Phase 0 - 2014-2015 MBB Season

[sagegrouse]

A bit more than "sniffed." Quinn Cook was 3rd team All-ACC in 2012-13, his sophomore year. Rasheed Sulaimon was on All-ACC freshman team in 2012-13.

Good pickup: revised now to read, "the three returning starters received no mention on All-ACC teams in 2014;"

[roywhite]

Countdown 2 Countdown - Episode 2 - Strength & Speed

7+ minute video from goduke.com

Always important, but seems to be extra emphasis on getting this team stronger.

[slower]

And the odd man out, Allen Grayson

Really? We'll give you a typo/spellcheck mulligan on this one!

[sagegrouse]

And the odd man out, Allen Grayson, has been the subject of planted stories that he could be THE key reserve.


Ain't preseason fun??

Really? We'll give you a typo/spellcheck mulligan on this one!

The problem, as some will appreciate, is that there is a truly wild and crazy Congressman, also from Florida, named Alan Grayson. His most famous quote is this: "The [opponents] have a health care plan for America: don’t get sick…. [They] have a back plan if you do get sick. If you get sick, America, [their] plan is this: die quickly."

I know "our guy's" name is Allen, not Alan, but darned if I can remember whether "Allen" or "Grayson" comes first. Well, when he becomes our "key reserve," everyone will remember "Grayson Allen."

[MChambers]

The problem, as some will appreciate, is that there is a truly wild and crazy Congressman, also from Florida, named Alan Grayson. His most famous quote is this: "The [opponents] have a health care plan for America: don’t get sick…. [They] have a back plan if you do get sick. If you get sick, America, [their] plan is this: die quickly."

I know "our guy's" name is Allen, not Alan, but darned if I can remember whether "Allen" or "Grayson" comes first. Well, when he becomes our "key reserve," everyone will remember "Grayson Allen."

I'm just glad to know it's not Alan Grayson who will be a key reserve for Duke this year.

[sagegrouse]

I'm just glad to know it's not Alan Grayson who will be a key reserve for Duke this year.

As one commenter asked, "Can our guy Grayson go well to his left, too?" We'll see.

[MChambers]

As one commenter asked, "Can our guy Grayson go well to his left, too?" We'll see.

And bounce back from tough losses, too.

[ChillinDuke]

Let's play a game: pretend you're a captain on the playground and you get to pick your team from among Duke's players, and every minute is a new game. Let's start at center: in the first minute, you take Jahlil over Marshall, then again the second minute, etc. For how many minutes would Jahlil be the pick if you're trying to win? For example's sake, let's say it's a no-brainer up to the 20th minute. At that point you have to choose between a Jahlil who's played 20 minutes, with however many fouls he accumulated, vs. a completely fresh Marshall (with no fouls), so maybe you take Marshall for that minute, maybe for a few minutes. But at some point, after Marshall has played 5 or 10 minutes, you go back to Jahlil, right? For at least another five or ten minutes, which is why on average Jahlil will probably play between 25 and 30 minutes and Marshall will probably play between 10 and 15.

The same thing happens at every position, although obviously it's not binary, because most players can play more than one position, so for example at some point you might have to choose between an Amile who's played 20 minutes, a Justise who's played 15 minutes but at a different position, and a Semi who's completely fresh. And so on.

If you play this exercise honestly, there's no way you end up with 10 players each getting 20 minutes, or anything close to that. You get the top six players getting as many minutes as they can handle without losing effectiveness, and two or three guys filling in the gaps, and the last few guys just getting table scraps. Which is what happens at Duke pretty much every season.

Being "dis-GUSTED with the end to last season," doesn't change the fact that playing the lesser players the same amount as the better players isn't the best recipe for winning (unless the non-starters are pretty much just as good as the starters, which is rarely if ever the case, and does not appear to be the case for Duke this season). Although having said that, I'm not sure I buy your premise. I haven't seen any real evidence that Coach K was any more disgusted last season than in any other season where we lost to a team we should have beaten. And despite K's promise of new wrinkles, I haven't seen any evidence that "he is likely to shake things up big-time," either.

I didn't expect the line-change thing last season, but I wasn't surprised when it stopped. I'd be shocked if it became a staple this season. Like most people, I enjoy it when everyone plays, however if I were the coach and winning was paramount, I might go a little bit deeper than Coach K does, but probably not very much.

As you yourself stated above, none of this is binary. The question (and answer) that we pose should not be whether Coach K will or won't play 7-8 players. It should be to what extent. At least that's how I see it. While I'm still squarely on the Kedsy side of the spectrum re: to what extent, I don't think Sage is off the reservation to hypothesize a scenario (and the reasons for it) in which this season may look different.

Said differently, I think that the sequence of events leading up to this season give us considerably more and considerably stronger reasons to ponder a change in philosophy. Do I think that means a change will be clearly evident? No, I don't. But I do think the playing time conversation (who starts, etc) has significantly more ambiguity heading into this season than it has in my time on this board (~ 6 years). Even if it's 70% likely that K goes 7-8 deep this year, that's a hefty discount from where I would have pegged that likelihood at any point in the last half decade (at the very least).

