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  1. #4221
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I would be more enthusiastic about getting another player if they were a solid 3pt shooter, whether he be a SG, SF or "stretch 4". Bagley may in fact be better than any or all of Bolden/Delaurier/Vrank, but it's not like we lack quality players that can be plugged into the frontcourt. We do lack 3pt shooters though. Grayson had a bad year last year, but when he's healthy, he's about as good a 3pt shooter in the NCAA. After him, we've got a lot of unknowns from 3. Jack White took 2 3s last year, making 1. After that, nobody on the team has taken a 3 in college. Duval has a rep as a mediocre 3pt shooter, Trent has a rep as a mediocre to + 3pt shooter. Tucker has a rep as a + 3pt shooter. O'Connell has a rep of being capable of shooting 3s. Goldwire might not play enough for his reputation to really matter. It could turn out that all of Duval, Trent, Tucker, O'Connell and White shoot the 3 at an above-replacement rate (ie., >33%), to complement a (hopefully) >40% shooter in Grayson.
    I'm not advocating that Duke not pursue Bagley, but landing him doesn't change Duke's dynamic as much as landing a high-quality 3pt threat. Of course any one of Bolden/Carter/Javin/Vrank might get injured and not play much/well during the season, and as such, Bagley would be a huge boost.
    What you say may be true, but 2017 recruiting was all but over before this news (re?)appeared. So there wouldn't seem to be a "high-quality 3pt threat" on the market, at least as it relates to next year's roster. In other words, that part of your argument sort of seems a moot point.

    So I'm back to this question: Does Marvin Bagley (III?) give Duke more in his one year than his not being here creates positive developments for others/the program? It's essentially impossible to know the answer. Would a transfer happen that wouldn't have otherwise happen? Would we miss a 2018 recruit because a big man, who otherwise would have, now can't jump to the League? Does it create some sort of sub-culture/chemistry issue on the team where we accepted this super late addition who comes to campus later than others? Etc. Etc. Etc.

    Again, it's nearly impossible to know these answers. But in my humble opinion, at some point you have to play your hand and stop posturing. We may not definitively be at that point right now (hence my 45% number I blurted out above), but we're arguably in the ballpark.

    To me, this is an interesting microcosm of many of our offseason concerns.

    - Chillin

  2. #4222
    If MB3 wants to reclassify and come to Duke, I say come on down. More good basketball players is rarely a bad thing. It probably postpones Javin becoming a rotation player but he often struck me as player who makes his mark as a junior and senior. A three man big rotation of Wendell, Marques and Marvin could be fairly awesome.

  3. #4223
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    What you say may be true, but 2017 recruiting was all but over before this news (re?)appeared. So there wouldn't seem to be a "high-quality 3pt threat" on the market, at least as it relates to next year's roster. In other words, that part of your argument sort of seems a moot point.

    So I'm back to this question: Does Marvin Bagley (III?) give Duke more in his one year than his not being here creates positive developments for others/the program? It's essentially impossible to know the answer. Would a transfer happen that wouldn't have otherwise happen? Would we miss a 2018 recruit because a big man, who otherwise would have, now can't jump to the League? Does it create some sort of sub-culture/chemistry issue on the team where we accepted this super late addition who comes to campus later than others? Etc. Etc. Etc.

    Again, it's nearly impossible to know these answers. But in my humble opinion, at some point you have to play your hand and stop posturing. We may not definitively be at that point right now (hence my 45% number I blurted out above), but we're arguably in the ballpark.

    To me, this is an interesting microcosm of many of our offseason concerns.

    - Chillin
    Yeah, it's really hard to say. IF Bagley comes this year and not next year (and this is making two bold assumptions: first that he will reclassify, and second that he will choose Duke), does that cause more or less risk of transfers? If he comes this year, guys like Vrankovic and DeLaurier become marginalized again. That will be tough for them. But, they were already looking at backup minutes at best (and only really one of them at that). So if Bagley comes next year, there's a chance that they don't get to play much this year OR next year.

