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  1. #2201
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I agree. Carter is a post player who can shoot it a little bit. He's also a BIG guy, which would mean that if paired with Bolden we would have two guys who are... not fleet of foot. That's not the way Coach K has liked to do things. He typically wants mobility and versatility on defense, which is why we've almost always gone smaller/quicker at the PF spot.

    I mean, Coach K is certainly more willing to change his style than most coaches. But it would be quite out of character for us to go with a two-big lineup all season if we have a guy like Knox who can play a stretch-4 role.
    Agreed, but not when it comes to the 4. He's pretty consistent about that at both Duke and the Olympics.

    Here are the 3 starting line-ups during the gold medal games (2008, 2012, 2016), respectively:

    2008: Kidd, Bryant, James, Anthony, Howard
    2012: Paul, Bryant, James, Durant, Chandler
    2016: Irving, Thompson, Durant, Anthony, Jordan

    You can argue that Coach K plays mobile NBA 3s at the 3. During the Olympics and sometimes at Duke, this happens. But, when given options, Coach K doesn't play traditional 4s at the 4.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  2. #2202
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    Oct 2013
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    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    You can argue that Coach K plays mobile NBA 3s at the 3. During the Olympics and sometimes at Duke, this happens. But, when given options, Coach K doesn't play traditional 4s at the 4.
    What IS a traditional 4 at this point? Almost every NBA team prefers to play a stretch forward at the 4 now. I'd almost argue the ideal NBA lineup is a defensive specialist/rebounding 5, stretch 4, stretch 3, stretch 2, and playmaking/stretch 1. The more of those guys who can make plays, the better. It's taken a long time for NBA offenses to get to this point, but this was the natural evolution of the NBA lineup since the innovation that was the 3 point line. The "traditional" 4 is basically extinct. I think Coach K likes going smaller more for defensive/switching purposes, but the spacing that a stretch 4 provides offensively still applies in college.
    Last edited by kAzE; 02-21-2017 at 01:27 PM.

  3. #2203
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    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    What IS a traditional 4 at this point? Almost every NBA team prefers to play a stretch forward at the 4 now. I'd almost argue the ideal NBA lineup is a defensive specialist/rebounding 5, stretch 4, stretch 3, stretch 2, and playmaking/stretch 1. The more of those guys who can make plays, the better. It's taken a long time for NBA offenses to get to this point, but this was the natural evolution of the NBA lineup since the innovation that was the 3 point line. The "traditional" 4 is basically extinct.
    I agree with your overall premise, but Coach K's Olympic 4s are still 3s in the NBA (Durant, Anthony). A modern NBA 4 has a fantastic combination of strength, size, and shooting. A Duke 4 is an NBA 3 by nearly any definition (and in your definition, most certainly a strength 3).

    I'm not arguing that Coach K's 4s don't act like 4s in the NBA; they kinda are only significantly smaller/weaker. I'm arguing that Coach K's 4s are generally always NBA 3s.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  4. #2204
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I agree. Carter is a post player who can shoot it a little bit. He's also a BIG guy, which would mean that if paired with Bolden we would have two guys who are... not fleet of foot. That's not the way Coach K has liked to do things. He typically wants mobility and versatility on defense, which is why we've almost always gone smaller/quicker at the PF spot.

    I mean, Coach K is certainly more willing to change his style than most coaches. But it would be quite out of character for us to go with a two-big lineup all season if we have a guy like Knox who can play a stretch-4 role.
    yeah, fool me twice, etc, etc.

  5. #2205
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
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    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I agree with your overall premise, but Coach K's Olympic 4s are still 3s in the NBA (Durant, Anthony). A modern NBA 4 has a fantastic combination of strength, size, and shooting. A Duke 4 is an NBA 3 by nearly any definition (and in your definition, most certainly a strength 3).

    I'm not arguing that Coach K's 4s don't act like 4s in the NBA; they kinda are only significantly smaller/weaker. I'm arguing that Coach K's 4s are generally always NBA 3s.
    I wasn't in disagreement with you at all. Although I do think our use of NBA 3s as a college 4 is more a product of the guys we've gotten. Jabari, for instance is absolutely an NBA 4, as is Ryan Kelly. You might even argue that Justise Winslow is more effective as a small ball 4 in the NBA (at least until he figures out his shot). If we consistently got guys with that size who can shoot and make plays, Duke would absolutely use NBA 4s as college 4s.

