Page 4 of 5 FirstFirst ... 2345 LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 86
  1. #61
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.
    This is a wonderfully precise approximation.

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Take two inhalers Kedsy and call us in the morning. But, before you go under, remember these thoughts --

    • Coach K came back from his conquest of Spain and surveyed his estate: the moles, I mean, the Mercers, had torn up the landscape; the Hoos had taken over the stables; carcasses left by the Hawks of the Mountains from two years ago were still present.
    • Ahh, he concluded, the celebrated "best basketball coach in the world" was a joke and couldn't even get a salute from the critters in his own barnyard.
    • Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.
    • He thinks of his team: The three best players have never played a minute of college ball.
    • The three returning starters were useful and productive players a year ago but not stars in the Duke tradition.
    • The veterans who mostly sat a year ago are feisty, big and strong and are demanding playing time: Marshall is a seven-footer who runs like a gazelle and can swat shots with ease; Matt is very strong and can do most things well; Semi is the strongest player on the team and, although he played little, he had the best shooting percentages on last year's team.
    • Grayson Allen is a revelation -- surprisingly strong and athletic.
    • Well, things are gonna be different, and all ten players are going to play in every game, because I have no idea who will lead us in February and March.
    • And we are not taking a backseat to anyone this year.


    Warmly, your muse -- Sage
    Ah, Sage, let this be true. I hope it is as I think we may have the horses for it and would love to see what would happen. Preseason talk of changes notwithstanding, though, I'm not convinced anyone can teach as successful an old dog as Coach K this new a trick.

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    Technically Matt could start and still not be top 6 in the rotation. I believe Matt started a few games last year and still was number 10 in minutes.
    True. In the context of this discussion, my hypothetical is that Matt starts for most of the season and ends up in the top 6 in minutes.

    In case anyone's interested...

    Courtesy of Blue Devil Nation's twitter (and digging around their youtube account), here is Quinn praising Matt's improvement this season: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niFZfLFMFpI

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

    Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

    If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?
    This is a clever and fair question. And it gets at the bigger question of "how much should we take Coach K's comments this past year to heart?" He said that he would take a hard look at everything about the program. He has already stated that he has simplified the defense and we've seen evidence that he's switched from hedging on screens to "icing" the screens. So could it be possible that he extends the idea of change to a deeper rotation?

    Now, it is my opinion that rotation depth is not actually an issue with our past failures. Many, if not most, of the best teams tend toward a 7-8 man rotation. So I'm not sure why playing the 9th and 10th men (who are almost certainly substantially worse than the top 5-6 players) more will translate to better team results. So I don't expect that to be part of the changes. But I think it's fair to consider the possibility based on the end-of-season presser last spring and the changes we've already noted in practices this season.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

    Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

    If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?
    I'd be surprised if Matt starts. An article mentioned that Sheed is drawing the assignment of defending Tyus in practice, to push both Tyus's development as well as (IMO) to train Sheed to defend the opposing PG or star guard so that Tyus doesn't have to. Matt is a very good defender, by all accounts, but might be better suited to defend someone other than the PG.
    I think what has been seen out of practices so far is done more to prepare players for the types of assignments they'll draw during the year more so than what line-ups we'll be seeing. I have learned to not get too worked up over newplayeritis, and although Matt is not "new", he is newer than Sheed. That being said, last year's experiment with line-change substitutions (i am NOT saying i expect that to be repeated this year!) showed us that Sheed can shine as the lead guard in the second unit while Matt plays solid D withe first unit, so perhaps K will try to replicate that.
    If all 3 of Tyus, Quinn and Sheed start there won't really be a lead guard for a "2nd unit", although there may not be a need for that role since it is unlikely that K would pull all 3 of them at the same time absent some specific unforeseen circumstance.
    My $0.02 is not on Matt starting.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    I would not be shocked if both Matt Jones and Justise start, with Quinn and Rasheed coming off the bench. Tyus is going to need help in terms of perimeter defense and the tandem of Jones and Justise on the wings will make us a very strong on the ball defensive team.
    I completely agree with this (as a possibility - not sure it will work out that way) and would love to see it. We would have an incredible defensive team if we really do go with the white team in the video. If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Gary View Post
    I completely agree with this (as a possibility - not sure it will work out that way) and would love to see it. We would have an incredible defensive team if we really do go with the white team in the video. If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.
    This is how I feel too. I am checking most of my expectations at the door in terms of what will/will not happen this year, just because of the comments made this past off-season being so different from prior years. I still lean toward things drifting back toward the norm, but I'm much more open to the possibility of major changes than usual.

