Recruiting ranking, experience, and playing time at Duke

[CDu]

Marshall averaged 6.2 fouls per 40 minutes last season (by far the highest rate of his Duke career). But even at that rate, on average he could play 32 minutes before fouling out. I'm not particularly worried about fouls being a major issue with Marshall.

For a guy his size, though, CDu is right. He's a very mediocre defensive rebounder. Has been his whole time at Duke.

That said, his advanced metrics in 2014-15 were pretty good. He had an outrageously good eFG%, led the team in BPM (Box Plus Minus, not to be confused with the Plus/Minus stats we banter about here), and is 2nd among returning Duke players in win shares per 40, though his PER was only OK.

If Marshall continues to improve the way he has so far, he has the potential to contribute more than 10 or 15 mpg, although with so much competition for the big man minutes, he may still end up in that range. But despite the old adage about the inability to teach height, I'll be surprised if any NBA team gives him a serious look.

To be fair, his high eFG% was because he rarely shot unless it was a dunk attempt. His usage% had to be extremely low. He's a guy who knows his role and stays within his lane, so to speak. What he does, he does really well. He's kind of a quintessential backup big man. He can give you 10-15 minutes of solid defense and occasional highlight plays athletically, but he's not a guy whose game is well suited to play major minutes.

If he were a better defensive rebounder, I'd say he could be a solid option to start at C for a team loaded with offense at the 1-4 spots. In that role, he could be a screen setter and chase offensive rebounds (he's relatively a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder) and get occasional garbage dunks. But he's not strong as a defensive rebounder, which means you have to pair him with a stronger defensive rebounder if you are going to play him big minutes. And our strongest defensive rebounders (Jefferson and Obi) aren't big offensive players. So we'd be playing a fairly offensively-challenged lineup if Plumlee plays a lot.

[kAzE]

To be fair, his high eFG% was because he rarely shot unless it was a dunk attempt. His usage% had to be extremely low. He's a guy who knows his role and stays within his lane, so to speak. What he does, he does really well. He's kind of a quintessential backup big man. He can give you 10-15 minutes of solid defense and occasional highlight plays athletically, but he's not a guy whose game is well suited to play major minutes.

If he were a better defensive rebounder, I'd say he could be a solid option to start at C for a team loaded with offense at the 1-4 spots. In that role, he could be a screen setter and chase offensive rebounds (he's relatively a better offensive rebounder than defensive rebounder) and get occasional garbage dunks. But he's not strong as a defensive rebounder, which means you have to pair him with a stronger defensive rebounder if you are going to play him big minutes. And our strongest defensive rebounders (Jefferson and Obi) aren't big offensive players. So we'd be playing a fairly offensively-challenged lineup if Plumlee plays a lot.

Well . . . I wouldn't consider Jefferson to be a MUCH better rebounder . . . he's a career 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, while MP3 is at 8.9. Plus, he's certainly not as good of a rim protector as MP3, so defensively, I believe it's a wash. Offensively, Jefferson is more skilled with the ball certainly, but MP3 at least grabs a good share of offensive boards and is always a lob away from an alley oop. My point was IF he shows even more improvement, he could earn a bigger role. I'm going on faith that he's improved, not on what he's shown us to this point. Like the cliche says, you can't teach size, and he'll always have that advantage over Obi and Jefferson.

[CDu]

Well . . . I wouldn't consider Jefferson to be a MUCH better rebounder . . . he's a career 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, while MP3 is at 8.9. Plus, he's certainly not as good of a rim protector as MP3, so defensively, I believe it's a wash. Offensively, Jefferson is more skilled with the ball certainly, but MP3 at least grabs a good share of offensive boards and is always a lob away from an alley oop. My point was IF he shows even more improvement, he could earn a bigger role. I'm going on faith that he's improved, not on what he's shown us to this point. Like the cliche says, you can't teach size, and he'll always have that advantage over Obi and Jefferson.

I said Jefferson is a much better defensive rebounder than Plumlee. And that is true. It is also true that Plumlee is a better offensive rebounder than Jefferson, which offsets some of the difference in rebounding. But I was talking about defensive rebounding.

[kAzE]

I said Jefferson is a much better defensive rebounder than Plumlee. And that is true. It is also true that Plumlee is a better offensive rebounder than Jefferson, which offsets some of the difference in rebounding. But I was talking about defensive rebounding.