    My previous post was more of a question about the use of the term "traditional 4." I just don't think anybody uses a non shooting/non play making big man as a 4 anymore if given a better option (Except maybe Roy Williams.) What I'm saying is, maybe the "traditional 4" IS a stretch 4 now.

  6. #2206
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    A bunch of ya'll seem to think Carter will play the 5, and I agree that is what most of the recruiting experts say is his college position. I further agree that K certainly seems to prefer a more mobile and skilled 4 (as some say, a NBA 3).

    But I think the overriding factor that determines who is on the floor for Duke is "who are our 5 best players?" That's why K hates talk of "positions" because he just wants our 5 best to be on the floor as much as possible.

    Carter is the highest rated recruit we have for next year (some may have Bamba or Duval higher, but it is so close as to not be meaningful and we don't have either of those guys yet). I think there is little question Carter will be one of our 5 best players. If Bolden returns and is healthy, many expect him to also be one of our 5 best players. Are you folks who say "Carter will play the 5" saying that you would expect Carter and Bolden to only very rarely play together? Are you saying that they would both not be on the floor at the end of a close game?

    I dunno... maybe you are right. It would be fun to see what would happen if Duke has Duval, Jackson, Kennard, Trent, Knox, Carter, Bolden, and Jeter on the roster. I would expect Carter, Boldenma Jeter to combine for well over 40 minutes per game, probably closer to 65 or 70.

    -Jason "I have been to some Pace games this year -- and I believe that Carter is a better shooter and quicker than ya'll may think" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  7. #2207
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I just found a mixtape from a Pace game I attended against Westminster, one of the bigger private schools in Atlanta and a school with a strong athletic program. Watch this video and you will see Carter playing more than a little bit on the perimeter. He drains long jumpshots and even 3s with a very fluid stroke and he handles the ball very nicely. Look, he's no Jayson Tatum and he is going to be a beast in the lane, but I am telling you I saw him play and he is capable of facing up and being a major threat at the college level.



    -Jason "I will freely admit, I am not an experienced college scout and it is hard to tell how stuff that works against Atlanta private school kids will translate to the top of college basketball" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #2208
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    Kennard's defense is an extreme liability at this juncture of his development and, as is, will not transfer to the NBA. I'd love to see him stay 4 years for selfish reasons but I fear he will quickly fade into obscurity in the pros without serious work on his defense. The potential is there to be a Kyle Korver type of specialist but a starter on an upper echelon NBA team doesn't seem within his reach at the moment.
    Kennard is much stronger this year than last year, and I expect further improvement. There is also "team defense," and Luke has excelled at that, anticipating passes and making steals.

    Defense was a liability for the equally skilled Mike Dunleavy, and he has lasted 15 seasons in the NBA averaging 28 minutes per game, mostly as a starter.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  9. #2209
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A bunch of ya'll seem to think Carter will play the 5, and I agree that is what most of the recruiting experts say is his college position. I further agree that K certainly seems to prefer a more mobile and skilled 4 (as some say, a NBA 3).

    But I think the overriding factor that determines who is on the floor for Duke is "who are our 5 best players?" That's why K hates talk of "positions" because he just wants our 5 best to be on the floor as much as possible.

    Carter is the highest rated recruit we have for next year (some may have Bamba or Duval higher, but it is so close as to not be meaningful and we don't have either of those guys yet). I think there is little question Carter will be one of our 5 best players. If Bolden returns and is healthy, many expect him to also be one of our 5 best players. Are you folks who say "Carter will play the 5" saying that you would expect Carter and Bolden to only very rarely play together? Are you saying that they would both not be on the floor at the end of a close game?

    I dunno... maybe you are right. It would be fun to see what would happen if Duke has Duval, Jackson, Kennard, Trent, Knox, Carter, Bolden, and Jeter on the roster. I would expect Carter, Boldenma Jeter to combine for well over 40 minutes per game, probably closer to 65 or 70.

    -Jason "I have been to some Pace games this year -- and I believe that Carter is a better shooter and quicker than ya'll may think" Evans
    Yup. That is exactly what I'm saying. Over the last 6 games, Tatum is averaging 36 points playing exclusively at the 4, despite having four big men in Amile, Giles, Bolden, and Jeter (I read that he can play). I realize that Giles is still recovering, Bolden is raw, and Jeter just had back surgery, but I'm a little surprised that these four players are averaging 44 minutes over the last 6 games.

