Andre Dawkins makes the Heat!

[Kedsy]

You've been vocal on the board about the importance of Andre moving without the ball. He was better about that as a senior, but for whatever reason he definitely tailed off in that regard in the back half of the year. Is that something he will ever bring consistently? I unfortunately have my doubts at this point.

The most important point, in my mind, regarding Andre's ability to get to the League is how much effort is he willing to put in. Clearly, he had an excuse (or at least a reason) for his inconsistency in this area during his first three seasons. Presumably this was much less of a factor his last year at Duke but he still seemed to fade in and out. Obviously, if he wants to make it in the NBA he has to really want it.

I'd say the fact that he chose to participate in both summer leagues is a promising sign in this regard. Obviously only time will tell.

[sagegrouse]

No, I see it. I guess I just didn't think the table you put up told us much. I mean, everything you say in this response is true, but for every point you raise there is a counter. For example, while Andre played against high-major competition, he didn't play enough or shoot enough to qualify on the national leaderboard. That says something. You might say it's that K didn't play him enough--and I'd agree with you--but the fact remains that guys who make it in the NBA, even at the end of the bench, generally played a lot more in college than Andre did. Likewise, while Andre has decent size and athleticism compared to the Salim Stoudamires and Seth Currys of the world, he also has a much narrower skillset. (Your point that Stoudamire actually stuck around a little while in the NBA is well-taken, though.) You've been vocal on the board about the importance of Andre moving without the ball. He was better about that as a senior, but for whatever reason he definitely tailed off in that regard in the back half of the year. Is that something he will ever bring consistently? I unfortunately have my doubts at this point. I really want Andre to succeed at the highest level. I just can't shake the feeling that, despite his terrible luck, he would have made a deeper statistical imprint in his time at Duke if he was going to end up making the most competitive sports league on Planet Earth.

Kedsy may be right that Andre has a better skill-set for the NBA than Seth. But I waited five years for Andre to become a consistent performer at Duke, and I don't intend to waste much emotional energy waiting for him to succeed in the League.

[Henderson]

Kedsy may be right that Andre has a better skill-set for the NBA than Seth. But I waited five years for Andre to become a consistent performer at Duke, and I don't intend to waste much emotional energy waiting for him to succeed in the League.

Agree. There was a reason Andre wasn't finding minutes for big sections of last season. If your only demonstrated skill is that of a spot-up shooter, you have to be good and consistent. You can't have your shot disappear for long stretches. Not if you aren't also capable at a high level of creating shots, driving the lane, defending, or rebounding. I love Dre, but I don't see him finding PT in the NBA. Seth is a bit more interesting, because he moves well without the ball, works screens to find his shot, drives the lane, and is a serviceable defender. He doesn't have Dre's body or some of Dre's stats, but he isn't a one-dimensional player. And K wanted him on the court. Dre not so much last year. That tells me quite a bit.

[Kedsy]

And K wanted him on the court. Dre not so much last year. That tells me quite a bit.

Like I said in an earlier post. Seth's last year at Duke we only had four perimeter players (Seth, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler) for three positions. Andre had to compete with those same three guys plus Rodney Hood (plus, to a lesser extent, Matt Jones). So obviously there were other factors leading to K's playing-time decisions.

If Rodney hadn't been on last year's team, I suspect Andre would have played almost as much (or the same as) Seth did in his last year. In other words, the fact that Seth played more in 2013 than Andre played in 2014 probably shouldn't tell you as much as it seems to.

[Henderson]

Like I said in an earlier post. Seth's last year at Duke we only had four perimeter players (Seth, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler) for three positions. Andre had to compete with those same three guys plus Rodney Hood (plus, to a lesser extent, Matt Jones). So obviously there were other factors leading to K's playing-time decisions.

If Rodney hadn't been on last year's team, I suspect Andre would have played almost as much (or the same as) Seth did in his last year. In other words, the fact that Seth played more in 2013 than Andre played in 2014 probably shouldn't tell you as much as it seems to.

Maybe. But I remember during last season when some folks on here were clamoring for more Dre PT, I was looking at his stats for the previous few games and thinking, "Why?". There were multiple games where K would put him in, not get anything, and pull him out. He just wasn't getting it done. And by "it" I mean draining 3s reliably, because that was what his game had become. If I noticed that and K noticed that, I doubt NBA GMs missed it. I read one report of an NBA tryout in which Dre was described as taking a lot of shots, not making a high percentage, and not finding open team mates as an alternative. I can't tell you how much I admire Dre and hope he succeeds at a very high level. I'm just being descriptive and realistic.

