NBA Free Agency 2014

[BobbyFan]

The LeBron opt-out is being overblown. Look for Wade and Bosh to opt out too.

They're not leaving -- they are allowing Miami to restructure their contracts so the Heat can afford another couple of players.

The big news would be in Wade does NOT opt out -- that would blow up the Heat plans and could lead to LeBron leaving.

Why is it so far fetched for Wade to not opt out? He already gave the Heat a discount when he signed in 2010, and he would now would be walking away from money he would never see in the open market. Even if he were to get a longer restructured contract, it would require him to play a few extra years to see the full money, and who knows what state his body is in two years from now.

He's also in a career decline, and his place in history is already set. He's not a top 15 all time player, but will be a first ballot HOF who has won 3 titles and is one of the top 3 or 4 SGs ever. Winning more titles as a supporting player won't add much to his legacy, and certainly won't be as significant as they would be to LeBron.

[superdave]

Chris Bosh playoff stats -
2011 - 18.6 and 8.5
2012 - 14.0 and 7.8
2013 - 12.1 and 7.3
2014 - 14.9 and 5.6


Dwyane Wade playoff stats -
2011 - 24.5 and 7.1
2012 - 22.8 and 5.2
2013 - 15.9 and 4.6
2014 - 17.8 and 3.9

This to me is why Pat Riley needs to find a way to upgrade the lineup and do it fast. My assumption is if Wade does NOT opt out, it is because he knows James is gone and he wants to keep the $. Bosh may have one more max deal left, but I dont think Wade can command that with his numbers tailing off and his DNP's up.

Short of Melo, could the Heat restructure their three guys and go after two of Deng/Gasol/Stephenson/Hawes/Livingston/McRoberts? Would getting Deng and Gasol be enough to get back in the title hunt? Would that be better than splurging on Melo?

[CDu]

Chris Bosh playoff stats -
2011 - 18.6 and 8.5
2012 - 14.0 and 7.8
2013 - 12.1 and 7.3
2014 - 14.9 and 5.6


Dwyane Wade playoff stats -
2011 - 24.5 and 7.1
2012 - 22.8 and 5.2
2013 - 15.9 and 4.6
2014 - 17.8 and 3.9

This to me is why Pat Riley needs to find a way to upgrade the lineup and do it fast. My assumption is if Wade does NOT opt out, it is because he knows James is gone and he wants to keep the $. Bosh may have one more max deal left, but I dont think Wade can command that with his numbers tailing off and his DNP's up.

Short of Melo, could the Heat restructure their three guys and go after two of Deng/Gasol/Stephenson/Hawes/Livingston/McRoberts? Would getting Deng and Gasol be enough to get back in the title hunt? Would that be better than splurging on Melo?

I think it's less likely that they get two second-tier guys than it is that they get Carmelo. And I don't think it's at all likely that they get Carmelo. First, it would require those guys to take a pay cut to join the Heat. Second, I can't imagine that Wade would take a substantial pay cut just to get two second-tier guys. But, I guess you just never know.

It all depends on (a) how much James and Bosh/Wade are willing to sacrifice salary-wise and (b) how much James wants to stay in Miami. And (b) is perhaps the more important point here, because James certainly has options that may be better than Miami.

Let's take the Bulls as an example. Assuming the Bulls amnesty Boozer, James could get a salary starting at ~$18 million next year from the Bulls. With that starting salary, Noah, Gibson, Butler, and a healthy Rose are a much better supporting cast than Wade, Bosh, and whatever guys are willing to come at a heavy discount (Miami would have only about $9 million in cap space). And there's much more staying power will the Bulls as those guys are reasonably young (definitely young compared to Miami's group). So James (and Wade and Bosh) would have to take substantially less money than that to get a better team than the Bulls with James. And they would still be a declining group with Wade and Bosh.

The story in Houston (if Houston can move Lin and Asik) is similar. James can get a pretty good salary and join a younger, better fitting duo with Howard and Harden. And he gets the same tax benefits in Houston that he'd get in Miami.

Basically, unless Wade and Bosh are willing to take hefty pay cuts (AND someone like Carmelo is willing to do the same), Miami doesn't appear to be James' best option.

Side note: all of the above is also pertinent to Carmelo Anthony. He's facing the same sort of options as James.