    And as for the idea of Matt Jones joining Tyus Jones and Winslow on the perimeter, it does have some intrigue. Especially if Matt Jones has improved his touch/confidence on the offensive end. With Tyus Jones, Okafor, and Jefferson being very capable scorers, I could certainly see the argument for going with more defense at the wing positions. Coincidentally, with Plumlee being not very offensive-minded, a second unit of Cook, Sulaimon, and Plumlee makes sense too.

    In any case, it should be an interesting season. Hopefully whatever changes made result in tremendous team success. It has been too long since we've won a championship (ACC or NCAA). Let's rectify that this year!

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

    Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

    If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?
    I think what I said (or at least what I meant to say) is that nobody who the model predicted to be outside the rotation has jumped into the top six. If that's not what I said then I misspoke -- for example, in 2006-07, the model predicted Jon Scheyer to be in the rotation as the fourth perimeter option (i.e., sixth or seventh in the rotation), but he ended up starting and second on the team in minutes played (clearly in the top 6). This season, the model predicts Matt Jones to be the 8th guy in an 8-man rotation (because when we have 5 perimeter guys with his rating or better, we have always gone 8-deep). So while it would be a big surprise to me and my model if Matt starts, it would neither be unprecedented nor contrary to the model.

    That said, I still strongly believe that (absent an important injury) Matt will (by the end of the season) end up 7th or even 8th on the team in minutes, so I'll stand by our "friendly bet" that this season the model will accurately predict both the top 6 and the top 8.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    [*]Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.
    Well, if by the "things are going to be different this year" he meant more than a change in the conditioning regimen and a simplification of the defense, I'll be surprised. For Coach K that's a lot of change already.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

    And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

    Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).
    Maybe, I guess we'll see at the end of the season. I will say that Jabari was 3rd in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage (23.0%) and 12th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage (11.4%), and I'll be surprised if Jahlil surpasses those marks by any significant degree. And hopefully the rebounds Justise gets are rebounds that last season our opponents got against our soft-rebounding perimeter players, rather than cannibalizing Amile's rebounds. So I still think if Amile plays 27 to 30 mpg, he has a decent shot at 8.5 to 9 rpg (and I'm very confident he'll do better than the 6.0 rpg that the post I responded to suggested).

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary View Post
    If Matt can be consistent with his outside shot I believe he can start. But he's got to be consistent in order to take advantage of Jahlil. In fact that's my only real question. Which combo is best going to be able to space the floor to allow Jahlil room to work his magic on the block? It's funny, because last year we had both Parker and Hood as outside shooters who would have been great alongside Okafor. This year our forwards aren't nearly as proficient with the outside shot, so it's going to be interesting to see how this all pans out.
    Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

    Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post

    Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

    Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.
    Yep, that's the quandary in my mind as well. It sounds like an absolutely fabulous defensive team, but with very little outside shooting. Perhaps Matt and Justise are hitting at a much higher clip than we realize in practice? I'd love for that to be the case, because both are defensive powerhouses (this coming admittedly from a small sample-size of viewing).

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post



    Yeah, even if Matt shoots twice as well from three-land as he did last season, a lineup of Tyus/Matt/Justise/Amile/Jahlil is a shockingly poor outside shooting team, especially for a Duke team. At least one of Quinn or Rasheed (and maybe both) almost have to start with Tyus/Amile/Jahlil in order to space the floor properly.

    Based on K's comments about Matt's and Justise's defense, it wouldn't surprise me at this point if one of them enters the starting lineup (pushing probably Rasheed to the second unit), but I'll be shocked if we play both together (with both Quinn and Rasheed on the bench) for a significant chunk of time.
    I agree with this. Coach K has a rep for being a defense first coach, but I think his offensive prowess is often overlooked. Take away the 2006-2007 season and Duke has not been out of the top 20 on offense in the KenPom era (since 2002) and has only not been in the top 10 twice. Historically, it hasn't mattered who Duke lost from the previous year, the team knows how to score year end and year out. Spacing and making 3's are a huge part of Duke's offensive success (though, Duke has been far from completely dependent on the three as is the common trope . . . but that's another story). Quinn and Rasheed can hit outside shots. I think that gets at least one of them into the starting lineup and almost guarantees that the two of them see plenty of court time. It might not be our best lineup, defensively, but I'd be surprised if Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Amile, and Jahlil isn't our most potent offensive 5. I suspect we'll see that combo quite a bit, even if it isn't the starting lineup.

