My analyses reached the same conclusions. Here's what i said at the end of last week (DEFINITELY citing this to avoid self plagiarism :P )
source: http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...639#post749639
So, the games this week and who might we want to win while we're enjoying sipping mimosas on an off week?
Miami vs VT:
I actually think the pick has to be miami. If miami wins, they'll finish with 3 losses at best (FSU), and that puts VT at 3 losses as well...giving us a 2 game buffer over either. If VT wins, it puts miami out of contention, but means that we're are in BIG trouble if we lose to VT...putting us each at two divisional losses...we'd need another team to get in the tiebreaker to help us out.
UNC vs UVA:
I think the pick is UVA, for similar justification of above. If UVA wins, we have a 2 game buffer over UNC, as well as an effective 2 game buffer over UVA (FSU + tiebreak). If UNC wins, it puts UVA effectively out of contention (3 losses, tiebreak issues), as well as makes UNC very dangerous to lose to...putting them at 6-2 with only a SINGLE divisional loss. There is no situation in which we win a 6-2 tiebreak involving UNC.
Pitt vs GT:
Gotta be GT. If GT wins, pitt has 2 losses, and if we lose to pitt, we can end up in a 6-2 trio with GT and Pitt, all at 1-1 in among tied teams, and 4-2 against the division. It would come to record against 5-3 teams, which might include virgina or miami and could go a number of ways. If pitt wins, and we lose to pitt, pitt must lose 2 of their last 3...