[Wander]

I'd really like to see Miami get some good YOUNG talent around Lebron. Yes, the Spurs stars are old, but they also had good young talent at their other positions in Leonard, Mills, and Green - the equivalent guys on the Heat are in their mid-to-late 30's. I guess they tried with Beasley, but they need to try again.

[CDu]

I'd really like to see Miami get some good YOUNG talent around Lebron. Yes, the Spurs stars are old, but they also had good young talent at their other positions in Leonard, Mills, and Green - the equivalent guys on the Heat are in their mid-to-late 30's. I guess they tried with Beasley, but they need to try again.

The problem is that there isn't a real way to do this unless Wade and Bosh and James all agree to take HUGE paycuts. Those guys, if they stay together, are going to take up at least 75% of the salary cap. That leaves very little cap space and no assets to acquire good young talent.

Basically, Miami's only path to find good young talent is to hope they can find some gems late in the draft. Otherwise, they are stuck with older guys willing to take the veteran's minimum to chase a ring.

[Matches]

The problem with a Bulls scenario is that Rose is such a huge question mark. No one really knows (a) if he'll be healthy and (b) if he'll be the same guy he was before the injury. It's hard to imagine Lebron jumping into that situation with such a significant unknown. Even without Rose, the current Bulls + Lebron would be really good, but that's true of almost any team in the league.

I still think the most likely scenario is that Wade & Bosh opt out, all three guys re-sign with Miami at reduced amounts, and the Heat uses the extra cash to either add Melo or 2-3 solid role players.

[CDu]

The problem with a Bulls scenario is that Rose is such a huge question mark. No one really knows (a) if he'll be healthy and (b) if he'll be the same guy he was before the injury. It's hard to imagine Lebron jumping into that situation with such a significant unknown. Even without Rose, the current Bulls + Lebron would be really good, but that's true of almost any team in the league.

I still think the most likely scenario is that Wade & Bosh opt out, all three guys re-sign with Miami at reduced amounts, and the Heat uses the extra cash to either add Melo or 2-3 solid role players.

To be fair, I don't think (a) is a question at all. Neither of his injuries are career-threatening injuries. The second of those injuries (a meniscus tear) was a MUCH less severe injury than the ACL. Rose is just notoriously slow to return to the court. But Rose is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear in the left knee and over 7 months removed from the torn meniscus in his right knee. He's fine in terms of health, and almost certainly has been so for a few months now.

Question (b) is the more interesting a question. Rose didn't look sharp at all in his brief return last season. A lot of that can be attributed to the rust associated with not playing competitive games in over a year (he didn't start playing until pre-season last year, and he kept his play limited during that time). So we don't know if we'll see the old Rose, or 95% of the old Rose, or 75% of the old Rose. The plan is to shake off that rust playing with Team USA this summer and then be ready for the season. But yes, (b) would have to be clarified as much as possible with Anthony or James (with Anthony the more likely target).

As for the most likely scenario, I don't think there's much likelihood of Carmelo joining James/Wade/Bosh. I think those guys would all have to take too big a pay cut to make that happen. And with Wade in such a decline (and questions as to whether Bosh can still be a big-time player, I can't see Anthony jumping on that ship. I think that Anthony is going to either go to LA, Chicago, or Houston. I'd put Anthony returning to New York as more likely than Anthony going to Miami. But you just never know.

[JasonEvans]

Supposedly, the "Big Three" are meeting to talk about their plans. I think they will opt for less money to stay with Miami and leave some cash on the table for Miami to bring in some help. I don't think there will be enough money to bring in Melo though.

If Lebron leaves Miami, I have not heard as much talk about Chicago recently. All the talk seems to center around the Lakers, Clippers, Houston, and Dallas. I'd hate for the East to lose Lebron as it will make the East seem even more like the minor leagues. ESPN Radio has been aflutter with the idea of Melo and Lebron joining Kobe on the Lakers, but every analyst seems to say that would not work because Kobe would not tolerate playing second or third fiddle to those guys.

