Phase 0 - 2014-2015 MBB Season

[elvis14]

Marshall still appears 2 inches taller than Jahlil in the team photo. I guess one could have thicker soles or one could be slouching. Jahlil at 6'10 3/4" with his reach is certainly NBA size, especially with his heft. Carrying that much weight will be difficult for him to play sustained long minutes.

If Jahlil was measured at 6/10 3/4" in shoes and Marshall was measured at 7'1" in shoes, wouldn't we expect Marshall to appear 2 inches taller than Jahlil?

[MCFinARL]

If Jahlil was measured at 6/10 3/4" in shoes and Marshall was measured at 7'1" in shoes, wouldn't we expect Marshall to appear 2 inches taller than Jahlil?

Well, geez, if you want to bring math into it...

[Kedsy]

UCONN is the only school in recent memory that has made two small quick guards work against the best competition. ... My view is that we will not see a lot of minutes with both Tyus and Quinn together. Not with Justice and other larger alternatives on the bench.

Well, first of all, you seem to be implying that making it "work against the best competition" means winning a national championship, and if that is what you mean then I vehemently disagree. Duke's 2013 team was ranked #6 in the final AP poll and made the Elite Eight -- to me that is certainly "work[ing] against the best competition," and we did it with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry as our starting guards. The Missouri team you mention was #3 in the country going into the NCAA tournament.

However, taking your assumption at face value for the moment, Tyus and Quinn are listed at 6'1 and 6'2. Without knowing how "recent" your memory goes, here are the heights of the starting guards for all national champions in this century:

2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1
2012 Kentucky: 6'2; 6'4
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1)
2010 Duke: 6'5; 6'2
2009 UNC: 5'11; 6'4
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2005 UNC: 6'1; 6'4
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2003 Syracuse: 6'2; 6'6
2002 Maryland: 6'3; 6'3
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 (at least for the last 10 games of the season; even when Duhon wasn't starting, he and J Will played a lot of minutes together)
2000 Michigan State: 6'2; 6'3

So, seven (7) of the past 15 national champions had starting backcourts as small or smaller than a Tyus/Quinn backcourt would be (and an 8th champion played a smaller backcourt for at least 20 mpg), and only five (5) of those 15 champions started even one guard as tall (or taller) as 6'4.

In other words, your assertion does not appear to be correct. Even if Tyus and Quinn don't both start (although I think it very likely that they both do), you can bet the two will play a lot of minutes together.

[duke09hms]

Well, first of all, you seem to be implying that making it "work against the best competition" means winning a national championship, and if that is what you mean then I vehemently disagree. Duke's 2013 team was ranked #6 in the final AP poll and made the Elite Eight -- to me that is certainly "work[ing] against the best competition," and we did it with Quinn Cook and Seth Curry as our starting guards. The Missouri team you mention was #3 in the country going into the NCAA tournament.

However, taking your assumption at face value for the moment, Tyus and Quinn are listed at 6'1 and 6'2. Without knowing how "recent" your memory goes, here are the heights of the starting guards for all national champions in this century:

2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1
2012 Kentucky: 6'2; 6'4
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1)
2010 Duke: 6'5; 6'2
2009 UNC: 5'11; 6'4
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2
2005 UNC: 6'1; 6'4
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2
2003 Syracuse: 6'2; 6'6
2002 Maryland: 6'3; 6'3
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 (at least for the last 10 games of the season; even when Duhon wasn't starting, he and J Will played a lot of minutes together)
2000 Michigan State: 6'2; 6'3

So, seven (7) of the past 15 national champions had starting backcourts as small or smaller than a Tyus/Quinn backcourt would be (and an 8th champion played a smaller backcourt for at least 20 mpg), and only five (5) of those 15 champions started even one guard as tall (or taller) as 6'4.

In other words, your assertion does not appear to be correct. Even if Tyus and Quinn don't both start (although I think it very likely that they both do), you can bet the two will play a lot of minutes together.

Well most of these title teams that won with small backcourts had guards who were uber-athletic in terms of speed, burst, and explosiveness. Quinn and Tyus are decent athletes for sure but not on the same level as Duhon, JWill, and some of the other guys. You can be slower if you're bigger (Scheyer), smaller if you're faster (Nolan), but you can't be smaller and slower. See Greg Paulus as an extreme example. I don't think Tyus/Quinn are at Nolan's level of athleticism, which is what I'd arbitrarily consider the necessary level to make a 2-small backcourt work.

