Inside Duke Basketball practice notes

[Troublemaker]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Loved watching that. (BTW, what were the players yelling out on ball screens? "Ice, Ice, Ice!")

Courtesy Blue Devil Nation - video of Amile's interview with the press. (No need to really watch -- it matches the text in the N&O article. But I just enjoy Amile's energetic interviews.)

[Kedsy]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

[COYS]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Yeah, I agree. The video was edited a little, but it still showed a glimpse of what the guys look like in a free-flowing, game-like context. Grayson and Semi both have clear potential, but their athletic gifts didn't appear to be enough to make them look comfortable. I hope we're blowing out teams enough early in the season to have some good looks at their potential, but I will definitely be surprised if they're in the rotation by mid January. Matt knocked down one three and played some really tough defense. His size definitely seems like an asset on the wing. I can see why he's getting buzz as being the 7/8th man in the rotation Marshall still looks energetic out there, but he is still a bit mechanical on offense (although he had one pretty lefty hook over Jahlil). He'll get minutes simply because he's the best option to back up Jahlil. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see us play small a bit more than we thought when Jahlil is out.

Meanwhile, the rest of the projected rotation guys appeared to my amateur eyes to be a cut above the rest, despite what Coach K said to the media. Tyus, Jahlil, and Justise all looked really smooth (Justise was causing some problems for Rasheed when Rasheed was on offense, and when Rasheed got into the lane, he was met by Jahlil with some well-timed blocks). Amile seems to really be maturing as a leader on the court and even had a classic opportunistic bucket. His versatility on defense and his knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense are (I think) going to be highlighted this year because Jahlil is going to draw so much attention. Rasheed and Quinn were working hard on the Blue Team, but they seemed to lack help on the offensive end. I would imagine they would look a lot better surrounded by Tyus and Jahlil. Tyus looked perfectly comfortable with the ball in his hands and got the white team out in transition as often as he possibly could. Meanwhile, Jahlil absolutely looks like an NBA player. His post moves are fast and decisive. He moves well on defense and offense (how nice was it to see a big guy rotate to challenge shots when the opposing guard got into the lane?). Quite honestly, I can't wait to see what he can do.

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

[luvdahops]

Yeah, I agree. The video was edited a little, but it still showed a glimpse of what the guys look like in a free-flowing, game-like context. Grayson and Semi both have clear potential, but their athletic gifts didn't appear to be enough to make them look comfortable. I hope we're blowing out teams enough early in the season to have some good looks at their potential, but I will definitely be surprised if they're in the rotation by mid January. Matt knocked down one three and played some really tough defense. His size definitely seems like an asset on the wing. I can see why he's getting buzz as being the 7/8th man in the rotation Marshall still looks energetic out there, but he is still a bit mechanical on offense (although he had one pretty lefty hook over Jahlil). He'll get minutes simply because he's the best option to back up Jahlil. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see us play small a bit more than we thought when Jahlil is out.

Meanwhile, the rest of the projected rotation guys appeared to my amateur eyes to be a cut above the rest, despite what Coach K said to the media. Tyus, Jahlil, and Justise all looked really smooth (Justise was causing some problems for Rasheed when Rasheed was on offense, and when Rasheed got into the lane, he was met by Jahlil with some well-timed blocks). Amile seems to really be maturing as a leader on the court and even had a classic opportunistic bucket. His versatility on defense and his knack for being in the right place at the right time on offense are (I think) going to be highlighted this year because Jahlil is going to draw so much attention. Rasheed and Quinn were working hard on the Blue Team, but they seemed to lack help on the offensive end. I would imagine they would look a lot better surrounded by Tyus and Jahlil. Tyus looked perfectly comfortable with the ball in his hands and got the white team out in transition as often as he possibly could. Meanwhile, Jahlil absolutely looks like an NBA player. His post moves are fast and decisive. He moves well on defense and offense (how nice was it to see a big guy rotate to challenge shots when the opposing guard got into the lane?). Quite honestly, I can't wait to see what he can do.