Apparently, the Clippers would need to do the nearly unthinkable and trade Blake Griffin to make a deal for Lebron work. WOW! Here's a thought -- Blake Griffin to Cleveland for the #1 pick (Jabari or Wiggins) plus the rights to Verejao and Tristan Thompson. That trade works from a salary cap perspective. The Clips would have to Amnesty Verejao to make room for Lebron's salary.

I dunno -- this stuff is crazy! Teams are all going gaga right now to see if they can clear room for Lebron and Melo. The draft trade rumors are going batty. Twitter is abuzz with Cleveland talking to teams about Orlando's #4 and #12 picks, indicating the Orlando is offering those two picks (and probably something else) for the right to move up to #1. Philly supposedly really wants to move up to #1 as well. Last year's draft didn't feature many deals because no one really wanted picks in that draft. This year, I bet we see a lot of deals because teams are willing to pay a LOT for picks in what is seen as one of the deepest and most talented drafts in years.

-Jason "I suspect it is going to be a very interesting 12-14 hours in the NBA" Evans

[Matches]

If Lebron leaves Miami, I have not heard as much talk about Chicago recently. All the talk seems to center around the Lakers, Clippers, Houston, and Dallas. I'd hate for the East to lose Lebron as it will make the East seem even more like the minor leagues. ESPN Radio has been aflutter with the idea of Melo and Lebron joining Kobe on the Lakers, but every analyst seems to say that would not work because Kobe would not tolerate playing second or third fiddle to those guys.

Kobe's giant contract probably makes it impossible for the Lakers to add both Melo and Lebron. I could see Melo ending up there but not both of them.

I do expect Dallas to be a big player in the Melo sweepstakes, along with the Bulls. I'm skeptical of the Clippers - I highly doubt Lebron's going there with the ownership situation unresolved, given how outspoken he's been about Sterling, and if I'm the Clippers I'm not doing all the other rejiggering that would be necessary to get Melo. For Lebron - yea, pull out all the stops.

[CDu]

Kobe's giant contract probably makes it impossible for the Lakers to add both Melo and Lebron. I could see Melo ending up there but not both of them.

That's actually not true. Kobe is set to make $23.5 million next season. With Nash's $9.7 million and some other minor contracts, the Lakers only have about $36 million on the books for next year. With the cap at ~$63 million, that leaves about $27 million in free space. That's the same amount that James (and the others) would have to take to get Melo to Miami. And that's assuming the Lakers can't pull off a salary dump with Nash. That would get them to about $37 million in cap space, which would put them at $18.5 million each for James and Anthony.

Now, the question is whether a roster of old man Bryant, James, and Anthony and a bunch of scrubs is more interesting than a team of Howard, James, Anthony (if the Rockets do a sign-and-trade of Harden) or Rose, Noah, Gibson, Butler, and Anthony/James. And I don't think the Lakers look all that appealing by comparison. So while it is mathematically possible to get both at reasonably-doable contracts, I agree in that I don't think it is realistic.

I do expect Dallas to be a big player in the Melo sweepstakes, along with the Bulls. I'm skeptical of the Clippers - I highly doubt Lebron's going there with the ownership situation unresolved, given how outspoken he's been about Sterling, and if I'm the Clippers I'm not doing all the other rejiggering that would be necessary to get Melo. For Lebron - yea, pull out all the stops.

I think Dallas is not a big threat. They only have about $26 million in cap space, and that doesn't count the fact that they need to sign Nowitzki. Is an old Nowitzki, an old Chandler, and Monte Ellis really that appealing?

I think the Rockets and Bulls are the frontrunners for Melo if he leaves New York (which I consider probably a 50/50 or better chance). I think the Rockets would be the frontrunners for James if he leaves Miami (which I consider less likely). I agree on the Clippers - especially with regard to Anthony. Chris Paul is godfather to James' children, so I could see potential interest there. But I think the Clippers would have to give up too much to make that happen, and that would leave James in a less-than-desirable situation.

[Matches]

I think the Rockets and Bulls are the frontrunners for Melo if he leaves New York (which I consider probably a 50/50 or better chance). I think the Rockets would be the frontrunners for James if he leaves Miami (which I consider less likely).

IMO the best *fit* for Melo is clearly the Bulls. Defensive-minded team that struggles to score and needs a go-to guy? That's pretty close to the perfect scenario for Melo even without Rose. Whether that's where he'll end up, we'll see.