    If this were any other coach, I'd argue that Knox would play some 3 (if not the majority of his minutes). But, just like RoyWill loves his speedy PGs, Coach K loves his mobile, dynamic 4s. And Carter - despite being mobile for a big man - is not in the same mold as Parker, Winslow, Ingram, or Tatum.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  10. #2210
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Dallas, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Over the last 6 games, Tatum is averaging 36 points playing exclusively at the 4
    Holy crap . . . that's like a point per minute played!

  11. #2211
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Carter is the highest rated recruit we have for next year (some may have Bamba or Duval higher, but it is so close as to not be meaningful and we don't have either of those guys yet). I think there is little question Carter will be one of our 5 best players. If Bolden returns and is healthy, many expect him to also be one of our 5 best players. Are you folks who say "Carter will play the 5" saying that you would expect Carter and Bolden to only very rarely play together? Are you saying that they would both not be on the floor at the end of a close game?
    Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Especially if we get Knox and get/keep one of Duval and Kennard. Then I think we'll run a starting lineup of Duval/Jackson, Kennard/Jackson, Trent, Knox, Carter, with Bolden backing up Carter and only occasionally going with a two-big lineup (sort of like this year).

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "I have been to some Pace games this year -- and I believe that Carter is a better shooter and quicker than ya'll may think" Evans
    For me it has nothing to do with his shooting range. It is on the defensive end that I base my opinion that we wouldn't see much of Bolden and Carter on the floor together. You have to be able to defend your position, and neither Bolden nor Carter are suited to defend away from the basket. And in the college game, the PF needs to defend away from the basket.

  12. #2212
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I just found a mixtape from a Pace game I attended against Westminster, one of the bigger private schools in Atlanta and a school with a strong athletic program. Watch this video and you will see Carter playing more than a little bit on the perimeter. He drains long jumpshots and even 3s with a very fluid stroke and he handles the ball very nicely. Look, he's no Jayson Tatum and he is going to be a beast in the lane, but I am telling you I saw him play and he is capable of facing up and being a major threat at the college level.



    -Jason "I will freely admit, I am not an experienced college scout and it is hard to tell how stuff that works against Atlanta private school kids will translate to the top of college basketball" Evans
    I don't know how to imbed Youtube files, but here is Amile in high school: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJGivAmaXyQ

    Yes, he shoots a lot of jumpers.

    I wouldn't put a lot of equity into a big man shooting jumpshoots/threes in high school vs what they are allowed to do at Duke.

    Carter may have the jumper in his arsenal, but he may not use it depending on its effectiveness.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  13. #2213
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    I don't know how to imbed Youtube files, but here is Amile in high school: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJGivAmaXyQ

    Yes, he shoots a lot of jumpers.

    I wouldn't put a lot of equity into a big man shooting jumpshoots/threes in high school vs what they are allowed to do at Duke.

    Carter may have the jumper in his arsenal, but he may not use it depending on its effectiveness.
    Mason Plumlee fancied himself a bit of point forward coming to Duke, and tried to shoot 3s as a freshman. As you said, Coach K has a way of coaching inefficient shots out of players when they get to Duke. Jefferson stopped shooting 10+ feet from the basket. Lance Thomas eventually stopped shooting at all.

  14. #2214
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBlue View Post
    Kennard's defense is an extreme liability at this juncture of his development and, as is, will not transfer to the NBA. I'd love to see him stay 4 years for selfish reasons but I fear he will quickly fade into obscurity in the pros without serious work on his defense. The potential is there to be a Kyle Korver type of specialist but a starter on an upper echelon NBA team doesn't seem within his reach at the moment.
    What's funny about Kennard is that his defensive stats are all pretty good. He has, at least according to advanced stats, played pretty good defense. His defensive win shares increased from 0.9 in 2015-16 to 1.4 in 2016-17, his D Rating per 100 possessions fell from 108.0 to 101.2, and his Defensive Box Plus/Minus rose from 0.7 to 1.5. Meanwhile, Duke's defense as a a team has drastically improved this season compared to last year. So if he is such a liability on defense, then he is doing it as part of one of the better defenses in the country.

    I liken Kennard to JJ Redick. Both are not considered exceptional athletes in the jump and run manner. JJ has been able to carve out a role as a good defender in the NBA in spite of his limitations. Kennard is 2 inches taller than Redick and would likely play the same position. He's capable of being a serviceable defender at the next level at the least. And if he is able to translate his ability to score at all three levels to the Association, then that's what will allow him to succeed. To me, the question that NBA scouts need to evaluate is not about his defense. It's about whether he can continue to score in the midrange and especially at the rim in the NBA. Everything else is a big plus for him.

