guy pushes little guy off of him. End of story.

Never meant to make it a huge deal in the first place. Was just an observation I've made. Being a Duke fan has deprived me of that kind of attitude from a big fella caught me off guard

[Furniture]

Never meant to make it a huge deal in the first place. Was just an observation I've made. Being a Duke fan has deprived me of that kind of attitude from a big fella caught me off guard

I saw it too. To be honest I thought it was a bit over the top. But if I refect personally I have been playing pickup soccer for the last several years or so with some really good friends. From time to time some of us get upset and go a little over the top even storming off the field and promising to never to play again. Next game we are back again shaking hands and hugging before the game as if it had never happened...

[UrinalCake]

I've been defending Quinn like crazy all summer, feeling like he's still the starting point guard until I see otherwise, and pulling for him to regain his form and split minutes at point with Jones. But after attending C2C, I've completely jumped ship into the camp that believes Jones will start from day 1. Quinn is still an excellent shooter, and he can bring the ball down the court against the press. But he doesn't create anything for his teammates. As far as pure point guard skills in the half court, Rasheed and even Matt Jones are not really that far behind him, and they also provide so much more. On the other side of the ball, he didn't even defend the other team's point guard. That fell to Rasheed in the first "half" and Matt Jones in the second half. So I've pretty much resigned myself to Quinn being an off-guard, one in the mix of several.

Matt Jones looked great to me. Winslow has a really nice stroke. Amile was talking constantly, as I've heard is true of him. And as others have said, Okafor was pretty much unstoppable. Only one or two of his baskets came on dunks, the rest were on short jumpers, layups that he created for himself, and at least one offensive putback that appeared effortless. He even had a bank shot that was Duncan-esque. Can't wait to watch him this year.

As for the pregame stuff, I mean it just went on for way too long. A few performances and games involving the fans would be fine, but not a whole hour. I love female acapella groups as much as the next heterosexual male, but we don't need three Brittney Spears covers. Just one would be fine. I saw the recruits come in just as the steppers were starting, and by the time the Diwali dancers came on (which I really enjoyed) I honestly felt like I wouldn't blame these kids if they decided to go elsewhere. With that said, I don't think C2C will be the determining factor in their choice.

[ACCBBallFan]

I've been defending Quinn like crazy all summer, feeling like he's still the starting point guard until I see otherwise, and pulling for him to regain his form and split minutes at point with Jones. But after attending C2C, I've completely jumped ship into the camp that believes Jones will start from day 1. Quinn is still an excellent shooter, and he can bring the ball down the court against the press. But he doesn't create anything for his teammates. As far as pure point guard skills in the half court, Rasheed and even Matt Jones are not really that far behind him, and they also provide so much more. On the other side of the ball, he didn't even defend the other team's point guard. That fell to Rasheed in the first "half" and Matt Jones in the second half. So I've pretty much resigned myself to Quinn being an off-guard, one in the mix of several.

Matt Jones looked great to me. Winslow has a really nice stroke. Amile was talking constantly, as I've heard is true of him. And as others have said, Okafor was pretty much unstoppable. Only one or two of his baskets came on dunks, the rest were on short jumpers, layups that he created for himself, and at least one offensive putback that appeared effortless. He even had a bank shot that was Duncan-esque. Can't wait to watch him this year.

I think the prior posts had made all the right points except this one that Sheed was guarding Tyus in game one.

Coach K made the point in a prior interview that Matt can be effective without neeeding the ball, whereas Tyus, Oak and Sheed all need the ball a lot to be effective.

Based on C2C, it's clear that Oak-Amile-Justise log most of the minutes at the forward positions with a lot of separation, but that competition is fierce at the two combo slots with very little separation, not even counting Grayson Allen who will be a good 4-year player.

I can see alternating two formations:

Oak-Amile-Justise - Matt and Tyus

Oak - Amile - Justise - Sheed - Quinn

The reason for teaming this way are:

Tyus - Sheed - Oak all need the ball and there is only 1.