[CDu]

IMO the best *fit* for Melo is clearly the Bulls. Defensive-minded team that struggles to score and needs a go-to guy? That's pretty close to the perfect scenario for Melo even without Rose. Whether that's where he'll end up, we'll see.

Yeah, in terms of fit, I think the Bulls are clearly the best for Anthony. He can play his same game, but have a much better group around him and guys who are good defensively. It's less great a fit for James (unless they add some shooters), but it may still represent his best shot at future titles. But, as you said, you never know. Chicago certainly doesn't have a great history in landing big-name free agents, so to expect that to change now might be folly. As a Bulls fan, I'm hopeful that we get Anthony, but I certainly won't call it likely right now.

I'll add that, if the Rockets can trade Lin and then do a sign-and-trade with New York or Miami involving Harden, then the Rockets look really interesting with Howard, James, and Anthony. Of course, they'd be in the West, which is tougher sledding than the East. So there are obvious tradeoffs there.

Part of me thinks that all of this will just be a big tease though, with Miami's "big three" staying in place and Anthony staying in New York.

[Billy Dat]

Part of me thinks that all of this will just be a big tease though, with Miami's "big three" staying in place and Anthony staying in New York.

Yeah, if Wade is at a point where he is willing to restructure to take significantly less per season but gets more overall, and perhaps moves to the Manu 6th man role, I don't see why they'd break up. With the Knicks starting to make moves with the Chanlder/Felton trade, picking up an early second round pick, it'll be interesting to see what they look like when 7/1 rolls around.

Bottom line, the East is the path of least resistance to the Finals for all of these guys. Hopping out West and running that playoff gauntlet is a big challenge.

[FerryFor50]

Sounds like the Rockets are shipping Asik to the Pelicans:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...rst-round-pick

Making a run at one of Anthony or James, of course...

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Bottom line, the East is the path of least resistance to the Finals for all of these guys. Hopping out West and running that playoff gauntlet is a big challenge.

The thing is, this year's Heat team probably would have had a great chance to beat any team in the West besides San Antonio. San Antonio is obviously the best team, but they also present significant matchup problems for the Heat. The Spurs nearly got knocked off by a pretty average Mavs team. I do think, for example, a Harden/Howard supporting case is an improvement over Wade/Bosh, but I don't think Lebron's chances of winning more rings improve by making that move, simply because he'd have a much tougher time of even making it to the Finals. The Heat could have returned the same exact team, and they'd probably waltz to the Final, and at that point you just hope San Antonio gets knocked off before then.

To be fair, I don't think (a) is a question at all. Neither of his injuries are career-threatening injuries. The second of those injuries (a meniscus tear) was a MUCH less severe injury than the ACL. Rose is just notoriously slow to return to the court. But Rose is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear in the left knee and over 7 months removed from the torn meniscus in his right knee. He's fine in terms of health, and almost certainly has been so for a few months now.

Question (b) is the more interesting a question. Rose didn't look sharp at all in his brief return last season. A lot of that can be attributed to the rust associated with not playing competitive games in over a year (he didn't start playing until pre-season last year, and he kept his play limited during that time). So we don't know if we'll see the old Rose, or 95% of the old Rose, or 75% of the old Rose. The plan is to shake off that rust playing with Team USA this summer and then be ready for the season. But yes, (b) would have to be clarified as much as possible with Anthony or James (with Anthony the more likely target).

Even without Rose, if you move James to Chicago, they're the best team in the East. Are they better than the current Heat with James? Probably not, but then if you add in a healthy Rose than probably yes. However, I'm pretty much a Rose skeptic at this point. I don't see him returning as the same caliber of player we saw before all the injuries. It's hard to imagine him having that same explosiveness, which was probably his single biggest asset, and he's no better than average as a shooter.

-Jason "I suspect it is going to be a very interesting 12-14 hours in the NBA" Evans

I don't usually get into drafts in any sport. I find them tedious to watch and anticlimactic, since the winners and losers aren't really determined until 2-3 years later. But I'm definitely intrigued for tonight's draft, not only due to the caliber of players available, but also because there's a ton of potential for player movement, setting the stage for the impending free agency period. The Heat are supposedly targeting Shabazz Napier, partly to please Lebron, but now that that news is out there, I suspect that task got a lot harder. Thank you, journalists.

