Originally Posted by
burnspbesq
After back-to-back national championships (and three in five seasons), friends of Duke lacrosse can be excused if the Annual Worrying About Next Year seems to have become a familiar ritual. Every year, it seems, we say thanks and farewell to a group of senior contributors who played big roles in the team’s success, and wonder who among the returnees and the incoming freshman will step up and step into the vacated positions.
Last year at this time, the big worry was about the midfield position; we felt pretty good about the attack and the defense. This year, it’s the reverse: the midfield looks like Duke’s strength going into 2015, while both ends of the field raise large questions.
Who’s Leaving. Duke was essentially a 24-man team in 2014, with a regular rotation of 21 and three others who got meaningful minutes. Of that group, nine are lost to graduation: Jordan Wolf and Josh Dionne on attack, Christian Walsh from the offensive midfield, LSM Luke Duprey, SSDM Charlie Payton, face-off artist Brendan Fowler, and the entire starting close D of Henry Lobb, Chris Hipps, and Casey Carroll. Wolf’s 103-point output and Fowler’s dominance at the dot will be hardest to replace, but Lobb was among the nation’s elite shut-down cover guys, Dionne was a lethal inside finisher, Duprey was a force on defense and as a wing on faceoffs, and Payton and Carroll were invaluable glue guys. Walsh may have been the unsung hero of the senior group: he facilitated the emergence of Myles Jones and Deemer Class (both of who broke Dave Lawson’s single-season midfield scoring record) in a host of ways both obvious and subtle.
Duke loses 46.8 percent of its goals scored, 60.6 percent of its caused turnovers, and 94.7 percent of its faceoff wins. That, ladies and gents, is a lot of production heading out the door.
Who’s Back. Fifteen players who played regular or semi-regular minutes return. On attack, Case Matheis will have his turn in the spotlight; he was Inside Lacrosse’s top-rated recruit in 2012, and he has shown signs of being able to step up to elite status. Five of the six offensive midfielders return, led by Jones and Class, who combined for 128 goals. The entire second midfield of Kyle Keenan, Jack Bruckner, and Chad Cohan, who collectively chipped in 39 goals (including Keenan’s six at attack on Championship Weekend) returns. Brian Dailey, who stepped in beautifully after Duprey went down for the season in the Virginia game, returns at LSM, along with Jamie Ikeda who split time between LSM and close D (Ikeda stepped in early in the year when Lobb missed time due to injury), and Ethan Powley who looked good in limited minutes. At SSDM, Will Haus, who for my money was the best player in all of college lacrosse in May (don’t believe me? Ask Quint), and Thomas Zenker return, along with Greg Rhodes, who impressed in spot duty. Jack Rowe went 11-25 at the dot in limited mop-up duty. Chris Coady and Brian Dunne looked good in limited minutes on D, and Ian Yanulis was a fixture on the man-down unit. Both keepers who saw time will be back, as will Danny Fowler, who redshirted and who Coach Danowski said might have been our best in net.
Who’s Arriving. A large and massively talented group of recruits will be joining the program in the fall. Justin Guterding (Garden City, NY/Garden City), a 2013 Under Armour All-American, arrives after a post-graduate year; he’s a deadly off-ball finisher in the Quinzani/Dionne tradition. Attackman Mitch Russell put up big numbers in high school, including a six-goal outburst in his state championship game, but he did it in the renowned lacrosse hotbed of Fort Mill, South Carolina; we’ll have to see whether he can contribute at the ACC level in the short term.
The incoming group features three outstanding midfielders: Matthew Giampetroni from Michigan, David Gill from New Jersey, and Jake Seau from San Diego. All of these young men appear fully capable of playing (as the ACC cliché goes) “big-boy lacrosse.” The incoming poles are led by defenseman Greg Pelton from the Philadelphia area, the consensus best pole in the Class of 2018, elite LSM Peter Welch from the Delbarton School in New Jersey, and James Riley, a highly regarded cover guy from Minnesota.
What to Look For in 2015. In the various way-too-early top 10/20/25s, Duke has been slotted anywhere from two to seven (FWIW, I have them at five). There is enormous talent, but much of it is untested, and guys are going to have to find their roles and grow into them quickly. Here’s what I think the rotation will look like in 2015.
Attack: Matheis, Guterding, and Cohan will start. Russell and Connelly will provide depth. In case of injury, Keenan will move up from midfield.
Offensive midfield: Jones, Class, and Bruckner will comprise the first unit. Keenan, Zenker, and Giampetroni will comprise the second unit. This year’s third unit of Scott, Shaffer, and Transou will remain intact, but will again be used sparingly.
D-mids: Dailey will be the primary LSM. Welch and Powley will both play meaningful minutes. Haus, Seau, Gill, and Rhodes will be the SSDM rotation, and with that much elite athleticism we will run in transition like you haven’t seen in a long time.
Face-off: Your guess is as good as mine. As the sole returnee, Rowe has the inside track, but I expect there will be a lot of experimenting in the fall, and the position may not be solidified until well into the season.
Defense: Ikeda and Pelton are probably locks to start. I’d say Dunne has the inside track for the third spot, but it could turn out to be Riley, Yanulis, or freshman Jack Harrington from Connecticut. If he doesn’t start, Riley may take Yanulis’ spot as the man-down specialist.
Goal: Wide open among Fowler, Aaron, and Turri. Given his athleticism and stick skills, Turri might end up at midfield rather than as a third-string keeper.
Is it February yet?