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

Agree with all of this. Matt seems to be pretty clearly in the mix at this point, so 7.5 vs. 8 really comes down to how much Marshall plays (40 - Big Jah's mpg - mpg of small ball w/Amile at 5 and Justise at 4). Also loved seeing Jahlil hit Amile cutting to the hoop in the drill phase - gives me additional hope that our offense will have a very different look this year.

[_Gary]

So yeah, from that admittedly limited look into practice, I agree with Kedsy. We might get a 7 1/2 or 8-man rotation. But I would be really surprised if it goes beyond that as the games get tougher.

It's only one video, but I'm forced to agree. After viewing that I'm hard-pressed to see us go more than 8 deep on a regular basis. It's hard for me to believe that Matt will actually beat out Quinn or Rasheed for the 2 spot, but if he does that actually is a positive in my book. We know what we'll get from Rasheed and Quinn if they are coming off the bench, so having Matt contribute at a high enough level for him to start is a good thing. Still, I expect we will see Tyus and Quinn start together (not my preference, due to lack of size) once the season kicks off.

[Troublemaker]

That short clip of like ten scrimmage plays made it obvious that Grayson and Semi were well behind their teammates?

Really? I feel like a rube who stares at a piece of modern art and just doesn't appreciate what everyone else is seeing. If Grayson and Semi had hit their 3-pt attempts, would we even be talking about this?

Now, if you want to say that those two have been projected to be the 9th and 10th men by conventional wisdom for some time now, and it's hard to believe Coach K will play beyond 8 players in any season, fine. I probably agree with that.

But that clip did nothing to persuade me either way. It's not just a sample size problem. It's a Jackson-Pollock-actually-stinks problem. There's nothing to see there, imo!

[Kedsy]

If Grayson and Semi had hit their 3-pt attempts, would we even be talking about this?

I think we still probably would be. Both Semi and Grayson appeared to be thinking before they did anything, both on offense and (more importantly) on defense.

Sure, maybe it was just an "off" few minutes for both of them, but combine it with the fact that Coach K going more than 8 deep would be more or less unprecedented, and the balance tips toward the tried-and-true.

[OldPhiKap]

{insert obligatory "if only we still had Murphy!" post here}

[CDu]

I think we still probably would be. Both Semi and Grayson appeared to be thinking before they did anything, both on offense and (more importantly) on defense.

Sure, maybe it was just an "off" few minutes for both of them, but combine it with the fact that Coach K going more than 8 deep would be more or less unprecedented, and the balance tips toward the tried-and-true.

I am firmly in the "we'll whittle down to a 7.5-8 man rotation" camp. However, nothing in that video suggested to me that Ojeleye and Allen were "thinking before doing." At least not any moreso than, say, Matt Jones or Plumlee. Just not enough sample size to make any meaningful assessment of where those guys are, especially since so much of the action was being handled by our three PG and our two post guys.

[Kedsy]

I am firmly in the "we'll whittle down to a 7.5-8 man rotation" camp. However, nothing in that video suggested to me that Ojeleye and Allen were "thinking before doing." At least not any moreso than, say, Matt Jones or Plumlee. Just not enough sample size to make any meaningful assessment of where those guys are, especially since so much of the action was being handled by our three PG and our two post guys.

I agree with you that Marshall may fall into the same camp (at this point, he might be the "half" in the 7.5 man rotation). I didn't notice it so much with Matt. I agree the sample size is small.

On the other hand, to believe that something that's never happened before (9 or 10 man rotation) might happen now, I'd expect to see positive signs, e.g., that the end-of-the-rotation guys looked just (or almost) as comfortable and skillful as the top-of-the-rotation guys (supporting Coach K's comment that there hasn't been much separation). I'd hope to see such positive signs even in a small sample. Unfortunately I didn't see it, so unless and until we do see it I personally don't expect the 9th and 10th men to play very much outside of garbage time.

