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  1. #4261
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    [/B]

    This is a great point. Miles and Mason really did play pretty limited minutes, and Kelly essentially didn't play. We didn't really play Singler at the 4 at all that year either. We ran Zoubs and Lance out there and then put Plumlees for 3-4 minute spurts to give the big fellas some rest.

    This is a really good point for wondering how K uses those minutes.
    Well, sort of. The 2010 season, as Kedsy notes, is an anomaly in many ways. But one way is that - even among the frontcourt guys - the minutes got jumbled up. For the first 1/2 to 2/3 of the season, a clear rotation wasn't established. Thomas was a near constant at the 4 (39 starts to Mason's 1), but we couldn't quite figure out who the starting 5 was. For much of the early part of the season, Miles was the starter. But he just didn't play well enough to hold down the job. So, eventually, Zoubek got the gig. And starting with the infamous Maryland game he established himself as the starter at the 5 and wound up starting them all down the stretch (ending up with 16 starts to Miles' 24).

  2. #4262
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, sort of. The 2010 season, as Kedsy notes, is an anomaly in many ways. But one way is that - even among the frontcourt guys - the minutes got jumbled up. For the first 1/2 to 2/3 of the season, a clear rotation wasn't established. Thomas was a near constant at the 4 (39 starts to Mason's 1), but we couldn't quite figure out who the starting 5 was. For much of the early part of the season, Miles was the starter. But he just didn't play well enough to hold down the job. So, eventually, Zoubek got the gig. And starting with the infamous Maryland game he established himself as the starter at the 5 and wound up starting them all down the stretch (ending up with 16 starts to Miles' 24).
    Gee! The "minutes got jumbled up;" all the big guys got to play and contribute for considerable minutes. We won the regular ACC season at 13-3 (tiebreaker over UMd) and won the ACC tournament -- then we went on to win the National Championship. Let's hear it for "jumbled minutes" in the front court for 2018!
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  3. #4263
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Gee! The "minutes got jumbled up;" all the big guys got to play and contribute for considerable minutes. We won the regular ACC season at 13-3 (tiebreaker over UMd) and won the ACC tournament -- then we went on to win the National Championship. Let's hear it for "jumbled minutes" in the front court for 2018!
    Let's not confuse minutes discussions with outcomes. If we do, someone's favorite is probably going to be shorted.

  4. #4264
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Gee! The "minutes got jumbled up;" all the big guys got to play and contribute for considerable minutes. We won the regular ACC season at 13-3 (tiebreaker over UMd) and won the ACC tournament -- then we went on to win the National Championship. Let's hear it for "jumbled minutes" in the front court for 2018!
    I certainly wasn't complaining about how the 2010 season played out. But I don't think it holds much predictive power for this season if we get Bagley. Other than maybe the result of the final game.

  5. #4265
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    RE: 2010

    Duke started sophomore Miles Plumlee and senior Lance Thomas early, with senior Brian Zoubek and freshman Mason Plumlee coming off the bench.

    Thomas wrenched a knee against Carolina and was doubtful for the next game, against Maryland.

    K did not want to start a sophomore and a freshman at the 4/5 so he inserted Zoubek into the starting spot during practice.

    It turned out that Thomas was able to go against the Terps. But Zoubek played so well as the starter in practice, that K stuck with the Zoubek/Thomas lineup.

    Zoubek had a career game against Maryland, so K stuck with that lineup.

    It turned out well.

  6. #4266
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    I really don't know what to think of this situation.

    On the one hand you have a transformative talent that could have a major impact on next season.

    On the other hand you have a young team that is already on campus, trying to learn about each other, and develop some chemistry.

    When and where do we draw the line on this stuff? If Bagley were in the fold, say, 3 months ago and a transfer was announced and the team was fully on campus now, I think I'd be leaning toward approval. But at this stage in the game, it's not like the season starts tmrw, but the wheels have also begun turning.

    In the spectrum of "Bagley Approval", 0-100% approval, as a microcosm of the OAD vs Team Development tug-of-war we've been struggling with as a community this offseason, I think I find myself at a 45%. Meaning I'm still very close to on the fence but would rather pass on Bagley if I were calling the shots.

    Blasphemy to some, perhaps. But you have to draw the line somewhere, IMO. We're darn close to that line.

    - Chillin
    I respect your opinion but I just can't subscribe to this theory. Marvin Bagley is perhaps the best college prospect since Kevin Durant and Greg Oden back in the mid 2000s and you wouldn't want him on the roster due to potential chemistry/long term development concerns???

