2017 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[Ian]

As long as we win, I'm fine with it. I may not have as much of an emotional attachment to the players, but my passion for Duke basketball wouldn't change.

And what if Duke set up fake classes to keep the 12 players eligible without them acutally showing up for classes. Would you be fine with that "as long as we win"? Or do you think there is a line beyond which not amount of winning can justify?
Everybody wants to win, even the people who would prefer Bagley not come. The issue that is being debated is where should that line be drawn.
Just for the record recruiting 12 one and dones every year would be well past that line for me. Any pretense that the participants are playing "college" basketball would be laughable. It should more appropriately be called the High School All-Star Team Pre-draft Barnstorming Tour Sponsored By Duke University.

[JasonEvans]

Everybody wants to win, even the people who would prefer Bagley not come. The issue that is being debated is where should that line be drawn.
Just for the record recruiting 12 one and dones every year would be well past that line for me. Any pretense that the participants are playing "college" basketball would be laughable. It should more appropriately be called the High School All-Star Team Pre-draft Barnstorming Tour Sponsored By Duke University.

I've said this before, but predicting 1-and-done talent is a total guessing game. The Harrison twins (both top 5 prospects) were certain to be 1-and-done... until they stayed in school. Harrison Barnes (#1 recruit) was a mortal lock to be 1-and-done... until he came back for his soph season. No one thought Miles Bridges would stay at MSU... until he shocked everyone this spring. Top 5 recruit Ivan Rabb was sure to be at Cal for only one season... nope. I could go on and on.

On the other hand, Tyus Jones, Justice Winslow, and Frank Jackson were not expected to be one-and-done when Duke recruited them. It is a guessing game.

-Jason "K takes guys who fit what he is trying to build and fit our culture. Some stay, some leave... that is reality and wishing it would be any different is a fool's errand" Evans

[BD80]

... wishing it would be any different is a fool's errand ..

You called?

[budwom]

I laugh at the suggestion that Bagley coming in this year will impact Javin and his willingness to stay at Duke.

Javin knows that Duke has been recruiting Bagley for next year, what difference does it make if Bagley comes this year or next? I would suggest that it would be more advantageous for Javin for playing time if Bagley were NOT competing for PT in Javin's junior year rather than his sophomore year.

Not to get too embroiled in this, but it's not unreasonable to say that without Bagley, Javin will be fairly likely to be in the big man rotation THIS year; and if Bagley comes, he is much less likely to be in the rotation. But I don't care that much, whatever happens, happens.

[lotusland]

Put another way, DeLaurier (7.1 mpg, 1.2 ppg) is in a very similar spot as Ryan Kelly (6.5 mpg, 1.2 ppg), Matt Jones (7.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg), Brian Zoubek (7.3 mpg, 3.1 ppg) and Miles Plumlee (6.9 mpg, 1.8 ppg) going into his sophomore year. He is not all that different from Quin Cook (11.7 mpg, 4.4 ppg), Amile Jefferson (12.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg), or Lance Thomas (14.9 mpg, 4.0 ppg). He's certainly well ahead of where Marshall Plumlee (2.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg) was as a freshman.

Some guys put in the work and have the skills to really improve upon a disappointing freshman campaign... some guys go elsewhere and figure it out... some guys never make it. To say we have any idea at all into which of these categories DeLaurier will fall is foolish. I wonder though, can any of you think of anyone who showed in games that they deserved more time but did not get it? I mean, it is not like we watched DeLaurier play last season and thought, "That guy looks ready to play against Hicks and Meeks!"



"Didn't need him?!?!" Had he not been hurt, I'd bet he would have played a ton in a season where Tatum, Jefferson, Giles, and Jeter all missed multiple weeks due to injury. And one more thing, if you "have a feeling..." Bolden won't be here very long, what is your concern about bring in Bagley? I thought the problem with Bagley was that he would deny valuable learning minutes to Bolden. What does it matter if Bagley gets the minutes and leaves or Bolden gets the minutes and leaves? Or is this all about your agenda for making sure Javin DeLaurier becomes a star some day? I'm just trying to understand why you (and others) don't want the top high school player in the land -- a guy many say would have gone #1 in THE NBA DRAFT A FEW WEEKS AGO -- to suit up for Duke.

On another note, I see that you did not answer some of my questions. Would you care to address them?


