Andre Dawkins makes the Heat!

[geraldsneighbor]

Just read on twitter that Andre will play for both Miami and Houston in the upcoming Summer Leagues. Miami participates in the Orlando edition while Houston is in Las Vegas, I believe. Both are tremendous situations for Andre. If Dre is able to make the team in Miami and Ray Allen returns he would be a great mentor for Andre, who has always looked up to Allen. Have to imagine wherever he ends up that jump shot has a chance to be a weapon for a long time to come.

[Henderson]

1. I hope he's getting paid for this:
2. I hope he's got representation that is working the overseas hotlines; and
3. I hope his representation is being honest with him.

I love 'Dre, but the NBA seems like a stretch at this point. I hope I'm wrong.

[SupaDave]

1. I hope he's getting paid for this:
2. I hope he's got representation that is working the overseas hotlines; and
3. I hope his representation is being honest with him.

I love 'Dre, but the NBA seems like a stretch at this point. I hope I'm wrong.

After Lance and Shavlik (and even Nolan, J-Dub, and Jon) you would think that folks would give him a shot...

[jimsumner]

After Lance and Shavlik (and even Nolan, J-Dub, and Jon) you would think that folks would give him a shot...

I'm not sure I see the connection between Dawkins and the 2011 ACC Player of the Year. Why would the fact that a consensus first-team All-American couldn't last more than two years in the NBA (hopefully that will change) be a good sign for a player who never averaged even nine ppg in college?

Lance Thomas might be a useful analog. Thomas was willing to woodshed in the NBDL, work on his game, persevere and improve. And he had a shot in the league but couldn't leverage that into a long-term career. Note that Thomas ended his college career starting on an NCAA title team. Unlike Dawkins.

Can Dawkins show the same work ethic and ability to improve? I hope this doesn't come across as harsh, but right now he's an undersized two who can't defend, pass, dribble or rebound at anything approaching an NBA level. Being an occasionally transcendent 3-point shooter is nice and all but that couldn't keep Seth Curry in the NBA last season and Curry was a much better college player than was Dawkins.

So, he's got a lot of work to do. A lot.

[SupaDave]

I'm not sure I see the connection between Dawkins and the 2011 ACC Player of the Year. Why would the fact that a consensus first-team All-American couldn't last more than two years in the NBA (hopefully that will change) be a good sign for a player who never averaged even nine ppg in college?

Lance Thomas might be a useful analog. Thomas was willing to woodshed in the NBDL, work on his game, persevere and improve. And he had a shot in the league but couldn't leverage that into a long-term career. Note that Thomas ended his college career starting on an NCAA title team. Unlike Dawkins.

Can Dawkins show the same work ethic and ability to improve? I hope this doesn't come across as harsh, but right now he's an undersized two who can't defend, pass, dribble or rebound at anything approaching an NBA level. Being an occasionally transcendent 3-point shooter is nice and all but that couldn't keep Seth Curry in the NBA last season and Curry was a much better college player than was Dawkins.

So, he's got a lot of work to do. A lot.

Sure he does Jim but at the same time he's got a few intangibles that Curry didn't have in his favor such as height, weight, and strength. For Dre it's all about landing with the right team. The Lakers would have given him the ball every possession last season. If he works for it, and he just may then he could tap levels of his game we haven't seen bc sometimes the NBA just does that for some players.

The NBA doesn't care about accolades when they are staffing their teams for the future.and for the record, Dre is a national champion and in many people's eyes around here an MVP. He's hasn't shown JJ type resilience yet but then again he came back to high level college basketball after a year off even though there were few chances to be featured - and he got his for the most part.

In the NBA - you got 24 seconds. Not a whole lot of defensive sets go down in that time. With Dre's quick release and a good showing this summer and I think we see Dre on a squad. (for the record, I was right about Lance too when no one gave him a shot). In the NBA, you gotta be ready, Dre is like Carmelo Anthony coming off the bench (now I'm a tad bit carried away here but you get it)...

[CDu]

I am going to agree with Jim on this one. Anything can happen. But Dawkins has a lot of work to do to get meaningful NBA minutes. The list of guys who have played in the summer leagues that never sniffed the league is pretty extensive. I wish him the best, but I am not overly optimistic.