[SupaDave]

Agree. There was a reason Andre wasn't finding minutes for big sections of last season. If your only demonstrated skill is that of a spot-up shooter, you have to be good and consistent. You can't have your shot disappear for long stretches. Not if you aren't also capable at a high level of creating shots, driving the lane, defending, or rebounding. I love Dre, but I don't see him finding PT in the NBA. Seth is a bit more interesting, because he moves well without the ball, works screens to find his shot, drives the lane, and is a serviceable defender. He doesn't have Dre's body or some of Dre's stats, but he isn't a one-dimensional player. And K wanted him on the court. Dre not so much last year. That tells me quite a bit.

Actually in our last game of the year this year, if Dre had gotten hot, he would have easily had a 20 point game b/c he was given ample opportunities to shoot (blanked on 5 shots in 7 minutes).

[Henderson]

Actually in our last game of the year this year, if Dre had gotten hot, he would have easily had a 20 point game b/c he was given ample opportunities to shoot (blanked on 5 shots in 7 minutes).

We were down, and we needed points desperately. K took a chance. Didn't work out, because... well, because he blanked on 5 shots in 7 minutes. Hence my point.

[Des Esseintes]

The most important point, in my mind, regarding Andre's ability to get to the League is how much effort is he willing to put in. Clearly, he had an excuse (or at least a reason) for his inconsistency in this area during his first three seasons. Presumably this was much less of a factor his last year at Duke but he still seemed to fade in and out. Obviously, if he wants to make it in the NBA he has to really want it.

I'd say the fact that he chose to participate in both summer leagues is a promising sign in this regard. Obviously only time will tell.

Fully agree.

[vick]

Maybe. But I remember during last season when some folks on here were clamoring for more Dre PT, I was looking at his stats for the previous few games and thinking, "Why?". There were multiple games where K would put him in, not get anything, and pull him out. He just wasn't getting it done. And by "it" I mean draining 3s reliably, because that was what his game had become. If I noticed that and K noticed that, I doubt NBA GMs missed it. I read one report of an NBA tryout in which Dre was described as taking a lot of shots, not making a high percentage, and not finding open team mates as an alternative. I can't tell you how much I admire Dre and hope he succeeds at a very high level. I'm just being descriptive and realistic.

So, I agree with those who say the odds are against Dawkins making the league because, hey, it's a tough league, but do you really think inability to hit threes reliably was what was getting him taken out of the game? Statistically, by practically any metric (e.g. PER) he was one of our better offensive players all of last year on a per-minute basis. The "shot disappearing" stuff is pretty much classic "fooled by randomness" and I doubt competent NBA GMs will be swayed by that.

[Reilly]

... Here are the eFG% NCAA leaders from this past season ... Zikiteran Woodley .635 ...

Not to get off-topic ...

I would like to explore Zikiteran Woodley's eFG% a bit more and go inside the numbers. Should I start a new thread?

And in h.s. ... Jesus H ... 3,835 h.s. points ... doesn't anybody guard anymore ...

http://www.nsudemons.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=2949

[jimsumner]

Sure he does Jim but at the same time he's got a few intangibles that Curry didn't have in his favor such as height, weight, and strength. For Dre it's all about landing with the right team. The Lakers would have given him the ball every possession last season. If he works for it, and he just may then he could tap levels of his game we haven't seen bc sometimes the NBA just does that for some players.

The NBA doesn't care about accolades when they are staffing their teams for the future.and for the record, Dre is a national champion and in many people's eyes around here an MVP. He's hasn't shown JJ type resilience yet but then again he came back to high level college basketball after a year off even though there were few chances to be featured - and he got his for the most part.

In the NBA - you got 24 seconds. Not a whole lot of defensive sets go down in that time. With Dre's quick release and a good showing this summer and I think we see Dre on a squad. (for the record, I was right about Lance too when no one gave him a shot). In the NBA, you gotta be ready, Dre is like Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench (now I'm a tad bit carried away here but you get it)...