-Jason "I'm not trying to pick on you, lotus... I just want to understand how a Duke fan could say some of the things you have been saying" Evans

Jason I didn't trust my memory but had a few minutes this morning look at little more closely at the comparisons which you made above and, as expected, I confirmed that Javin's PT as a freshman was nothing like the former players you listed above. MPG and PPG don't tell an accurate story because DNPs are not included. Javin played mostly against cupcakes. He played 85 minutes over 12 games. For comparison, as freshman:

Amile - 405 minutes over 32 games
Matt - 235/32
Ryan - 743/32
Quinn - 387/33

Chase - 254/32
Gbinije - 111/19
Semi - 63/6
Murphy - 194/33

So Javin played fewer minutes in fewer games than anyone but Semi. If you are going to project transfers based on minutes (which I'm not suggesting) Javin's PT is much closer to the transfers than the guys who stayed.

[BD80]

I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope Bagley comes this year. I mean Coach K would then HAVE to play a deeper bench, wouldn't he.


I mean seriously, wouldn't he?


Hello? Anyone there? He'd have to play a deeper bench ... I'm certain of it ... he'd have to ... sob ... they thought I was crazy ... I had them with the strawberries ... he'd HAVE to play more guys ...

[lotusland]

I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope Bagley comes this year. I mean Coach K would then HAVE to play a deeper bench, wouldn't he.


I mean seriously, wouldn't he?


Hello? Anyone there? He'd have to play a deeper bench ... I'm certain of it ... he'd have to ... sob ... they thought I was crazy ... I had them with the strawberries ... he'd HAVE to play more guys ...

Yes 9-10 man rotation and mostly zone D.

[Indoor66]

Yes 9-10 man rotation and mostly zone D.

In all games played before noon tomorrow.

[mattman91]

I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY hope Bagley comes this year. I mean Coach K would then HAVE to play a deeper bench, wouldn't he.


I mean seriously, wouldn't he?


Hello? Anyone there? He'd have to play a deeper bench ... I'm certain of it ... he'd have to ... sob ... they thought I was crazy ... I had them with the strawberries ... he'd HAVE to play more guys ...

Yep. Besser would probably average a good 6-7 minutes a game.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I've said this before, but predicting 1-and-done talent is a total guessing game. The Harrison twins (both top 5 prospects) were certain to be 1-and-done... until they stayed in school. Harrison Barnes (#1 recruit) was a mortal lock to be 1-and-done... until he came back for his soph season. No one thought Miles Bridges would stay at MSU... until he shocked everyone this spring. Top 5 recruit Ivan Rabb was sure to be at Cal for only one season... nope. I could go on and on.

On the other hand, Tyus Jones, Justice Winslow, and Frank Jackson were not expected to be one-and-done when Duke recruited them. It is a guessing game.

-Jason "K takes guys who fit what he is trying to build and fit our culture. Some stay, some leave... that is reality and wishing it would be any different is a fool's errand" Evans

I think you're completely exaggerating the level of "total guessing game" for OADs. IMO, the only Duke player since Duke's OAD revolution started who stayed and who was likely to be an OAD before the season was Marques Bolden.

I actually think it's pretty predictable to guess the surefire OADs and be ~90% right on those guesses. The difficulty lies in guessing who will stay as those players could have a great season and leave (Winslow, Jones) or just leave for some unknown season (Frank Jackson). For instance, I am 100% sure Duval is gone and 99% sure Carter is gone. But Trent Jr? That's tougher.

In the last 3 years, only 1 top 5 player in that class stayed for his sophomore year: Ivan Rabb (as you accurately pointed out). Top 10 players? 4 players (Rabb, Malik Newman, Justin Jackson, Miles Bridges). This year, in the top 10, I guess one player will stay for his sophomore year.

[SoCalDukeFan]

And what if Duke set up fake classes to keep the 12 players eligible without them acutally showing up for classes. Would you be fine with that "as long as we win"? Or do you think there is a line beyond which not amount of winning can justify?
Everybody wants to win, even the people who would prefer Bagley not come. The issue that is being debated is where should that line be drawn.
Just for the record recruiting 12 one and dones every year would be well past that line for me. Any pretense that the participants are playing "college" basketball would be laughable. It should more appropriately be called the High School All-Star Team Pre-draft Barnstorming Tour Sponsored By Duke University.

If I were a college basketball coach I would recruit the most talented players who met my profile for academics, character, etc. I would demand that they go to class and get something out of their college experience besides basketball. I would rather win with those players than lose to them playing on another team. So I have no issue with our recruiting.

But the current situation has reduced my passion for college basketball in general and Duke basketball in particular.

SoCal

[jimsumner]

I've said this before, but predicting 1-and-done talent is a total guessing game. The Harrison twins (both top 5 prospects) were certain to be 1-and-done... until they stayed in school. Harrison Barnes (#1 recruit) was a mortal lock to be 1-and-done... until he came back for his soph season. No one thought Miles Bridges would stay at MSU... until he shocked everyone this spring. Top 5 recruit Ivan Rabb was sure to be at Cal for only one season... nope. I could go on and on.

