2014 DBR Mock Draft

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'll freely admit to being more than a little surprised at Jimmer's inability to be more of an impact player in the NBA. After watching him score in college, I truly felt his abilities would translate better at the next level.

That said, his carer is still young. His first three years are not at all dissimilar from JJ Redick's first few seasons and JJ has turned into a very solid starting NBA 2-guard at this point.

-Jason "I think McBuckets size and physical play make him better suited to have a bit more of immediate impact than Jimmer or JJ" Evans

Jimmer is too similar to porn-stach Adam Morrison: insanely high scorer for a mid-major who is too one dimensional.

I may be in the minority, but I think this applies to McBuckets. In college, McBuckets torched people by being bigger, smarter, and having an insanely good shot. How is this different than Jimmer or Morrison?

Other players who fit this bill are Wayne Ellington and Doron Lamb: amazing but one-dimension shooters. And they are struggling in the league.

High-usage and high-scoring college players who fit this mold are much more multi-dimensional. The two that come to mind is JJ (good passer, good defender, high IQ, all of which could be seen in college) and Stephen Curry (do-it all offensive player, a lot of which could be seen in college. I have to admit I'm surprised Curry made it to superstar status).

Anywho, I like McBuckets, but I wouldn't draft him in the lottery, especially with such a deep draft.

[JasonEvans]

So folks don't have to back-reference the first page of this thread to know where we stand...


First Round

1. Cleveland Cavaliers – BlueDevilBrowns - Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
2. Milwaukee Bucks - Turk - Joel Embiid, Kansas
3. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke - Jabari Parker, Duke
4. Orlando Magic - Duvall - Dante Exum, Australia
5. Utah Jazz - tommy - Noah Vonleh, Indiana
6. Boston Celtics - Henderson - Aaron Gordon, Arizona
7. Los Angeles Lakers - TheSchwartz - Marcus Smart, Okie State
8. Sacramento Kings – Ichabod Drain - Doug McDermott, Creighton
9. Charlotte Hornets - mattman91
10. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke
11. Denver Nuggets - The Alaskan Bear
12. Orlando Magic - Duvall
13. Minnesota Timberwolves – FerryFor50
14. Phoenix Suns - LI Duke
15. Atlanta Hawks - JasonEvans
16. Chicago Bulls - CDu
17. Boston Celtics - Henderson
18. Phoenix Suns - LI Duke
19. Chicago Bulls - CDu
20. Toronto Raptors - NovaScotian
21. Oklahoma City Thunder - FlyingDutchDevil
22. Memphis Grizzlies - Roywhite
23. Utah Jazz - tommy
24. Charlotte Hornets - mattman91
25. Houston Rockets - nsdukefan
26. Miami Heat - Duke3517
27. Phoenix Suns - LI Duke
28. Los Angeles Clippers- Newton_14
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - FlyingDutchDevil
30. San Antonio Spurs - Brevity

Second Round:

31. Milwaukee Bucks - Turk
32. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke
33. Cleveland Cavaliers - BlueDevilBrowns
34. Dallas Mavericks - kAzE
35. Utah Jazz - tommy
36. Milwaukee Bucks - Turk
37. Toronto Raptors - NovaScotian
38. Detroit Pistons - NCDBlueDevilsTC78
39. Philadelphia 76ers -pfrduke
40. Minnesota Timberwolves - FerryFor50
41. Denver Nuggets - The Alaskan Bear
42. Houston Rockets - nsdukefan
43. Atlanta Hawks - JasonEvans
44. Minnesota Timberwolves - FerryFor50
45. Charlotte Hornets - mattman91
46. Washington Wizards - nocilla
47. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke
48. Milwaukee Bucks - Turk
49. Chicago Bulls - CDu
50. Phoenix Suns - LI Duke
51. Dallas Mavericks - kAzE
52. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke
53. Minnesota Timberwolves - FerryFor50
54. Philadelphia 76ers - pfrduke
55. Miami Heat - Duke3517
56. Denver Nuggets - The Alaskan Bear
57. Indiana Pacers - awhom111
58. San Antonio Spurs - Brevity
59. Toronto Raptors - NovaScotian
60. San Antonio Spurs - Brevity

-Jason

[mattman91]

Sorry for the delay...I have been "on the clock" in more than one way...

This pick wasn't nearly as easy as it seems, but a talent like Randle can't be passed on at the 9th pick. We went with who we believe is the best available, even though we desperately need a shooter/scorer. Luckily, we have another 1st round pick and a few guys on our radar that we feel will be around at the 24th pick that can fill the void at that role. There were some rumors about his foot surgery not going well, but those allegations were shot down from both Julius and his mother. Even if he does need another surgery, looking at his track record at Kentucky, he played in all 40 games and had no major injuries. Randle already has the body of an NBA PF, and should be able to start from day one. He, along with Al Jefferson, should be able to become one of the best front courts in the league. Jefferson, Randle, Zeller, McRoberts, and Biyombo will give us scoring (Jefferson), rebounding (Randle), defense (Biyombo) and a 'stretch" 4 (McBob).

