FEARLESS Predictions: 2014-15 Season

[CameronBornAndBred]

In chat, Loran will say that our defense sucks. And that our offense sucks.
During a game that we win by 17.

[jv001]

1) This Winslow kid doesn't look like a freshman. Wow he can really play.
2) Coach K hasn't let USA basketball interfere with his duties as the Duke coach.
3) Marshall Plumlee has come a long way since his freshman year. He'll get consideration for lots of minutes.
4) Jahill Okafor is the real deal. He's going to be a good pro.
5) This Duke team will be as good as Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones are.
6) Look at all that past Duke experience on the bench next to K.
7) And from Len Elmore, the refs didn't see that little push from that Duke player. Should have been called a foul on Duke.

GoDuke!

[roywhite]

If this video from DukeBluePlanet is any indication, the team is serious about conditioning.

Duke Basketball: Summer Work 2014

[kAzE]

If this video from DukeBluePlanet is any indication, the team is serious about conditioning.

Duke Basketball: Summer Work 2014

Oh man, I hope Winslow is allowed to keep his hair. I like it. Have we ever had a player with dreads?

[SoCalDukeFan]

Optimistic

Coach K focuses on getting the most out of the entire team, wins the NC.

Pessimistic

Coach K gets enamored with the frosh, never gets the team to play to potential, loses in 1st or 2nd round.

SoCal

[throatybeard]

In chat, Loran will say that our defense sucks. And that our offense sucks.
During a game that we win by 17.

Asack keeper.

Wait, he doesn't play here anymore? Dang.

[lotusland]

I've already picked the guys I'm rooting hardest for this year:

1. Quinn Cook is proving his doubters wrong by putting together an All ACC Season at PG for Duke
2. Semi Ojeleye has seemingly come from out of nowhere to become a key rotation player and contributor for Duke this year

[Kedsy]

According to many posters on this board:

...this Duke team is either the best team we've ever had or won't get past the first round -- but there's absolutely no chance of anything in between.

Optimistic

Coach K focuses on getting the most out of the entire team, wins the NC.

Pessimistic

Coach K gets enamored with the frosh, never gets the team to play to potential, loses in 1st or 2nd round.

Well, I enjoy being a prophet so soon, but I didn't really expect both extremes in the same post...

[SoCalDukeFan]

Well, I enjoy being a prophet so soon, but I didn't really expect both extremes in the same post...

From all reports the talent is there for a very good team. Coach K is the best. So if the talent works together it should be a very good year.

But, last year's team was certainly more talented than a first round loss to Mercer would indicate. Other teams with frosh stars have also underperformed (they did have injury issues). I think last year style of play got changed to take advantage of Parker and Hood but the change was hard on others to accept or adopt. Will we have strength at the point or a problem as neither gets the minutes they want? Will we emphasize Okafur at the expense of Rasheed?

While I am less optimistic than many on this board, I fully understand that it could be a great season.

SoCal

[Clay Feet POF]

I think the big story will be T Jones and Q Cook playing together. They will be the constant propelling this team. Jones will help Cook have his best year, and T Jones will learn from Quinn experiences. I think assists will skyrocket this year.

[Duke3517]

I think sweet 16 or elite 8 is the most realistic outcome. I like Duke's size this year. Could be a huge year for Jefferson. I wish Duke had that Ryan Kelly or Kyle Singler type player on their team. How do you all feel about Duke's perimeter shooting?

[Kedsy]

How do you all feel about Duke's perimeter shooting?

Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon are going to take a lot of three point shots this season. Last season they combined for 3.1 three-point makes out of 8 three-point attempts (38.6%). This year they'll shoot a lot more. If they keep a similar percentage (or improve), we'll be OK.

[Kedsy]

But, last year's team was certainly more talented than a first round loss to Mercer would indicate.

I get why you (and others) are nervous -- Duke has lost in the first round of the NCAAT in two of the last three seasons. But three seasons isn't much of a sample. If we look at the entirety of Coach K's Duke career, here's what we get:

Total seasons when Duke is ranked in the pre-season top 10: 24

Of those 24 seasons, Duke...

...lost in first round: 2 (2014 and 2012 and never before)
...lost in second round: 3 (1997, 1993, 1985)
...made Sweet 16: 6
...made Elite Eight: 2
...made Final Four: 3
...made Final Two: 3
...won championship: 4
...missed tournament: 1 (1995)

Put another way, in the past 17 seasons, the only seasons when a Duke team ranked in the pre-season top 10 didn't at least make the Sweet 16 were 2012 and 2014. Those seasons were the anomalies, not the norm.