Tyus - Quinn is awfully short set of combos and the two worst defenders of the 4.

Ergo Tyus with Matt one one platton and Sheed- Quinn on the other.

The only rest other than due to foul trouble the three bigs would get is if coach K went to 5 man subbing that was sometimes effective last year, once or twice a half with MP3-Semi-Grayson.

For that second 5, MP3 bangs on oppsong center to soften him up for Okafor's return. Surround MP3 with 4 shooters Semi - Grayson - Quinn and Matt.

When they are subbed out, rested best 5 return Okafor-Jefferson-Winslow-Sulaimon- T Jones, but get back onto two primary formations at various every 4 minute TV timeouts to avoid lineup with too many guys wanting the ball.

Either Okafor - T Jones w/o Sheed or Oak-Sheed w/o T Jones is fine since Justise, Matt and Amile do not need the ball in their hands to perform their roles.

Okafor, Amile and Justine 30 MPG ea, total 90

T Jones/M Jones and Sheed/Quinn 20 min ea, total 170

MP3, Semi, Grayson Allen 10 MPG ea, total 200.

Too much emphasis is placed on who starts, so just as often start Sheed/Quinn due to their experience and let Tyus/Matt get acclimated on bench at start, perhaps in tough road games early in season, based on opponent rather than alternating every other game.

Same point coach K made a few years back with Scheyer that team has 6 starters, this one has 7. Other than UK, not many teams with the depth to have Sheed and Quinn coming in off the bench (or Tyus/Matt).

[Kedsy]

Okafor, Amile and Justine 30 MPG ea, total 90

T Jones/M Jones and Sheed/Quinn 20 min ea, total 170

MP3, Semi, Grayson Allen 10 MPG ea, total 200.

At the risk of raising the collective DBR ire by discussing minute distribution:

(a) It's been said before, but freshman big men at Duke rarely top 25 mpg. I'll be surprised if Jahlil gets up to 30 mpg.

(b) Tyus and Rasheed (and probably Quinn, too) are more likely to log 27 to 32 mpg, rather than 20.

(c) If our 10th man (or even our 9th man) gets anywhere close to 10 mpg, especially once ACC season rolls around, I will be shocked speechless.

[subzero02]

I think Jahlil falling short of the 30 mpg plateau will be a function of K playing our bench extensively in blowouts.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

At the risk of raising the collective DBR ire by discussing minute distribution:

(a) It's been said before, but freshman big men at Duke rarely top 25 mpg. I'll be surprised if Jahlil gets up to 30 mpg.

(b) Tyus and Rasheed (and probably Quinn, too) are more likely to log 27 to 32 mpg, rather than 20.

(c) If our 10th man (or even our 9th man) gets anywhere close to 10 mpg, especially once ACC season rolls around, I will be shocked speechless.

It is likely a fair argument that Duke has never had a freshman big man as good as Okafor before, which lends to the possibility of what was not being anywhere comparable to what will be this season.

All three Plumlees < Okafor.

S. Williams < Okafor.

Boozer < Okafor.

Maybe Brand, but I think not, especially when a large sample size of Brand's inaugural season was lost to injury, and more importantly, the 97-98 team had a remarkably even distribution of minutes, coupled with a wide margin of victory when not facing UNC or Clemson.

(purely my opinion, but I would take Okafor over Brand without a second thought).

Parks/Meeks < Okafor.

Laettner vs. Okafor is an endless discussion, but it is likely fair to argue that Laettner played a different position than Okafor, or at the very least, a position that no longer exists in college basketball.

Abdelnaby < Okafor.

I cannot foresee Okafor playing 35+ plus minutes as an average, but quite close to that number in big games, and there is no way any player as good as Okafor finds himself on the bench (non foul trouble or blow out) for ten to fifteen minutes per game.

Margin of victory may cause Okafor's numbers to be close to 25-30 mpg for a seasonal average, but when it matters, that kiddo is going to be on floor A LOT.