One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.

$0.02 (tab: $14.42)

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.

You may be right, I'm not sure. And I haven't watched many season-ending press conferences. But I do seem to recall several "soul searching" interviews/press conferences after seasons that didn't end the way we wanted them to. Most that I remember took place over the summer, or the start of the next school year, in essence talking about how the new team was going to be different rather than about the previous team's failings. So maybe that's a difference, or maybe this time he was merely trying to light the fire under Quinn and the other upperclassmen earlier rather than later.

All that said, I still don't get the vibe that he's doing anything or planning on changing anything out of "disgust." I do get the vibe that he's trying to plant an urgency with all the players and re-create an atmosphere where everyone, players and coaches alike, apply intensity to every single moment, both on the court and off. Whether that mindset alters the way he plays his rotation, we'll have to wait and see. Personally, I doubt it, or at least I doubt it'll happen in any way that is (as you say) clearly evident to us fans.

[Saratoga2]

As you yourself stated above, none of this is binary. The question (and answer) that we pose should not be whether Coach K will or won't play 7-8 players. It should be to what extent. At least that's how I see it. While I'm still squarely on the Kedsy side of the spectrum re: to what extent, I don't think Sage is off the reservation to hypothesize a scenario (and the reasons for it) in which this season may look different.

Said differently, I think that the sequence of events leading up to this season give us considerably more and considerably stronger reasons to ponder a change in philosophy. Do I think that means a change will be clearly evident? No, I don't. But I do think the playing time conversation (who starts, etc) has significantly more ambiguity heading into this season than it has in my time on this board (~ 6 years). Even if it's 70% likely that K goes 7-8 deep this year, that's a hefty discount from where I would have pegged that likelihood at any point in the last half decade (at the very least).

One other side note, in response to your not seeing any real evidence that K was more disgusted after last season, I don't recall a post-season presser in which K was so transparently blaming himself and admitting to shortcomings of the team/season. Now admittedly, I don't recall any other post-season pressers at the moment (nor do I recall what I had for breakfast). But it certainly does not seem in keeping with K's personality to say things like we lacked leadership - so clearly calling out the team (perhaps even Quinn). While I don't have time to go back and watch the presser, that context and tone resonates in my memory as someone who would strongly reevaluate all aspects of the program and the way things are being done.

$0.02 (tab: $14.42)

- Chillin

Another approach is to ask how many minutes the starters are likey to get per game and then postulate who the 6th, 7th wnr 8th men will be.

If the starters are as posulated by some as:

1. Quinn Cook 32 min
2. Rasheed Sulaimon 30 min
3. Jahlil Okafor 25 min
4. Amile Jefferson 28 min
5. Justise Winslow 28 min

That leaves a pathway to postulate who is like to get the remaining minutes

6. Tyus Jones 22 min
7. Marshall Plumlee 12 min
8. Semi Ojeleye 8 min
9. Matt Jones 8 min
10. Grayson Allen 4 min
11. Rest 3 min

There are all sorts of arguments you can make about PT and even who the starters should and will be. I believe the numbers are supportable for the following reasons:

Okafor is a freshman big man is unlikely to get much more than 25 min/g despite his obvious skills.
Plumee is still a back up player and will get time because of his size and not his skill
Cook is a solid point guard and will lead the team in time because of it.
Tyus Jones is a gifted PG and will get solid time as he gets accustomed to college play. Having two smallish PGs on the floor together may hurt the defense.
Sulaimon has progressed and is an experienced player with good length who should be a mainstay. He could get more time except for the fact there are reasonable backups.
Matt Jones and Allen should be able to get some of the time when Sulaimon is off court although Tyus will get some of that as well.
Jefferson is a solid player and is expected to be recovered from surgery and should get starters minutes. Ojeleye and Winslow are reasonable backups for him
Winslow at small forward is my pencil in even though unproven. Ojeleye, Matt Jones and even Allen may get some time.

Obi can't play but should be benficial to Okafor as he learns to play against powerful big men in practice.

[sagegrouse]

Another approach is to ask how many minutes the starters are likey to get per game and then postulate who the 6th, 7th wnr 8th men will be.

If the starters are as posulated by some as:

1. Quinn Cook 32 min
2. Rasheed Sulaimon 30 min
3. Jahlil Okafor 25 min
4. Amile Jefferson 28 min
5. Justise Winslow 28 min

That leaves a pathway to postulate who is like to get the remaining minutes

6. Tyus Jones 22 min
7. Marshall Plumlee 12 min
8. Semi Ojeleye 8 min
9. Matt Jones 8 min
10. Grayson Allen 4 min
11. Rest 3 min

There are all sorts of arguments you can make about PT and even who the starters should and will be. I believe the numbers are supportable for the following reasons:

Okafor is a freshman big man is unlikely to get much more than 25 min/g despite his obvious skills.
Plumee is still a back up player and will get time because of his size and not his skill
Cook is a solid point guard and will lead the team in time because of it.
Tyus Jones is a gifted PG and will get solid time as he gets accustomed to college play. Having two smallish PGs on the floor together may hurt the defense.
Sulaimon has progressed and is an experienced player with good length who should be a mainstay. He could get more time except for the fact there are reasonable backups.
Matt Jones and Allen should be able to get some of the time when Sulaimon is off court although Tyus will get some of that as well.
Jefferson is a solid player and is expected to be recovered from surgery and should get starters minutes. Ojeleye and Winslow are reasonable backups for him
Winslow at small forward is my pencil in even though unproven. Ojeleye, Matt Jones and even Allen may get some time.

