Top 5 Films of Winter 2014

[Jarhead]

Jason, any thoughts about Unforgettable? In my view the book was not just golden, it was diamond studded. What's the word on the movie? Does Angelina Jolie handle her job okay? I'll be seeing it, regardless, but I want it to be a blockbuster.

[bjornolf]

If I had seen a trailer for Into the Woods before I had had to vote, it would have knocked PoM or NatM26 out of my top 5.

[JasonEvans]

Jason, any thoughts about Unforgettable? In my view the book was not just golden, it was diamond studded. What's the word on the movie? Does Angelina Jolie handle her job okay? I'll be seeing it, regardless, but I want it to be a blockbuster.

You mean Unbroken. Unforgettable was a pretty mediocre mid-90s film with Ray Liotta.

I have not seen it yet, though I think I am going to a screening on Wednesday. The buzz was really great for a while, but has decidedly cooled off as there have been screenings. As I mentioned upthread, it did not get any Golden Globe nominations, which is sorta a big deal for a film like this. Thus far, it is at just 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and even many of the positive reviews say it lacks a real emotional punch. The consensus is that it does what is should and looks beautiful, but it is almost trying too hard and falls short as a result.

Still, I bet a lot of folks go see it and the 4 million copies sold in the US pretty much guarantee it will make well over $50 million. But, as for whether it makes $100 or $150 million, that is very much up to how well it does on word of mouth. If Into the Woods is the preferred holiday adult film, then Unbroken could suffer.

-Jason "many say the movie just does not measure up to the book" Evans

[JasonEvans]

If, as many of us are starting to suspect, Into the Woods is film #5 in our contest, both BD80 and ncexnyc are going to go 5-for-5.

If, somehow, Night at the Museum can pull out the #5 spot, AncientPsychicT, Blue in the Face, Brian12215, cato, dball, El_Diablo, Highlander, JasonEvans (that's me!), Reisen, and wilson will all have a perfect score. Seeing as we have only had a couple perfect results in the history of the Winter contest, and never had one in the Summer contest, I am betting 10 of us won't get them all right.

-Jason "all other combinations are pretty much moot -- ain't no way we are going to have 2 more films not named Hobbit bust through the $170ish million that Interstellar makes" Evans

[Jarhead]

You mean Unbroken. Unforgettable was a pretty mediocre mid-90s film with Ray Liotta.

I have not seen it yet, though I think I am going to a screening on Wednesday. The buzz was really great for a while, but has decidedly cooled off as there have been screenings. As I mentioned upthread, it did not get any Golden Globe nominations, which is sorta a big deal for a film like this. Thus far, it is at just 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and even many of the positive reviews say it lacks a real emotional punch. The consensus is that it does what is should and looks beautiful, but it is almost trying too hard and falls short as a result.

Still, I bet a lot of folks go see it and the 4 million copies sold in the US pretty much guarantee it will make well over $50 million. But, as for whether it makes $100 or $150 million, that is very much up to how well it does on word of mouth. If Into the Woods is the preferred holiday adult film, then Unbroken could suffer.

-Jason "many say the movie just does not measure up to the book" Evans

Thanks for the analysis, Jason, and I am totally embarrassed in an unforgettable way for my broken name for the book and movie.

[weezie]

So, what about "Big Eyes"?

[mph]

If, as many of us are starting to suspect, Into the Woods is film #5 in our contest, both BD80 and ncexnyc are going to go 5-for-5.

If, somehow, Night at the Museum can pull out the #5 spot, AncientPsychicT, Blue in the Face, Brian12215, cato, dball, El_Diablo, Highlander, JasonEvans (that's me!), Reisen, and wilson will all have a perfect score. Seeing as we have only had a couple perfect results in the history of the Winter contest, and never had one in the Summer contest, I am betting 10 of us won't get them all right.

-Jason "all other combinations are pretty much moot -- ain't no way we are going to have 2 more films not named Hobbit bust through the $170ish million that Interstellar makes" Evans

FTR, 5 people went 5 for 5 in 2012 (CameronBornandBred, displaw, DukieDevil, jro2j, and yours truly). Given the small sample size of the winter poll and the much smaller range of competitive movies, it wouldn't surprise me to see 10 people go 5 for 5 in any particular year.

It is worth noting that Cato was the only person to go 5 for 5 in 2013 and could make history as the first person to be perfect in back to back winter polls.

We need to name an award for anyone who goes 10 for 10 in back to back polls (one summer and one winter). The Cato Slam sounds like something Ron Paul might order at Denny's.

[Udaman]

First we need someone to go 5 for 5 in a summer. I don't think that's happened yet has it?

Kicking myself for taking Exodus. That was just a dumb, dumb pick. Still think Interstellar lucked out due to no IMAX competition, but clearly Interstellar is my white whale this year (it's run ends today, by the way, as from here on out it falls 80% or more from day to prior week).

Btw, the reviews for Annie are just blisteringly bad. Glad none of us picked that one.

[JasonEvans]

So, what about "Big Eyes"?