[awhom111]

1. I hope he's getting paid for this:
2. I hope he's got representation that is working the overseas hotlines; and
3. I hope his representation is being honest with him.

I love 'Dre, but the NBA seems like a stretch at this point. I hope I'm wrong.

The NBA is a stretch for all but about 30-40 American players who went through the draft. Pretty much everywhere had Andre as just outside the draft in terms of prospect rankings with one or two pegging at the end of the draft. He had plenty of workout opportunities. It seems like there are at least a few NBA teams that at least want to see what he can do, which is all you can ask for.

After Lance and Shavlik (and even Nolan, J-Dub, and Jon) you would think that folks would give him a shot...

I always go for optimism until I have reasons not to be. That Andre got invites from enough teams to play in both summer leagues means that he will have all of the opportunities to either prove himself or not.

Hopefully the summer league experience will give him some exposure that will attract some solid international opportunities if an NBA/NBDL opportunity doesn't pan out.

Re Henderson's earlier post--obviously, I don't know the quality of Andre's representation. But Andre is smart, and he has navigated through some tough times. I would be very surprised if he could be sold a bill of goods by a dishonest or incompetent agent. I'm sure he wants to play in the NBA, but I am also pretty confident that if that isn't going to happen, he will be realistic enough to find another opportunity.

That's the key. The Las Vegas Summer League in particular is scouted by pretty much every league that can afford to go. If Andre does not get a training camp invite, he can still show something to coaches and scouts from around the world.

Andre's listed agent appears to be the same guy as Lance Thomas has. He has at least one NBA client and overseas players at a variety of levels around the globe.

[g-money]

Can Dawkins show the same work ethic and ability to improve? I hope this doesn't come across as harsh, but right now he's an undersized two who can't defend, pass, dribble or rebound at anything approaching an NBA level. Being an occasionally transcendent 3-point shooter is nice and all but that couldn't keep Seth Curry in the NBA last season and Curry was a much better college player than was Dawkins.

So, he's got a lot of work to do. A lot.

So you're saying he's the next Jeff Hornacek? John Paxson? Craig Hodges? I think Andre could live with that.

[JNort]

I'm not sure I see the connection between Dawkins and the 2011 ACC Player of the Year. Why would the fact that a consensus first-team All-American couldn't last more than two years in the NBA (hopefully that will change) be a good sign for a player who never averaged even nine ppg in college?

Lance Thomas might be a useful analog. Thomas was willing to woodshed in the NBDL, work on his game, persevere and improve. And he had a shot in the league but couldn't leverage that into a long-term career. Note that Thomas ended his college career starting on an NCAA title team. Unlike Dawkins.

Can Dawkins show the same work ethic and ability to improve? I hope this doesn't come across as harsh, but right now he's an undersized two who can't defend, pass, dribble or rebound at anything approaching an NBA level. Being an occasionally transcendent 3-point shooter is nice and all but that couldn't keep Seth Curry in the NBA last season and Curry was a much better college player than was Dawkins.

So, he's got a lot of work to do. A lot.

Well Dre has way more going for him than Seth. Dre has something the NBA adores, elite athleticism. Dre is strong in the upper body, can jump out of the gym and is a top shooter. As role player at the 2 guard position he doesn't need to have good handles. Only his defense is a question IMO.

[sagegrouse]

Well Dre has way more going for him than Seth. Dre has something the NBA adores, elite athleticism. Dre is strong in the upper body, can jump out of the gym and is a top shooter. As role player at the 2 guard position he doesn't need to have good handles. Only his defense is a question IMO.

Andre Dawkins played 450 minutes his senior year; Seth played 1150 minutes, even though nursing an injury all year. Now why is it that Andre couldn't get in the game very much?

[FerryFor50]

Well Dre has way more going for him than Seth. Dre has something the NBA adores, elite athleticism. Dre is strong in the upper body, can jump out of the gym and is a top shooter. As role player at the 2 guard position he doesn't need to have good handles. Only his defense is a question IMO.

Eh, I don't think he has "elite athleticism."

His vertical measured at 30".

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../andre-dawkins

This is his scouting profile:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...eport-and-more

At 6'4", his 30" vert isn't great. For instance, Nick Young is 6'3" and projected as a shooting guard. Teams were worried about his size, but he is way more athletic than Dawkins and showed more ability at Arizona.