I think it makes sense . . . Plumlee goes for more blocks than Jefferson on defense (which he should), and it's naturally more difficult to be in position for rebounds when you are challenging shots rather than boxing out. However, I'll always have some painful memories of easy defensive rebounds that MP3 could have secured if he didn't have bricks for hands. But I think his hands improved last year . . . and I'm hoping he's gotten even better this year. I really sincerely thought he showed some flashes of being a great defensive player last year. He's certainly not on the level of either of his older brothers as a rebounder, so here's to hoping he's a late bloomer.

[CDu]

I think it makes sense . . . Plumlee goes for more blocks than Jefferson on defense (which he should), and it's naturally more difficult to be in position for rebounds when you are challenging shots rather than boxing out. However, I'll always have some painful memories of easy defensive rebounds that MP3 could have secured if he didn't have bricks for hands. But I think his hands improved last year . . . and I'm hoping he's gotten even better this year. I really sincerely thought he showed some flashes of being a great defensive player last year. He's certainly not on the level of either of his older brothers as a rebounder, so here's to hoping he's a late bloomer.

I totally agree. Plumlee's defensive rebounding certainly suffers by going for blocked shots (as is the case for a lot of shotblockers) and his not-so-good hands. But as you said he is steadily improving. I just don't know if he'll improve enough to be more than a 10-15 mpg guy at Duke by this year, especially given the crowd we have in the frontcourt this year.

[Kedsy]

Well . . . I wouldn't consider Jefferson to be a MUCH better rebounder . . . he's a career 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes, while MP3 is at 8.9. Plus, he's certainly not as good of a rim protector as MP3, so defensively, I believe it's a wash. Offensively, Jefferson is more skilled with the ball certainly, but MP3 at least grabs a good share of offensive boards and is always a lob away from an alley oop. My point was IF he shows even more improvement, he could earn a bigger role. I'm going on faith that he's improved, not on what he's shown us to this point. Like the cliche says, you can't teach size, and he'll always have that advantage over Obi and Jefferson.

I understand the relationship between blocks and defensive rebounds, although it's not like Marshall has been Olajuwon or anything. Still, in the past two seasons, Marshall's defensive rebounding percentage (a better guide than rebounds per minute) was 14.1% and 15.6%. Amile's defensive rebounding percentage in those two seasons was 21.5% and 18.0%. That's "MUCH better," at least in my mind.

[kAzE]

I understand the relationship between blocks and defensive rebounds, although it's not like Marshall has been Olajuwon or anything. Still, in the past two seasons, Marshall's defensive rebounding percentage (a better guide than rebounds per minute) was 14.1% and 15.6%. Amile's defensive rebounding percentage in those two seasons was 21.5% and 18.0%. That's "MUCH better," at least in my mind.

Fair, but I'd like to see some advanced stats for opponent's FG% at the rim when Plumlee is at center vs when Jefferson is at center. It's probably not a big sample size, but I'd be interested to see if Plumlee's defensive presence is a real thing or not. I know Cameron has SportsVU, but I wasn't able to find any stats online. For some reason, I just remember being pleasantly surprised several times last year at how effective we were as a team on both ends when Okafor was on the bench and Plumlee on the floor. Maybe I'm imagining things, or maybe it was just some hot shooting by someone else, but some numbers to back this up would have been nice . . . I'll try to keep digging.

[Kedsy]

Fair, but I'd like to see some advanced stats for opponent's FG% at the rim when Plumlee is at center vs when Jefferson is at center. It's probably not a big sample size, but I'd be interested to see if Plumlee's defensive presence is a real thing or not. I know Cameron has SportsVU, but I wasn't able to find any stats online. For some reason, I just remember being pleasantly surprised several times last year at how effective we were as a team on both ends when Okafor was on the bench and Plumlee on the floor. Maybe I'm imagining things, or maybe it was just some hot shooting by someone else, but some numbers to back this up would have been nice . . . I'll try to keep digging.

I agree with you that Marshall's defense was pretty effective in 2014-15. It remains to be seen how offensively challenged we might be with two of Marshall, Amile, Sean, and/or Chase playing together. If Amile got 20+ mpg in each of the past two seasons (which he did), you'd think he'd get at least that many this year. And if that's true then if the combination of Brandon and Chase play any number of decent minutes at the four, it would mean Marshall will probably play fewer than 20 mpg. And that's not even considering how much Sean might play. We'll have a very deep rotation this year, especially at the big positions.

[kAzE]

I agree with you that Marshall's defense was pretty effective in 2014-15. It remains to be seen how offensively challenged we might be with two of Marshall, Amile, Sean, and/or Chase playing together. If Amile got 20+ mpg in each of the past two seasons (which he did), you'd think he'd get at least that many this year. And if that's true then if the combination of Brandon and Chase play any number of decent minutes at the four, it would mean Marshall will probably play fewer than 20 mpg. And that's not even considering how much Sean might play. We'll have a very deep rotation this year, especially at the big positions.

