Andre Dawkins makes the Heat!

[Matches]

Congrats. I confess I thought he would need a stint in the NBDL first.

And I'm still trying to wrap my arms around the concept that Andre Dawkins is an NBA player and Nolan Smith isn't.

To be fair, Nolan *did* make it to the NBA. He just didn't stick. Time will tell if Dre will stick. Hopefully he will.

[SupaDave]

So who would have predicted a couple of years ago that Andre Dawkins would be on an NBA opening day roster and John Michael McAdoo would not? Don't all raise your hands at once.

Seriously, this is wonderful news.

I would have...

[MCFinARL]

I would have...

Props to you, SupaDave--a gutsy but accurate call.

[jimsumner]

To be fair, Nolan *did* make it to the NBA. He just didn't stick. Time will tell if Dre will stick. Hopefully he will.

Okay, let me rephrase. Go back to the end of the 2011 season and predict which Duke players will be on an opening-day NBA roster in October 2014. Irving? Duh. Singler? Got it. The Plumlees? There's always a place for athletes. Smith? Of course. He's the freaking ACC Player of the Year. Dawkins and Kelly? Get serious.

As an aside, once Dawkins plays in an NBA game, that will bring to eight the total of players from the 2011 Duke team to have played in the NBA. Add Seth Curry to the above list.

That's the most of any team in Duke history. By contrast, 1978 had four, 1986 had five (including Marty Nessley), 1991 had five and 2001 had five.

It will also give Dawkins more NBA games than the combined total of Tommy Amaker, Kevin Strickland, Billy King, Robert Brickey, Phil Henderson, Billy McCaffrey, Thomas Hill, Chris Collins, Jeff Capel, Chris Carrawell, Nate James and Jon Scheyer.

Go figure.

[Bob Green]

It will also give Dawkins more NBA games than the combined total of Tommy Amaker, Kevin Strickland, Billy King, Robert Brickey, Phil Henderson, Billy McCaffrey, Thomas Hill, Chris Collins, Jeff Capel, Chris Carrawell, Nate James and Jon Scheyer.

Go figure.

Which will prove what we all already know - the college and NBA games are very different.

[CDu]

So who would have predicted a couple of years ago that Andre Dawkins would be on an NBA opening day roster and John Michael McAdoo would not? Don't all raise your hands at once.

Seriously, this is wonderful news.

Well, I certainly would have predicted that Dawkins had a better shot at the NBA than John Michael McAdoo. But compared with James Michael McAdoo? No way.

[Matches]

Okay, let me rephrase. Go back to the end of the 2011 season and predict which Duke players will be on an opening-day NBA roster in October 2014. Irving? Duh. Singler? Got it. The Plumlees? There's always a place for athletes. Smith? Of course. He's the freaking ACC Player of the Year. Dawkins and Kelly? Get serious.

I'd have told you to "get serious" re: Dawkins last week. I'll confess I had absolutely zero belief that Dawkins would ever sniff an NBA roster. (Of course Id've said the same thing about Lance Thomas.) Happy to be wrong.

[jimsumner]

Which will prove what we all already know - the college and NBA games are very different.

But that different? A guy who never averaged more than eight plus points per game in a single college season and who can only do one thing well?

I honestly cannot come up with an analog for Dawkins. Seven-footers are not analogous because the human gene pool just doesn't produce that many seven-footers who can walk and chew gum at the same time. So, a Marty Nessley or a Matt Wenstrom will get a shot. Corey Maggette and Marvin Williams were sixth men but sixth men who scored in double figures for teams oozing talent.

But Dawkins has earned a chance to impress and learn and grow and stick around for awhile. I hope he does it.

[CDu]

But that different? A guy who never averaged more than eight plus points per game in a single college season and who can only do one thing well?

I honestly cannot come up with an analog for Dawkins. Seven-footers are not analogous because the human gene pool just doesn't produce that many seven-footers who can walk and chew gum at the same time. So, a Marty Nessley or a Matt Wenstrom will get a shot. Corey Maggette and Marvin Williams were sixth men but sixth men who scored in double figures for teams oozing talent.

But Dawkins has earned a chance to impress and learn and grow and stick around for awhile. I hope he does it.

To be fair, a big part of the reason that Dawkins never averaged over 8 ppg was because of limited playing time. His per-32 minute career scoring average was over 13 points, and his senior-year per-32 was over 18 points. So had he been given the same playing time as, say, JJ Redick, we might not be debating this.

I think the best comp for Dawkins is Anthony Morrow. Morrow was, like Dawkins, a dead-eye 3pt shooter who stunk at pretty much everything else. He managed to be a starter for two of his four years in school, and in those years he averaged 16ppg and 14ppg. But his other two years were more like Dawkins' career.

Had Dawkins played anywhere other than Duke (where his coach was maniacal about defensive effort and awareness - two things Dawkins stunk at), he might have even been a draft pick. Think of a guy like John Jenkins from Vandy two years ago (great shooter, no defense).

Now, I also don't expect Dawkins to stick in the NBA, for all the reasons he didn't stick in the rotation at Duke. Unless you're an otherworldly shooter/scorer, you simply have to bring more to the table. And Dawkins never developed any more to his game than his 3pt shot in 5 years at Duke. So I have trouble believing he'll make the adjustment at the NBA level. He's getting his shot though, so hopefully he proves me wrong.