Obi can't play but should be benficial to Okafor as he learns to play against powerful big men in practice.

In addition to my "contrarian" prediction above, I tend to resist the "allocation of minutes" approach because I don't know what it means. Is this the allocation on the first of February? The beginning of the ACC tournament? The Coaches vs. Cancer tournament? Surely the rotation, even if horribly constricted to seven-eight players, will evolve over the course of the season, thereby spreading the wealth of playing time across the roster. (And I recognize that you do have minutes for ten players, which is more than conventional wisdom would dictate for Duke playing time.) And, of course, there wil inevitably be guys who miss games due to illness or injury, meaning that the average MPG will be greater than 200.

I take issue with what you say about MP3, because "running the court" is definitely a skill for a seven-footer. The other thing is, even if I am not on my revanchist mission, neither Jahlil, Tyus or Justise will understand Duke defense when the season starts and, at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule. Of course, there is a first time for everything, but I have been watching Duke hoops basically forever.

[Kedsy]

6. Tyus Jones 22 min

I think your analysis is reasonable, except the coaching staff has already pretty much announced that Tyus will start, despite the potential defensive issues of Tyus playing in a small backcourt with Quinn. As such, your minutes for Tyus are probably low.

11. Rest 3 min

Also, as talented as our 10 scholarship players are, the walkons should only see time in the last minute or so of blowouts. I'll be very surprised if they log even close to 3mpg that could go to, e.g., Matt, Semi, Grayson.

[Kedsy]

The other thing is, even if I am not on my revanchist mission, neither Jahlil, Tyus or Justise will understand Duke defense when the season starts and, at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule. Of course, there is a first time for everything, but I have been watching Duke hoops basically forever.

There have been freshmen who got Duke defense from Day 1, and were much better than OK by the middle of the ACC schedule (G Hill, Battier, Amaker, Duhon come to mind; I could probably come up with more if I had to). If some subset of this year's freshmen get it, it wouldn't be close to a first time.

[BD80]

... Also, as talented as our 10 scholarship players are, the walkons should only see time in the last minute or so of blowouts. I'll be very surprised if they log even close to 3mpg that could go to, e.g., Matt, Semi, Grayson.

There's the rub ...

If three walkons play in 2 blow out games, getting 1 minute each in each of the 2 games and then get 40 DNPCDs. Don't each of them average 1 mpg for the season?

Thus our team could cumulatively average More than 200 mpg.

And our whole solar system could be, like one tiny atom in the fingernail of some giant being

[MChambers]

There have been freshmen who got Duke defense from Day 1, and were much better than OK by the middle of the ACC schedule (G Hill, Battier, Amaker, Duhon come to mind; I could probably come up with more if I had to). If some subset of this year's freshmen get it, it wouldn't be close to a first time.

I think Brand got it from day one. Billy King definitely did. Singler was pretty darned good, even (arguably) out of position as a freshman.

[Kedsy]

There's the rub ...

If three walkons play in 2 blow out games, getting 1 minute each in each of the 2 games and then get 40 DNPCDs. Don't each of them average 1 mpg for the season?

Thus our team could cumulatively average More than 200 mpg.

And our whole solar system could be, like one tiny atom in the fingernail of some giant being

Well, if you count DNPs as 0 minutes, then this problem goes away. Maybe not the fingernail issue, but the rest of it for sure.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think Brand got it from day one. Billy King definitely did. Singler was pretty darned good, even (arguably) out of position as a freshman.

Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.

Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.

[Kedsy]

Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.

Well, except Jabari and Greg simply weren't very good defenders. Not sure it had to do with their being freshmen. The original assertions being discussed involved whether any freshman could "understand Duke defense when the season starts" and whether freshmen, "at best, may be OK by the middle of the ACC schedule," and the suggestion that if our current freshmen exceeded those defensive expectations it would be a "first time."

[COYS]

Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.

Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.

I would throw Jon Scheyer into the batch of freshman defensive performers. 2007 was a tough year for the team, but the defense was really good and Jon played a bigger role in that than people remember. Actually, Jon's off the ball defense was really impressive for his whole career.

[MChambers]

Elliot Williams, McRoberts, Daniel Ewing, and Deng are more modern examples and competent as freshman defenders.

Of course, for every Amaker or Duhon you get a Jabari and a Paulus.

Not more modern than Singler! Or only Williams so qualifies.