On the other hand, Tyus Jones, Justice Winslow, and Frank Jackson were not expected to be one-and-done when Duke recruited them. It is a guessing game.

-Jason "K takes guys who fit what he is trying to build and fit our culture. Some stay, some leave... that is reality and wishing it would be any different is a fool's errand" Evans

It's not just predicting one-and-done, it's projecting future rosters with any degree of certainty.

Look at the high school class of 2015.

Duke signed Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, Derryck Thornton, Chase Jeter and Antonio Vrankovic from that class.

Did anyone think that Vrankovic would be the only one standing going into the 2017-'18 season? Ingram was a putative OAD but the others were all viewed as long-term propositions. Instead Duke got five combined years from Kennard, Thornton and Jeter.

And it's not like Thornton and Jeter didn't see the floor.

Putting rosters together requires a high degree of nimbleness. Transfers are epidemic, across the landscape. Duke's current roster has six guaranteed four-year players, Vrankovic, DeLaurier, White, Tucker, O'Connell and Goldwire. All were recruited with the understanding that Duke would continue to recruit the Tatum's and Ingram's of the world and those players would be their competition for PT. All understood that going in. Will all six make it to the finish line at Duke? I hope so but I suspect not.

If I had my druthers, the current Duke coach would go a little deeper into his bench. Perhaps that would keep some people around longer. Perhaps not. Look at Thornton and Jeter.

But the current coach seems to have had some level of success doing it his way and I rather suspect he's not soliciting input from me.

[UrinalCake]

From earlier in this thread -- What has to happen for the NCAA to allow 5-star Marvin Bagley to play this season

I'm confused. I was assured that academics are outside the jurisdiction of the NCAA.

(Yes, that was meant to be tongue-in-cheek)

[thedukelamere]

MB III on campus this morning, will be in Durham through Sunday...

http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/coll...162865463.html

[kAzE]

MB III on campus this morning, will be in Durham through Sunday...

http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/coll...162865463.html

The article says if he did come to Duke in 2017, he wouldn't be able to do the Dominican Republic trip. That's unfortunate.

[Philadukie]

The article says if he did come to Duke in 2017, he wouldn't be able to do the Dominican Republic trip. That's unfortunate.

I'm not sure that's correct. I believe someone posted the relevant section from NCAA eligibility criteria for summer trips and I remember it indicated that Freshmen only have to be enrolled for the fall semester to take the trip. Perhaps someone could expand on that or post it again.

(Even if my rememberance of the requirement is correct, he still may not be able to attend if his classes to finish HS aren't completed and he isn't cleared by the NCAA yet. But being enrolled in the second summer session I don't think applies to Freshmen.)

[lotusland]

It's not just predicting one-and-done, it's projecting future rosters with any degree of certainty.

Look at the high school class of 2015.

Duke signed Brandon Ingram, Luke Kennard, Derryck Thornton, Chase Jeter and Antonio Vrankovic from that class.

Did anyone think that Vrankovic would be the only one standing going into the 2017-'18 season? Ingram was a putative OAD but the others were all viewed as long-term propositions. Instead Duke got five combined years from Kennard, Thornton and Jeter.

And it's not like Thornton and Jeter didn't see the floor.

Putting rosters together requires a high degree of nimbleness. Transfers are epidemic, across the landscape. Duke's current roster has six guaranteed four-year players, Vrankovic, DeLaurier, White, Tucker, O'Connell and Goldwire. All were recruited with the understanding that Duke would continue to recruit the Tatum's and Ingram's of the world and those players would be their competition for PT. All understood that going in. Will all six make it to the finish line at Duke? I hope so but I suspect not.

If I had my druthers, the current Duke coach would go a little deeper into his bench. Perhaps that would keep some people around longer. Perhaps not. Look at Thornton and Jeter.

But the current coach seems to have had some level of success doing it his way and I rather suspect he's not soliciting input from me.

