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  1. #4241
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Utah
    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Jerry Meyer updated his prediction today to Duke. Take it for what he's worth, but he's the lead scout at 247 and usually ranked at the top of their expert board.

    We'll see how it plays out, but I'd be pretty excited if he was on campus come late august...
    The 24/7 scout to whom Duke fans should pay attention is Andrew Slater.

  2. #4242
    Ok, I'll bite.

    "The latest intel on No 1.-ranked prospect Marvin Bagley coincides with the Duke surge in his Crystal Ball. Duke is up to 50 percent in Bagley's Crystal Ball, with the 6-10 power forward scheduled to officially visit next weekend. The Blue Devils are believed to be in a strong position with Bagley, and I have changed my Crystal Ball pick from USC to Duke." - Jerry Meyer

    http://247sports.com/Bolt/Duke-surgi...gley-101602099

  3. #4243
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    I have found in the past that the Crystal Ball can sometimes be a bit Looney.

  4. #4244
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    I have found in the past that the Crystal Ball can sometimes be a bit Looney.
    I'm guessing you also spent some time in the school of hard Knox.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #4245
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    I'm guessing you also spent some time in the school of hard Knox.
    Much more of that and this thread will get sent out to the Barnes.







    Too soon?

  6. #4246
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lynchburg, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Much more of that and this thread will get sent out to the Barnes.







    Too soon?
    Too soon for this thread to turn into a series of puns? Nope. Threads devolving into puns is DBR's version of the second law of thermodynamics. At 4200+ posts this thread has been living on borrowed time.

  7. #4247
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    Too soon for this thread to turn into a series of puns? Nope. Threads devolving into puns is DBR's version of the second law of thermodynamics. At 4200+ posts this thread has been living on borrowed time.
    Given that it's the offseason, it would be interesting to see an empirical study of which happens more frequently, and/or more quickly, in a DBR thread - devolution to puns or devolution to Carolina bashing.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  8. #4248
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Given that it's the offseason, it would be interesting to see an empirical study of which happens more frequently, and/or more quickly, in a DBR thread - devolution to puns or devolution to Carolina bashing.

    There is never any off-season for the bolded. Never.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  9. #4249
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Given that it's the offseason, it would be interesting to see an empirical study of which happens more frequently, and/or more quickly, in a DBR thread - devolution to puns or devolution to Carolina bashing.
    I prefer to think of it as progression to the mean.

  10. #4250
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CarmenWallaceWade View Post
    Ok, I'll bite.

    "The latest intel on No 1.-ranked prospect Marvin Bagley coincides with the Duke surge in his Crystal Ball. Duke is up to 50 percent in Bagley's Crystal Ball, with the 6-10 power forward scheduled to officially visit next weekend. The Blue Devils are believed to be in a strong position with Bagley, and I have changed my Crystal Ball pick from USC to Duke." - Jerry Meyer

    http://247sports.com/Bolt/Duke-surgi...gley-101602099
    I admit, I've been sucked in. I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't come to fruition.

  11. #4251
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I admit, I've been sucked in. I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't come to fruition.
    Ok, so I just looked up Javin's high school stats. I have no idea how competitive his league was, but according to the source I found, for his high school varsity career, he shot 41% from three-point range, on 1.4 three-point attempts per game, and also had 3.9 assists per game.

    Is there any chance he could play some SF at Duke? Because that could solve a lot of issues if he could (that is, if Bagley comes to town).

  12. #4252
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Ok, so I just looked up Javin's high school stats. I have no idea how competitive his league was, but according to the source I found, for his high school varsity career, he shot 41% from three-point range, on 1.4 three-point attempts per game, and also had 3.9 assists per game.

    Is there any chance he could play some SF at Duke? Because that could solve a lot of issues if he could (that is, if Bagley comes to town).
    I think there's a small chance, sure, but most likely Javin will receive backup 4 minutes if he plays.

    Why do you ask? I think what you're telling me is that your predictive model for rotation minutes (which is very good) won't allow for Javin to play backup 4 minutes but might allow him to play backup SF minutes. Do I have that right?

  13. #4253
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I think there's a small chance, sure, but most likely Javin will receive backup 4 minutes if he plays.

    Why do you ask? I think what you're telling me is that your predictive model for rotation minutes (which is very good) won't allow for Javin to play backup 4 minutes but might allow him to play backup SF minutes. Do I have that right?
    As the fourth big on a team that rarely plays more than 3 bigs, DeLaurier would be the odd man out. "Backup PF" minutes are slim pickings.

    Conversely, on a team that is short on wings (only 3 clear-cut rotation wings, there is a spot available.

    I think it is unlikely - based on what we have seen thus far - that DeLaurier can play SF. But there are real minutes to be had at SF right now, whereas IF Bagley reclassifies and picks Duke there are not real minutes to be had in the post.

  14. #4254
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    I have found in the past that the Crystal Ball can sometimes be a bit Looney.
    I find that their Ball is sometimes a little cloudy...

  15. #4255
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    So

    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Given that it's the offseason, it would be interesting to see an empirical study of which happens more frequently, and/or more quickly, in a DBR thread - devolution to puns or devolution to Carolina bashing.
    I think they both happen more slowly than playing time discussions.

  16. #4256
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Ok, so I just looked up Javin's high school stats. I have no idea how competitive his league was, but according to the source I found, for his high school varsity career, he shot 41% from three-point range, on 1.4 three-point attempts per game, and also had 3.9 assists per game.

