Inside Duke Basketball practice notes

[Kedsy]

So if Jefferson were to average 8 or more rebounds per game, besides Jabari last year, he'd be the only non-center to do it.

Well, it's possible you're right about Amile not getting to 9 rpg, but I don't entirely agree with your analysis.

First of all, I'd argue Mason Plumlee was mostly a PF in 2011 and 2012 (Miles played C when he was in), and Mason averaged 9.2 rpg in 28.4 mpg in 2012 and 8.4 rpg in 25.6 mpg in 2011. Christian Laettner played PF in 1990 (Alaa Abdelnaby played C) and averaged 9.6 rpg.

Putting that aside for the moment, however, I'd argue the real reasons Duke PFs don't get so many rebounds is (a) we often don't play an actual power forward; and (b) when we do they often don't play so many minutes.

Here's my (admittedly hastily compiled) list of Duke PFs who stood taller than 6'6 and played 27+ mpg, going back to 1985-86:

2014, Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg; 8.7 rpg
2013, Ryan Kelly, 28.9 mpg; 5.3 rpg
2012, Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg; 9.2 rpg
2009, Kyle Singler, 32.2 mpg; 7.7 rpg
2004, Luol Deng, 31.1 mpg; 6.9 rpg
2002, Mike Dunleavy, 32.4 mpg; 7.2 rpg
2001, Shane Battier, 34.9 mpg; 7.3 rpg
2000, Shane Battier, 35.5 mpg; 5.6 rpg
1994, Antonio Lang, 30.1 mpg; 5.4 rpg
1990, Christian Laettner, 29.9 mpg; 9.6 rpg
1989, Danny Ferry, 33.2 mpg; 7.4 rpg
1988, Danny Ferry, 32.5 mpg; 7.6 rpg
1987, Danny Ferry, 33.2 mpg; 7.8 rpg
1986, Mark Alarie, 29.8 mpg, 6.2 rpg

So, assuming you accept my list 2 out of 14 boarded better than 9 rpg. And the majority topped 7 rpg.

But I would go further and suggest that most of even these PFs wouldn't qualify as a "true" PF like Amile. They were most stretch fours, big wings, whatever else you want to call them.

I would argue that the only power forwards that Amile could be fairly compared with from a rebounding perspective (and only from a rebounding perspective, he's obviously not the player that some of these guys were) would be Jabari Parker, Mason Plumlee, Christian Laettner, and maybe Antonio Lang. Possibly you throw Ferry in there too. And if you accept that, then allowing Antonio Lang as an outlier, we're looking at something between 7.4 rpg and 9.6 rpg.

I would argue further that even that analysis might miss the mark a little and that we should look at rebounding percentage, which depends not on minutes played but on rebounding opportunities. I only have rebounding percentage numbers going back to 1997, but here's the list of Duke PFs in that timeframe who played 20+ mpg, have had defensive rebounding percentages of 20+ and offensive rebounding percentages of 10+:

2014, Jabari Parker, 30.7 mpg; 23.0 dr%; 11.4 or%; 8.7 rpg
2012, Mason Plumlee, 28.4 mpg; 24.4 dr%; 12.0 or%; 9.2 rpg
OR
2012, Miles Plumlee (who I think was the center, but if you disagree), 20.5 mpg; 22.7 dr%; 16.6 or%; 7.1 rpg
2011, Mason Plumlee, 25.6 mpg; 23.3 dr%; 11.7 or%; 8.4 rpg

And that's it. Amile's rebounding percentages last season were 21.5 dr% and 14.8 or%. True, he's moving from C to PF so his opportunities might decrease, but if he stays even close to those percentages and gets 27+ mpg, we should be looking at somewhere between 8.5 and 9 rpg.

Feel free to disagree. I'm just saying there's not a lot of Duke PFs like Amile to compare with, so past data might not be so useful here.

[CDu]

Kedsy, I will disagree. First, I think you have been loose with the term PF in describing Mason. Mason played a LOT of C those years as Miles was largely a reserve and Kelly played PF. Second, how many of those PF had a dominant rebounder playing C alongside them? I suspect the answer is zero, with the possible exception being Laettner. We have had only a handful of seasons with a single player getting 8+ rpg, and never two in the same season.

So basically you are suggesting that one of the following things is going to happen:
a) Jefferson outrebounds Okafor, or
b) something that has never happened in the Coach K era is going to happen (two guys top 8 rpg in the same season)

I am going to say that neither of those scenarios is likely, and instead that the presence of Okafor and Plumlee and Winslow will eat too much into Jefferson's opportunities and prevent him from getting to 8 rpg. It seems much more plausible to me that Okafor will lead the team in rebounds, and by a reasonable margin. And that will mean that Jefferson, despite improving as a player, will see his rebound rate go down.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I will disagree. First, I think you have been loose with the term PF in describing Mason. Mason played a LOT of C those years as Miles was largely a reserve and Kelly played PF. Second, how many of those PF had a dominant rebounder playing C alongside them? I suspect the answer is zero, with the possible exception being Laettner. We have had only a handful of seasons with a single player getting 8+ rpg, and never two in the same season.