[FerryFor50]

Interesting rumor on CNNSI:

http://www.si.com/nba/2014/06/26/2014-nba-draft-rumors

• Mark Heisler, Forbes: Celtics want Sacramento's No. 8 pick for [Rajon] Rondo. If they get it, Danny Ainge takes Elfrid Payton/Marcus Smart at No. 6.

I'd do #8 pick for Rondo in a heartbeat.

[Olympic Fan]

Why is it so far fetched for Wade to not opt out? He already gave the Heat a discount when he signed in 2010, and he would now would be walking away from money he would never see in the open market. Even if he were to get a longer restructured contract, it would require him to play a few extra years to see the full money, and who knows what state his body is in two years from now.

It's all a matter of winning.

Obviously, Wade can take the money and run. He's due $20.1 million next season and $21.7 million -- at HIS option -- in 2016.

That's almost $42 million he earns by doing nothing. And, quite clearly, at this stage of his career, he can't get that money anywhere else.

So why should he restructrure?

Because if the Big Three don't restructure, it's going to be difficult to build a Miami team that can win any more championships. LeBron likely leaves for a place he CAN win (which is why he came to Miami anyway) and Wade remains as a centerpiece on a mediocre team, making his 20-plus million. but fading into obscurity.

LeBron opted out because he wants to stay and win. The big three have all taken less money in the past so they could play on a great team. I can't see why that will change.

Wade can stand firm and blow up the team ... or he can restructure and the core of the Heat can remain intact.

I expect the latter to happen.

[superdave]

Interesting rumor on CNNSI:

http://www.si.com/nba/2014/06/26/2014-nba-draft-rumors



I'd do #8 pick for Rondo in a heartbeat.

Celtics need to get more than that. They should throw in some salary millstone to clear their cap space going forward. Maybe Rondo ($12.9m expiring in '15), Bogans ($5.5m expiring in '16) and Olynyk who is on a rookie deal for the #8 and a 2nd round pick. I dont know if that works under trade rules, but you need more for Rondo than just the #8.

I wonder if Ainge would then package the #6 and #8 for the #3, or maybe put together something bigger for Love. How about Jeff Green, Brandon Bass, the #6 and #8 for Kevin Love? Does that get the job done?

[JasonEvans]

A trade!!

The Mavs desperately wanted Tyson Chandler back from New York. So, they sent point guard Jose Calderon, center Samuel Dalembert, last year's first-round pick point guard Shane Larkin, reserve guard Wayne Ellington and the 34th and 51st picks in Thursday's draft to the Knicks. Actually, that wasn't enough. The Knicks also forced them to take Ray Felton off their hands. So Ray, the human lowlight film, heads to Dallas.

Also, speaking of the Mavs, everyone expects Dirk to agree to a sweet hometown discount to come back to Dallas. Dirk made $21.7 mil this past season but I bet he signs for $10 mil or less going forward. The Mavs are going to be real players in the free agent market this summer. They have to figure that adding either Melo or LeBron to Dirk and Chandler would give them probably the best front line in the NBA.

-Jason "Melo is going to a new team -- Lebron, not so much" Evans

[FerryFor50]

A trade!!

The Mavs desperately wanted Tyson Chandler back from New York. So, they sent point guard Jose Calderon, center Samuel Dalembert, last year's first-round pick point guard Shane Larkin, reserve guard Wayne Ellington and the 34th and 51st picks in Thursday's draft to the Knicks. Actually, that wasn't enough. The Knicks also forced them to take Ray Felton off their hands. So Ray, the human lowlight film, heads to Dallas.

Also, speaking of the Mavs, everyone expects Dirk to agree to a sweet hometown discount to come back to Dallas. Dirk made $21.7 mil this past season but I bet he signs for $10 mil or less going forward. The Mavs are going to be real players in the free agent market this summer. They have to figure that adding either Melo or LeBron to Dirk and Chandler would give them probably the best front line in the NBA.

-Jason "Melo is going to a new team -- Lebron, not so much" Evans

That is a WHOLE lot to give up for Chandler, who has been a bit injury prone the last year or two. Giving up all that *and* taking on Felton? No thanks.