Yeah, that's the thing . . . they way I see it, playing any 2 of those guys together is going to create spacing issues. That's why I think Ingram at the 4 is the key. The reason I'm campaigning for Plumlee is probably more based on my lack of knowledge about Sean Obi and Chase Jeter. If either of those guys proves to be more than a role player this year, especially defensively, my opinions on Plumlee could change a lot. Jeter is the most interesting because he is the most talented offensively, but I don't expect him to come in and be a great defensive player from the get-go. His ability to score from the post will be valuable, and is unique to this team, so I think ideally, he develops quickly and becomes the #1 big. Obi's size and strength is intriguing, and if he can rebound as effectively in the ACC as he did at Rice, he may play more than I think he will.

I'm not really sure how Jefferson fits into all of this. He's clearly a leader on the team, and the guy I would trust the most in a tight game, but his relative inability to protect the rim or hit a 15 footer really limits the type of lineups we can play when he is on the floor. He may be best utilized as a small ball center with Ingram at the 4, but I would be worried about our rebounding with that group. I hope he's worked HARD on his jump shot over the summer . . . if he could just hit 45% from 10-15 feet, it would really open things up for him and the rest of the team, but we've been holding out hope for 3 years now, so I'm not going to expect it.

Edit: just read this - http://www.scout.com/college/basketb...ter-evaluation

If Jeter can hit that mid ranged jumper . . . perhaps playing him at center with Jefferson at the 4 could be an option. That particular scouting report REALLY praised his rebounding ability, so there may be more to this kid than I gave him credit for.

[sagegrouse]

I dunno. I pretended to swallow Kedsy's model hook, line and sinker. Now I am looking for an explanation of the outliers -- which was that Matt's defense, which gets him on the court at Duke, was under-valued by the RSCI.


BTW, I believe that Matt's gonna play a lot in 2016. Also, Grayson will start -- I mean, K established a NC award because of his play against Wisc.

[Kedsy]

I dunno. I pretended to swallow Kedsy's model hook, line and sinker. Now I am looking for an explanation of the outliers -- which was that Matt's defense, which gets him on the court at Duke, was under-valued by the RSCI.

You may be right about Matt's RSCI, but it's worth noting that before Rasheed left the team, Matt had the fifth-most minutes among Duke's perimeter players. Meaning, he wasn't an outlier.

BTW, I believe that Matt's gonna play a lot in 2016. Also, Grayson will start -- I mean, K established a NC award because of his play against Wisc.

I agree that either Matt or Grayson will start. Possibly both if Brandon starts at PF. But if Brandon doesn't start at PF, then that could possibly push Luke out of the main rotation (as the system suggests).

[luvdahops]

You may be right about Matt's RSCI, but it's worth noting that before Rasheed left the team, Matt had the fifth-most minutes among Duke's perimeter players. Meaning, he wasn't an outlier.



I agree that either Matt or Grayson will start. Possibly both if Brandon starts at PF. But if Brandon doesn't start at PF, then that could possibly push Luke out of the main rotation (as the system suggests).

The one thing to keep in mind about Kennard is that he will likely be our best 3-point threat and best option as a backup PG. Those factors alone should be worth ~15 mpg in my view. While not challenging the validity of the model per se, I am not sure how well it captures such truly differentiated skills. And 15 mpg may be more like a floor if Luke can play solid defense and contribute in other areas.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The one thing to keep in mind about Kennard is that he will likely be our best 3-point threat and best option as a backup PG. Those factors alone should be worth ~15 mpg in my view. While not challenging the validity of the model per se, I am not sure how well it captures such truly differentiated skills. And 15 mpg may be more like a floor if Luke can play solid defense and contribute in other areas.

I don't agree with this. Kennard is indeed a good 3pt shooter, but Matt Jones can to Duke with the exact same expectations. It takes time to adjust to the game. Furthermore, we have very capable 3pt shooters: Grayson, Matt, Brandon, and potentially Thornton (not sure about his 3pt shooting). Secondly, I see Grayson as a more capable PG. His handle is solid, and that's all you really need. Neither Grayson nor Kennard are natural distributors, and they scored a toooon of points in high school. Also, I'm convinced that Thornton will be playing 35 min a game out of necessity. Coach K loves his PGs, and there isn't a legitimate PG outside of Thornton.