    I want to see us improve on defense, for sure, but the staff also wants Jahlil to be able to go to town on the offensive end, too. Unless Matt pulled a Space Jam and took and took Andre's shooting talent (which clearly hasn't happened cause Andre's been on fire in the Heat camp), I just see a lineup with Tyus, Matt, and Justise as too anemic from distance to give Jahlil the space he needs. Here's to hoping Matt comes out on fire from three this season and proves me wrong.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Maybe, I guess we'll see at the end of the season. I will say that Jabari was 3rd in the ACC in defensive rebounding percentage (23.0%) and 12th in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage (11.4%), and I'll be surprised if Jahlil surpasses those marks by any significant degree. And hopefully the rebounds Justise gets are rebounds that last season our opponents got against our soft-rebounding perimeter players, rather than cannibalizing Amile's rebounds. So I still think if Amile plays 27 to 30 mpg, he has a decent shot at 8.5 to 9 rpg (and I'm very confident he'll do better than the 6.0 rpg that the post I responded to suggested).
    Well, I would be surprised if Okafor exceeds the 23.0 dreb% by any significant degree. However, I'd expect him to top Parker's 11.4 oreb% fairly comfortably. Similarly, I'd expect Plumlee's added minutes (at the expense of one of our worst rebounders in Hairston) will factor in as well. So while some of those rebounds will come from the opposition, some are going to come from Jefferson. And with Winslow likely being a better rebounder than Hood (who was pretty passive on the glass), that is going to sap even more chances.

    We're talking about a ~18-30% increase in Jefferson's minutes per game. And you're expecting him to have a ~25-30% increase in his rebounds per game? Even with three upgrades in rebounding over their predecessors around him? Seems fairly optimistic.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an increase in rpg for Jefferson. Perhaps to around 7.5 rpg. But with Okafor and Plumlee likely playing 35+ mpg combined and with Winslow replacing Hood, I find it hard to believe that Jefferson will maintain his rebounds per minute from last year, let alone improve them. Averaging 8.5-9 rpg would be an amazing accomplishment with Okafor on the floor.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

    Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

    If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?
    Well, you weren't asking me. But you're gonna get my response anyway.

    I definitely agree that a 9-man (call it a more-than-7.5/8-man) rotation is more possible than usual. Still not probable. But more probable than usual, and perhaps much more probable than usual (if usual is next to zero).

    The water is just murkier than the "typical" preseason. There are many data points that suggest K is trying some different things. One thing's for sure, I am much less confident in my starting lineup projections than I've ever been in late October.

    I really can't wait for the Blue-White game.

    - Chillin

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, I would be surprised if Okafor exceeds the 23.0 dreb% by any significant degree. However, I'd expect him to top Parker's 11.4 oreb% fairly comfortably. Similarly, I'd expect Plumlee's added minutes (at the expense of one of our worst rebounders in Hairston) will factor in as well. So while some of those rebounds will come from the opposition, some are going to come from Jefferson. And with Winslow likely being a better rebounder than Hood (who was pretty passive on the glass), that is going to sap even more chances.

    We're talking about a ~18-30% increase in Jefferson's minutes per game. And you're expecting him to have a ~25-30% increase in his rebounds per game? Even with three upgrades in rebounding over their predecessors around him? Seems fairly optimistic.

    I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an increase in rpg for Jefferson. Perhaps to around 7.5 rpg. But with Okafor and Plumlee likely playing 35+ mpg combined and with Winslow replacing Hood, I find it hard to believe that Jefferson will maintain his rebounds per minute from last year, let alone improve them. Averaging 8.5-9 rpg would be an amazing accomplishment with Okafor on the floor.
    Well, I guess I suggested 23% to 30%, anyway. I could be comfortable with a prediction of 8.1 to 9.0 (18%-30% increase, same as his minutes), if that would appease you.

    Either way, you may be right. But considering Amile is a year older and much more bulked up (and most players improve under such circumstances), I see no reason to expect his rebounding prowess to diminish, as you apparently do. Like I said before, we won't know who's right until the end of the season.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Well, I guess I suggested 23% to 30%, anyway. I could be comfortable with a prediction of 8.1 to 9.0 (18%-30% increase, same as his minutes), if that would appease you.