[mattman91]

Sorry for the delay...I have been "on the clock" in more than one way...

This pick wasn't nearly as easy as it seems, but a talent like Randle can't be passed on at the 9th pick. We went with who we believe is the best available, even though we desperately need a shooter/scorer. Luckily, we have another 1st round pick and a few guys on our radar that we feel will be around at the 24th pick that can fill the void at that role. There were some rumors about his foot surgery not going well, but those allegations were shot down from both Julius and his mother. Even if he does need another surgery, looking at his track record at Kentucky, he played in all 40 games and had no major injuries. Randle already has the body of an NBA PF, and should be able to start from day one. He, along with Al Jefferson, should be able to become one of the best front courts in the league. Jefferson, Randle, Zeller, McRoberts, and Biyombo will give us scoring (Jefferson), rebounding (Randle), defense (Biyombo) and a 'stretch" 4 (McBob).

I did toy with the idea of taking Stauskas, but passed. I feel like Randle is one of the most NBA ready players, and has loads of potential.

[pfrduke]

The Sixers were very much hoping that one more team chose to pass on Julius Randle, but alas that is not to be. Just as we thought there was a clear break between 3 and 4, we also thought there was a clear break between 9 and 10.* Here, unfortunately, we're on the wrong side of the line. We see a lot of viable options with this pick, and for all of them we wish we weren't using the #10 pick of the draft on them. So how did we land where we did?

We considered Dario Saric, but found him duplicative of Parker, presenting many of the same skillsets (offensive versatility and creativity) with many of the same weaknesses (big enough to defend 4? quick enough to defend 3? reliable enough outside shot?). If we thought he was clearly better than the other options, we may have rolled the dice, but we were concerned that a lineup starting Parker at 3 and Saric at 4 would get shredded defensively, even with Noel on the back line.

We considered Rodney Hood quite a bit. We think he's the safest pick here; the most likely to have a long and fruitful NBA career. But we can't shake this nagging concern that taking the two best players off of a team that lost to Mercer in the first round of the NCAA tournament isn't the best approach to team building. And, we're so bad and have such low expectations for next season that we can afford to roll the dice on a riskier choice with a higher upside. We're thinking long term.

We considered Gary Harris. We like his shooting and toughness, we like guys who have come through Tom Izzo's program, and while he's undersized as a 2, we think he can be effective guarding the 1 and MCW's size allows us to play him on shooting guards on the defensive side of the ball. But we are concerned that he's one dimensional on offense and won't be able to get to the rim and we think his athleticism is not sufficiently elite to make him a plus defender.

We briefly considered Stauskas, and we're simply not enamored with his prospects.

So we landed on Zach Levine as a high-risk, high-reward pick. He has a terrific shooting stroke and can jump out of the gym. We love the idea of pairing him with MCW in the back court - it's long, quick, and can be disruptive. We think that Levine is still on the upswing of a high growth curve. He won't turn into Russell Westbrook, but we hope that his development proceeds in similar leaps and bounds. If everything breaks right, we think Levine can be the best player of those we considered, so we're betting on him with the #10 pick.

*to be honest, we thought it was between 8 and 9 with McDermott on the wrong side of that line. We would not have taken McDermott with this pick; we would have taken any of the others that already have been drafted.

[CDu]

Jimmer is too similar to porn-stach Adam Morrison: insanely high scorer for a mid-major who is too one dimensional.

I may be in the minority, but I think this applies to McBuckets. In college, McBuckets torched people by being bigger, smarter, and having an insanely good shot. How is this different than Jimmer or Morrison?

Other players who fit this bill are Wayne Ellington and Doron Lamb: amazing but one-dimension shooters. And they are struggling in the league.

High-usage and high-scoring college players who fit this mold are much more multi-dimensional. The two that come to mind is JJ (good passer, good defender, high IQ, all of which could be seen in college) and Stephen Curry (do-it all offensive player, a lot of which could be seen in college. I have to admit I'm surprised Curry made it to superstar status).

Anywho, I like McBuckets, but I wouldn't draft him in the lottery, especially with such a deep draft.

I see McDermott as a more talented Kyle Korver. Or maybe like a more-efficient Chuck Person. There is a definitely place for a guy like him in the NBA, and it's not on the fringe. There would be a place for a guy like Fredette, too. He just has to find the right team that would use him as a spot-minutes gunner on the second/third unit.