    Is there any chance he could play some SF at Duke? Because that could solve a lot of issues if he could (that is, if Bagley comes to town).
    I'm not particularly convinced he can play SF at Duke. He has grown a bit over the last year and I think is standing at a full 6'10 these days? Also, his high school league was notoriously bad. It was rural Virginia. Think Semi's high school league.

    That being said, Javin was the 40th (est.) ranked recruit in one of the deepest classes ever. That should mean that he would be a top 30 type player in most other classes. If Javin is good enough to play, then he'll be on the court in some capacity, if he's not, then he won't play as much. I think he makes a jump and becomes the first big off the bench from this roster as currently constructed. And should we add another player... he'll still get time at the 4 or maybe the 5.

    There MAY be some minutes for the 3 for him, especially given his defensive potential, but if we were in a position to need to play him at the 3 to get him on the court, I think it's more likely that Bagley plays more on the perimeter.

    All in all, good problems to have, I think.
    Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.

    -Roy "Ole Huck" Williams

  17. #4257
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Much more of that and this thread will get sent out to the Barnes.







    Too soon?
    I can't imagine the world in which you're living. Stunned.



    <This one might be a bit obtuse?>
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  18. #4258
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I think there's a small chance, sure, but most likely Javin will receive backup 4 minutes if he plays.

    Why do you ask? I think what you're telling me is that your predictive model for rotation minutes (which is very good) won't allow for Javin to play backup 4 minutes but might allow him to play backup SF minutes. Do I have that right?
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    As the fourth big on a team that rarely plays more than 3 bigs, DeLaurier would be the odd man out. "Backup PF" minutes are slim pickings.

    Conversely, on a team that is short on wings (only 3 clear-cut rotation wings, there is a spot available.

    I think it is unlikely - based on what we have seen thus far - that DeLaurier can play SF. But there are real minutes to be had at SF right now, whereas IF Bagley reclassifies and picks Duke there are not real minutes to be had in the post.
    Yes, you are both correct.

    I agree that based on the brief look we had last season, it seems unlikely that Javin could grab time at SF. BUT (a) if Bagley comes to Duke, that's the only place Javin could find decent minutes*; and (b) even if his high school competition was poor, it surprises me that Javin took 12% of his shots from three-range and hit 41% of them, and that plus his high assist rate suggests he at least possibly has some perimeter skills. If the competition for backup SF is Jordan Tucker (#57 RSCI), Alex O'Connell (#65 RSCI), and Jack White (unranked RSCI in 2016), then it seems to me that if Javin DeLaurier (#35 RSCI in 2016) has any perimeter skills at all he should be the favorite to win those backup SF minutes. Especially because his athleticism and length suggest he could defend the SF position at least as well and probably better (possibly much better) than the other three.


    * (2010, the only year in recent memory that Coach K played four bigs, was an aberration, because (i) we literally had only four perimeter players; and (ii) three of the four bigs played mpg in the teens, which would be very unlikely if we have Carter, Bagley, and Bolden)

  19. #4259
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yes, you are both correct.

    I agree that based on the brief look we had last season, it seems unlikely that Javin could grab time at SF. BUT (a) if Bagley comes to Duke, that's the only place Javin could find decent minutes*; and (b) even if his high school competition was poor, it surprises me that Javin took 12% of his shots from three-range and hit 41% of them, and that plus his high assist rate suggests he at least possibly has some perimeter skills. If the competition for backup SF is Jordan Tucker (#57 RSCI), Alex O'Connell (#65 RSCI), and Jack White (unranked RSCI in 2016), then it seems to me that if Javin DeLaurier (#35 RSCI in 2016) has any perimeter skills at all he should be the favorite to win those backup SF minutes. Especially because his athleticism and length suggest he could defend the SF position at least as well and probably better (possibly much better) than the other three.


    * (2010, the only year in recent memory that Coach K played four bigs, was an aberration, because (i) we literally had only four perimeter players; and (ii) three of the four bigs played mpg in the teens, which would be very unlikely if we have Carter, Bagley, and Bolden)


    This is a great point. Miles and Mason really did play pretty limited minutes, and Kelly essentially didn't play. We didn't really play Singler at the 4 at all that year either. We ran Zoubs and Lance out there and then put Plumlees for 3-4 minute spurts to give the big fellas some rest.

    This is a really good point for wondering how K uses those minutes.
    Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.

    -Roy "Ole Huck" Williams

  20. #4260
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    [/B]

    This is a great point. Miles and Mason really did play pretty limited minutes, and Kelly essentially didn't play. We didn't really play Singler at the 4 at all that year either. We ran Zoubs and Lance out there and then put Plumlees for 3-4 minute spurts to give the big fellas some rest.

    This is a really good point for wondering how K uses those minutes.
    Minutes played in 2010.

    Thomas-1013/40 games
    Zoubek 746/40 games
    Miles Plumlee 654/40 games
    Mason Plumlee 480/34 games (broken wrist early in season).

    Miles started a few more games than Zoubek and the two played almost exactly the same minutes.

    Thomas led the quartet with just over 25 mpg, Mason brought up the rear with about 14 per game, with Zoubek and Miles in between, both under 20 mpg.

    With Bagley (if) and Carter presumptive top-10 picks, it's hard to see this kind of minutes distribution working for a Bagley/Carter/Bolden/DeLaurier rotation.

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