    Either way, you may be right. But considering Amile is a year older and much more bulked up (and most players improve under such circumstances), I see no reason to expect his rebounding prowess to diminish, as you apparently do. Like I said before, we won't know who's right until the end of the season.
    I don't expect Jefferson's rebounding prowess to diminish at all. In fact, I would guess he will be a better rebounder. But I expect his opportunities to diminish thanks to the increase in prowess of his teammates.

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I don't expect Jefferson's rebounding prowess to diminish at all. In fact, I would guess he will be a better rebounder. But I expect his opportunities to diminish thanks to the increase in prowess of his teammates.
    Amile will also be playing further from the basket on most possessions, on both ends, than he did a year ago. I think your projection of ~7.5 rpg is more reasonable, all things considered.

  16. #76
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Gary View Post
    Yep, that's the quandary in my mind as well. It sounds like an absolutely fabulous defensive team, but with very little outside shooting. Perhaps Matt and Justise are hitting at a much higher clip than we realize in practice? I'd love for that to be the case, because both are defensive powerhouses (this coming admittedly from a small sample-size of viewing).
    I said it at the time he committed, or even before actually, and I'll say it again. People around here are underestimating the offensive skills and talent of Justise Winslow. He's talked about sometimes on here like he's some kind of robotic clod on offense. He's not. Is he a deadeye, JJ Redick-style three-point bomber from long range? No. But the kid is very comfortable taking and making 17-foot jumpshots, he slashes to the hoop well, he's excellent in transition, he sees the floor well, he finishes in traffic, all of it. He's not going to have gaudy numbers, because he'll defer to Jahlil -- as he should -- and to guys like Quinn and Rasheed, but the kid can put the ball in the hole when the team needs him to do so, and when the opportunity presents itself. Just because outside shooting isn't the skill that separates him from others -- and I don't think that could be said of anybody on this team, actually -- it doesn't mean he can't make outside shots at a reasonable rate, especially if he's essentially ignored out there by the opponent. In fact, based on his performance last year, I'm not any more confident in Matt Jones shooting an 18 or 20 foot jumpshot than I am in Justise Winslow.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.

    That said, I assume Grayson will play in blowouts and in the early part of the schedule. But by the end of January, if Grayson is still in the rotation I'll be surprised.



    I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.

    Stats don't always move in perfect correlation to minutes. Singler's rebounding per game went down in his junior year (2010) despite his minutes going up from his sophomore year. Some of that can be attributed, perhaps, to a slower pace of play by Duke; or due to Zoubek's impact on the overall rebounding distribution. On the other hand - Singler's rebounding was about the same in 2011 (about the same minutes per game) when Zoubek was gone and our tempo picked up (from 68 -72 possessions per game), so who knows? For what it's worth, we were one of the slowest tempo teams last season at 67 possessions per game (about the bottom 25 or 30 percent - remember all that talk about running and pressing?) and that may very well go up this year. With all that being said, there is probably a better chance that Amile's rebounding rate goes up than down, even though I think the presence of Okafor in terms of rebounding by Jefferson will be greater than Jabari was. So maybe he'll get 7-8 rebounds a game instead of in the 6s.

    I think 9 is a big stretch - and certainly not a threshold that if he's below it should be considered a disappointment. Jabari didn't get to 9 rebounds a game last year. In fact, do you know how many players in the K era have averaged 9 or more rebounds a game for a season? 5: Mason (3 times '11, '12, 13); Shelden ('04, '05, '06); Brand ('99); Parks ('95); and Laettner ('90). Interestingly, all of those guys were centers for Duke. If you lower the threshold to 8 rebounds, in addition to those mentioned and Jabari who averaged 8.7, the only others are Boozer ('02) and Greg Newton ('96) - also centers. McRoberts and Zoubek came close in '07 and '10, respectively - again, centers. So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it. Is somewhere between 7 and 8 possible - yes. Likely - maybe. But to do more than that would be almost unprecedented - as a side note it shows what a great rebounder Jabari was last season - although I guess he did play a lot of minutes at center.