His vertical? 41.5"

Now THAT'S elite.

[CDu]

So you're saying he's the next Jeff Hornacek? John Paxson? Craig Hodges? I think Andre could live with that.

Pump the brakes a bit. Hornacek and Paxson were both combo guards that averaged 6 assists per 36 minutes. They absolutely could dribble and pass. To a lesser degree the same is true for Hodges. But Hodges was probably the best pure shooter in the NBA. That isn't going to be true for Dawkins.

There is certainly a chance Dawkins could catch on somewhere as a backup 3pt specialist. But let's not overstate that chance by suggesting faulty comps.

[rhynelander]

Eh, I don't think he has "elite athleticism."

His vertical measured at 30".

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../andre-dawkins

This is his scouting profile:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...eport-and-more

At 6'4", his 30" vert isn't great. For instance, Nick Young is 6'3" and projected as a shooting guard. Teams were worried about his size, but he is way more athletic than Dawkins and showed more ability at Arizona.

His vertical? 41.5"

Now THAT'S elite.

So the 30" here are not quite the same stat as Young's 41.5". I just couldn't believe that Andre's Vert was 30", that was my max vert in High School and Andre can throw down, hard.



So on draftexpress.com Andre's vert is 30" when standing, no steps. He has no max vert number listed.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andre-Dawkins-5733/

Nick Young on the other hand is indeed elite. His standing vert is 33.5 while his max vert is listed at 41.5.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nick-Johnson-6524/

So it's a case of apples and oranges when we compare his 41.5 to Andre's 30. Maybe we could assume Andre's Max vert is 36"-39", which is awesome and along with his length explain his occasional fantastic dunks. He is still not in the same category of leapers like Nick Young or Andrew Wiggins.

[rhynelander]

Dawkins can really jump. I mean my mans jumped over Hairston.
At least I think that was Hairston... That hand kinda blocks the jersey.

[Kedsy]

Andre Dawkins played 450 minutes his senior year; Seth played 1150 minutes, even though nursing an injury all year. Now why is it that Andre couldn't get in the game very much?

Well, this doesn't explain it entirely, but here are the perimeter rotations from Seth's last year at Duke and Andre's last year at Duke (numbers are from my recruiting/rotation post from a few weeks ago; lower is better if you don't remember):

2013: Seth Curry (1.5), Rasheed Sulaimon (2.0), Quinn Cook (2.5), Tyler Thornton (3.0) [plus Alex Murphy (3.5) at end of bench]

2014: Rasheed Sulaimon (1.5), Rodney Hood (1.5), Andre Dawkins (1.5), Quinn Cook (2.0), Tyler Thornton (2.5) [plus Matt Jones (3.0) and Semi Ojeleye (3.0) at end of bench]

Andre had a LOT more competition for perimeter minutes than Seth did. Like I said, it may not entirely explain why Seth had 2.5x as many minutes as Andre, but (especially since the perimeter guys behind Andre were our only PGs) it probably does explain a pretty large portion of the difference.

Put another way, if the perimeter rotation other than Andre this past season was just Quinn, Tyler, and Rasheed -- and nobody else (like it was Seth's last season) -- then I feel confident in saying Andre would have logged at least 1100 minutes. And quite frankly, if Andre had logged 1100 minutes I feel confident he would have been drafted.

I agree with those who think Andre should have a better chance to succeed in the NBA than Seth did/does.

[Kedsy]

Nick Young on the other hand is indeed elite. His standing vert is 33.5 while his max vert is listed at 41.5.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Nick-Johnson-6524/

You guys mean Nick Johnson, right? Not Nick Young.

[Kedsy]

To a lesser degree the same is true for Hodges. But Hodges was probably the best pure shooter in the NBA. That isn't going to be true for Dawkins.

Andre may not be the best pure shooter, but he'd be up there. The table below lists Andre and Seth alongside eleven NBA "shooters," and shows the true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage for each player in his last year of college.

I didn't make this list so you could pick apart why each guy isn't comparable, so please don't bother. I admit the comps may not all be perfect (for example, Steph Curry is a way more than a shooter and JJ Redick took more difficult shots in college, etc., etc.). But these eleven guys all primarily make a living shooting the basketball. And Andre is certainly top five as a "pure shooter."