Wouldn't height, weight and strength be tangibles? You can measure those. Curry, IMO, has a big edge on Dawkins in true intangibles, basketball IQ, work ethic, competiveness. Phil Henderson, Kevin Strickland, Thomas Hill and Jeff Capel were athletic players in the 6-4, 6-5 range. All were effective 3-point shooters at Duke and all were substantially better than Dawkins in college. And not one ever played a second in the NBA. Tommy Amaker, Chris Carrawell, Jon Scheyer. All NBA no-shows.

For all of his alleged height, weight and strength advantages, Dawkins was never more than a role player at Duke, usually off the bench. On a team crying out for veteran leadership and production, Duke's fifth-year senior never could leverage those advantages into a starting role.

If Andre Dawkins was an NBA prospect, don't you think he should have played ahead of Tyler Thornton?

The narrative from Duke on Dawkins coming into the season was that his off-season workouts had been concentrated on improving his liabilities. He was going to get to the rim off the bounce, get tough rebounds in traffic, engage defensively.

None of that happened.

I don't mean to minimize the personal tragedy he endured. But the NBA is a business and, Isaiah Austin notwithstanding, there's not a lot of sentiment in the NBA. By NBA standards, he's a small wing guard with average athleticism. Dawkins has work to do get the next level, a lot of work to do. I hope he makes it. But it is not going to be easy.

[Dukehky]

Sure he does Jim but at the same time he's got a few intangibles that Curry didn't have in his favor such as height, weight, and strength. For Dre it's all about landing with the right team. The Lakers would have given him the ball every possession last season. If he works for it, and he just may then he could tap levels of his game we haven't seen bc sometimes the NBA just does that for some players.

The NBA doesn't care about accolades when they are staffing their teams for the future.and for the record, Dre is a national champion and in many people's eyes around here an MVP. He's hasn't shown JJ type resilience yet but then again he came back to high level college basketball after a year off even though there were few chances to be featured - and he got his for the most part.

In the NBA - you got 24 seconds. Not a whole lot of defensive sets go down in that time. With Dre's quick release and a good showing this summer and I think we see Dre on a squad. (for the record, I was right about Lance too when no one gave him a shot). In the NBA, you gotta be ready, Dre is like Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench (now I'm a tad bit carried away here but you get it)...

I think that those are tangible things.

I know Dre can shoot, but if he was such a great shooter, he would not have gone through games in college with DNP's. Some people just aren't good enough to play in the NBA and I think Andre falls under that category.

I hope to God he proves me wrong, and I think my posting record here has shown nothing but support for Dre and his shot throughout his years here. In fact during in game threads I often say that I don't want him to ever pass the ball, just jack it up once he gets it. He's my favorite player since Redick. But thinking he has a good shot at getting onto an NBA roster is unrealistic. Trajan Langdon was a GREAT shooter and better player for Duke than Dre was and he didn't stick, but had a great professional basketball career. If hoops is how Dre wants to make his living, I think it is going to be somewhere else.

[MCFinARL]

Wouldn't height, weight and strength be tangibles? You can measure those. Curry, IMO, has a big edge on Dawkins in true intangibles, basketball IQ, work ethic, competiveness. Phil Henderson, Kevin Strickland, Thomas Hill and Jeff Capel were athletic players in the 6-4, 6-5 range. All were effective 3-point shooters at Duke and all were substantially better than Dawkins in college. And not one ever played a second in the NBA. Tommy Amaker, Chris Carrawell, Jon Scheyer. All NBA no-shows.

For all of his alleged height, weight and strength advantages, Dawkins was never more than a role player at Duke, usually off the bench. On a team crying out for veteran leadership and production, Duke's fifth-year senior never could leverage those advantages into a starting role.

If Andre Dawkins was an NBA prospect, don't you think he should have played ahead of Tyler Thornton?

The narrative from Duke on Dawkins coming into the season was that his off-season workouts had been concentrated on improving his liabilities. He was going to get to the rim off the bounce, get tough rebounds in traffic, engage defensively.

None of that happened.


I don't mean to minimize the personal tragedy he endured. But the NBA is a business and, Isaiah Austin notwithstanding, there's not a lot of sentiment in the NBA. By NBA standards, he's a small wing guard with average athleticism. Dawkins has work to do get the next level, a lot of work to do. I hope he makes it. But it is not going to be easy.