Could we lose in the first round again? Sure, almost anything's possible. But it's not likely. It's certainly not anywhere close to as likely as some people seem to think it is.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I get why you (and others) are nervous -- Duke has lost in the first round of the NCAAT in two of the last three seasons. But three seasons isn't much of a sample. If we look at the entirety of Coach K's Duke career, here's what we get:

Total seasons when Duke is ranked in the pre-season top 10: 24

Of those 24 seasons, Duke...

...lost in first round: 2 (2014 and 2012 and never before)
...lost in second round: 3 (1997, 1993, 1985)
...made Sweet 16: 6
...made Elite Eight: 2
...made Final Four: 3
...made Final Two: 3
...won championship: 4
...missed tournament: 1 (1995)

Put another way, in the past 17 seasons, the only seasons when a Duke team ranked in the pre-season top 10 didn't at least make the Sweet 16 were 2012 and 2014. Those seasons were the anomalies, not the norm.

Could we lose in the first round again? Sure, almost anything's possible. But it's not likely. It's certainly not anywhere close to as likely as some people seem to think it is.

You are right and believe me I think Coach K is probably the best college basketball coach of all time. We are very lucky that he has been at Duke. And its more than the wins.

But the wins were not done with one and dones as primary players. Christian Laettner said or tweeted after the Mercer game which he did not see as he was in an airplane something like -"Coach K's defense takes more than a year to learn."

HOWEVER I think Coach K is very competitive and will make adjustments when he sees them as necessary.

SoCal

[uh_no]

I get why you (and others) are nervous -- Duke has lost in the first round of the NCAAT in two of the last three seasons. But three seasons isn't much of a sample. If we look at the entirety of Coach K's Duke career, here's what we get:

Total seasons when Duke is ranked in the pre-season top 10: 24

Of those 24 seasons, Duke...

...lost in first round: 2 (2014 and 2012 and never before)
...lost in second round: 3 (1997, 1993, 1985)
...made Sweet 16: 6
...made Elite Eight: 2
...made Final Four: 3
...made Final Two: 3
...won championship: 4
...missed tournament: 1 (1995)

Put another way, in the past 17 seasons, the only seasons when a Duke team ranked in the pre-season top 10 didn't at least make the Sweet 16 were 2012 and 2014. Those seasons were the anomalies, not the norm.

Could we lose in the first round again? Sure, almost anything's possible. But it's not likely. It's certainly not anywhere close to as likely as some people seem to think it is.

while what you say is true, there's hardly enough data to 2 of the last 3 years constitutes a temporary deviation from the norm, or a downward trend. It's impossible to know.

personally I think it is a new trend, and NOT because "K has slipped" or some bull like that. The fact is that the high player turnover in this era lends itself to higher program variability from year to year. In fact I think the fact that K's teams have still be constantly rated so highly (top 10 streak) is a testament to K's ability to continue to coach in the era...IT's just that we can't expect 7 final fours in 9 years...I'm not sure those kind of numbers will EVER be matched , let alone by K. Not to mentin, in 2 of the past 4 years, we've been seriously marred by injury troubles which no doubt inhibited last season performance (kyrie and ryan)

speaking of tredy-ness, I want to recall last year and our defensive efficiency throughout the season...After a couple of good performances in february, I think it was you (and apologies if it wasn't) who claimed that a couple good performances on D indicated an upward trend, and I urged caution lest it be an anomaly. It took the rest of the season to really establish that it was anomolous. I think the same caution needs to be applied here. It will take the next 3-5 years to really establish how much the past few years do or do not indicate a trend.

[Kedsy]

But the wins were not done with one and dones as primary players. Christian Laettner said or tweeted after the Mercer game which he did not see as he was in an airplane something like -"Coach K's defense takes more than a year to learn."

Number of freshmen in Duke's top 7 minute-getters, selected seasons:

2014: 1
2013: 1
2012: 1
2011: 0*
2010: 1
2004: 1
2001: 1
1999: 1
1994: 1
1992: 1
1991: 1
1990: 1
1989: 1
1988: 0
1986: 1

* would have been 1 if Kyrie hadn't gotten hurt.

First, I realize most of the freshmen alluded to here weren't "one and dones," but for the purposes of whether or not a player knows Duke's defense, I can't see how a freshman who later turns out to stay beyond his freshman year is any different from a one-and-done, at least during that player's freshman season.

Second, some people seem to count Rodney Hood as a one-and-done, but he clearly wasn't. He not only played a year in college before he transferred, he also practiced Duke's defense for an entire year before playing this past season.