You're certainly entitled to disagree. But just last season, Jabari had 8.6 rpg last season and he played beside a dominant rebounder (Amile). Amile played 22.7 mpg last season but if he'd played 27+ (as I expect him to this season) he'd easily have topped 8 rpg. And Miles Plumlee had 7.1 rpg in only 20 mpg in 2012, which is another answer to your second question -- we played two dominant rebounders side-by-side in two of the past three seasons -- if Miles had gotten the minutes that Amile should get this season, Miles also would have easily surpassed 8 rpg. So, (a) while Mason did play some C, for half the game Miles was the center; and (b) while you're right that when he played Ryan Kelly was a stretch-four on that team, if we didn't have him and Miles had to play 25+ mpg, we would have had two guys with 8+ rebounds.

Most years, Duke's PF is a stretch-four like Ryan Kelly, essentially a big wing. Some years not even so big, like DeMarcus Nelson in 2008.

But we don't have that stretch-four this year, and we won't be playing a shorter-than-6'6 PF, either. If you don't count Mason, when has that happened in the Coach K era? Well, if you only count years where a PF played 25+ mpg, then not so many times. In 1990 Laettner wasn't a stretch-four yet (only 12 3-point attempts), and he grabbed 9.6 rpg. In 2014, Jabari really was a stretch-four, but he was big enough to sometimes play C, and he nabbed 8.7 rpg; in 2009, Kyle Singler was also really a stretch-four, but at least he was 6'8, and had 7.7 rpg; and in 1993 and 1994, Antonio Lang wasn't much of a rebounder (5.5 and 5.4 rpg). Danny Ferry was totally a stretch-four, but like Jabari he sometimes defended the opposing C, and he had three years ranging from 7.4 rpg to 7.8 rpg. So, other than Lang, these guys all either had 7.4+ rpg, with two out of the five guys topping 8 rpg.

We're essentially already dealing with an anomaly under Coach K: Amile is destined for 27+ mpg, is not a stretch-four, and is not undersized for the position. In my opinion it doesn't take so much imagination to see him keep up his rebounding pace.

Put another way, a good rebounding team gets 70% of its defensive rebounds and a little less than 40% of its offensive rebounds. There's plenty of room for two guys to grab 20+% defensively and 10+% offensively (of course there is, it happened for Duke in two of the last three seasons). And if Amile does that, he ought to top 8 rpg in 27+ mpg.

[BD80]

So many factors will impact rebounding stats.

Pace of play - more shots = more rebounds. Tyus will mean more shots per game. Amile is likely to be first big guy on break and most likely to get put-back on initial fast break shot. Our potent fast break will discourage opponents to send guards in to rebound, improving our defensive rebounding efficiency.

Style of play. If we run the offense through Jah, that will open up weak side rebounds for Amile. It will also place Amile on side that has to rotate to defend the break, often making him the second defender back and most likely to rebound fast break attempt.

Style of play II - shot selection, we lost Jabari, Rodney, Dre and Tyler - 4 of our top outside shooters. It is likely our shots will come closer to the basket, giving our "bigs" more offensive rebounding opportunities. I would suggest that players will encouraged to get the ball up at the rim for Jah - and Amile.

Jah is a strength/length/positioning rebounder. He will dominate his area, leaving Amile free to clean up his area. In contrast, Jabari was a ball seeker, giving up some position rebounds for the team while getting extra rebounds outside his position - some of which Amile would have had.

Jah is a rim protector, forcing more bad shots in close that Amile will be in position to rebound. Having Jah in position to challenge shots leaves him with back to the basket rather than in rebounding position.

I think Justise will be a significant rebounder for the team, which will reduce the rebounds gathered by Jah and by Amile.

But overall I believe we will be a much better rebounding team, and Amile's numbers improve.

[Troublemaker]

Fayetteville Observer article about Matt Jones

Snippet:

His approach can be summed up in the question scrawled in black marker across his blue shoes.

"Why not me?" it read. "I mean, why not me? Why can't I be a top player?" Jones said. ". Ultimately, I decided to (write) that to give me a visual picture of every time I want to get down on myself or every time I get sad. Things could be so much worse. Obviously, this year I'm coming in more grateful, more open to the Duke atmosphere. I'm definitely in a great place."

Also, video interview with Matt Jones (courtesy of Blue Devil Nation). Discusses his improved confidence and shooting this season. Says his shooting was "all mental" last season.

[Des Esseintes]

Fayetteville Observer article about Matt Jones

Snippet:


Also, video interview with Matt Jones (courtesy of Blue Devil Nation). Discusses his improved confidence and shooting this season. Says his shooting was "all mental" last season.

I really hope things are going better for Matt. Stories such as these remind me how hard it can be to play athletics at high DI level. As Coach K says, every player runs his own race. But that blade cuts both ways, which is to say not only in the sense that you shouldn't compare your progress to those around you but instead focus on running the best race you can. It ALSO means that, on one level at least, you are alone. You are part of a team, sure--and that means a lot--but everyone on that team competes with everyone else for a chunk of those 200 minutes. Not getting on the court has to be a lonely experience, especially for someone whose incoming ranking suggested a reasonable hope for real burn. Last year sounds like a real trial for him. I hope this season is a more pleasurable experience. I hope he gets minutes, and regardless of minutes I hope he feels less stressed and alone in his pursuit of success.