  15. #2215
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I just found a mixtape from a Pace game I attended against Westminster, one of the bigger private schools in Atlanta and a school with a strong athletic program. Watch this video and you will see Carter playing more than a little bit on the perimeter. He drains long jumpshots and even 3s with a very fluid stroke and he handles the ball very nicely. Look, he's no Jayson Tatum and he is going to be a beast in the lane, but I am telling you I saw him play and he is capable of facing up and being a major threat at the college level.



    -Jason "I will freely admit, I am not an experienced college scout and it is hard to tell how stuff that works against Atlanta private school kids will translate to the top of college basketball" Evans
    Thanks for the link, Jason. I just love seeing Westminster get owned

    They were a rival of my kid's school. Always a lot of fun when we beat them!

  16. #2216
    I expect if we have Bolden next year but not Knox, then we will see Carter a lot at the 4 with Bolden/Jeter/Vrank at the 5. The other alternative would be playing DeLaurier or White at the 4 and I think "K's 5 best players" will trump DeLaurier or White getting starters minutes.

    I've seen Carter play a lot of games and he is more mobile defensively than Hicks (who is chasing around ACC 4s for the Heels) and I expect would defend the 4 a lot better than Jabari did. He wouldn't be the quickest 4, but his length helps compensate. Carter has the outside shot - especially out to 16 feet - to stretch the defense. And it hasn't been in our playbook lately, but Carter plus a healthy Bolden would be fun to watch in high-low sets.

    If Knox comes in and clearly has more to give to the team than Bolden, then Carter will start at the 5 with Bolden, Jeter, Vrank and DeLaurier battling for front court minutes.

  17. #2217
    Quote Originally Posted by SkyBrickey View Post
    I expect if we have Bolden next year but not Knox, then we will see Carter a lot at the 4 with Bolden/Jeter/Vrank at the 5. The other alternative would be playing DeLaurier or White at the 4 and I think "K's 5 best players" will trump DeLaurier or White getting starters minutes.

    I've seen Carter play a lot of games and he is more mobile defensively than Hicks (who is chasing around ACC 4s for the Heels) and I expect would defend the 4 a lot better than Jabari did. He wouldn't be the quickest 4, but his length helps compensate. Carter has the outside shot - especially out to 16 feet - to stretch the defense. And it hasn't been in our playbook lately, but Carter plus a healthy Bolden would be fun to watch in high-low sets.

    If Knox comes in and clearly has more to give to the team than Bolden, then Carter will start at the 5 with Bolden, Jeter, Vrank and DeLaurier battling for front court minutes.
    Carter is a huge human being and in pretty great shape. He's consistently measured 6'9" ish or just under that and has a really long wingspan of somewhere between 7'3" and 7'5". Those are similar numbers to Caleb Swanigan and Elton Brand. Marques Bolden, by comparison, consistently measured in at 6'11" with a 7'6" wingspan. If Carter is capable of playing alongside Bolden, that would present Duke's opponents with some really long arms to navigate to get to the rim.

  18. #2218
    This is fun, we're actually talking about recruiting in a recruiting thread!

    So who leaves? My guess: Tatum, Giles, Grayson, Bolden.

    Who's new? Duval, Knox, Carter, Trent, and Alex. I know CB has us at 82% with Knox but I think it's more like 50-50 with us and UNC. If we don't get him AND Kennard goes pro, that's gonna be a problem.

    I agree that Carter plays the 5 and Knox plays the 4. I could have sworn Knox said he didn't want to play the 4, but after numerous fruitless Duck Duck Go searches I think I must have made that up.

    Do a lineup of Duval, Frank, Kennard/Trent, Knox, and Carter. I don't love the Defensive potential of that lineup, based on what little I know of Knox and Carter, but I think we'd be more than solid on Offense, especially if Duval improves his shooting as the year progresses.
    Last edited by JBDuke; 02-25-2017 at 05:09 PM. Reason: edited to remove baseless transfer speculation

  19. #2219
    If I had a "No. 1" pick from of all the remaining recruits, it would be Duval. We need a floor general to run the offense. K has been quoted telling Duval "the keys will be in your hands".

  20. #2220
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ... We simply have no idea about early entry at this point -- except for Tatum who, I think, is 100% turning pro -- everyone else is somewhere between 10% (Jackson) and 95% (Giles).

    -Jason "FWIW, I would put the other odds as Grayson-70%, Kennard-50%, Bolden-30%" Evans
    Does the Crystal Ball have a section for "going pro?"

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