[ACCBBallFan]

At the risk of raising the collective DBR ire by discussing minute distribution:

(a) It's been said before, but freshman big men at Duke rarely top 25 mpg. I'll be surprised if Jahlil gets up to 30 mpg.

(b) Tyus and Rasheed (and probably Quinn, too) are more likely to log 27 to 32 mpg, rather than 20.

(c) If our 10th man (or even our 9th man) gets anywhere close to 10 mpg, especially once ACC season rolls around, I will be shocked speechless.

You are right on all points Kedsy, as I was speaking mostly to PT up until end of season when coach K inevitably reverts to 7 man rotation by first Carolina game, ACCT and NCAAT and only plays MP3 as necessary and Semi/Grayson not much at all.

For most of season if Oak cannot go 30 MPG, MP3 logs more by default.

If Amile or Justise are unavailable, Sheed plays some SF and Tyus logs more mintues in combo with Matt or Quinn but Tyus' primary partner is Matt for reasons stated:

1. Sheed - Tyus - Oak all need the ball and only 1 ball, and
2. two 6' 1" at best combos is too small to do too often.

My ony disappointments for C2C were lacklucker dunk contest and no set play alley oops with athletes like Semi, Grayson, Sheed and Justise to benefit from back screen from either center. In fairness Winslow had cramps and Semi might not have been expecting to partake.

[TruBlu]

In past years, incoming transfers have played in this game, right? Has anybody heard why Sean Obi didn't play at all?

Not sure why he didn't play. I cannot remember if transfers have played in the scrimmage.

He did get off the bench to go in the game once, when another player (Justise, maybe?) had a cramp in his calf. The player recovered sufficiently before play resumed, and Obi returned to the bench. So we can probably rule out an injury to Obi as the reason for him not playing.

[UrinalCake]

My ony disappointments for C2C were lacklucker dunk contest and no set play alley oops with athletes like Semi, Grayson, Sheed and Justise to benefit from back screen from either center.

Well the other issue is that when you play an intra-squad scrimmage, your opponent already knows all of your set plays. Makes it kind of hard to call them out. 8-)

[Durham Blue Devil]

At the risk of raising the collective DBR ire by discussing minute distribution:

(a) It's been said before, but freshman big men at Duke rarely top 25 mpg. I'll be surprised if Jahlil gets up to 30 mpg.

(b) Tyus and Rasheed (and probably Quinn, too) are more likely to log 27 to 32 mpg, rather than 20.

(c) If our 10th man (or even our 9th man) gets anywhere close to 10 mpg, especially once ACC season rolls around, I will be shocked speechless.

Kedsy, I mostly observe rather than post, and rarely disagree with your analysis, but after watching Okafor at CTC coupled with Coach K's comments about him, I would be absolutely shocked if he played in the 25-30 minutes range this year on average. As Coach K said, there is really no one like him in college basketball and that is too great of an asset to keep on the bench solely because he is a freshman big man.

On an unrelated note, I was wondering if others at CTC who have also been there previous years noticed the student section only about 3/4 filled and a decent amount of the students left at halftime. Being a scrimmage, this obviously is not a big deal but having been at all of the previous CTC's events, this was by far the worst student showing. Given that there are no big time home games on the pre-conference schedule, I'm hopeful that the poor turnout this past weekend was due to parents weekend and that we aren't going to have a low energy 3/4 filled student section this year. I know this is nit-picking but nonetheless, given the standout recruiting class and its related hype, I expected the student section to be filled as it usually is for CTC.

[ACCBBallFan]

Not sure why he didn't play. I cannot remember if transfers have played in the scrimmage.

He did get off the bench to go in the game once, when another player (Justise, maybe?) had a cramp in his calf. The player recovered sufficiently before play resumed, and Obi returned to the bench. So we can probably rule out an injury to Obi as the reason for him not playing.

The other odd thing was that Sean Obi was on Okafor's team rather than on MP3's team to give Oak another big to challenge him who has prior NCAA experience at SMU, apparently a decent defender.

