2014 NBA Draft

[TexHawk]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder...heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

My thoughts are on record, and I don't want to lose any more friends over it. I will just say that if you really think that Wiggins/Parker are close in defensive ability, well, um... I will admit to being an irrational fan, but I truly believe that Wiggins should have been the NDPOY last season.

As far as offense goes, it will be hard to convince everyone, because he's being compared to Jabari Parker, who is (without a doubt) a better and more polished offensive player. But Wiggins is no slouch. Outside of Parker and McDermott, he put up better offensive numbers than anyone in this draft. He shot better than Parker after the noncon season was over (where he played the toughest schedule in the country), and had a better ORtg.

[theAlaskanBear]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andr...-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

Yes I saw that. 5 players at the NBA combine jumped 40''+ (two small forwards -- Glen RobIII and Cleanthony Early) and Aaron Gordon hit 39''. Barnes himself was 40''. How do those extra inches translate to the court? If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

[superdave]

Yes I saw that. 5 players at the NBA combine jumped 40''+ (two small forwards -- Glen RobIII and Cleanthony Early) and Aaron Gordon hit 39''. Barnes himself was 40''. How do those extra inches translate to the court? If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

The comp for Wiggins that I see the most is Tracy McGrady. Well, look at McGrady's statistical projection:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...mcgratr01.html

7 to 9 to 15 to 27 points per game his first four years. I think Wiggins averages more than 7 next season. The questions is can he reach the mid 20s by season 4? I bet so. There are not a ton of great 2s and 3s in the league. If he adds a consistent 3-ball, he's going to be top 10 in scoring evenutally, if not top 5.

[TexHawk]

If Wiggins is really so much more dominant athletically, how come he wasn't able to impose his will on the court?

I think you may be reading into the take of analysts too much. "Imposing his will on the court" has been attached to him for months, and there is no way he can get rid it.

Wiggins averaged 17ppg in the 1st or 2nd best cbb conference, and played the toughest nonconference schedule in the country. He was 2nd team AA. He scored 26 points in Gainesville, on the #2 AdjD in the country. He scored 30 on fellow lottery pick Marcus Smart. He imposed his will defensively in every game he played.

He had a bad, uninspired offensive performance at the worst possible time, but it shouldn't negate everything else he did.

P.S. If you are looking for an example of him imposing his will, you should check out the highlights of his game against K-State in February. Down 2 with 5 seconds left, he drove the basket, missed a layup, landed out of bounds, jumped back in bounds to tip in his own shot, before anyone else could get off the ground. That sent the game to OT (where KU eventually lost). I wish I could find video of that play, it was astonishing.

[JasonEvans]

The comp for Wiggins that I see the most is Tracy McGrady. Well, look at McGrady's statistical projection:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...mcgratr01.html

7 to 9 to 15 to 27 points per game his first four years. I think Wiggins averages more than 7 next season. The questions is can he reach the mid 20s by season 4? I bet so. There are not a ton of great 2s and 3s in the league. If he adds a consistent 3-ball, he's going to be top 10 in scoring evenutally, if not top 5.

McGrady came to the NBA out of high school, not as a freshman. So, the logical comparison would be for Wiggins to average 9ppg (as McGrady did in his 2nd NBA season).

-Jason "people forget how good McGrady was -- for about 7 years or so, he was almost certainly among the top 5 players in the game" Evans

[JasonEvans]

P.S. If you are looking for an example of him imposing his will, you should check out the highlights of his game against K-State in February. Down 2 with 5 seconds left, he drove the basket, missed a layup, landed out of bounds, jumped back in bounds to tip in his own shot, before anyone else could get off the ground. That sent the game to OT (where KU eventually lost). I wish I could find video of that play, it was astonishing.

Ask and ye shall receive. It is at the 2:37 mark of this video.

[Kedsy]

Maybe his game will translate to the NBA, but I think its 3-4 years before he is a good offensive player.

First of all, in my opinion, Wiggins and Barnes aren't at all alike. I can't imagine why you think that's the money comparison.