Generally speaking, I think you make good points. But I think it's too simple to say Andre would have played ahead of Tyler if he were an NBA prospect. Playing time decisions in college, and maybe especially at Duke, are not based solely on NBA potential, but on how well the players fit into what the college coach and team are trying to do. Tyler's ability to understand what Coach K wanted to see on the court and to channel the toughness and focus Coach K likes often earned him playing time ahead of more physically talented players.

I also disagree, at least a little bit, with your conclusion that "none of that happened." I think all of it happened to some extent--Andre drove to the basket more, rebounded more, played better defense overall than in previous seasons. He didn't magically transform himself into a different player than he had been before, and thus the extent to which he improved these parts of his game were not enough to earn him more playing time against the stiff competition he faced. But he did improve.

I don't disagree that Andre's making an NBA roster is a long shot, and that he will have to work very hard to get that chance (and even if he does work hard, that probably won't be enough--as someone else pointed out earlier, hardly anyone makes the NBA). But ultimately it will depend more on what he can do in summer league, and what any particular teams may be looking for, than it will on what he did or didn't do in college.

[ice-9]

Dawkins is a better athlete than Curry, true, but the problem is that his athleticism doesn't help his game.

Dawkins doesn't dribble well enough to penetrate, so his ability to dunk the ball doesn't matter much. He's also a bad defender, so his athleticism hasn't helped there either. Dawkins is pretty much just a shooter and athleticism doesn't count for as much when that's your main skill set.

[CDu]

Dawkins is a better athlete than Curry, true, but the problem is that his athleticism doesn't help his game.

Dawkins doesn't dribble well enough to penetrate, so his ability to dunk the ball doesn't matter much. He's also a bad defender, so his athleticism hasn't helped there either. Dawkins is pretty much just a shooter and athleticism doesn't count for as much when that's your main skill set.

This is all true, but I think that those in support of Dawkins would say that the athleticism allows for a higher ceiling than Curry. The problem is that Dawkins' floor is probably lower than Curry's as well.

I think it's fair to say that Dawkins has one attribute (really good shooting) that NBA folks like. He has physical attributes that might allow him to do enough other stuff to carve out a role based around that one skill. But as of yet, he's never shown any of those other attributes to make his one skill a valuable piece on the court (hence he's been beaten out for PT by lesser players throughout his career).

If Dawkins is willing to put in the work on his ballhandling, focus, and (especially) his defense, he could find a place in the NBA. But based on what he's done over his 5 years at Duke (and yes, there are extenuating circumstances for sure) and during his pre-draft workouts (which didn't go well), it doesn't look promising right now. It could happen, but it's all on him to put in a LOT of work to make it happen.

[jimsumner]

Generally speaking, I think you make good points. But I think it's too simple to say Andre would have played ahead of Tyler if he were an NBA prospect. Playing time decisions in college, and maybe especially at Duke, are not based solely on NBA potential, but on how well the players fit into what the college coach and team are trying to do. Tyler's ability to understand what Coach K wanted to see on the court and to channel the toughness and focus Coach K likes often earned him playing time ahead of more physically talented players.

I also disagree, at least a little bit, with your conclusion that "none of that happened." I think all of it happened to some extent--Andre drove to the basket more, rebounded more, played better defense overall than in previous seasons. He didn't magically transform himself into a different player than he had been before, and thus the extent to which he improved these parts of his game were not enough to earn him more playing time against the stiff competition he faced. But he did improve.

I don't disagree that Andre's making an NBA roster is a long shot, and that he will have to work very hard to get that chance (and even if he does work hard, that probably won't be enough--as someone else pointed out earlier, hardly anyone makes the NBA). But ultimately it will depend more on what he can do in summer league, and what any particular teams may be looking for, than it will on what he did or didn't do in college.

Andre Dawkins attempted 189 field goals last season. 152 were three pointers. He went to the foul line 37 times in 33 games. This does not suggest a player who drove to the rim very often.

Doesn't your suggestion that Thornton played ahead of Dawkins because the former better understood the system and played with more toughness and focus rather support my concerns about Dawkins?

Dawkins played 453 minutes last season. That's the smallest total of his career. He played 778 in 2011, when competition on the wing included Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry and Kyrie Irving, for a portion of the season. Tyler Thornton played 337 minutes that season. Three years later, Thornton had more than doubled his PT, while Dawkins had seen a precipitous drop.