[CDu]

At the risk of raising the collective DBR ire by discussing minute distribution:

(a) It's been said before, but freshman big men at Duke rarely top 25 mpg. I'll be surprised if Jahlil gets up to 30 mpg.

(b) Tyus and Rasheed (and probably Quinn, too) are more likely to log 27 to 32 mpg, rather than 20.

(c) If our 10th man (or even our 9th man) gets anywhere close to 10 mpg, especially once ACC season rolls around, I will be shocked speechless.

Agree completely on points (b) and (c). However, I think it's questionable to make limits about Okafor's playing time. Given how good he has looked (he is more advanced than Brand was as a freshman and certainly physically mature). And given the substantial dropoff in talent from him to the next option at center (sorry, Plumlee!), I would say that he'll play as many minutes as he can handle.

We only have to look back one year to see a freshman big man average 30 mpg (Parker averaged 30.7 mpg last year). I'm not saying Okafor will definitely do so as well, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he did. Based on everything that has been said about him this Fall and based on how amazing he looked in the Blue/White game, I suspect he'll play as many minutes as he can handle. Maybe that results in <25mpg, but it could well be that he can handle 28-30 just fine. I'm hoping for the latter, because he appears to be THAT good.

As for Obi not playing, I'm wondering if Coach K was simply going with the idea of "let's get our 10 active players as much time together as possible." Given that four of the 10 guys are freshman and two others played VERY sparingly last year, it may be that the coaches feel that burning game minutes on a guy who won't play this year is a waste of a valuable limited resource.

[uh_no]

2. two 6' 1" at best combos is too small to do too often.

Shabazz Napier 6'1
Ryan Boatright 6'0

per uconn's website

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree completely on points (b) and (c). However, I think it's questionable to make limits about Okafor's playing time. Given how good he has looked (he is more advanced than Brand was as a freshman and certainly physically mature). And given the substantial dropoff in talent from him to the next option at center (sorry, Plumlee!), I would say that he'll play as many minutes as he can handle.

We only have to look back one year to see a freshman big man average 30 mpg (Parker averaged 30.7 mpg last year). I'm not saying Okafor will definitely do so as well, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he did. Based on everything that has been said about him this Fall and based on how amazing he looked in the Blue/White game, I suspect he'll play as many minutes as he can handle. Maybe that results in <25mpg, but it could well be that he can handle 28-30 just fine. I'm hoping for the latter, because he appears to be THAT good.

As for Obi not playing, I'm wondering if Coach K was simply going with the idea of "let's get our 10 active players as much time together as possible." Given that four of the 10 guys are freshman and two others played VERY sparingly last year, it may be that the coaches feel that burning game minutes on a guy who won't play this year is a waste of a valuable limited resource.

I think you're right, but the one criteria that I see holding Okafor back is foul trouble. Tough for a freshman big man to not get in foul trouble. Tough for a big man to not get in foul trouble who actually plays defense (sorry Jabari!). Okafor will get all the minutes he can handle, but the opposing team will go hard at Okafor to get him into foul trouble.

[CDu]

Shabazz Napier 6'1
Ryan Boatright 6'0

per uconn's website

Yeah, guard height should not be a concern with regard to who is on the floor. However, we'd want at least one (if not both) of those small guards to be good defensively. Debatable how good either T. Jones or Cook are defensively.

I suspect we'll see a fair amount of those two guys on the floor together, although if M. Jones' shooting touch is as good as it has looked in brief glimpses so far this year, I won't be distraught if he or Sulaimon starts over Cook. But either way, T. Jones and Cook will play a lot, and as such will play together a fair amount. Maybe it's only 10 mpg together (with both getting around 30 mpg), but they'll see plenty of time on the floor together this year.

If I had to take an early guess at minutes (based on a whopping 24 minutes of exhibition play without substitutions), I'd guess something like:

Okafor ~26-28
Jefferson ~28
Winslow ~24
Sulaimon ~28
T. Jones ~30
Cook ~26
M. Jones ~16
Plumlee ~10-12
Ojeleye ~4-6
Allen ~4-6

[Kedsy]

The other odd thing was that Sean Obi was on Okafor's team rather than on MP3's team to give Oak another big to challenge him who has prior NCAA experience at SMU, apparently a decent defender.

