2014 Bowl Selection Vigil

[arnie]

We won 7-6. I was two years old so I can't remember the details.

Right! And my grandparents weren't born by then either.

[Reilly]

I would like to get to the best bowl possible. I would like to avoid an SEC team.

Upthread I made a mistake when I wrote that the non-Pinstripe tier 1 bowls all involve SEC opponents. El Paso is what -- a Pac 12 opponent? Still better than Pinstripe and Big 10 for me.

Per Sagarin predictor, Duke would be "only" a 2 point (South Carolina), 5 point (Tenn), 6 point (TXA&M; Mizzou) or 7 point point (Florida) underdog against certain SEC teams. I wonder where the Belk/Gator/Nashville fall in the SEC bowl pecking order.

And to quote Cut, better to live in your hopes than live in your fears (and no, "I hope we don't get killed" doesn't count as a hope).

[sagegrouse]

We won 7-6. I was two years old so I can't remember the details.

College and pro HOFer Lance Alworth returned a punt for a TD in the first half to give Arkansas a 6-0 lead. Don Altman threw a TD pass to Claude "Tee" Moorman that resulted in a 7-6 Duke lead. At the end of the game, Duke was inside the Arkansas five-yard-line, but made no effort to score, giving the ball to FB Jerry McGee (Mike's brother) several times in a row.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

College and pro HOFer Lance Alworth returned a punt for a TD in the first half to give Arkansas a 6-0 lead. Don Altman threw a TD pass to Claude "Tee" Moorman that resulted in a 7-6 Duke lead. At the end of the game, Duke was inside the Arkansas five-yard-line, but made no effort to score, giving the ball to FB Jerry McGee (Mike's brother) several times in a row.

My rabid Tarheel neighbor's stepdad is Don Altman. Met him a few times, nice guy. Knees are shot though.

He has stories, I tell you what.

[BigWayne]

Upthread I made a mistake when I wrote that the non-Pinstripe tier 1 bowls all involve SEC opponents. El Paso is what -- a Pac 12 opponent? Still better than Pinstripe and Big 10 for me.

Per Sagarin predictor, Duke would be "only" a 2 point (South Carolina), 5 point (Tenn), 6 point (TXA&M; Mizzou) or 7 point point (Florida) underdog against certain SEC teams. I wonder where the Belk/Gator/Nashville fall in the SEC bowl pecking order.

And to quote Cut, better to live in your hopes than live in your fears (and no, "I hope we don't get killed" doesn't count as a hope).

SEC has the Citrus Bowl (now sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings, formerly Capital One Bowl) first after the playoff/Sugar Bowl slots.
Then they have the next six slots in a pool like we have the 4 bowls. Then they have the Birmingham and Independence Bowls in a mini pool as the last two bowls. So for most of the ACC/SEC matchups, there is no set order.

[Reilly]

Suppose FSU beats Florida, then loses to GT in the ACC championship game. That knocks FSU out of the 4-team playoff seemingly, and knocks them out of the Orange (GT lands there).

Between the Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach, there will be 4 or 5 at-large selections (1 of the 6 slots to the Group of Five best team; maybe 1 of the other 6 slots to the Big 10 champ if the Big 10 champ's not in the 4-team playoff).

If I'm reading this right, the bottom line is that, in theory, it's possible that (1) FSU stumbles and does not make the 4-team playoff; and that (2) FSU does not grab one of the ACC tie-in bowls b/c FSU grabs a "New Year's Six" slot.

********************

The criteria I was reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_Football_Playoff

In years when the bowls are not part of the playoff bracket, the highest-ranked non-playoff teams from the following conferences or groups will be selected as follows:

Rose Bowl — Big Ten #1 vs. Pac-12 #1
Sugar Bowl — SEC #1 vs. Big 12 #1
Orange Bowl — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Fiesta Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Peach Bowl — at-large or "Group of Five" (committee selection)
Additional selection criteria
The highest-ranked champion from the "Group of Five" mid-major conferences (American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) is guaranteed a berth if the group's top team is not in the playoff.[53]
The remaining five at-large bids will be determined by committee rankings.[53]
If the Big Ten or SEC champion is available for a non-playoff bowl in a year when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting semifinals, that team will appear in either the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, or Peach Bowl, but not the Orange Bowl.[53]
In the Orange Bowl, the SEC and Big Ten are guaranteed at least three appearances during the eight non-playoff years, while Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice.[54]
In non-playoff years, if the Orange Bowl matchup creates a regular-season rematch for the ACC representative, the bowl may choose to "skip over" the prescribed opponent from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame group and select the next highest-ranked team from the group. The team that was rejected would be placed in one of the three at-large bowls, if it meets ranking standards.[55]
In years when the Orange Bowl is a national semifinal, the ACC champion will play in the Fiesta or Peach bowls if it is not selected for the playoff.[56]
In choosing the pairings for the four non-playoff bowls, the committee will try to create "the most compelling matchups possible", while taking into account geography and team rematches from both the regular season and recent bowls.[57]

[BigWayne]

Could FSU play in the Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach this year?

Yes, if FSU loses to GT, it is very possible. Of the 12 slots in the New Year's Six bowls, only 6 are guaranteed - The power 5 Conference Champs and the top conf. champ of the other 5 conferences.

The other 6 slots are at large and should be closely matching the top 10 CFP rankings as one or two of those 6 teams will likely be below the top 12.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Interesting piece on FSU's dominance of the ACC

From the article:

Losses to #ACC teams over the last three years:
#FSU 1
#Florida 2
#Auburn 2
#OhioState 2
#USC 2
#NotreDame 3

[Bob Green]

ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.