Player		ts%	eFG%
Kyle Korver	0.674	0.633
Steve Novak	0.671	0.634
Andre Dawkins	0.634	0.614
J.J. Redick	0.630	0.578
Jodie Meeks	0.629	0.566
Seth Curry	0.617	0.577
Anthony Morrow	0.611	0.579
Wesley Matthews	0.607	0.527
Stephen Curry	0.604	0.549
Danny Green	0.592	0.569
Arron Afflalo	0.589	0.556
Klay Thompson	0.574	0.525
Craig Hodges	0.502	0.475
Khris Middleton	0.464	0.433

NOTE: For kicks, I put Craig Hodges's numbers in the table as well, although since I don't think there was a three-point shot when he played, his numbers don't mean very much compared to the others.

[Des Esseintes]

Andre may not be the best pure shooter, but he'd be up there. The table below lists Andre and Seth alongside eleven NBA "shooters," and shows the true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage for each player in his last year of college.

I didn't make this list so you could pick apart why each guy isn't comparable, so please don't bother. I admit the comps may not all be perfect (for example, Steph Curry is a way more than a shooter and JJ Redick took more difficult shots in college, etc., etc.). But these eleven guys all primarily make a living shooting the basketball. And Andre is certainly top five as a "pure shooter."

Player		ts%	eFG%
Kyle Korver	0.674	0.633
Steve Novak	0.671	0.634
Andre Dawkins	0.634	0.614
J.J. Redick	0.630	0.578
Jodie Meeks	0.629	0.566
Seth Curry	0.617	0.577
Anthony Morrow	0.611	0.579
Wesley Matthews	0.607	0.527
Stephen Curry	0.604	0.549
Danny Green	0.592	0.569
Arron Afflalo	0.589	0.556
Klay Thompson	0.574	0.525
Craig Hodges	0.502	0.475
Khris Middleton	0.464	0.433

NOTE: For kicks, I put Craig Hodges's numbers in the table as well, although since I don't think there was a three-point shot when he played, his numbers don't mean very much compared to the others.

Kedsy, I hear you, but I'm not sure how much explanatory power your table has. eFG% and true shooting are very useful stats, but I don't think you can just dump Andre's percentages in among a bunch of elite NBA shooters' and claim that since his numbers are equivalent his shooting is, too. Here are the eFG% NCAA leaders from this past season. How many of these guys will join the ranks of NBA sharpshooters? McDermott, very likely. Anyone else? I'm not seeing it.

1. Jarvis Williams .648
2. Zikiteran Woodley .635
3. Kyle Hittle .633
4. Karvel Anderson .633
5. Marshall Bjorklund .629
T.J. Bray .629
7. Terrence Smith .629
8. Jameel Warney .616
9. Montrezl Harrell .612
10. De'Mon Brooks .610
11. Sean Armand .609
12. Casey Prather .606
13. Issiah Grayson .606
14. Tymell Murphy .605
15. Doug McDermott .603

Andre might very well have a good enough shooting tool to make it, but the world is full of Salim Stoudamires who put up pretty percentages (.689 TS%, .647 eFG% senior year; waaaay better than Andre) in college but couldn't reproduce it in the Association.

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I hear you, but I'm not sure how much explanatory power your table has. eFG% and true shooting are very useful stats, but I don't think you can just dump Andre's percentages in among a bunch of elite NBA shooters' and claim that since his numbers are equivalent his shooting is, too. Here are the eFG% NCAA leaders from this past season. How many of these guys will join the ranks of NBA sharpshooters? McDermott, very likely. Anyone else? I'm not seeing it.

1. Jarvis Williams .648
2. Zikiteran Woodley .635
3. Kyle Hittle .633
4. Karvel Anderson .633
5. Marshall Bjorklund .629
T.J. Bray .629
7. Terrence Smith .629
8. Jameel Warney .616
9. Montrezl Harrell .612
10. De'Mon Brooks .610
11. Sean Armand .609
12. Casey Prather .606
13. Issiah Grayson .606
14. Tymell Murphy .605
15. Doug McDermott .603

Andre might very well have a good enough shooting tool to make it, but the world is full of Salim Stoudamires who put up pretty percentages (.689 TS%, .647 eFG% senior year; waaaay better than Andre) in college but couldn't reproduce it in the Association.