I see Kennard as getting squeezed for minutes next year (like Grayson this year). I'd be surprised if he played more than 10 mpg in ACC play. I hope he has a Grayson-type post-season, because that means a) Kennard really developed and, more importantly, b) we went far in the tourney.

[gumbomoop]

The one thing to keep in mind about Kennard is that he will likely be our best 3-point threat and best option as a backup PG. Those factors alone should be worth ~15 mpg in my view. While not challenging the validity of the model per se, I am not sure how well it captures such truly differentiated skills. And 15 mpg may be more like a floor if Luke can play solid defense and contribute in other areas.

I don't agree with this. Kennard is indeed a good 3pt shooter, but Matt Jones can to Duke with the exact same expectations. It takes time to adjust to the game. Furthermore, we have very capable 3pt shooters: Grayson, Matt, Brandon, and potentially Thornton (not sure about his 3pt shooting). Secondly, I see Grayson as a more capable PG. His handle is solid, and that's all you really need. Neither Grayson nor Kennard are natural distributors...

We have an ongoing, friendly, but fundamental, difference of opinion on several EK threads re Luke Kennard, nicely exemplified here by luvdahops and fdd.

I disageee with fdd's assessment of Grayson v. Luke as backup PGs. I look forward to Grayson's powerful drives to the hoop, and to what I think will be his solid 3-pt %. But I do not see him as a more capable PG than Luke, precisely because Grayson is nowhere near the natural distributor that Luke is. I personally will be disappointed if Grayson needs to play backup PG, as I want to see him shoot and attack, shoot and attack.

Luke, meanwhile, is both a scorer and a distributor. Here are two telling comments about Luke-as-distributor [apologies, in that I have previously cited both of these, but I think they -- and of course I do mean "they" -- do support my and luvdahops' viewpoint]:

(1) Krzyzewski -- "Although he's a scorer, he's an amazing passer, and he's an easy guy to play with. I'm not sure most people would say that a 40 point a game scorer would be easy to play with, but he is."

(2) Capel -- "The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it."

I've no doubt that Matt is superior to Luke as a defender; and Grayson may turn out to be as fierce on D as on getting to the rim. So, yes, I concede that Luke will have to be competent on D, or his minutes will be limited. I think he will be respectable on D, as he's court-aware on both ends of the court. Like Scheyer, I think, he sees stuff.

I do not contend that Matt and Greyson are incapable of making make some nice passes. But I do contend that we'll regularly see some beauties from Luke. I trust his teammates will be ready. Because if he doesn't shoot it, he's gonna move it.

[Kedsy]

Here are two telling comments about Luke-as-distributor [apologies, in that I have previously cited both of these, but I think they -- and of course I do mean "they" -- do support my and luvdahops' viewpoint]:

(1) Krzyzewski -- "Although he's a scorer, he's an amazing passer, and he's an easy guy to play with. I'm not sure most people would say that a 40 point a game scorer would be easy to play with, but he is."

(2) Capel -- "The ball doesn't get stuck in his hands. He either shoots it or he moves it."

At this point, I don't think we can form a reliable opinion of Luke's abilities compared to our other perimeter players. We just won't know until we see him in the Fall.

But I would caution against putting too much stock in quotes like the above, especially when made before the guy even sets foot on campus. I seem to recall Coach K saying very positive things about Alex Murphy, for example. And I believe the assistant coaches were raving over Marty Pocius, the summer before his freshman year. I'm not saying Luke is analogous to Alex or Marty, just that you shouldn't take throwaway comments made when a kid's in high school and expect those comments to accurately predict freshman year playing time.

[gumbomoop]

At this point, I don't think we can form a reliable opinion of Luke's abilities compared to our other perimeter players. We just won't know until we see him in the Fall.

But I would caution against putting too much stock in quotes like the above, especially when made before the guy even sets foot on campus. I seem to recall Coach K saying very positive things about Alex Murphy, for example. And I believe the assistant coaches were raving over Marty Pocius, the summer before his freshman year. I'm not saying Luke is analogous to Alex or Marty, just that you shouldn't take throwaway comments made when a kid's in high school and expect those comments to accurately predict freshman year playing time.

We have a slight disagreement here. I concede that I'm not totally, totally certain about how much stock to put into the two statements I cited. All coaches, I guess, have good to wonderful things to say about signees. Still, I sense that the coaches not only think but are quietly confident that Luke has a combination of talents that the recruiting gurus have undervalued.