That lack of improvement doesn't bode well for a long and prosperous NBA career. Again, IMO, if Dawkins is going to make the NBA he's going to have to work his derriere off and show improvement in darn near every area of his game.

[superdave]

See the April 18th entry regarding Dawkins workout at the Portsmouth invitational: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andre-Dawkins-5733/

[MCFinARL]

Andre Dawkins attempted 189 field goals last season. 152 were three pointers. He went to the foul line 37 times in 33 games. This does not suggest a player who drove to the rim very often.

Doesn't your suggestion that Thornton played ahead of Dawkins because the former better understood the system and played with more toughness and focus rather support my concerns about Dawkins?

Dawkins played 453 minutes last season. That's the smallest total of his career. He played 778 in 2011, when competition on the wing included Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry and Kyrie Irving, for a portion of the season. Tyler Thornton played 337 minutes that season. Three years later, Thornton had more than doubled his PT, while Dawkins had seen a precipitous drop.

That lack of improvement doesn't bode well for a long and prosperous NBA career. Again, IMO, if Dawkins is going to make the NBA he's going to have to work his derriere off and show improvement in darn near every area of his game.

You obviously are more of an expert than I am (as I am not any kind of an expert when it comes to basketball), and I am obviously a Dawkins homer. So I can't objectively disagree that you are probably right about all of this. And I absolutely agree that there is no evidence, at this point, to suggest a "long and prosperous" NBA career for Dawkins; I was more arguing that there is still a chance, if he can perform very well in these summer leagues, that he might get a shot as a role player on a roster at the beginning of the season--not a big chance, but a chance.

The rest of our disagreement may be mostly semantic. Re Andre's improvement, it's just a question of degree--granted, statistics don't demonstrate dramatic improvement in terms of impact, but the eye test did, I think, show some improvement in all of the areas you mentioned, including focus. I won't argue that Dawkins is a great defender, but given the generally weak and disorganized defense of the whole team, I'm not sure we can clearly say he wasn't any better than previously--and occasionally in the early season, IIRC, Coach K explicitly mentioned his defense. (Can't swear to that.) And I won't argue, certainly, that whatever improvement he demonstrated was enough to get him to the NBA. Maybe I am just reacting to the rather negative tone of your initial comment--he needed to improve and he didn't--that seemed to suggest some failure of character, though that may not be what you intended, and it seemed too absolute. I think he did improve, at least a bit--but maybe that and $1.50 will get me (and him) a cup of coffee.

Re Tyler, I agree your argument is a reasonable interpretation and may well be right (although better understanding and fitting into Coach K's system isn't necessarily the same thing as better understanding and fitting into every system). But I also think there is another reasonable interpretation, particularly given the unique circumstances of Andre's career--the issues he dealt with and the fact that he was out of basketball altogether for a year before coming back last season. Under those circumstances, and particularly with the addition of Parker and Hood, who had explicitly been given the reins of the team and who both expected to handle the ball, drive and make jumpers at various times, it's not surprising that Dawkins saw fewer minutes, nor that he had relatively few opportunities to drive to the rim. Who knows what might have happened if he had resolved his issues earlier and played in 2013, or even if he had been able to play last season coming off a year of redshirting in practice rather than away from the team? He might have been a lot better prepared to earn more minutes.

Bottom line, though, as I said upthread, I just hope he plays well enough in the summer leagues to get a good chance to play somewhere; I'm certainly not counting on that being the NBA.

[Kedsy]

That lack of improvement doesn't bode well for a long and prosperous NBA career.

Minutes are doled out for a variety of reasons (especially at Duke). But if you look at tempo-free, minute-independent statistics, Andre Dawkins showed significant improvement in his last season over his previous seasons.

His PER his first three years was 13.3, 15.7, and 13.4. His PER his final Duke season was 22.5, a huge improvement over his second best Duke season. Similarly, Andre in 2013-14 had career bests (by a sizable margin over his second best showing) in defensive rebounding percentage, assist percentage, steal percentage, block percentage, usage percentage, turnover percentage, and win shares per 40.

I have no idea whether those improvements will continue or whether they'll be enough to get him to the NBA. And I agree with those who say he has to work his butt off if he wants a chance. But it's both unfair and untrue to say he showed little or no improvement his last season at Duke.

[gwlaw99]

Andre should play for the Sixers this summer. That team has no shooting at all. By the way, Seth is playing for Orlando.