[Wander]

And I'm still trying to wrap my arms around the concept that Andre Dawkins is an NBA player and Nolan Smith isn't.

Those 3 inches matter a lot. (Yes, I know, insert your own TWSS joke here)

[Kedsy]

Think of a guy like John Jenkins from Vandy two years ago (great shooter, no defense).

I made the Jenkins comp last season. They're pretty much the same size, and Andre's advanced stats were very similar to Jenkins's (about the only difference was Jenkins got to the line more). Jenkins just played a lot more minutes and was the focus of his team's offense for two years. Whether or not it was best for the team to use him the way Coach K chose to use him, if Andre had been handled differently he could have been a star.

And Jenkins is still in the League. I've been saying for some time that Andre has a shot.

[CDu]

I made the Jenkins comp last season. They're pretty much the same size, and Andre's advanced stats were very similar to Jenkins's (about the only difference was Jenkins got to the line more). Jenkins just played a lot more minutes and was the focus of his team's offense for two years. Whether or not it was best for the team to use him the way Coach K chose to use him, if Andre had been handled differently he could have been a star.

And Jenkins is still in the League. I've been saying for some time that Andre has a shot.

There is one glaring difference between Jenkins (now) and Dawkins. Jenkins was a first round pick. As such, he had his first two years guaranteed. But last year, he played a whopping 158 minutes (and looked terrible in those minutes), and it remains to be seen whether the Hawks will pick up his option for a 4th year.

But regardless, I wouldn't use Jenkins as a comp for the likelihood that Dawkins sticks. If it weren't for the fact that Jenkins' contract this year was guaranteed over a year ago, he would likely already be out of the league.

The NBA is a financially-driven league in many ways, and guaranteed contracts versus non-guaranteed contracts make a BIG difference in a player's likelihood of sticking in the league. Teams are much more likely to give a first-round pick every chance to make it (due to the guaranteed money) as compared to the exact same player who went undrafted.

[Bob Green]

But that different? A guy who never averaged more than eight plus points per game in a single college season and who can only do one thing well?

But Dawkins has earned a chance to impress and learn and grow and stick around for awhile. I hope he does it.

I am as surprised as you are and equally hopeful he makes it.

[MCFinARL]

Well, I certainly would have predicted that Dawkins had a better shot at the NBA than John Michael McAdoo. But compared with James Michael McAdoo? No way.

Oops, John, James, details, details.

[Duke3517]

To me it's all about maturity. Dawkins is very immature and until now it's been very easy for him ( basketball wise). I mean he got into one of the best BB programs in the country. Maybe he didn't have to work very hard to do it. His talent got him to Duke. One day he will mature, wake up, whatever. It could still happen.

I swear I did not write this. Lol.

Very happy for Andre Dawkins! I always rooted for him because of what he went through.

[_Gary]

Those 3 inches matter a lot. (Yes, I know, insert your own TWSS joke here)

I can't quite tell how much you are joking about height, but I'm one that believes a couple of inches can make a HUGE difference in the NBA. Unless you are a freak athlete it hurts you as a guard when you aren't at least 6'3" or so. I know there are exceptions, but it does make a difference. As much as I love Nolan and Andre both, I will not be in the least bit surprised if Andre has a longer run in the NBA than Nolan. Nolan is short for a 2 guard (and he's not a true point, no matter how you slice it). He also didn't have a quick trigger on his jump shots. That's a double-whammy. If you are short (by NBA standards) for your position and you don't have a quick step and quick shot it's hard to stick. Especially if you aren't going to hit a big percentage of the shots you do get off. Andre has Nolan beat on all counts in that regard. He's got a couple of inches on Nolan as best I can tell. He's got better NBA distance on his shots than Nolan ever demonstrated. And he's got a quicker trigger. He's not quicker off the dribble, but his shot is off quicker than Nolan's. All those would be reasons I'd expect Andre to have a better shot in the League over Nolan. But I love them both and wish them both success.

[JPtheGame]

Well now its fairly obvious why Miami was willing to let lebron james walk. It frees up cap room for the max deal dre will be shooting for in 3 years!

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

Andre Didn't suit up for tonight's game against the wizards. If he had he probably wouldnt have sniffed any minutes as 4 players went with DNP Coaches decision. Also of Note McBob still out with injury and Loul Deng looked good in his Heat Debut even after going to the locker room briefly with a sprain. HEAT win with Norris Cole and Bosh leading the way.

[MCFinARL]

Andre Didn't suit up for tonight's game against the wizards. If he had he probably wouldnt have sniffed any minutes as 4 players went with DNP Coaches decision. Also of Note McBob still out with injury and Loul Deng looked good in his Heat Debut even after going to the locker room briefly with a sprain. HEAT win with Norris Cole and Bosh leading the way.

Yes, since Andre was the last person to make the team, he may not suit up unless/until there are at least two players out with injuries. But one step at a time.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yes, since Andre was the last person to make the team, he may not suit up unless/until there are at least two players out with injuries. But one step at a time.

Well, if D-Wade is gonna be rested for 20+ games, Andre moves up a spot!