[luvdahops]

Interesting article from SI.com:

http://www.si.com/college-basketball...-rashad-vaughn

Predictions for our frosh:

Jahlil 16.1ppg, 9.1rpg, 24% usage rate, OER of 121 in ~31.6mpg (#1 frosh nationally)

Tyus 12.3ppg, 4.9apg, 22% usage rate, OER of 117 in ~29.6mpg (#8)

Justise 10.1ppg, 4.3rpg, 20% usage rate, OER of 112 in ~25.6mpg (#13)

My expectations FWIW (which is very little):

-Slightly higher numbers for Jah (17/10) in fewer minutes (27-28)

-Less scoring (~10ppg) and more assists (6-7) for Tyus; minutes seem right

-Slightly less scoring (~8-9ppg) and more boards (5+) for Justise; minutes also seem right

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well most of these title teams that won with small backcourts had guards who were uber-athletic in terms of speed, burst, and explosiveness. Quinn and Tyus are decent athletes for sure but not on the same level as Duhon, JWill, and some of the other guys. You can be slower if you're bigger (Scheyer), smaller if you're faster (Nolan), but you can't be smaller and slower. See Greg Paulus as an extreme example. I don't think Tyus/Quinn are at Nolan's level of athleticism, which is what I'd arbitrarily consider the necessary level to make a 2-small backcourt work.

I think this definitely holds water.

Kedsy - I want to know that you think about this: on all those small team line-ups, there was a small guard who was incredible at defense or had insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense (Florida in 07 & 08):

2014 UConn: 6'1; 6'2 - Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright are both harassing defenders who would give anyone fits.
2013 Louisville: 6'0; 6'1 - Russ Smith is ridiculous...at defense
2011 UConn: 6'1; 6'4 (although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1) - Napier was that other 6'1" guy, right?
2008 Kansas: 6'1; 6'1 - Russell Robinson may be the best defensive guard on this list.
2007 Florida: 6'0; 6'2 - Green was okay at D, but that team that Brewer and Noah, two of the best defensive players in the country. Horford wasn't that bad either.
2006 Florida: 6'0; 6'2 - Green was okay at D, but that team that Brewer and Noah, two of the best defensive players in the country. Horford wasn't that bad either.
2004 UConn: 6'1; 6'2 - Taliek Brown was UConn's Duhon.
2001 Duke: 6'1; 6'2 - Duhon is a defensive specialist, especially in 2001

Quinn has never been on the level of any of these guys, and I don't think he will this year. I'm sure he'll improve, but that's going from a 5 to a 7, not the 9s and 10s that these guys are on D. Tyus is fabulous offensively, from what I've heard. However, there is either nothing written or nothing positive written about this defense. Given how recruits' skills are often embellished by the media/coaches/fans, I really don't think that Tyus is going to be the next Duhon.

I understand the Tyus/Cook backcourt on offense - and it will be potent- but it's gonna be a disaster on defense.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy - I want to know that you think about this: on all those small team line-ups, there was a small guard who was incredible at defense or had insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense (Florida in 07 & 06)

Defense is a team thing. Most national champions are good at defense (although 2009 UNC (#35, according to Pomeroy's pre-tournament numbers) and 2011 UConn (#31) were both kind of mediocre). To say that a presumably good defensive team had either a really good defensive guard or a really good defensive frontcourt, sounds to me like you're re-stating the obvious.

If the Tyus/Quinn backcourt isn't so good at defense, then obviously if we want the team to be good at defense, the good defense is going to have to come from somewhere else, or we have to have a team defensive concept that minimizes the not-so-goodness of Tyus/Quinn. Put another way, maybe when all is said and done, the frontcourt of Jahlil/Amile/Justise might be considered "insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense." Or maybe our team D will step up like it did in 2010. It's way too early to tell.

All I'm saying right now is lots of national champions (and other very successful teams) got by with small backcourts. I don't think there's any hard-and-fast rule about how they did it.

(although they ran at least 20 mpg with a backcourt of 6'1; 6'1) - Napier was that other 6'1" guy, right?