Further, my post wasn't specifically about playing time per se, but about taking a position on Luke's talent as a passer and distributor, in particular as compared to Matt and Grayson re these skills. Because the Krzyzewski and Capel comments seem to confirm my own eye-test assessment [all on TV, a couple of Franklin HS games, 3 all-star games this spring, and snippets of USA 2014 summer games] of Luke's passing/court vision, naturally I take them as something other than throwaway lines. I'd probably take notice of such comments even had I never seen Luke play. But I, and others, have, mostly against high level HS competition.

Although you're right that we can't yet form fully reliable opinions comparing Luke with Grayson or Matt, we can form educated-guess opinions. Now seems a good season -- off -- to engage in such educated guessing, and particularly on a thread that invites conversation on how gurus have assessed talented HS seniors. As you yourself have noted in a couple of recent posts, Luke presents an interesting test of your "standard model."

[Troublemaker]

I disageee with fdd's assessment of Grayson v. Luke as backup PGs.

Let's also not rule out the possibility of Luke eventually just beating out Derryck for the starting slot. I make Derryck the favorite, sure, but I don't think that's a done deal. Don't allow me to edge out in front of you in Luke-love, gumbo. That would make me uncomfortable. You deserve the pole position.

[Kedsy]

Let's also not rule out the possibility of Luke eventually just beating out Derryck for the starting slot.

Can we rule out the possibility of Justin Robinson beating out Brandon Ingram for a starting slot? Just asking. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Let's also not rule out the possibility of Luke eventually just beating out Derryck for the starting slot. I make Derryck the favorite, sure, but I don't think that's a done deal. Don't allow me to edge out in front of you in Luke-love, gumbo. That would make me uncomfortable. You deserve the pole position.

I'm conceding the PG position to Thornton, and I see the only ways this not happening is a) Thornton doesn't enroll at Duke (nooooooooooooo!!!) or b) Thornton gets injured (nooooooooooooooo!!!).

It's not that I think Thornton is already awesome (I'm sure he'll be good), but I just don't Kennard's strength as bringing the ball up. Kennard is a shooter, a passer, and a very cerebral player. He's Scheyer 2.0. And Scheyer as a freshman didn't pass a ton (1.8 apg). I admit that Scheyer didn't play much PG as a freshman, but there isn't a law about SGs not being allowed to pass.

I am convinced that Thornton starts the season and ends the season as a starter at the PG (and Ingram starts and ends the season as either a 3 or 4). Outside of that, I don't know.

Also, given Coach K's love of shortened rotations, someone is getting squeezed. It's an inevitability. We have nine players commanding minutes: Thornton, Grayson, Jones, Kennard, Ingram, Jefferson, Jeter, MP3, and Obi. Who is playing less than 10 min in ACC play?

[CDu]

I'm conceding the PG position to Thornton, and I see the only ways this not happening is a) Thornton doesn't enroll at Duke (nooooooooooooo!!!) or b) Thornton gets injured (nooooooooooooooo!!!).

It's not that I think Thornton is already awesome (I'm sure he'll be good), but I just don't Kennard's strength as bringing the ball up. Kennard is a shooter, a passer, and a very cerebral player. He's Scheyer 2.0. And Scheyer as a freshman didn't pass a ton (1.8 apg). I admit that Scheyer didn't play much PG as a freshman, but there isn't a law about SGs not being allowed to pass.

I am convinced that Thornton starts the season and ends the season as a starter at the PG (and Ingram starts and ends the season as either a 3 or 4). Outside of that, I don't know.

Also, given Coach K's love of shortened rotations, someone is getting squeezed. It's an inevitability. We have nine players commanding minutes: Thornton, Grayson, Jones, Kennard, Ingram, Jefferson, Jeter, MP3, and Obi. Who is playing less than 10 min in ACC play?

I do agree with you that Thornton should be considered the heavy favorite to start at PG. But in this day and age (where so many different players can handle the ball), I don't think bringing the ball up the court is the key attribute for a PG. It's creating easier shots for himself and/or teammates. I'm quite sure that Thornton, Allen, Kennard, and even Ingram can each handle bringing the ball up the court. And given that we will have 3 (or 4) capable ballhandlers on the court at all times, I'm not concerned about the press. It's what happens in the half court offense that is where the value of a PG comes into play.

That's why I don't see a guy like Allen being a real option as a PG. His game appears to be that of a predator, ears pinned back with tunnel vision going at the basket trying to score. He's not best suited to patiently survey the floor and set up offense for others. Now, I'm not sure how good Thornton will be at that right away, but the fact that he has played PG throughout his career gives me hope that he's further along in that regard than any of our others.