[devildeac]

ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.

Hmmm, that Duke vs UF match-up sounds interesting, especially with our old OC on the Gators' sideline.

[OldPhiKap]

ESPN has their updated projections posted:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Prognosticator #1: Duke vs Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. This could be very good for creating a recruiting bump as Coach Cutcliffe has a strong foundation in the Volunteer State.

Prognosticator #2: Duke vs Florida in the Belk Bowl. A return to talent rich Charlotte would be a good thing.

I'm still feeling the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 team such as USC, Utah or Washington. My rationale is the ACC has to send a team to El Paso (middle of nowhere) and with our late season slump it might be our turn in the barrel. I've no problem with the Sun Bowl as I am ecstatic we are bowl eligible for the third consecutive season.

Hmmm, that Duke vs UF match-up sounds interesting, especially with our old OC on the Gators' sideline.

Prognosticator #2 has GT beating FSU and playing in the Orange, with FSU in the Russell. So take a big grain of salt (and a diuretic if you have high bp)

ACC blog prediction on ESPN is us in the Pinstripe, the one bowl I can't make (but there would be a good NYC metro turnout)

[Reilly]

... the Pinstripe, the one bowl I can't make ...

If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

I don't think I want to know what you did to not be allowed back in NYC.

[OldPhiKap]

If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere.

I don't think I want to know what you did to not be allowed back in NYC.

Until the statute of limitations runs, I ain't saying either.

[Reilly]

In the first PB game ever -- way back in 2010 -- the K-State QB got a killer Chris Combs-like unsportsmanlike penalty that made tying the game more difficult.

http://web.pinstripebowl.com/news/ar...66764900/news/

The flag on Combs at UVa was ridiculous, and this one sounds similar.

[Reilly]

FSU 11-0

GT 9-2

Clemson 8-3
Louisville 8-3
DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

Miami 6-5
BC 6-5

NCSU 6-5
UNC 6-5

VT 6-6
---------------------------

Pitt 5-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

Syr 3-8
WFU 3-8

- Currently 11 ACC + ND teams bowl-eligible. Could be 12 w/ Pitt win.
- ACC has 10 bowl slots; could be 11-13 with Citrus Bowl or Birmingham, or, for FSU, CFP or NY6 bowl.
- Go UGA Dawgs -- set Duke up to have the 2d best record in the ACC.
- Go Spurrier and South Carolina, have Clemson finish w/ worse record than us.
- Go KY over L'ville for same reason.
- Go USC -- win over ND, prevent them from leapfrogging us if we beat WFU.
- Go PItt, keep Miami down.
- Go State.
- Go Duke.

[Reilly]

My wish list (not considering Citrus):

1. Orlando (Russell)- Mon Dec 29 at 5:30 pm - Big 12

2. Jax (Gator) - Fri Jan 2 at 3:20 pm - SEC
or
Nashville (Music City) - Wed Dec 30 at 3:00 pm - SEC

3. Charlotte - Tues Dec 30 at 6:45 pm - SEC

4. Sun - Sat Dec 27 at 2:00 pm - Pac-12

5. NYC - Sat Dec 27 at 4:30 pm - Big 10

It's a little nuts there is no more internal ACC 1-win rule or some other type divider. Duke could be jumped by Miami, UNC ...

[BigWayne]

- Currently 11 ACC + ND teams bowl-eligible. Could be 12 w/ Pitt win.
- ACC has 10 bowl slots; could be 11-13 with Citrus Bowl or Birmingham, or, for FSU, CFP or NY6 bowl.

The P5 conferences control, by my count, 49 bowl slots overall. There are currently 46 P5+ND teams bowl eligible.
Up to 53 can still be eligible. The "other 5" conferences all have at least as many eligible teams as they have contracted slots.
There could be as many as 12 bowl eligible teams that can't find a bowl.

Of the 7 P5 teams that can still become eligible, 3 are unlikely to do so (Mich, Ok St, Ore. St.). If the other 4 get in (Pitt, Tenn, KY, Cal), then we are looking at 50 P5 teams for 49 spots. The 50th team, which will not be a very impressive one, would have to get a bowl to break a contract with one of the lower conferences to get a slot. So it's possible an ACC 6-6 team could get left at home.

[devildeac]

The P5 conferences control, by my count, 49 bowl slots overall. There are currently 46 P5+ND teams bowl eligible.
Up to 53 can still be eligible. The "other 5" conferences all have at least as many eligible teams as they have contracted slots.
There could be as many as 12 bowl eligible teams that can't find a bowl.

Of the 7 P5 teams that can still become eligible, 3 are unlikely to do so (Mich, Ok St, Ore. St.). If the other 4 get in (Pitt, Tenn, KY, Cal), then we are looking at 50 P5 teams for 49 spots. The 50th team, which will not be a very impressive one, would have to get a bowl to break a contract with one of the lower conferences to get a slot. So it's possible an ACC 6-6 team could get left at home.

IOW, Go Pack.

[Reilly]

Per this list: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014–15...all_bowl_games

I think I also count 49 slots ... would the Lockheed Martin at large be a 50th slot?

Ther appears to be 46 P5 + ND already eligible ... but the list at the bottom shows 9 possible other P5s ... not sure if accurate.

[Reilly]

FSU 11-0

GT 10-2

Clemson 9-3
Louisville 9-3

DUKE 8-3

Notre Dame 7-4

BC 7-5
NCSU 7-5

Miami 6-5

VT 6-6
UNC 6-6

---------------------------

Pitt 5-6

----------------------------

UVa 5-7

WFU 3-8

Syr 3-9