Obi went to Rice. Your point still holds, though.

Agree completely on points (b) and (c). However, I think it's questionable to make limits about Okafor's playing time. Given how good he has looked (he is more advanced than Brand was as a freshman and certainly physically mature). And given the substantial dropoff in talent from him to the next option at center (sorry, Plumlee!), I would say that he'll play as many minutes as he can handle.

You may be right. I think the limiting factors will be: (a) potential foul trouble (with other teams doing whatever they can to draw fouls from our star freshman big man); and (b) fatigue from other really big, strong men constantly banging and bumping him (something he rarely experienced in high school and may or may not be experiencing to the same extent in practices -- I'm sure Marshall is physical with Jahlil, but there are limits to how you beat up teammates that opposing centers will probably not observe).

Yeah, guard height should not be a concern with regard to who is on the floor. However, we'd want at least one (if not both) of those small guards to be good defensively. Debatable how good either T. Jones or Cook are defensively.

I suspect we'll see a fair amount of those two guys on the floor together, although if M. Jones' shooting touch is as good as it has looked in brief glimpses so far this year, I won't be distraught if he or Sulaimon starts over Cook. But either way, T. Jones and Cook will play a lot, and as such will play together a fair amount. Maybe it's only 10 mpg together (with both getting around 30 mpg), but they'll see plenty of time on the floor together this year.

If I had to take an early guess at minutes (based on a whopping 24 minutes of exhibition play without substitutions), I'd guess something like:

Okafor ~26-28
Jefferson ~28
Winslow ~24
Sulaimon ~28
T. Jones ~30
Cook ~26
M. Jones ~16
Plumlee ~10-12
Ojeleye ~4-6
Allen ~4-6

I agree with pretty much all of this. Then the last two months of the year, Semi's and Grayson's minutes will evaporate and some of the other players' minutes will go up.

[jimsumner]

The other odd thing was that Sean Obi was on Okafor's team rather than on MP3's team to give Oak another big to challenge him who has prior NCAA experience at SMU, apparently a decent defender.

Obi played at Rice.

Transfers have played in the B/w game in their sit-out years in the past. Rodney Hood not only played two seasons ago but he dominated. Seth Curry also played well in the same context.

Back-up power forward is an interesting dilemma. I think we all assume that Okafor starts at the 5, Jefferson at the 4, with Plumlee the back-up 5. Do Okafor and Plumlee play together any? Will Jefferson play some 5? Will Ojeleye get major minutes at the 4 or will Winslow move up from the wing?

I do think Ojeleye has a shot at getting into the rotation. Duke has a number of early games that should be blow-outs, so K may have some opportunities to play around with different lineups. But he does tend to compress the rotation as the season progresses, so Ojeleye and Allen likely have a small window.

[CDu]

You may be right. I think the limiting factors will be: (a) potential foul trouble (with other teams doing whatever they can to draw fouls from our star freshman big man); and (b) fatigue from other really big, strong men constantly banging and bumping him (something he rarely experienced in high school and may or may not be experiencing to the same extent in practices -- I'm sure Marshall is physical with Jahlil, but there are limits to how you beat up teammates that opposing centers will probably not observe).

I agree that those will be the keys to how much he plays. He certainly isn't going to be threatened by anyone on our team for playing time at C. It's all up to how he adapts to the physicality of college ball and avoiding foul trouble.

I agree with pretty much all of this. Then the last two months of the year, Semi's and Grayson's minutes will evaporate and some of the other players' minutes will go up.

Yup. And when those guys' minutes go down, I suspect that it'll be Cook/Sulaimon getting Allen's minutes and Jefferson/Winslow getting Ojeleye's. I also wouldn't be surprised if Okafor started cutting into Plumlee's minutes down the stretch as well. Although that is contingent on the discussion above re: foul trouble/physicality.