Saw it. It was fine, but nothing too special. It is Tim Burton's most conventional piece of storytelling in a long, long time and the acting is good, but... I dunno... it just never really grabbed me all that much. Everything about it was just too simple and obvious. There are no surprises and the characters just aren't all that compelling. In fact, if you have seen the trailer, you have pretty much seen the movie. It won't be a strong award contender and the nature of the story isn't the kind of one that will be a big hit with audiences. It probably won't make more than about $25 mil at the boxoffice.

-Jason "I really thought it would be a great story, but it was just kinda... there" Evans

[JasonEvans]

First we need someone to go 5 for 5 in a summer. I don't think that's happened yet has it?

Nope. That is the dream. Doing it in the winter, with a lot less competition, is a big deal but not that huge. The summer, where there are almost always 8+ legit contenders (plus films that really surprise like Ted, Maleficent, Wedding Crashers, Hangover, and so on), is the truly difficult contest.

Still think Interstellar lucked out due to no IMAX competition, but clearly Interstellar is my white whale this year (it's run ends today, by the way, as from here on out it falls 80% or more from day to prior week).

Wait, so you are saying that Interstellar is going to drop 80% from the number it did last Tuesday? Dude... really? I doubt it.

Tues 12/9 - $825k -- 80% drop = $165k
Wed 12/10 - $684k -- 80% drop = $136.8k
Thu 12/11 - $694k -- 80% drop = $138.8k

-Jason "again, I love Udaman's confidence, but I disagree with his conclusions" Evans

[YmoBeThere]

-Jason "again, I love Udaman's confidence, but I disagree with his conclusions" Evans

In other words, you'd like to be across the poker table from him right now?

[JasonEvans]

In other words, you'd like to be across the poker table from him right now?

I kinda feel like this...

[CameronBornAndBred]

Good thing nobody voted for The Interview.

[JasonEvans]

Wait, so you are saying that Interstellar is going to drop 80% from the number it did last Tuesday? Dude... really? I doubt it.

Tues 12/9 - $825k -- 80% drop = $165k
Wed 12/10 - $684k -- 80% drop = $136.8k
Thu 12/11 - $694k -- 80% drop = $138.8k

-Jason "again, I love Udaman's confidence, but I disagree with his conclusions" Evans

So, we got the Tuesday numbers. Interstellar did a bit more than Udaman expected. He was calling for an 80% week-to-week drop, which would have had it making $165k. Well, it made $656k instead, a drop of just 20%, which is pretty much the week-to-week declines we have been seeing from Interstellar lately. Apparently, losing all those IMAX theaters to Hobbit 3 didn't crush it nearly as much as he had expected.

There is a saying my family often uses (generally to talk about me) that seems to apply to Udaman in this thread: "Often wrong, but never in doubt."

-Jason "I wish I was playing poker with Udaman!! He is certain that his pair of 5s are going to win but I am holding trips " Evans

[Udaman]

JE - sorry, what I was saying was that "today" was the last day. In other words Tuesday would be the last day with a decent drop compared to the prior week, because starting today (Wednesday) it's not on any IMAX screens, and that has easily added 30% to it's total take each day. Plus it's about to be dropped on other screens as well due to the Hobbitt.

I bet it falls 70% today (Wednesday) from last week.

And I'm a good poker player....just call my bluff if I ever bet against Matthew M.

[Tommac]

Tonight is the last time in Burlington, NC to see Intersteller so I'm going to see it for the second time. I enjoyed it the first time but tonight I hope to understand it better. I believe it's one of the more thought provoking movies of the year.

[JasonEvans]

I bet it falls 70% today (Wednesday) from last week.

I just love that you went from "80% of more" to 70%

We'll see. It will drop, no question about that, but probably not the way you predict. You have been off about every single prediction involving this film, even when you got to revise your predictions when you realized that your initial prediction was wrong. And you have been so supremely confident too. It has been fun.

-Jason "maybe you are about to get one right... but your track record says you are going to be wrong again" Evans

P.S. - Saw Unbroken last night... it was really dull. My eyes were drooping throughout. I did not know or care about any of the supporting characters. Looked nice, but a very blaaaah film.

[JasonEvans]

So, Interstellar made $440k on Wednesday, a drop of just 35% from a week ago... not nearly Udman's 80% (or his revised "I bet it falls 70%") prediction. It did lose 25% of its theaters from a week ago (most of which were IMAX theaters), but it is still doing pretty decent business in non-IMAX showings.

-Jason "Interstellar is now at $168.3 million in total boxoffice and will certainly eclipse the $170 mil mark this weekend" Evans

[Udaman]

I give up on this movie. Truly. It has acted in ways I've never seen (falling, but not falling as much as almost every other movie has done. Typically a movie with legs does OK, then starts to slowly do better as word of mouth spreads. This movie just keeps on hanging on, with 30-35% drops week to week. Just something you don't ever see).

It's going to break $180M now I think. Gulp!

[CameronBornAndBred]

I give up on this movie. Truly. It has acted in ways I've never seen (falling, but not falling as much as almost every other movie has done. Typically a movie with legs does OK, then starts to slowly do better as word of mouth spreads. This movie just keeps on hanging on, with 30-35% drops week to week. Just something you don't ever see).

It's going to break $180M now I think. Gulp!

whitteflag.jpg