[MChambers]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Some sort of experiment to see how we'd react? When I realized you were saying we'd go 10 deep, I almost believed it.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from one video clip of one practice, BUT...a big question for me going into this season is how well Tyus plays defense on the opposing PG. I'm sure he'll improve, but I didn't love his defensive stance in the clip. Quin blows by him because his knees aren't bent, and he's using his hands instead of sliding his feet. He has to work on that.
On a more positive note, Okafor is a horse! Feed him early and often!!

[mr. synellinden]

Courtesy The Devil's Den: video of yesterday's practice (with lots of scrimmage plays in there)

Loved watching that. (BTW, what were the players yelling out on ball screens? "Ice, Ice, Ice!")

Courtesy Blue Devil Nation - video of Amile's interview with the press. (No need to really watch -- it matches the text in the N&O article. But I just enjoy Amile's energetic interviews.)

My takes (for what they're worth) from this video:

Rasheed still looks like he is moving too quickly and doesn't know what he wants to do when he gets into the lane. The two blocks by Jahlil reminded me too much of his struggles with awkward drives and an inability to finish at the rim last year. I think he needs to get in his head that drawing a foul is okay - and put his body in a position to draw contact instead of trying to avoid contact which gives the defender room to block shots - especially when he goes left.

Jahlil looks so polished and fundamental and mature beyond his years. He is a great athlete in the same way someone like Shane Battier or Tim Duncan or Jason Kidd is - not speed or jumping ability wise, but rather in terms of coordination, body control, hand-eye coordination and touch. He is going to be an All-Star in the NBA and possibly a dominant, first-team All-NBA big man.

There is a clear chemistry between Tyus and Jahlil (I suspect Justise is part of the group as well, but is not as tight as the other two). I think one of the keys to this team will be whether Jefferson and Cook get their respect and vice versa - do the experienced team leaders have enough maturity and confidence to defer when needed to the more talented players, and do the rookies listen and learn from the leaders. If those 4 come together - and if Rasheed is really willing to sacrifice for the good of the team (a la Nate James in 2001), this team could go all the way.

Grayson is going to play this year. Although he missed the shots in the video, he did not look tentative at all to me or like he was thinking too much or the game was moving too fast for him. He can handle the ball, he can shoot and we know he's a great athlete. I think I can see him playing a role like Andre in 2010.

I would not be shocked if both Matt Jones and Justise start, with Quinn and Rasheed coming off the bench. Tyus is going to need help in terms of perimeter defense and the tandem of Jones and Justise on the wings will make us a very strong on the ball defensive team. It's also possible that Tyus and Quinn start with Rasheed rotating in at G (with Grayson getting a few minutes if there is foul trouble or we need more outside shooting), and Matt subbing in for Justise (or for Jefferson with Justise playing the four) - and Marshall swapping in for Jahlil. I think in the early games, Coach K will be looking closely at the backcourt/wing combinations among Tyus, Quinn, Justise, Matt and Rasheed and trying to decide which combination of those 3 is our best - and depending upon the situation.

There were some good examples of ball movement on the white team - it looks like Matt and Amile are developing some chemistry on offense. I'm hoping we move the ball better this season and create more easy baskets. Tyus is really going to be the key to that (I have to reserve initial judgment on Tyus. I just did not see enough in that video for any meaningful first impressions) but I did see evidence of us being a better passing team all around.

Jefferson looks ready to have a great - possibly All-ACC level - season. I can envision him averaging 12 and 6 with a block or so per game. One thing I haven't seen or heard is whether he's developed any semblance of a jump shot. Even if his range is 10-12 feet, if he can develop that and open things up a little bit, he can really be a matchup problem and create more space for Jahlil.

Marshall looks more smooth to me - for him. He's always going to be a bit of clunky player, but he looks like he is moving freely - signs of being fully healthy - and with more confidence. He will contribute meaningfully this year - can he hit his FTs?

[mo.st.dukie]

I'm trying not to draw too many conclusions from one video clip of one practice, BUT...a big question for me going into this season is how well Tyus plays defense on the opposing PG. I'm sure he'll improve, but I didn't love his defensive stance in the clip. Quin blows by him because his knees aren't bent, and he's using his hands instead of sliding his feet. He has to work on that.
On a more positive note, Okafor is a horse! Feed him early and often!!