    Basically, a lot of unknowns. I'd probably rather do whatever it takes to make this year's team a championship contender to reduce the bad taste in the mouth of last year's UNC national title.

  4. #4224
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Going back to this point, the whole thing is very odd to me. So he essentially has already graduated from HS and was just going to do another year for the fun of it? I'd like to think we take a little more pride in academics than our friends down the road and have made sure that his academics are 100% in order - I don't expect him to be getting a 4.0 in engineering but hopefully he has at least legitimately graduated from HS and has fulfilled all of the basic academic requirements that all enrolling Duke students must fulfill. It is very weird that this whole thing is surfacing so late - why didn't he make this decision months ago? A lot often goes on behind the scenes that we are not aware of, but that does not seem to be the case here.
    Duke will surely be circumspect about this as usual, and if we aren't, the NCAA will be, so I'm sure everything will be above board if he re-classifies.

    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Yeah, I can see the (irresolvable?) Bigger Rotation discussion gathering steam if Bagley joins the party...for example I'm personally hopeful that DeLaurier gets some decent PT this season, regardless of the roster composition.
    A 4-man post rotation would make a lot of sense if Bagley comes. I'd basically just rotate them as pairs a la 2010 (Zoubs-Thomas and MP1-MP2), so Carter-Bagley and Bolden-DeLaurier.

  5. #4225
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    So I'm back to this question: Does Marvin Bagley (III?) give Duke more in his one year than his not being here creates positive developments for others/the program? It's essentially impossible to know the answer.
    While it's impossible to know for sure, I lean heavily towards adding Bagley being a great thing for the program. Rarely is adding a top-5 player in high school (any class) going to be a problem, imo.

    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Would a transfer happen that wouldn't have otherwise happen? Would we miss a 2018 recruit because a big man, who otherwise would have, now can't jump to the League? Does it create some sort of sub-culture/chemistry issue on the team where we accepted this super late addition who comes to campus later than others? Etc. Etc. Etc.
    Of the three questions you list above, I'm only somewhat concerned about the first one (transfer), and Coach K can help himself there by playing a 4-man post rotation.

    I'm not worried about the other two questions. If, for example, taking Bagley means Bolden won't get enough minutes to leave for the draft, I'll gladly take a junior Marques Bolden over a 2018 recruit. And finally, I trust Coach K to have the communication and leadership skills to not allow a late addition to become a chemistry issue. I'm not even sure Bagley would arrive any later than Jack White last season, really. Not all freshmen can come in early July.

  6. #4226
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Duke will surely be circumspect about this as usual, and if we aren't, the NCAA will be, so I'm sure everything will be above board if he re-classifies.
    I would like to think we hold ourselves to a much higher standard than the NCAA. I don't want to take this conversation too far off line, but I would rather lose more games and have basketball players who are at least remotely qualified to be on campus than win national championships with a team of marginal academic qualifiers. As I said above, they don't need to be 4.0 engineers, but they have to be able to keep their heads above water in the classroom with the appropriate support systems helping them - I don't think that is too much to ask. For all I know, Bagley is a future Rhodes Scholar - I am not questioning him personally. Academic standards are just very important to me.

  7. #4227
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I would like to think we hold ourselves to a much higher standard than the NCAA. I don't want to take this conversation too far off line, but I would rather lose more games and have basketball players who are at least remotely qualified to be on campus than win national championships with a team of marginal academic qualifiers. As I said above, they don't need to be 4.0 engineers, but they have to be able to keep their heads above water in the classroom with the appropriate support systems helping them - I don't think that is too much to ask. For all I know, Bagley is a future Rhodes Scholar - I am not questioning him personally. Academic standards are just very important to me.
    Bagley isn't going to be a marginal academic qualifier. He actually DID have a 4.0 GPA at one point and may still do; Duke's long been intrigued by him because of both his basketball talent and academic qualifications. I'm not sure why he's deciding so late to re-classify, but it's not because he can't cut it in the classroom. If I had to guess why, I'd guess he and his father were just really indecisive about the move. Maybe playing in the L.A. Drew League this summer against NBA pros tipped the balance towards re-classifying:


  8. #4228
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    I would like to think we hold ourselves to a much higher standard than the NCAA. I don't want to take this conversation too far off line, but I would rather lose more games and have basketball players who are at least remotely qualified to be on campus than win national championships with a team of marginal academic qualifiers. As I said above, they don't need to be 4.0 engineers, but they have to be able to keep their heads above water in the classroom with the appropriate support systems helping them - I don't think that is too much to ask. For all I know, Bagley is a future Rhodes Scholar - I am not questioning him personally. Academic standards are just very important to me.
    The thing to remember is that many (most?) top athletes are held back a year to allow for more physical development. It has nothing to do with their academic prowess or lack-thereof. In fact, most of those athletes continue taking classes with their true class despite nominally being a grade behind. Both Mason and Miles did this and, by all accounts, they were fantastic students. Glancing at Marvin's Wikipedia page, he's already 18 and so is old enough to have already graduated. Assuming Bagley was held back for athletic reasons at some point, it would not involve any academic compromises at all to reclassify. Instead, it would be similar to what Andre Dawkins and Derrick Thornton did.

  9. #4229
    Bagley's a month older than Wendell, for example.

  10. #4230
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    Utah
    The guys on 24/7 sports (The Devils' Den), John, Adam, Slater, etc. seem to have some insight into the Bagley situation, for those who are interested in the development.

  11. #4231
    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    The thing to remember is that many (most?) top athletes are held back a year to allow for more physical development. It has nothing to do with their academic prowess or lack-thereof. In fact, most of those athletes continue taking classes with their true class despite nominally being a grade behind. Both Mason and Miles did this and, by all accounts, they were fantastic students. Glancing at Marvin's Wikipedia page, he's already 18 and so is old enough to have already graduated. Assuming Bagley was held back for athletic reasons at some point, it would not involve any academic compromises at all to reclassify. Instead, it would be similar to what Andre Dawkins and Derrick Thornton did.
    I agree with everything you've said; however I believe both Dawkins and Thorton had to attend summer school at their respective High Schools to complete their requirements to graduate early (or on time based on their ages if you look at it that way). This is my only concern as to whether or not Bagley has enough time to complete all of HS requirements this late in the summer before colleges start their fall semesters. It just seems awfully late to still be undecided about whether to reclassify or not. With that said, Maybe Bagley has all the credits he need to graduate now and that's why he and and his dad can afford to make a late decision to reclassify. If that is the case; and he chooses Duke, that would be an incredible addition for this year's team.

  12. #4232
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by Class of '94 View Post
    I agree with everything you've said; however I believe both Dawkins and Thorton had to attend summer school at their respective High Schools to complete their requirements to graduate early (or on time based on their ages if you look at it that way). This is my only concern as to whether or not Bagley has enough time to complete all of HS requirements this late in the summer before colleges start their fall semesters. It just seems awfully late to still be undecided about whether to reclassify or not. With that said, Maybe Bagley has all the credits he need to graduate now and that's why he and and his dad can afford to make a late decision to reclassify. If that is the case; and he chooses Duke, that would be an incredible addition for this year's team.
    I understand and even agree with you hesitation/concerns but I remember a comment from Andrew Slater a while back basically saying that he was surprised that Bagley hadn't reclassified which makes me think that it was A) always a possibility and B) probably means that the academics/classes have been already taken into account. Now maybe I'm misinterpreting his comment but much like Barrett is expected to reclassify into 2018, I suspect Bagley has long considered reclassifying into 2017, he just never pulled the trigger and people figured he just wasn't going to.

