MBB: Pre-season 2014-15 Thread

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I'm also certain many will speculate that Obi may actually be as good as Okafor based on his appearance in street clothes and someone's cousin's mother's sister's husband heard he dominated in a practice.

I once saw a photo of a seated Obi that was clearly the basis for Zeus "Jupiter" housed at Hermitage Museum. Unfortunately, I have also been privy to inside information that Rasheed was once seated in such a way that he was mistaken for Ardipithecus ramidus.

[Newton_14]

One thing is ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN. No question, rock solid, as sure as the nose on your face.

Sean Obi will look like a first team all-American in pick up games.

What ever happened to our summer pick up game reports? How can we predict the rotation without such pertinent information?

And early in the season, Jeff Goodman will pen an article, stating unequivocally that Sean Obi was the best player on the floor at a practice he recently attended.

[mgtr]

I know people hate this, but I feel that the minute distribution will be as follows:

-Rasheed (35 min)
-Amile (32 min)
-Quinn (30 min)
-Okafor (25 min)
-Justise (25 min)
-Tyus (22 min)
-MP3 (15 min)
-8th-10th men (~15 min)

FDD, I agree with your views, but I doubt that three freshmen play 72 minutes. We will have to wait and see how the season progresses.

[roywhite]

-Rasheed (35 min)
-Amile (32 min)
-Quinn (30 min)
-Okafor (25 min)
-Justise (25 min)
-Tyus (22 min)
-MP3 (15 min)
-8th-10th men (~15 min)

FDD, I agree with your views, but I doubt that three freshmen play 72 minutes. We will have to wait and see how the season progresses.

Actually, I think I'll take the "over" on those 3 freshmen playing 72 minutes per game. I see Okafor and Tyus Jones playing more than the numbers FDD predicts.

Another betting line could be how many threads or how many posts we devote to minutes breakdown.

[UrinalCake]

I looked back at elite freshmen recruits under Coach K who played the 4 or 5. Here are their minutes per game as freshmen and RSCI rankings

I would also include Kyle Singler at 28.6 MPG as a freshman, much of which was spent at the 5. I think Okafor plays closer to 25MPG than 30. 30 is a lot for a freshman. Which leaves 15 minutes for Plumlee. I do think Amile will play a handful of minutes at the 5, mostly in late-game situations or when Okafor is out and opponents try to go small against us.

[Kedsy]

Yep. I don't think we can keep Marshall on the bench for 30 minutes a game, and I expect Jahlil to play 30 MPG. Marshall on the floor may give Jahlil a break on defending the post

Well, as Superdave pointed out in an earlier post, it would be historically unusual for a freshman big man to play 30 mpg for Coach K. And if Jahlil played 25, that would leave 15 for Marshall, which seems a perfectly adequate number. But no matter how many minutes Jahlil plays, I don't think Jahlil and Marshall on the floor together makes much sense. On offense, neither of them would seem to have range outside of a few feet, so they'd clog up the middle and get in each other's way. On defense, neither seems particularly well equipped to defend smaller, quicker PFs. Obviously, we haven't seen Jahlil play yet, but for something like the ability to play PF, I think we have to assume it's not going to happen until he proves otherwise.

Versus the seven-man rotation and eight-man rotation argument, I mean holy cow! Who says we have the same rotation for 35 games (I'm hoping for 40)?

When people talk about the rotation, I think they generally mean either the rotation at the beginning of the season or the rotation at the end of the season. At Duke in Coach K's time, no matter who is the 7th guy and who is the 8th guy, they never play as much as 20 mpg. And there's almost no chance at all that both our 7th and 8th man play 20+ mpg (or at any rate it's never even come close to happening in the past).

Moreover, I very seriously doubt that we have 90 MPG per game for freshman players -- at Duke?

In 1999-2000, freshmen at Duke logged 93.6 mpg. In 1983, freshmen at Duke logged a whopping 123.4 mpg. So I think it depends upon the composition of the team and on the freshmen.