Yes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Defense is a team thing. Most national champions are good at defense (although 2009 UNC (#35, according to Pomeroy's pre-tournament numbers) and 2011 UConn (#31) were both kind of mediocre). To say that a presumably good defensive team had either a really good defensive guard or a really good defensive frontcourt, sounds to me like you're re-stating the obvious.

If the Tyus/Quinn backcourt isn't so good at defense, then obviously if we want the team to be good at defense, the good defense is going to have to come from somewhere else, or we have to have a team defensive concept that minimizes the not-so-goodness of Tyus/Quinn. Put another way, maybe when all is said and done, the frontcourt of Jahlil/Amile/Justise might be considered "insanely good teammates in the frontcourt on defense." Or maybe our team D will step up like it did in 2010. It's way too early to tell.

All I'm saying right now is lots of national champions (and other very successful teams) got by with small backcourts. I don't think there's any hard-and-fast rule about how they did it.

This is where we are in disagreement, then.

Defense is a team thing, but you have a much better foundation when you have good defensive players to begin with. These "short" backcourts partially made up for that lack of height by being solid at defense (if not great). There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah. There is no Shelden Williams. Our best defensive player is a freshman without a single NCAA game under his belt. No one is every going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak. Height doesn't have anything to do with it. It just turns out that our taller wings are better at D than our small guards.

I don't have a problem with the "short" aspect of our backcourt; I have a problem with the clear defensive liability that is our short backcourt.

[tommy]

This is where we are in disagreement, then.

Defense is a team thing, but you have a much better foundation when you have good defensive players to begin with. These "short" backcourts partially made up for that lack of height by being solid at defense (if not great). There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah. There is no Shelden Williams.

And we know that how exactly? Do we know that junior Amile Jefferson or freshmen Jahlil Okafor or Justise Winslow won't be able to do the same things defensively -- or even maybe do things differently but just as effectively -- as Ryan Kelly did? I don't think we know that at all.

Our best defensive player is a freshman without a single NCAA game under his belt.

Again, we don't know that at all. Why not? Precisely because none of the freshmen have played a single NCAA game, and we don't know how our returning players are going to have progressed defensively since last year. We don't.

No one is every going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak. Height doesn't have anything to do with it. It just turns out that our taller wings are better at D than our small guards.

I don't have a problem with the "short" aspect of our backcourt; I have a problem with the clear defensive liability that is our short backcourt.

Clear liability? Nothing is clear, because the games haven't started yet. We haven't seen these guys -- the freshmen -- at all in a Duke uniform, and we haven't seen the (hopefully) improved versions of our returning guys.

Not meaning to just pick on you flyingdutchdevil, but it's amazing to me how many definitive statements are being made on these boards about what this player or that is going to be like, in particular the freshmen. Most on this board never saw them play pre-college and of course none of them have seen them at practice or in a college game. So all these definitive statements are being based on . . . not much, if anything. Can we at least wait and see how they perform, individually and as a brand new team, against an actual opponent, before we make all of these unshakable pronouncements about what will and will not be?

[Kedsy]

There is no Ryan Kelly on this current Duke team. There is no Joakim Noah.

Who's to say Amile Jefferson can't do a decent Ryan Kelly impression on defense? Who's to say Jahlil Okafor can't provide what Joakim Noah provided on defense (good positioning; good but not great shotblocking; very strong but not elite defensive rebounding)?

These things aren't out of the realm of possibility. Certainly we can't say either way until we've seen at least a few games.

[EDIT: Tommy beat me to it, but obviously I agree with him]

No one is ever going to convince me that a line-up of Cook / Tyus / Sulaimon (or Winslow) / Amile / the Oak is better defensively than a line-up of Cook(or Tyus) / Sulaimon / Winslow / Amile / the Oak.

The original argument set forth by Saratoga2 was whether a lineup with two short guards could succeed "against the best competition." I think the obvious answer to that is such a lineup can succeed, which is not to say that our particular short backcourt absolutely will succeed this season, which I suppose is the natural extension of the argument.

Now you're shifting the argument a little more. Nobody is arguing that your first lineup above is better defensively than your second lineup. The real question is whether the first lineup represents our best lineup overall. In other words, whether the defensive superiority of the second lineup outweighs or is outweighed by the offensive superiority of the first lineup.