  13. #4233
    I will admit that even to me this feels like yet another small step in the journey between "student athletes," and "guys who have found a mutually beneficial opportunity to play basketball for Duke, until such time as it is no longer convenient for one or both parties."

    Not the death knell for me for college sports, just another in a series of realizations about how the system is flawed.

  14. #4234
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I will admit that even to me this feels like yet another small step in the journey between "student athletes," and "guys who have found a mutually beneficial opportunity to play basketball for Duke, until such time as it is no longer convenient for one or both parties."

    Not the death knell for me for college sports,
    I don't see Bagley as being an extra step towards something or as being different from the rest of our OADs.

    Bagley is 18 years, 4 months old and is a high school graduate who will play at Duke for 1 season.
    Carter is 18 years, 3 months old and is a high school graduate who will play at Duke for 1 season.

    The only difference is that Bagley made up his mind MUCH later than Carter about when he should be done with high school. (They both have the credits apparently.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    just another in a series of realizations about how the system is flawed.
    Financial advisors would say that the era in the past when guys like Bagley and Carter would stay in school for 4 years were the flawed days. A playing career is short, and players back then were needlessly wasting several earning years in school. I don't necessarily agree with that take, btw, and our own Grant Hill would disagree with that take, based on his recent appearance on Scheyer's podcast. Just saying... beauty and flaw are in the eye of the beholder. If the beholder is a financial advisor...

  15. #4235
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I don't see Bagley as being an extra step towards something or as being different from the rest of our OADs.

    Bagley is 18 years, 4 months old and is a high school graduate who will play at Duke for 1 season.
    Carter is 18 years, 3 months old and is a high school graduate who will play at Duke for 1 season.

    The only difference is that Bagley made up his mind MUCH later than Carter about when he should be done with high school. (They both have the credits apparently.)



    Financial advisors would say that the era in the past when guys like Bagley and Carter would stay in school for 4 years were the flawed days. A playing career is short, and players back then were needlessly wasting several earning years in school. I don't necessarily agree with that take, btw, and our own Grant Hill would disagree with that take, based on his recent appearance on Scheyer's podcast. Just saying... beauty and flaw are in the eye of the beholder. If the beholder is a financial advisor...
    Do you have some info we don't yet?
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  16. #4236
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Do you have some info we don't yet?
    Whoops, I was missing the word "possibly" in there somewhere. And knock on wood!

  17. #4237
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    Las Vegas, Nevada (Ohio born and raised)
    This is a weird discussion to me. If you have the chance to add the best player currently in high school...you do. That's it for me. No year is gurateeed and coach K is getting closer and closer to retirement. If Bagley makes us the favorites to win it all instead of top 15, I'm a happy camper.

  18. #4238
    Quote Originally Posted by Duke95 View Post
    The guys on 24/7 sports (The Devils' Den), John, Adam, Slater, etc. seem to have some insight into the Bagley situation, for those who are interested in the development.
    Care to provide a brief summary? I don't spend any time on that board...

  19. #4239
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    This is a weird discussion to me. If you have the chance to add the best player currently in high school...you do. That's it for me. No year is gurateeed and coach K is getting closer and closer to retirement. If Bagley makes us the favorites to win it all instead of top 15, I'm a happy camper.
    I reluctantly agree with you. At the same time, I put myself in the shoes of Bolden and Vrank - I obviously don't know either of them but root for them for a lot of reasons.

    In theory, there are plenty of minutes available for Bolden ( and some for Vrank). But K just doesn't play that many guys. I'd like to see Bolden get some time and succeed.

    But yeah, you are right. As much as I love Duke basketball, I'm starting to struggle with the one and done era, even at Duke.

  20. #4240
    Jerry Meyer updated his prediction today to Duke. Take it for what he's worth, but he's the lead scout at 247 and usually ranked at the top of their expert board.

    We'll see how it plays out, but I'd be pretty excited if he was on campus come late august...

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