    If Coach K is half the coach we think he is, he"ll find a way to integrate Bagley onto this Duke squad even if he can't join the team on the Dominican Republic trip. K is a HOFer and gets paid millions to do exactly this.

    You can't worry about the future and pass up on perhaps a generational type talent when winning a national championship is so hard to begin with. Javin seems like a good kid but I would pass up on 4 years of him for 1 year of Bagley. We can recruit other Javin like players in the following HS classes like Emmitt Williams but Duke would be hard-pressed to land another Bagley type player again.

  7. #4267
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    I respect your opinion but I just can't subscribe to this theory. Marvin Bagley is perhaps the best college prospect since Kevin Durant and Greg Oden back in the mid 2000s and you wouldn't want him on the roster due to potential chemistry/long term development concerns???

    If Coach K is half the coach we think he is, he"ll find a way to integrate Bagley onto this Duke squad even if he can't join the team on the Dominican Republic trip. K is a HOFer and gets paid millions to do exactly this.

    You can't worry about the future and pass up on perhaps a generational type talent when winning a national championship is so hard to begin with. Javin seems like a good kid but I would pass up on 4 years of him for 1 year of Bagley. We can recruit other Javin like players in the following HS classes like Emmitt Williams but Duke would be hard-pressed to land another Bagley type player again.
    Agree - Bagley would be a coup, whether this year or next year. But, if he does reclassify, why wouldn't he join the team on the DR trip? If he reclassifies, I would imagine he'd need to do so before mid-August...
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  8. #4268
    Quote Originally Posted by gam7 View Post
    Agree - Bagley would be a coup, whether this year or next year. But, if he does reclassify, why wouldn't he join the team on the DR trip? If he reclassifies, I would imagine he'd need to do so before mid-August...
    Didn't Summer Session II start already for Duke students? Can he still join the team on the trip if he can't be academically enrolled in classes till the Fall?

    Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than me can answer these questions.

  9. #4269
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Lincoln Ne
    You always want the talent and try and figure it out as you go.

  10. #4270
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    Didn't Summer Session II start already for Duke students? Can he still join the team on the trip if he can't be academically enrolled in classes till the Fall?

    Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than me can answer these questions.
    Yes. One of our stalwarts writing above found NCAA language to the effect that, to qualify for summer trip, the incoming freshmen needed to be fully admitted to the school and all paperwork completed. He did not need to be currently enrolled.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  11. #4271
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeTrinity11 View Post
    I respect your opinion but I just can't subscribe to this theory. Marvin Bagley is perhaps the best college prospect since Kevin Durant and Greg Oden back in the mid 2000s and you wouldn't want him on the roster due to potential chemistry/long term development concerns???

    If Coach K is half the coach we think he is, he"ll find a way to integrate Bagley onto this Duke squad even if he can't join the team on the Dominican Republic trip. K is a HOFer and gets paid millions to do exactly this.

    You can't worry about the future and pass up on perhaps a generational type talent when winning a national championship is so hard to begin with. Javin seems like a good kid but I would pass up on 4 years of him for 1 year of Bagley. We can recruit other Javin like players in the following HS classes like Emmitt Williams but Duke would be hard-pressed to land another Bagley type player again.
    Ah, yes, the best college prospect since Kevin Durant. Wait, wait. According to who? Because Biancardi said that was Wiggins, no?

    Bagley isn't the best college prospect since LeBron is he? Because I thought that honor went to Jabari. Actually no, it went to Shabazz Muhammad. Or wait, it now belongs to Michael Porter.

    The point is, I don't disagree (in and of itself) with the concept: don't sacrifice a more certain present for a more uncertain future. But to say Marvin Bagley is the best college prospect since _______ is just so overused and frankly often doesn't work out. You never know exactly how good these guys are. Harry Giles was the next Chris Webber. Until he wasn't. For whatever reason, injury in this case. It doesn't matter.

    The counterpoint is don't sacrifice a more certain bird (or birds) in hand for uncertain birds in the bush.

    - Chillin

  12. #4272
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post

    The counterpoint is don't sacrifice a more certain bird (or birds) in hand for uncertain birds in the bush.

    - Chillin
    But your counterpoint runs counter to all that is holy on DBR.