My impression is Coach K currently thinks the first lineup is the best overall lineup. Whether he is proven wrong and has to adjust during the season is anybody's guess at this point.

[Duvall]

Who's to say Amile Jefferson can't do a decent Ryan Kelly impression on defense? Who's to say Jahlil Okafor can't provide what Joakim Noah provided on defense (good positioning; good but not great shotblocking; very strong but not elite defensive rebounding)?

These things aren't out of the realm of possibility. Certainly we can't say either way until we've seen at least a few games.

Right - it's worth recalling that no one knew at this point two years ago that Ryan Kelly was going to do a Ryan Kelly impression on defense. There was a lot of talk about his offensive value, but his defensive value was a mid-season revelation.

The original argument set forth by Saratoga2 was whether a lineup with two short guards could succeed "against the best competition." I think the obvious answer to that is such a lineup can succeed, which is not to say that our particular short backcourt absolutely will succeed this season, which I suppose is the natural extension of the argument.

Now you're shifting the argument a little more. Nobody is arguing that your first lineup above is better defensively than your second lineup. The real question is whether the first lineup represents our best lineup overall. In other words, whether the defensive superiority of the second lineup outweighs or is outweighed by the offensive superiority of the first lineup.

My impression is Coach K currently thinks the first lineup is the best overall lineup. Whether he is proven wrong and has to adjust during the season is anybody's guess at this point.

Plus, the "best" lineup is only more important to the extent that it spends more time on the court than other lineups. If Cook, Tyus and Sulaimon all log substantial minutes, the distinction between the starting lineup and other lineups becomes less important.

[Des Esseintes]

Right - it's worth recalling that no one knew at this point two years ago that Ryan Kelly was going to do a Ryan Kelly impression on defense. There was a lot of talk about his offensive value, but his defensive value was a mid-season revelation.

Plus, the "best" lineup is only more important to the extent that it spends more time on the court than other lineups. If Cook, Tyus and Sulaimon all log substantial minutes, the distinction between the starting lineup and other lineups becomes less important.

Seriously. I remember tons of people complaining that Kelly at the four couldn't keep up with quicker ACC power forwards. That was a *constant* complaint. (It's almost as though there was something ancillary getting in the way of analyzing Ryan's D, some unimportant surface characteristic that people were failing to look past. But I'm sure I don't know what that unimportant surface characteristic might have been.) Moreover, everyone wanted to know how on Earth we would be able to cobble together a strong defense after having had such a disastrous one in 2012. Now revisionist history is (correctly) noting that Kelly was a terrific help defender and defensive QB. I am in agreement with you, Kedsy, and tommy. This team needs to get much better at defense to compete for a title. To do so, someone, probably more than a single someone, must step forward. The idea that we know right now that that cannot happen is absurd. If the team could make a jump from '12 to '13, it can make a jump from '14 to '15.

[flyingdutchdevil]

And we know that how exactly? Do we know that junior Amile Jefferson or freshmen Jahlil Okafor or Justise Winslow won't be able to do the same things defensively -- or even maybe do things differently but just as effectively -- as Ryan Kelly did? I don't think we know that at all.



Again, we don't know that at all. Why not? Precisely because none of the freshmen have played a single NCAA game, and we don't know how our returning players are going to have progressed defensively since last year. We don't.



Clear liability? Nothing is clear, because the games haven't started yet. We haven't seen these guys -- the freshmen -- at all in a Duke uniform, and we haven't seen the (hopefully) improved versions of our returning guys.

Not meaning to just pick on you flyingdutchdevil, but it's amazing to me how many definitive statements are being made on these boards about what this player or that is going to be like, in particular the freshmen. Most on this board never saw them play pre-college and of course none of them have seen them at practice or in a college game. So all these definitive statements are being based on . . . not much, if anything. Can we at least wait and see how they perform, individually and as a brand new team, against an actual opponent, before we make all of these unshakable pronouncements about what will and will not be?

Thanks for the response. A few things before I get started: a) I know that I made definitive statements when I should have put "I strongly believe" in front of them. My fault. b) Despite my negative-sounding posts for 6+ months, I am genuinely excited about the next 6 months. c) Coach K's rare post-season presser made me believe that Duke has going to focus on defense moreso than they ever have before. I thought that would create a trickle-down effect to the line-ups and playing time. Based on rumors and Coach-speak, I may have thought incorrectly. d) I think this team will be a top-10 offensive juggernaut, just like last year. I feel that the pieces are there (Okafor, Cook, Tyus, Sulaimon, Amile on the clean-up).