    Regarding Grayson, I know all the thinking on a 7-8 man rotation and the evidence of K's patterns. However, K has made comments about the depth of the team and how the talent really extends to all of the scholarship players. I expect Grayson to get a chance to play this year, even as the 9th man in the rotation. It might only be 7-8 minutes a game, and he might not see a lot of action in close conference games in the second half when K tends so shorten the rotation to 6-7 players. But what if he can shoot 75-80% from the line? Might we then see him get some action in late game situations? Or what if he turns out to be one of our best 3 point shooters and we need more court spacing? I think he is very likely to be #9 in the rotation, but I also think he might be good enough to be the rare #9 that gets some steady court time.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    Stats don't always move in perfect correlation to minutes. Singler's rebounding per game went down in his junior year (2010) despite his minutes going up from his sophomore year. Some of that can be attributed, perhaps, to a slower pace of play by Duke; or due to Zoubek's impact on the overall rebounding distribution. On the other hand - Singler's rebounding was about the same in 2011 (about the same minutes per game) when Zoubek was gone and our tempo picked up (from 68 -72 possessions per game), so who knows? For what it's worth, we were one of the slowest tempo teams last season at 67 possessions per game (about the bottom 25 or 30 percent - remember all that talk about running and pressing?) and that may very well go up this year. With all that being said, there is probably a better chance that Amile's rebounding rate goes up than down, even though I think the presence of Okafor in terms of rebounding by Jefferson will be greater than Jabari was. So maybe he'll get 7-8 rebounds a game instead of in the 6s.

    I think 9 is a big stretch - and certainly not a threshold that if he's below it should be considered a disappointment. Jabari didn't get to 9 rebounds a game last year. In fact, do you know how many players in the K era have averaged 9 or more rebounds a game for a season? 5: Mason (3 times '11, '12, 13); Shelden ('04, '05, '06); Brand ('99); Parks ('95); and Laettner ('90). Interestingly, all of those guys were centers for Duke. If you lower the threshold to 8 rebounds, in addition to those mentioned and Jabari who averaged 8.7, the only others are Boozer ('02) and Greg Newton ('96) - also centers. McRoberts and Zoubek came close in '07 and '10, respectively - again, centers. So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it. Is somewhere between 7 and 8 possible - yes. Likely - maybe. But to do more than that would be almost unprecedented - as a side note it shows what a great rebounder Jabari was last season - although I guess he did play a lot of minutes at center.

    Regarding Grayson, I know all the thinking on a 7-8 man rotation and the evidence of K's patterns. However, K has made comments about the depth of the team and how the talent really extends to all of the scholarship players. I expect Grayson to get a chance to play this year, even as the 9th man in the rotation. It might only be 7-8 minutes a game, and he might not see a lot of action in close conference games in the second half when K tends so shorten the rotation to 6-7 players. But what if he can shoot 75-80% from the line? Might we then see him get some action in late game situations? Or what if he turns out to be one of our best 3 point shooters and we need more court spacing? I think he is very likely to be #9 in the rotation, but I also think he might be good enough to be the rare #9 that gets some steady court time.
    Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.
    Yes. Which is why only centers have averaged more than 8 rebounds per game under Coach K.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by luvdahops View Post
    Kyle also played primarily the 3 as a junior and senior, after playing mostly in the 4-5 spots his first two years. As with my comment on Amile above, proximity to the basket has an impact on rebounding rates.
    Yup. There are a few different factors conspiring against Jefferson reaching 8-9 rpg. Better rebounding teammates reducing his opportunities and playing further from the rim (i.e., less center) reducing his opportunities as well.

    And as mr. S illustrated, it's just really hard to average 9 rpg at Duke under Coach K. The ones who have done so were all centers, and all who averaged even 8 rpg led the team. So for Jefferson to average 8-9 rpg, that is more or less implying that he will lead the team in rebounds.

    The more I think about it, the less confident I am that Jefferson will even reach 7.5 rpg for the reasons previous posters have so eloquently noted. I think Okafor and Plumlee (mostly Okafor of course) are going to make a huge dent in the available rebounds for other Devils this year. So while I anticipate improvement from Jefferson, I think his rebound numbers aren't going to really reflect that. I certainly wouldn't call a 7rpg season this year a disappointment.

Similar Threads

  1. Emily K Center Fundraiser - Inside Duke Basketball 2014
    By tfk53 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 10-17-2014, 11:50 PM
  2. Report from Inside Duke Basketball event practice
    By gwlaw99 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 10-14-2013, 02:10 AM
  3. Title of music for "Inside Basketball with Duke's Coach K"
    By WiJoe in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 02-12-2012, 06:44 PM
  4. Inside Basketball With Duke's Coach K??
    By dukeblue1206 in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-22-2010, 03:40 PM
  5. Inside Basketball with Duke's Coach K (TV)
    By DukeDevilDeb in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 01-20-2008, 04:05 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •