Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
I would be more enthusiastic about getting another player if they were a solid 3pt shooter, whether he be a SG, SF or "stretch 4". Bagley may in fact be better than any or all of Bolden/Delaurier/Vrank, but it's not like we lack quality players that can be plugged into the frontcourt. We do lack 3pt shooters though. Grayson had a bad year last year, but when he's healthy, he's about as good a 3pt shooter in the NCAA. After him, we've got a lot of unknowns from 3. Jack White took 2 3s last year, making 1. After that, nobody on the team has taken a 3 in college. Duval has a rep as a mediocre 3pt shooter, Trent has a rep as a mediocre to + 3pt shooter. Tucker has a rep as a + 3pt shooter. O'Connell has a rep of being capable of shooting 3s. Goldwire might not play enough for his reputation to really matter. It could turn out that all of Duval, Trent, Tucker, O'Connell and White shoot the 3 at an above-replacement rate (ie., >33%), to complement a (hopefully) >40% shooter in Grayson.
I'm not advocating that Duke not pursue Bagley, but landing him doesn't change Duke's dynamic as much as landing a high-quality 3pt threat. Of course any one of Bolden/Carter/Javin/Vrank might get injured and not play much/well during the season, and as such, Bagley would be a huge boost.
What you say may be true, but 2017 recruiting was all but over before this news (re?)appeared. So there wouldn't seem to be a "high-quality 3pt threat" on the market, at least as it relates to next year's roster. In other words, that part of your argument sort of seems a moot point.

So I'm back to this question: Does Marvin Bagley (III?) give Duke more in his one year than his not being here creates positive developments for others/the program? It's essentially impossible to know the answer. Would a transfer happen that wouldn't have otherwise happen? Would we miss a 2018 recruit because a big man, who otherwise would have, now can't jump to the League? Does it create some sort of sub-culture/chemistry issue on the team where we accepted this super late addition who comes to campus later than others? Etc. Etc. Etc.

Again, it's nearly impossible to know these answers. But in my humble opinion, at some point you have to play your hand and stop posturing. We may not definitively be at that point right now (hence my 45% number I blurted out above), but we're arguably in the ballpark.

To me, this is an interesting microcosm of many of our offseason concerns.

- Chillin