[Henderson]

We considered Dario Saric, but found him duplicative of Parker, presenting many of the same skillsets (offensive versatility and creativity) with many of the same weaknesses (big enough to defend 4? quick enough to defend 3? reliable enough outside shot?). If we thought he was clearly better than the other options, we may have rolled the dice, but we were concerned that a lineup starting Parker at 3 and Saric at 4 would get shredded defensively, even with Noel on the back line.

I've read that Saric may not come over right away. His agent says he wants to play a year or two more in Europe to gain more experience. Seems like an odd thing for an agent to say, since that statement can't help Saric's draft stock. Maybe the agent doesn't understand rookie salary structures in the NBA and thought playing hard to get would help him negotiate a better salary. Then again, maybe he was just being an honest guy.

If a team drafts Saric in 2014, does that team hold Saric's NBA rights indefinitely? And how is salary determined if there is a delay between draft year and the first NBA year? if Saric decides to play in the NBA, say, two years from now, is his salary the 2014 rookie salary for that draft position? The 2016 rookie salary for that draft position? Or does he get credit for post-draft European play somehow? Or is there some other salary rule for internationals who play in the NBA?

[Kedsy]

But we can't shake this nagging concern that taking the two best players off of a team that lost to Mercer in the first round of the NCAA tournament isn't the best approach to team building.

Do you think an NBA GM would really care about something like this? It would surprise me.

[brevity]

We considered Rodney Hood quite a bit. We think he's the safest pick here; the most likely to have a long and fruitful NBA career. But we can't shake this nagging concern that taking the two best players off of a team that lost to Mercer in the first round of the NCAA tournament isn't the best approach to team building.

Do you think an NBA GM would really care about something like this? It would surprise me.

An NBA GM would not care about Mercer or any of Duke's losses. But he probably would care about being perceived as putting all of his lottery eggs into one Duke basket. If draft picks are considered investments, then selecting Parker and Hood would show a lack of diversification. Hypothetically speaking, a draft pair of Jabari Parker and Gary Harris would "feel" more successful than a draft pair of Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, if the stats were identical.

Now, if the Sixers or some other team does draft Parker and Hood, and they blow up the NBA with their psychic twin abilities, I'm happy to be wrong.

ETA: Maybe Gary Harris isn't the best example. I was looking for an established wing that could plausibly be selected in the lottery. But the combine measurements have Harris almost 5 inches shorter than Hood.

[CDu]

An NBA GM would not care about Mercer or any of Duke's losses. But he probably would care about being perceived as putting all of his lottery eggs into one Duke basket. If draft picks are considered investments, then selecting Parker and Hood would show a lack of diversification. Hypothetically speaking, a draft pair of Jabari Parker and Gary Harris would "feel" more successful than a draft pair of Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, if the stats were identical.

Now, if the Sixers or some other team does draft Parker and Hood, and they blow up the NBA with their psychic twin abilities, I'm happy to be wrong.

ETA: Maybe Gary Harris isn't the best example. I was looking for an established wing that could plausibly be selected in the lottery. But the combine measurements have Harris almost 5 inches shorter than Hood.

Interestingly, Harris is considered a lottery pick by almost everyone, while Hood's value ranges from late-lottery to late-first round. I find this strange because the two players essentially play the same position (SG), with similar skill sets (Hood a better ballhandler, Harris a better defender). But as you noted, Hood is 5 inches taller and has a 7" standing reach advantage. Harris is an undersized SG. Hood is a perfectly-sized SG/SF.

[pfrduke]

Do you think an NBA GM would really care about something like this? It would surprise me.

It was a shorthand way of saying that I've seen how these two play together and it raises concerns about pairing them up again. There were clear defensive problems, and both will be asked to defend quicker people in the NBA than they were in college. While both are very talented offensive players, I'm not sure their offensive skill sets mesh perfectly with each other - at least not so much as to overcome the defensive issues.

And, to be clear, my concerns are not giant red flag concerns. As I said, I thought long and hard about Hood here. But there's enough suggesting that, while they are two great players in their own right, they may not be the best fit, combined with the appeal of Levine's upside, to tip the scales slightly toward Levine.

[mattman91]

I think the Nuggets GM fell asleep...

[Henderson]

I think the Nuggets GM fell asleep...

Hey, at least the Nuggets GM didn't get his president of basketball operations fired by picking Julius Randle today.

[awhom111]

I've read that Saric may not come over right away. His agent says he wants to play a year or two more in Europe to gain more experience. Seems like an odd thing for an agent to say, since that statement can't help Saric's draft stock. Maybe the agent doesn't understand rookie salary structures in the NBA and thought playing hard to get would help him negotiate a better salary. Then again, maybe he was just being an honest guy.