I base my knowledge on this upcoming season on two major sources: historical player perspective on current Duke players and analyst breakdowns on freshman. I unfortunately don't have the time to watch high school games. As much as I wish that Duke basketball was my full-time job, it's not. But I'd like to think that analyst breakdowns provide a strong understanding of that player.

Based on my experience of watching current Duke players, I assume the following:

1) Quinn Cook is not a good individual or team defender. He is good at steals, but he gambles often and is slow laterally. If he is currently a "5" on a scale of 1-10, do we expect him to jump to an "8"? I have serious reservations about that.

2) Rasheed Sulaimon was a very good defensive player his freshman year. His sophomore year wasn't as solid on that end, but something happened with sophomore Sulaimon that I cannot explain. This is the player - freshman included - that I feel most optimistic about for this season. I feel he will regain his freshman defensive form and improve on his offensive skills. Call me "President of the Rasheed Sulaimon Fan Club". But there is a strong chance that I am overly optimistic about Rasheed's D.

3) Amile Jefferson didn't have a good defensive freshman season. He played the 4, but his body was built like a skinny 2 and couldn't replace the defensive effectiveness that Ryan Kelly brought (few can). Amile's sophomore season saw him play out of place for the whole season. Amile just didn't have the bulk to compete with 5s on the defensive end. I didn't see much from Amile defensively during his freshman or sophomore year; I think he will improve, but by how much? I am not as optimistic as you on that end.

4) MP3 is big. I mean huge. He bothered 5s. I am actually very optimistic about him, but when you're bringing in the best college big since Anthony Davis (that doesn't sound that long ago, does it. Maybe Greg Oden is a better example?), how many minutes are you going to play? "MP3 minutes = 40 - As-Many-Minutes-As-Okafor-Can-Handle - A-Few-Small-Ball-Minutes-With-AJ-At-The-Five". I think MP3 can be very impactful at the 5, but his limited minutes may prevent him for showing that. Plus, Okafor's offense is probably > MP3's defense.

5) M. Jones or Semi are arguably the 8th man. One will probably make the rotation, the other probably won't. Do I know this? No. But it's a pretty established conclusion that Coach K likes short 7-8 man rotations. But I may be wrong this season. I am only going on historicals. M Jones likes to play D, but his shot couldn't hit the backside of a barn last year. Semi is as unknown as a freshman, IMO.

As for our freshman, and my thoughts based on reading a ton about their skillset:

1) Okafor: offensive beast. Amazing big. But defense? Huge question mark, with a lot of doubters: http://www.nbadraft.net/players/jahlil-okafor, http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jahlil-Okafor-6469/. Yes, these posts focus on the NBA and not college. Yes, these posts do not state that Okafor is a defensive liability but rather than he is not an insane athlete but may not be able to impact the defensive end like the offensive end. But high school recruiting has taught me one major thing: if the scouts aren't raving about you, it's probably a weakness. Fair or unfair, that is a conclusion that I've come to realize.

2) Tyus Jones is Steve Nash-esque on the offensive end: great handle, great distributor, smart scorer. But defense? If there is one negative about Jones that I've read, it's his ability to be impactful on the defense end. Again, an assumption that i'm making through scouts and high school analysts. I tend to take my information from industry experts, but if these "experts" are wrong, then market inefficiencies exist that new college grads need to take advantage of. I am going into this season expecting T Jones to be a liability on defense. Maybe not as bad as some freshman that we've had in recent history, but not good.

3) Justise Winslow is athletic. I think I can make that definitive statement, right? From what I've read, he is muscular, powerful, 6'6" (maybe 6"7"?), rebounds well for his position, quick for his size, and is known for his defense. Offensively, I'm not too sure. He scored a ton of points in high school, but so did Sean Dockery. As far as Winslow's offense goes, I could see him average 12+ ppg and shoot 55% from the floor or average 5 ppg and shoot 35% from the floor. Neither would surprise me.

4) Grayson Allen is the 9th or 10th man. Maybe 8th if he's really good. Highly athletic dude.