Third, I realize none of the above teams necessarily have a direct bearing on the 2014-15 team, since our upcoming season will probably feature 3 freshmen in our top 7 minute-getters -- perhaps it would be more appropriate to compare to the 2007 team (3 freshmen in top 7) or the 1998 team (2 freshmen in top 7 plus Elton Brand who would have been among the top 7 if he hadn't gotten hurt). Of course using those two teams wouldn't be that helpful, either, since the 2007 team lost in the first round and the 1998 team made the Elite Eight. Certainly no consensus there.

My point is simply this: 10 of Duke's 11 Final Four teams under Coach K had the exact same number of freshmen in our top 7 minute-getters as the 2012 and 2014 teams did. In other words, the "wins were done" with just as many freshmen among our top 7 as the embarrassing losses.

Blaming the one-and-dones is convenient, but I don't think accurate.

[uh_no]

Number of freshmen in Duke's top 7 minute-getters, selected seasons:

2014: 1
2013: 1
2012: 1
2011: 0*
2010: 1
2004: 1
2001: 1
1999: 1
1994: 1
1992: 1
1991: 1
1990: 1
1989: 1
1988: 0
1986: 1

5 year rolling count of freshman top 7 minute getters (i think the chart would be even more egregious counting top 5 or top 3 in minutes...so we should probably just look at average freshman minutes to avoid using an arbitrary distinction at number of players...but anyway):

1990: 3
1991: 3
1992: 4
1993: 3
1994: 4
1995: 3
1996: 2
1997: 1
1998: 1
1999: 1
2000: 1
2001: 2
2002: 2
2003: 2
2004: 2
2005: 2
2006: 1
2007: 1
2008: 1
2009: 0
2010: 1
2011: 2
2012: 3
2013: 4
2014: 5
2015: 6 (projected, with okafor and jones)

so what we see here is that the past 5 year stretch has seen the most consistent use of freshmen likely ever, and by far the most since the early '90s. Further, in the old days, a lot of those freshmen players went on to become phenomenal upper classmen...often POY players while they were in college . for instance, last year, yeah we only started 1 freshman, but in the old days, Kyrie would have been a senior on that team...I that would have made a difference in our perimeter defense and pressure situation offense.

freshman can certainly an issue, but just as big of an issue is turnover...and I would contend the players surrounding freshmen aren't as good as they were when top guys could stay a few years. The top guys go, and that's pretty much what the chart shows...incoming freshman are on par with older guys on the team, hence consistently seeing top playing time now more than at any time in the K era...are incoming players more prepared to compete at this level? are upperclassmen not as good as they used to be? I suspect it's a little of both...more good players leave early, and nobody can jump straight to the NBA anymore...in fact, that might be supported by the data...

in the early 90's, most players went to college and stayed a few years...even NBA ready guys...so you would expect to see guys ready to contribute...then in the late 90's and early '00s, elite guys could jump straight, but players at college would usually stay a couple years at least..leaving less room for the lesser talented incoming frosh...now in the late '00, good players come and stay for 1 year...leading to higher minutes for frosh again...would be interesting to see if there's any nationwide trend

[Kedsy]

5 year rolling count of freshman top 7 minute getters (i think the chart would be even more egregious counting top 5 or top 3 in minutes...so we should probably just look at average freshman minutes to avoid using an arbitrary distinction at number of players...but anyway):

I don't understand your chart. For the five years ending in 2007, for example, we had 9 freshmen among our top 7 minute-getters (3 in 2007; 2 in 2006; 1 in 2005; 1 in 2004; and 2 in 2003). But your chart says 1. What am I missing?

[uh_no]

I don't understand your chart. For the five years ending in 2007, for example, we had 9 freshmen among our top 7 minute-getters (3 in 2007; 2 in 2006; 1 in 2005; 1 in 2004; and 2 in 2003). But your chart says 1. What am I missing?

i was confused by your chart

i had assumed the non-listed years were 0.

[Henderson]

I was thinking this morning (shocking, I know!) about the upcoming team. I got to wondering what would be common things we can expect to hear from the TV announcers during games.

*****

In the form or 'Things broadcasters say when calling a Duke basketball game,' what are your fearless predictions for the year?

I predict some TV announcers are going to say, "Well, I thought X about Duke, but having seen the obscure statistics trotted out by certain DBR posters and the passion with which they defend and reinforce those statistics, I've completely changed my mind. I no longer care about what happens on the court. I just want historical statistics from now on."