Having said that, I agree our freshmen probably won't average 90 mpg this season. But I wouldn't be at all surprised at 85 or even a little more.

I think there's more mystery to the rotation than what you've been saying in this thread. If I'm reading your posts right, you think you know whom Duke's starters, 6th man, and 7th and 8th men will be. Your predictions for those roles are solid predictions, don't get me wrong, but I would definitely take the field of all other possible permutations over any single permutation. There will be some surprises with Duke's rotation when all is said and done. That's my prediction.

Again, I don't think I (or anybody else) is saying there won't be variability in the rotation over the course of the season, but when people talk about what the rotation will be, they're generally talking either about the beginning or the end of the season. Over the summer, I performed a study of Coach K's rotation, as a combination of recruiting ranking and experience. Applying the formula from that study to 2014-2015, the formula strongly suggests that the first 6 guys in Duke's rotation will be: Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Jahlil. Perhaps not quite as strongly, the formula predicts Marshall as the 7th guy, and either Matt or Semi as 8th guy, a little more likely Matt than Semi.

So, based on my research and also on what seems to make the most sense, it's possible that Semi might beat out Matt for 8th man/5th perimeter player, though more likely he doesn't. I suppose it's also possible that Semi beats out Marshall for the 3rd interior player but, again, much more likely that he doesn't. But absent a major injury or a complete meltdown on the part of one of our top players, I am very confident that the top 6 will be Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, and Jahlil. I am somewhat confident that Marshall and Matt will start the season as our 7th and 8th man. If Semi beats one of them out by the end of the season, I'll be mildly surprised but not shocked. If Marshall, Matt, Semi, or Grayson jump into the top 6 for more than a game or two, I'll be very, very surprised.

To sum up, putting aside aberrations for a game or two, if we're talking about either the beginning of the regular season or the end of the season, I disagree with you. While of course it's not 100% certain, barring a major injury, I would take the prediction of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, Jahlil as top six (not necessarily in that order) and Marshall and Matt as the next two (again, not sure of the order) over the field of all other possible permutations.

[Indoor66]

I'm also certain many will speculate that Obi may actually be as good as Okafor based on his appearance in street clothes and someone's cousin's mother's sister's husband heard he dominated in a practice.

Also, check out his guns and leaping ability!

[flyingdutchdevil]

I would also include Kyle Singler at 28.6 MPG as a freshman, much of which was spent at the 5. I think Okafor plays closer to 25MPG than 30. 30 is a lot for a freshman. Which leaves 15 minutes for Plumlee. I do think Amile will play a handful of minutes at the 5, mostly in late-game situations or when Okafor is out and opponents try to go small against us.

Singler was in a unique situation. He was the only qualified player to play 2 spots out of his natural "3" position. We had Zoubek, but he was injured a lot and didn't really become a value-add player until his senior year.

This year, we have MP3, who is in his fourth year in the program. I highly suspect that he's very close to putting it all together. Regardless, Okafor won't have Kyle's pressure variables, given the good back up.

Lastly, I disagree with you on Amile. Amile can play the 5 to some extent (proved it last year and he put on even more weight), but a) he's a natural 4, b) there is a log-jam at the 5, and c) there is very little back-up at the 4. Names like Winslow (a very short 4) and Semi (has he improved?) have come up, but I'm not as sold. I think Amile is going to play 95% of his minutes at the 4, even if we decide to go small (and Amile is very mobile for a big man. He's like Lance Thomas with better rebounding and scoring and not as great D).

[MCFinARL]

Actually, I think I'll take the "over" on those 3 freshmen playing 72 minutes per game. I see Okafor and Tyus Jones playing more than the numbers FDD predicts.

Another betting line could be how many threads or how many posts we devote to minutes breakdown.

I'll take the "over" on that line no matter where it starts!