We were a horrific defense team last year. I am definitely not the only one to strongly believe that Jabari's departure will be addition by subtraction on the defensive end. I know Hood received Coach K's best defensive player award last year, and he had a few great games defensively (Pittsburg is the one I recall the most), but I didn't think his D has that much better. But much of our personnel from that horrific year-long defensive performance remains the same. If you think that our players improved so much in the offseason defensively that one can be Ryan Kelly-esque or that our freshman can understand Coach K's complex but magnificent defensive schemes quickly, then power to you. I can not in that camp.

I am convinced that our offense will be good (maybe even great, like last year). But I am also convinced that our defense will be a liability, and we need to mitigate that risk through hard work, listening to Coach K, and playing the right personnel. I hope I'm wrong about us being a defensive liability. I really, really, really hope I'm wrong.

[Kedsy]

Amile Jefferson didn't have a good defensive freshman season.

Amile didn't have that many opportunities to shine his freshman year, and he was usually vastly outweighed by whomever he was guarding, but he showed flashes of great defense, for example, when he put the clamps on Doug McDermott in the NCAAT. All Duke's other bigs had four fouls, and Amile guarded McDermott, and the nation's leading scorer didn't hit a single field goal during the 11 minutes Amile defended him.

Last season, despite again being outsized at the 5, I thought he was our best interior defender, which may not be saying much, but it's saying something.

Plus, despite his lack of girth, he was one of the best defensive rebounders in the conference.

Now, he's a junior and team captain, and he appears to have bulked up somewhat. He's always been vocal and he's had two years to learn Duke's D; I expect him to be a great defensive communicator/quarterback and a plus defender individually.

So you may be pleasantly surprised.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Amile didn't have that many opportunities to shine his freshman year, and he was usually vastly outweighed by whomever he was guarding, but he showed flashes of great defense, for example, when he put the clamps on Doug McDermott in the NCAAT. All Duke's other bigs had four fouls, and Amile guarded McDermott, and the nation's leading scorer didn't hit a single field goal during the 11 minutes Amile defended him.

Last season, despite again being outsized at the 5, I thought he was our best interior defender, which may not be saying much, but it's saying something.

Plus, despite his lack of girth, he was one of the best defensive rebounders in the conference.

Now, he's a junior and team captain, and he appears to have bulked up somewhat. He's always been vocal and he's had two years to learn Duke's D; I expect him to be a great defensive communicator/quarterback and a plus defender individually.

So you may be pleasantly surprised.

I hope I am. Your optimism in Amile certainly helps.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

Personally, I believe Duke will be a better TEAM overall than last season, which will inherently make the current group a stronger defensive squad; better connectivity and a stronger upperclassmen/underclassmen balance.

In my mind, Jefferson and Sulaimon are the keys to Duke's successful or unsuccessful defensive prowess this season, and I suspect that both players will be much improved by what they will not have to do this season, opposed to what they will have to do, or most importantly, what they have improved upon as individual players:

1. It is important to consider that the presence of Okafor in the paint changes the team's defense just by his very existence. The kid is a movable wall, and even if he is not a viable shot blocker, opposing teams must account for his size, and that size will permit Jefferson to do less, thus a stronger interior defense.

2. Duke did not have a defender like Winslow last year, and much like Okafor, his simple presence and most importantly, INTEREST, in playing defense will help Jefferson and Sulaimon.

3. T. Jones is not laterally quick or supremely athletic; however, defenders will have to account for him the offensive end, and they will not have the benefit of taking a breather on defense, like they could with last season's point position. When you are not pushed on both ends of the floor, it is much easier to exploit your defender if he in turn is being forced to play both ends.

4. If nothing else, T. Jones' basketball IQ is miles superior to last season's point position, and he will not spend virtually each and every game in foul trouble. The less foul trouble one experiences, the more one is able to play stronger defense in tight, close situations.

5. I suspect Plumlee 3 will be more consistent than last season, and his improved consistency gives Duke a strength off the bench that was absent last year.

6. Allen and Ojeleye are athletes, the absent guards and forwards from last season were not athletic. The simple process of being able to throw Allen's and Ojeleye's abilities at an opponent is something that will improve team defense, if for no other reason than being able to simply move laterally at a rapid pace is a step forward.