If a team drafts Saric in 2014, does that team hold Saric's NBA rights indefinitely? And how is salary determined if there is a delay between draft year and the first NBA year? if Saric decides to play in the NBA, say, two years from now, is his salary the 2014 rookie salary for that draft position? The 2016 rookie salary for that draft position? Or does he get credit for post-draft European play somehow? Or is there some other salary rule for internationals who play in the NBA?

Rights are held indefinitely unless they are renounced. If you do not sign for three years, you are not bound by any rookie scale (which is why the Mirotic rumors have always been strong for this specific summer). I am not sure about signing between now and three years.

Agents play all kinds of games, some of which work better than others. He may be trying to dissuade certain teams to let Saric drop to a specific team whose situation he likes. Most people assumed that he would not come over immediately anyways.

[brevity]

I think the Nuggets GM fell asleep...

The Alaskan Bear doesn't sleep. He hibernates. Do not poke him!

[theAlaskanBear]

The Nuggets have depth, and need shooting. But we can in improve in many areas and will take the best player available. Jusuf Nurkic is a load on the blocks, and was one of the most efficient bigs in Europe. Only 19, he has a lot of room for improvement, but is a naturally skilled offensive player. At 6-11 with a 7'2'' wingspan and 270 pounds, no one will be able to move him off the block. He shoots an extremely good percentage and is a solid free throw shooter. We think he will become a knockdown baseline/midrange shooter. With better conditioning and more discipline on defense he can be one of the better PFs/centers in the league. Plus, this gives us more competition for McGee Vesely and Mozgov. We can go big and we can go deep (or move some of these bigman assets).

[Ichabod Drain]

Jimmer is too similar to porn-stach Adam Morrison: insanely high scorer for a mid-major who is too one dimensional.

I may be in the minority, but I think this applies to McBuckets. In college, McBuckets torched people by being bigger, smarter, and having an insanely good shot. How is this different than Jimmer or Morrison?

Other players who fit this bill are Wayne Ellington and Doron Lamb: amazing but one-dimension shooters. And they are struggling in the league.

High-usage and high-scoring college players who fit this mold are much more multi-dimensional. The two that come to mind is JJ (good passer, good defender, high IQ, all of which could be seen in college) and Stephen Curry (do-it all offensive player, a lot of which could be seen in college. I have to admit I'm surprised Curry made it to superstar status).

Anywho, I like McBuckets, but I wouldn't draft him in the lottery, especially with such a deep draft.

Adam Morrison averaged 12 points his rookie season and had five 25 point games. He blew out his ACL at the beginning of his second season and was never the same. Probably wouldn't of been an All-Star but would of had a decent career.

[awhom111]

The Nuggets have depth, and need shooting. But we can in improve in many areas and will take the best player available. Jusuf Nurkic is a load on the blocks, and was one of the most efficient bigs in Europe. Only 19, he has a lot of room for improvement, but is a naturally skilled offensive player. At 6-11 with a 7'2'' wingspan and 270 pounds, no one will be able to move him off the block. He shoots an extremely good percentage and is a solid free throw shooter. We think he will become a knockdown baseline/midrange shooter. With better conditioning and more discipline on defense he can be one of the better PFs/centers in the league. Plus, this gives us more competition for McGee Vesely and Mozgov. We can go big and we can go deep (or move some of these bigman assets).

Interesting to see Nurkic drafted ahead of Saric by our draft. I guess he benefitted from being Nolan's teammate and beating Saric this past week. Vesely is probably on his way back to Europe, but noise around the Nuggets suggest that they will probably try to bring Joffrey "Don't call me Lannister" Lauvergne over to play the 4/5. The team certainly has some interesting Euro-stash (remember Virginia Tech star Erick Green?) and this would certainly add to it.

[Duvall]

With the 12th pick in the 2014 DBR Mock Draft, the Orlando Magic stay international and select Dario Saric, SF/PF from Croatia. We would have considered a center like Nurkic if he were still available, but are happy to land one of the toolsier prospects in this draft to pair with our versatile young backcourt.

[theAlaskanBear]

Interesting to see Nurkic drafted ahead of Saric by our draft. I guess he benefitted from being Nolan's teammate and beating Saric this past week. Vesely is probably on his way back to Europe, but noise around the Nuggets suggest that they will probably try to bring Joffrey "Don't call me Lannister" Lauvergne over to play the 4/5. The team certainly has some interesting Euro-stash (remember Virginia Tech star Erick Green?) and this would certainly add to it.

We are happy with Gallinari/Fournier (provided Gal can get healthy), and also the "team engineering" that Saric's agent is trying to manipulate gave us pause.