[Troublemaker]

To sum up, putting aside aberrations for a game or two, if we're talking about either the beginning of the regular season or the end of the season, I disagree with you. While of course it's not 100% certain, barring a major injury, I would take the prediction of Tyus, Quinn, Rasheed, Justise, Amile, Jahlil as top six (not necessarily in that order) and Marshall and Matt as the next two (again, not sure of the order) over the field of all other possible permutations.

Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

[superdave]

Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

Anyone want to bet we go to the platoon system for a couple of games again? Coach K needs to give us something to over-analyze, right?

I think I may have made the same argument for a couple of seasons in a row now - But platooning is great for keeping the energy level up and defining a role for the 8/9/10 guys in the rotation. It would enable the team to run a little more than normal too.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Anyone want to bet we go to the platoon system for a couple of games again? Coach K needs to give us something to over-analyze, right?

I think I may have made the same argument for a couple of seasons in a row now - But platooning is great for keeping the energy level up and defining a role for the 8/9/10 guys in the rotation. It would enable the team to run a little more than normal too.

Sure, I'll bet against you.

I am 100% aligned with Kedsy: the 6 man core rotation is set for ACC play. The 7th man will be MP3, who's minutes will = (40 - Okafor). The 8th man - if he exists - will most likely be Matt Jones, because he can play the 2 and the 3 (I am also assuming he finds his shot). Semi will be used to go big if Amile is in foul trouble, but Amile will rarely be in foul trouble (another assumption on my end. I think Amile and Rasheed are set for break out years).

Last year, I didn't know what to expect, with a lack of a true 5, plenty of new players, and shaky seniors. This year, we have a true 5 (two who should be ready), plenty of new players that fill in needs (big man, Swiss Army knife), and upperclassmen who will be core members of the rotation (Quinn, Sulaimon, Jefferson). He have other questions as well, like our D, our 3pt shooting, and off-court/on-court leadership, but these don't make me as uncertain of our line up.

[Kedsy]

Thanks for that link to your lineup research! It's a very impressive model you created.

That said, for this season, I'll still bet on the field of all other possible rotation permutations, and yes, I mean the rotation at the beginning or end of the season. Call it my stubborn gut instinct vs. Kedsy's model. Your projected players 7 thru 10 on this year's roster are so talented that something surprising will come from that. I'd estimate you only have a 10% chance of hitting both the 6-man core and the 7th and 8th men projected. And I even feel the 6-man core is only a 50/50 proposition. (Maybe it's my butt instinct actually, because that's where those estimates were pulled from.) When Grayson Allen starts against Presbyterian in a few weeks, my gut (or butt) will stand victorious over your model and bask in its lamentations. For this season anyway.

Obviously, we shall see. If Grayson starts, I'll be happy to bow down to your gut (probably not to your butt, though ) and proclaim I'm not worthy. There have been a few exceptions over the years (though so far, over 15 seasons, the model has hit 100% of the time on the top 6, so I think the odds are way better than 10%).

I agree with you that our 7-through-10 are extremely talented and could probably start on most teams in the country, but the depth isn't unprecedented at Duke. In the past 16 years (including this season), this will be the 5th time we've had four players outside the top 6 that had a "rating" of 3.0 or better (using the rating system from my earlier post, linked upthread):

RATING OF DUKE PLAYERS 7 THROUGH 10

2009: 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.5
2008: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 3.0
2015: 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 3.0
2003: 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0
2014: 2.5, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0

In 2008, 2009, and 2014, we employed an 8-man rotation (as the model predicted and as I suspect we will this season), but in *none* of those other deep seasons did someone who the model predicted to fall outside the rotation break their way into it. Doesn't mean it can't happen this season, but I'd say the odds are in my prediction's favor.

[BD80]

... I agree with you that our 7-through-10 are extremely talented and could probably start on most teams in the country, ...

Fageddabahddit ... Based on practice, Obi could be starting for the Hornets this year!