I don't think anybody should be expecting Tyus to be a great or even good defender this year. If the team defense is at a level it should be then it probably won't hurt the overall goal of winning games and championships if Tyus isn't a good defender. Team defense is very important and I like the potential we have there.

[Kedsy]

Grayson is going to play this year.

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before. I bought in for approximately 3 minutes and 12 seconds, but I'm past that now. I think it's a long shot. Make that a really long shot.

That said, I assume Grayson will play in blowouts and in the early part of the schedule. But by the end of January, if Grayson is still in the rotation I'll be surprised.

Jefferson looks ready to have a great - possibly All-ACC level - season. I can envision him averaging 12 and 6 with a block or so per game.

I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.

[sagegrouse]

Watching that scrimmage, I'm back to expecting a 7.5 or 8-man rotation. Sorry about the brief bout of euphoria.

Take two inhalers Kedsy and call us in the morning. But, before you go under, remember these thoughts --

• Coach K came back from his conquest of Spain and surveyed his estate: the moles, I mean, the Mercers, had torn up the landscape; the Hoos had taken over the stables; carcasses left by the Hawks of the Mountains from two years ago were still present.
• Ahh, he concluded, the celebrated "best basketball coach in the world" was a joke and couldn't even get a salute from the critters in his own barnyard.
• Something has to change, so he announced that "things are going to be different" this year.
• He thinks of his team: The three best players have never played a minute of college ball.
• The three returning starters were useful and productive players a year ago but not stars in the Duke tradition.
• The veterans who mostly sat a year ago are feisty, big and strong and are demanding playing time: Marshall is a seven-footer who runs like a gazelle and can swat shots with ease; Matt is very strong and can do most things well; Semi is the strongest player on the team and, although he played little, he had the best shooting percentages on last year's team.
• Grayson Allen is a revelation -- surprisingly strong and athletic.
• Well, things are gonna be different, and all ten players are going to play in every game, because I have no idea who will lead us in February and March.
• And we are not taking a backseat to anyone this year.

Warmly, your muse -- Sage

[CDu]

I don't know about the points or blocks, but last season, Amile average a hair under 7 rpg in 22 mpg. You think he'll regress as a rebounder? I expect Amile to get more minutes this season (27 to 30), and if so I'll be very disappointed if he gets fewer than 8.5 or 9 rpg.

I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).

[BD80]

I think you are neglecting the fact that we are adding a much better complement of rebounders to the mix. Okafor is likely to grab a bunch of rebounds that might have otherwise gone to Jefferson. As such, I think it will be really hard for Jefferson to get to 8.5-9 rpg, even with the added playing time.

And that is without considering that Plumlee and Winslow are almost assuredly better rebounders than the guys they are replacing (Hairston and Hood).

Rebounding stats from year to year aren't exactly a zero-sum game, but they are close enough that I find it hard to believe Jefferson will average 8 rebounds per game by season's end (even though I think we will get more rebounds as a team).

And there won't be any misses for offensive rebound opportunities!

(OK maybe Marshall will run a couple of quick streaks of three or four offensive rebounds / failed put-backs)

[Troublemaker]

Grayson is clearly the 9th (or even 10th) guy in the rotation. You apparently buy into the idea that Coach K will do something he's never done before.

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

[Ichabod Drain]

Okay. But if I recall correctly, you told me your rotation model (which I truly do appreciate, btw) has always nailed the top 6 players in the rotation, right?

Matt Jones starting at SG, if it continues to happen, would be your model's first ever miss on the top 6, right? (And, incidentally, the score would then be Tmak's Stubborn Gut 1, Kedsy's Model 0 based on our previous friendly bet about whether your model could nail both the top 6 and top 8 this season.)

If Matt Jones is the starting 2, then maybe the model just doesn't work for this season. And a 9-man rotation is more possible than usual. Would you agree?

Technically Matt could start and still not be top 6 in the rotation. I believe Matt started a few games last year and still was number 10 in minutes.