The only times I've been outright critical of bringing a particular OAD there has almost no doubt about the immediate and future impact. Last year when Bolden signed on we had 5th year Amile returning along with Jeter and Vrank as well as Giles and Javin coming in. Playing behind Amile and Giles and sucking minutes from Jeter and Javin was very predictable. It's no surprise that Jeter is gone (although Marques never really outplayed Jeter imo). The only surprise is that Bolden is still here (for which I'm grateful). Likewise next year we have Marques, Javin and Vrank back and Carter coming in. We did not need Bamba and we don't need Bagley. We have 3 very good post players and Vrank has shown that he is very capable of handling the role of the 4th option when injuries or foul trouble call. So we can't bring either of those guys on then say " well who knew Javin, Vrank or Jack would transfer?" If you really want some experienced players /upper class men to stay, you need to exercise some restraint and not sign a late recruit just because there could be injuries that require you to rely on some top 30 guys instead a top 10 guys for a bit. That's what coaching is for. I'm glad K is a great recruiter but I also trust him to coach up our top 30 - 50 guys to handle the 4th spot on the depth chart.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The only times I've been outright critical of bringing a particular OAD there has almost no doubt about the immediate and future impact. Last year when Bolden signed on we had 5th year Amile returning along with Jeter and Vrank as well as Giles and Javin coming in. Playing behind Amile and Giles and sucking minutes from Jeter and Javin was very predictable. It's no surprise that Jeter is gone (although Marques never really outplayed Jeter imo). The only surprise is that Bolden is still here (for which I'm grateful). Likewise next year we have Marques, Javin and Vrank back and Carter coming in. We did not need Bamba and we don't need Bagley. We have 3 very good post players and Vrank has shown that he is very capable of handling the role of the 4th option when injuries or foul trouble call. So we can't bring either of those guys on then say " well who knew Javin, Vrank or Jack would transfer?" If you really want some experienced players /upper class men to stay, you need to exercise some restraint and not sign a late recruit just because there could be injuries that require you to rely on some top 30 guys instead a top 10 guys for a bit. That's what coaching is for. I'm glad K is a great recruiter but I also trust him to coach up our top 30 - 50 guys to handle the 4th spot on the depth chart.

It's more accurate to say that we have 3 or maybe 4 very promising post players. None of them have proven anything at the college level. Can Antonio, Marques, Javin, or Wendell stay healthy all year? What if one of them gets into foul trouble? Even if healthy, you are trusting a player or two that has never been relied upon in his college career.

That being the case, it seems like it would be a good idea to bring in one additional player, a player that many consider to be among the most talented prospects in the nation. Would the team be better with Marvin Bagley III on the roster? Absolutely.

[richardjackson199]

It's more accurate to say that we have 3 or maybe 4 very promising post players. None of them have proven anything at the college level. Can Antonio, Marques, Javin, or Wendell stay healthy all year? What if one of them gets into foul trouble? Even if healthy, you are trusting a player or two that has never been relied upon in his college career.

That being the case, it seems like it would be a good idea to bring in one additional player, a player that many consider to be among the most talented prospects in the nation. Would the team be better with Marvin Bagley III on the roster? Absolutely.

With a team this young and inexperienced, foul trouble would be expected. In a 6 game (hopefully) single elimination national tourney, foul trouble in one or more of those games would be pretty likely.

Having the highest quality post depth in that situation is huge. In this year's national title game, when the refs went whistle happy getting both teams in foul trouble, it helped that Roy was able to bring OAD talent Bradley off the bench.

Getting Bagley would greatly increase our Duke team's odds of winning it all, this year. I could not be more excited that he is on campus and that we are now in a great position to be his choice.

[lotusland]

With a team this young and inexperienced, foul trouble would be expected. In a 6 game (hopefully) single elimination national tourney, foul trouble in one or more of those games would be pretty likely.

Having the highest quality post depth in that situation is huge. In this year's national title game, when the refs went whistle happy getting both teams in foul trouble, it helped that Roy was able to bring OAD talent Bradley off the bench.

Getting Bagley would greatly increase our Duke team's odds of winning it all, this year. I could not be more excited that he is on campus and that we are now in a great position to be his choice.

So we'll have some foul and injury trouble. We have 4 post players now not counting Jack and he can definitely play the 4 spot for a few minutes in a pinch. Our post talent and depth far surpasses our guards/wings and Duke is Guard U. If you are worried about foul. Nevertheless if you stick someone in front Javin at this point don't be disappointed if goes somewhere that values a guy with his talent. There are a lot of teams that would value him. You really can't expectt someone yo wait their turn if you are reserving the right to slide hot shot Johnny come lately in front of them at any time. Im just speaking for me but if K told me in May that he was going to need me to be ready to step up a play a bigger role next year then signed Bagley in August to play ahead of me I'd be pissed. Also I'd challenge you to find A national champion that did not start any upper class men much less rely on numerous upper classmen. Our potential upper classmen for next year are Javin, Jack and Vrank. Let's get Javin ready to be a team captain next year. Again I'm not expecting Bagley to pick Duke but why even flirt?