[Philadukie]

IMO, the rotation that will eat as many minutes as possible will be 7 players: Quinn, Tyus, Sulaimon, Justise, Amile, Okafor, and MP3. It's the 8th-man and non-existent 9th-man that is up for debate.

Yep, this is right. I'd expect the starting five to be Tyus, Quinn, Sheed, Amile, and Jah, with Winslow subbing at the 3-4 and Marshall subbing at the 4 and 5. Many folks seem to think that Marshall is strictly a back up at the 5, but he will be on he floor with Jahlil too, as back-up to Amile, with Winslow sliding there occasionally. I suspect once ACC play starts, we will not see Semi there at all.

The question is the 8th man. I agree that it will probably be Matt for about 8 to 10 mins/game. His defense will get him on the floor before others.

I don't see the others playing much at all. Don't ignore history, regardless of pre-season perceptions or predictions of depth. K likes to play 7, with an occasional 8th man getting no more than 10 mins. Others can (and have already) show the number of times that more than 8 (or just even 8) players have gotten more than 10 mins per game. It ain't much.

[MChambers]

Yep, this is right. I'd expect the starting five to be Tyus, Quinn, Sheed, Amile, and Jah, with Winslow subbing at the 3-4 and Marshall subbing at the 4 and 5. Many folks seem to think that Marshall is strictly a back up at the 5, but he will be on he floor with Jahlil too, as back-up to Amile, with Winslow sliding there occasionally. I suspect once ACC play starts, we will not see Semi there at all.

The question is the 8th man. I agree that it will probably be Matt for about 8 to 10 mins/game. His defense will get him on the floor before others.

I don't see the others playing much at all. Don't ignore history, regardless of pre-season perceptions or predictions of depth. K likes to play 7, with an occasional 8th man getting no more than 10 mins. Others can (and have already) show the number of times that more than 8 (or just even 8) players have gotten more than 10 mins per game. It ain't much.

I just can't see Marshall and Jahlil on the floor together, or at least I don't think you'd be able to see the lane with both of them in there.

I think Kedsy raises a very interesting point about Duke's offense having been 4 out 1 in for many years. It's going to be very interesting to see how Duke runs its half court offense this year. Could have a big influence playing time.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I just can't see Marshall and Jahlil on the floor together, or at least I don't think you'd be able to see the lane with both of them in there.

I think Kedsy raises a very interesting point about Duke's offense having been 4 out 1 in for many years. It's going to be very interesting to see how Duke runs its half court offense this year. Could have a big influence playing time.

Our most recent championship - 2010 - definitely didn't have 4 out 1 in. LT was a defensive specialist, a leader, and an opportunist when given the change. He is not a jump shooter at all, despite attempting a few jump shots per game with shaky results.

I agree that MP3 and Jahlil together spells trouble, but Amile, who also doesn't have a jump shot, is a perfect compliment as an opportunistic scorer with sick rebounding abilities.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I don't know if it's already been posted, but dukeblueplanet posted a pic of Quinn and Amile on Instagram, saying that coach K officially named those 2 captains for 2014-15! Congrats to them!

[Kedsy]

I don't know if it's already been posted, but dukeblueplanet posted a pic of Quinn and Amile on Instagram, saying that coach K officially named those 2 captains for 2014-15! Congrats to them!

It's on twitter now, too.

[MChambers]

Our most recent championship - 2010 - definitely didn't have 4 out 1 in. LT was a defensive specialist, a leader, and an opportunist when given the change. He is not a jump shooter at all, despite attempting a few jump shots per game with shaky results.

I agree that MP3 and Jahlil together spells trouble, but Amile, who also doesn't have a jump shot, is a perfect compliment as an opportunistic scorer with sick rebounding abilities.

That's true. Of course, Okafor will be a low post scorer, which Duke didn't have in 2010, so the offense will be different. Or do you think he'll just set screens? :-)