  13. #4273
    It sounds like if Bagley comes to Duke his father may be a problem:
    ... As the first free throw swished through the net, Bagley’s father, Marvin Jr., walked past halfcourt. The Phamily is his team — he’s listed as the director and head coach, though he doesn’t sit on the bench. Instead, Marvin Jr. sits in the stands, where he yells out substitutions and videotapes everything. He’s emotional on the sidelines, kicking the bleachers earlier in this game when a call didn’t go his way. He wanted this first win of the season as badly as anyone.

    While the Houston Hoops player released his second free throw, Marvin Jr. let out a noise that sounded like a bird call. He was trying to distract the teenager at the line shooting the free throw. Coach K took notice. You could tell by his cringe. ...

    Marvin Bagley III was a star from the moment he started playing for Corona del Sol High School in Tempe, Ariz. He averaged 19.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per game as a freshman and led the program to its fourth straight state championship.

    Five months after that, he was gone.

    Bagley’s father accepted an assistant coaching job at Hillcrest Academy, a startup program that would play a national basketball schedule while players attended school at nearby Starshine Academy in Phoenix. Marvin and his younger brother Marcus transferred in. DeAndre Ayton, a top-two recruit in the class of 2017, joined them.

    Just a few short months later, the Bagleys were gone again.

    The NCAA questioned the courses the players were taking at Starshine Academy and Hillcrest, which was not a part of a state athletic association, couldn’t be nationally ranked. When ESPN pulled a Hillcrest game against Thon Maker and Athlete Institute in Canada from its airwaves in November of 2015, the Bagleys bounced later that month.

    The Bagleys packed their bags for California and enrolled in Sierra Canyon High School, the same swanky private school that Kendall and Kylie Jenner and Will Smith’s daughter Willow attended.

    When the Bagleys arrived, the California Interscholastic Federation ruled him ineligible for the season because of a rule that bans out-of-state transfers that are “athletically motivated.” Marvin Bagley III had changed schools three times in two states in less than six months and still wasn’t allowed to play basketball as a sophomore. ...

    There’s another oddity on Bagley’s road to become the top-rated high school player in America. He is one of very few players of his caliber to not play for USA Basketball. ...

    Bagley was invited to play for USA Basketball, he just never showed up after making the team in October of 2014. ...

    There’s a reason Bagley’s father always carries that video camera. He’s supposedly collecting footage for a documentary about his son’s life. ...

  14. #4274
    Quote Originally Posted by hallcity View Post
    It sounds like if Bagley comes to Duke his father may be a problem:
    People thought that about Chuck Okafor too. Never heard a peep from him. K knows what he's doing. If the kid is alright, I'm not worried about the parents.
    Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.

    -Roy "Ole Huck" Williams

  15. #4275
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    NC Raised, DC Resident
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Ah, yes, the best college prospect since Kevin Durant. Wait, wait. According to who? Because Biancardi said that was Wiggins, no?

    Bagley isn't the best college prospect since LeBron is he? Because I thought that honor went to Jabari. Actually no, it went to Shabazz Muhammad. Or wait, it now belongs to Michael Porter.

    The point is, I don't disagree (in and of itself) with the concept: don't sacrifice a more certain present for a more uncertain future. But to say Marvin Bagley is the best college prospect since _______ is just so overused and frankly often doesn't work out. You never know exactly how good these guys are. Harry Giles was the next Chris Webber. Until he wasn't. For whatever reason, injury in this case. It doesn't matter.

    The counterpoint is don't sacrifice a more certain bird (or birds) in hand for uncertain birds in the bush.

    - Chillin
    Please enlighten us who, currently on the roster, is/are the more certain bird(s) than Bagley Jr. in this context? Bolden? Delaurier? Vrank? It seems the counterpoint is flawed if it presumes any of those fine players is even close to the certainty of exceptional performance as Bagley Jr. is currently.

    Maybe I'm missing the crux of the counterpoint...is it that even pursuing Bagley Jr. is somehow sacrificing those already on the roster? Or is it that, if Bagley Jr. chooses Duke, there's uncertainty he would deliver more than the aforementioned because, um, Jabari and Harry and Andrew failed to live up to hyperbolic expectations in their to-date short careers?

  16. #4276
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Please enlighten us who, currently on the roster, is/are the more certain bird(s) than Bagley III in this context? Bolden? Delaurier? Vrank? It seems the counterpoint is flawed if it presumes any of those fine players is even close to the certainty of exceptional performance as Bagley III is currently.

    Maybe I'm missing the crux of the counterpoint...is it that even pursuing Bagley III is somehow sacrificing those already on the roster? Or is it that, if Bagley III chooses Duke, there's uncertainty he would deliver more than the aforementioned because, um, Jabari and Harry and Andrew failed to live up to hyperbolic expectations in their to-date short careers?
    FIFY

  17. #4277
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    ....