OK, first of all, I'm simply suggesting that Andre's shooting is good enough to get him on an NBA roster (something Salim Stoudamire achieved for three seasons). So I do think his shooting percentages relative to good NBA shooters are relevant.

Second, your list above is misleading. For example, of the eight guys on your list who had better eFG% than Andre's .614, four of them didn't take a thee-pointer all season and two others took less than 25 threes in the season -- those six players are clearly irrelevant to this discussion. The remaining two guys who had a higher eFG% than Andre played for (very) low majors (Incarnate Word and Robert Morris). Considering the percentage of Andre's shots that came beyond the three-point line, and the fact that he played against high-major competition, his college eFG% and ts% are very impressive.

Finally, there are obviously other factors in play here. Salim Stoudamire may have had trouble getting his shot off in the NBA because he was 6'1" in high heels on a tall day. Seth Curry is 6'1" w/o shoes. He also might have some trouble getting his shot off against NBA SGs. Andre Dawkins is 6'3.5" w/o shoes. Which I understand isn't as tall as someone like Kyle Korver (6'6.25 w/o shoes), but especially considering how much elevation Andre gets on his shot, Andre should be tall enough to get his shot off (unlike SS and SC). Andre also has a decent NBA-caliber vertical and other athletic attributes, and a good-for-his-height 6'8.5 wingspan (by comparison, Seth Curry's wingspan is only 6'4), unlike so many college shooting specialists.

If you're still not seeing it, that's fine. Obviously none of the NBA GMs saw it, either, but I still think Andre will make it to the NBA someday.

[Des Esseintes]

OK, first of all, I'm simply suggesting that Andre's shooting is good enough to get him on an NBA roster (something Salim Stoudamire achieved for three seasons). So I do think his shooting percentages relative to good NBA shooters are relevant.

Second, your list above is misleading. For example, of the eight guys on your list who had better eFG% than Andre's .614, four of them didn't take a thee-pointer all season and two others took less than 25 threes in the season -- those six players are clearly irrelevant to this discussion. The remaining two guys who had a higher eFG% than Andre played for (very) low majors (Incarnate Word and Robert Morris). Considering the percentage of Andre's shots that came beyond the three-point line, and the fact that he played against high-major competition, his college eFG% and ts% are very impressive.

Finally, there are obviously other factors in play here. Salim Stoudamire may have had trouble getting his shot off in the NBA because he was 6'1" in high heels on a tall day. Seth Curry is 6'1" w/o shoes. He also might have some trouble getting his shot off against NBA SGs. Andre Dawkins is 6'3.5" w/o shoes. Which I understand isn't as tall as someone like Kyle Korver (6'6.25 w/o shoes), but especially considering how much elevation Andre gets on his shot, Andre should be tall enough to get his shot off (unlike SS and SC). Andre also has a decent NBA-caliber vertical and other athletic attributes, and a good-for-his-height 6'8.5 wingspan (by comparison, Seth Curry's wingspan is only 6'4), unlike so many college shooting specialists.

If you're still not seeing it, that's fine. Obviously none of the NBA GMs saw it, either, but I still think Andre will make it to the NBA someday.

No, I see it. I guess I just didn't think the table you put up told us much. I mean, everything you say in this response is true, but for every point you raise there is a counter. For example, while Andre played against high-major competition, he didn't play enough or shoot enough to qualify on the national leaderboard. That says something. You might say it's that K didn't play him enough--and I'd agree with you--but the fact remains that guys who make it in the NBA, even at the end of the bench, generally played a lot more in college than Andre did. Likewise, while Andre has decent size and athleticism compared to the Salim Stoudamires and Seth Currys of the world, he also has a much narrower skillset. (Your point that Stoudamire actually stuck around a little while in the NBA is well-taken, though.) You've been vocal on the board about the importance of Andre moving without the ball. He was better about that as a senior, but for whatever reason he definitely tailed off in that regard in the back half of the year. Is that something he will ever bring consistently? I unfortunately have my doubts at this point. I really want Andre to succeed at the highest level. I just can't shake the feeling that, despite his terrible luck, he would have made a deeper statistical imprint in his time at Duke if he was going to end up making the most competitive sports league on Planet Earth.