7. Last season's Duke team had an individual that was not the strongest defender, yet was the team's strongest scorer, which is a conundrum designed to lead to a great many tactical and in-game problems. Duke's likely top scorer (Okafor) will be a better defender if for no other reason than he has stronger natural ability and basketball instincts.

Disclaimer: the very mention of last year's players by name makes the mods' Laura Wingfield hearts move at a rapid pace, and send me love letters through my email, so I have to use letters as designations.

8. Duke lost five guys from last year: two were not threats to score and were minimally good defenders (call them "A" and "B"). One was occasionally a threat to score or completely absent, plus a minimally good defender (call him "C"). One was a great scorer, but... he was bad on the defensive end (call him "D"). The fifth was a good scorer, and likely both struggled to adjust to high-level competition night after night, and found himself in the awkward position of being the team's lockdown defender, yet was likely unable to ever reach the point of being the stopper, even if he were to play for Duke for two more years (call him "E").

The current squad brings in four guys, plus a great practice player that will help in preparation for opponents:

a. T. Jones is a better defender than A through D.

T. Jones is a better scorer than A,B, and C.

b. Okafor is a better defender than A through D.

Okafor is a better scorer than A,B,C, and E.

c. Winslow is a better defender than A through E.

Winslow is a better scorer than A,B, and C.

d. Allen is a better defender than B,C, and D.

Allen is a better scorer than A and B.

e. Obi is a better defender than A through D, and maybe E.

Obi is a better scorer than A through C.

UK, Arizona, UNC, Kansas, Texas, Virginia, et al. may prove to be better than Duke this season, but these simple things, the exchanging of puzzle pieces, I think will make Duke better than last year. The team may still lose to "another" Mercer in first round of the NCAA tournament, but I suspect the "new" Mercer will have to work a great deal harder to take out the Blue Devils.

If nothing else, maybe the program continues the recent streak of disappointing seasons followed by pleasant seasons:

2014: Boo.

2013: Yeah.

2012: Boo.

2011: Yeah.

[Newton_14]

I hope I am. Your optimism in Amile certainly helps.

You are also missing a fact I pointed out earlier in this thread. The guys Amile will be going up against. His first two years he was undersized and inexperienced going against bigger and experienced upperclassmen or bigger and more skilled freshman. All those guys are gone. Now Junior Amile who is bigger and experienced is going against guys his own age or underclassmen not as skilled as he is or experienced as he is. It matters. Just like it mattered with Mason. Amile will be fine defensively. Better than fine. Same thing scoring the ball. He will get more than garbage and cleanup buckets. He will score the ball on post moves and drives with crafty finishes.

[superdave]

This quote from Amile Jefferson in the N&O article gives some pretty good guidance on our defense this season: “There is a lot more teaching, and it’s a lot simpler than what we were doing last year,” junior captain Amile Jefferson said. “We have absolutes. We’re going to rebound as a team. We’re going to put pressure on the ball. These are things we are going to do each and every play. No matter what defense we’re in, no matter what we’re doing, we’re going to do those things.”

From this it sounds like we should look for Tyus, Rasheed and Quinn to be hawking the ball and overplaying passing lanes. We should also look for Amile, Marshall and Jahlil to be crashing the boards and looking to control the paint. Our depth should enable us to be aggressive in both of these aspects.

[Kedsy]

From this it sounds like we should look for Tyus, Rasheed and Quinn to be hawking the ball and overplaying passing lanes. We should also look for Amile, Marshall and Jahlil to be crashing the boards and looking to control the paint. Our depth should enable us to be aggressive in both of these aspects.

And yet it will all come down to how well we rotate on dribble-penetration and how well we react to screens, just as it does almost every season.

Coach K is apparently trying to simplify these aspects of our defense, and employ ICE on screens, which is new for Duke, so it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

[superdave]

And yet it will all come down to how well we rotate on dribble-penetration and how well we react to screens, just as it does almost every season.

Coach K is apparently trying to simplify these aspects of our defense, and employ ICE on screens, which is new for Duke, so it will be interesting to see how things unfold.

The key guys to rotate and stop dribble penetration will be Rasheed, Justise and Amile, right? What kind of confidence does that give you? Maybe we re-visit this in December. Lance, Kyle and Jon were pretty at rotating in 2010, but they really packed that defense in and Nolan was great on-the-ball.