    The counterpoint is don't sacrifice a more certain bird (or birds) in hand for uncertain birds in the bush.

    - Chillin
    Unless the two birds in your hand are starlings and the bird in the bush is a bald eagle.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  18. #4278
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Please enlighten us who, currently on the roster, is/are the more certain bird(s) than Bagley Jr. in this context? Bolden? Delaurier? Vrank? It seems the counterpoint is flawed if it presumes any of those fine players is even close to the certainty of exceptional performance as Bagley Jr. is currently.

    Maybe I'm missing the crux of the counterpoint...is it that even pursuing Bagley Jr. is somehow sacrificing those already on the roster? Or is it that, if Bagley Jr. chooses Duke, there's uncertainty he would deliver more than the aforementioned because, um, Jabari and Harry and Andrew failed to live up to hyperbolic expectations in their to-date short careers?
    The counterpoint, in and of itself, is really just playing devil's advocate for the purposes of the overarching point. The overarching point is much much more nuanced than you outline. I've explained it a few times at this point, and it's been circulating the Board for months (maybe years). The point is more or less that there is a spectrum to roster creation that spans loading up on OAD talent on one end to developing 4-year talent on the other end. In theory (and perhaps only there), there is a landing spot for an optimized chance at winning titles both today and in the future. The debate has raged on as to where that point is. There are countless views on the matter, and there are tons of ins and outs, not least of which is the impending retirement of Coach K that has probably pushed us in recent years to the OAD side of the spectrum.

    Simply stated, my view is that the "Landing Spot" (my term above) is somewhere between the two ends of the spectrum. It's hard to quantify the Landing Spot as it's not really a number. But qualitatively, I feel that with the theoretical addition of Bagley at this current moment given where we are in the annual cycle, what the roster construction is for this year and future years, and on and on and on, I am now below 50% on my desire to bring him on board. I used a 45% number upthread, not that there's any science to that.

    You and others are free to have different views. Heck, the Board is pretty split on this topic - that much is apparent. And you can blame my view on a bad taste from last year (which Troublemaker has and, frankly, is probably a not insignificant input on what makes me land at 45%). But my view is that I would not add Marvin Bagley at the current moment, all things considered. And my view is just barely (45%) against adding Bagley - a mere 5% bump and I'd be totally on the fence. And obviously I don't have access to all the data points that the coaching staff has (relationship dynamics, culture, promises, etc etc etc).

    Now, if things were different, the calculus would change entirely. If we didn't have a clear PG (a la Derryck Thornton) or a clear guard rotation (a la Andre Dawkins), a move like this may make total, logical sense. But we aren't in a similar situation. We have a top-flight OAD big man and a formerly top-flight second-year big man that I have a lot of faith in. I'd ride those horses and develop my bench more as opposed to adding Bagley, clogging the frontcourt, and adding incremental roster composition risk on the 4-year talent side of the spectrum, thereby endangering the Landing Spot.

    I apologize if my counterpoint missed the mark - I tend to miss a lot of marks. But what I just described is my final attempt at characterizing my feelings on the situation, and I'm sure at least a few others'. Happy to land Bagley, watch him dominate everyone and everything, retain all of our talent for next year, and be proven completely and utterly wrong.

    - Chillin

  19. #4279
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    But we aren't in a similar situation. We have a top-flight OAD big man and a formerly top-flight second-year big man that I have a lot of faith in. I'd ride those horses and develop my bench more as opposed to adding Bagley, clogging the frontcourt, and adding incremental roster composition risk on the 4-year talent side of the spectrum, thereby endangering the Landing Spot.
    The frontcourt won't be clogged at all as Carter, Bagley and Bolden will be seeing the majority of the minutes at the 4/5 with some scraps left behind for DeLaurier and Vrankovic depending on foul trouble or when we're blowing teams out at the end of games perhaps.

    I would argue that the Landing Spot is already being endangered since you're sacrificing an almost definite upgrade of this year's Duke team with the addition of Marvin Bagley Jr. just to give DeLaurier and Vrankovic more playing time in the hopes that they will be high impact ACC players by the time they are seniors when that is nowhere near guaranteed.

    I say lets make a move that turns Duke from a Final 4 contender into a heavy national championship favorite like UK 2015 now and worry about the future later!

  20. #4280
    bagley would be awesome and i really hope we get him. but i still feel this team hinges much more on duval and trent.

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