Second, while Wiggins isn't as polished or as strong an offensive player as Jabari, he was a pretty good college offensive player. Here's an offensive statistical comparison of Wiggins and Jabari:

Stat				AW	JP
----				---	---
PPG				17.1	19.1
points per 40			20.8	25.0
Usage				25.4	31.7
oRating				112.3	111.5
eFG%				49.8%	51.1%
true shooting %			56.3%	55.8%
assist %			9.1	8.6
PER				21.4	28.4
win shares per 40		.170	.205
OR%				12.3	11.3

Yeah, Jabari has the advantage, but it's not as big an advantage as you might think, meaning Wiggins was no slouch on offense. And Jabari was generally considered to be one of the best two offensive players in college this season, so it's not so much of a black mark against Wiggins that he's not quite as good an offensive player as Jabari.

Interestingly, one of Jabari's biggest advantages over Wiggins is Jabari is a much better defensive rebounder, with a 23.0 DR%, versus Wiggins's 14.1 DR%. Not sure how well that will translate to the NBA, but you never know.

[theAlaskanBear]

My thoughts are on record, and I don't want to lose any more friends over it. I will just say that if you really think that Wiggins/Parker are close in defensive ability, well, um... I will admit to being an irrational fan, but I truly believe that Wiggins should have been the NDPOY last season.

As far as offense goes, it will be hard to convince everyone, because he's being compared to Jabari Parker, who is (without a doubt) a better and more polished offensive player. But Wiggins is no slouch. Outside of Parker and McDermott, he put up better offensive numbers than anyone in this draft. He shot better than Parker after the noncon season was over (where he played the toughest schedule in the country), and had a better ORtg.

There is no way Wiggins was the defensive player of the year. There is nothing in his stats to suggest or his play to suggest that. He projects to be a good defender, he has the physical tools to be...but in no way was his performance last year worthy of this discussion.

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM (I DQ'd Manning and Wesley due to minutes played or it would have been 9th best). His defensive win shares tied him for first on the team with Embiid, solely because of his minutes/games played numbers. Embiid matches his defensive win shares with half the minutes of Wiggins. He is 5th in block %, 3rd in stl % and 8th in trb %. This is on HIS OWN TEAM (note teh DQ of Manning and Wesley when looking up these stats). How can you make the case for defensive player of the year? It is an irrational projection based on what people expect him to become. Wiggins was an important cog in a very good team defense.

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him. I guess you could make an argument that the Big-12 was such a superior conference that Wiggins numbers don't matter, but I don't have access to Kenpom to make these comparisons easily. Also, the fact that Wiggins' teammates fared far better defensively than he did undermine this suggestion.

These arguments don't even address the offensive side of the ball and the fact that Wiggins' per-40 win shares were a pedestrian .170 good for 4th best on his team (Embiid and Ellis both above .200).

[Kedsy]

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM...

* * *

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him.

You should look up how individual player dRating is calculated. Basically, it's the team dRating adjusted for individual blocks and steals. Thus Jabari's dRating was best on Duke's team because he had the best combination of blocks and steals, and Wiggins's dRating was way worse than Embiid's because Embiid was a blocking machine.

Put another way, dRating is a somewhat useless tool in evaluating a player's defensive abilities or comparing one player's defense to another's. Especially for a player like Jabari, who lurked for blocks and steals at the expense of proper positioning.

[theAlaskanBear]

First of all, in my opinion, Wiggins and Barnes aren't at all alike. I can't imagine why you think that's the money comparison.

Second, while Wiggins isn't as polished or as strong an offensive player as Jabari, he was a pretty good college offensive player. Here's an offensive statistical comparison of Wiggins and Jabari:

Stat				AW	JP
----				---	---
PPG				17.1	19.1
points per 40			20.8	25.0
Usage				25.4	31.7
oRating				112.3	111.5
eFG%				49.8%	51.1%
true shooting %			56.3%	55.8%
assist %			9.1	8.6
PER				21.4	28.4
win shares per 40		.170	.205
OR%				12.3	11.3

Yeah, Jabari has the advantage, but it's not as big an advantage as you might think, meaning Wiggins was no slouch on offense. And Jabari was generally considered to be one of the best two offensive players in college this season, so it's not so much of a black mark against Wiggins that he's not quite as good an offensive player as Jabari.

Interestingly, one of Jabari's biggest advantages over Wiggins is Jabari is a much better defensive rebounder, with a 23.0 DR%, versus Wiggins's 14.1 DR%. Not sure how well that will translate to the NBA, but you never know.

FG-FGA-FG%-2P-2PA-2P%-3P-3PA-3P%-FT-FTA-FT%-TRB-AST-STL-BLK-TO-PF-PTS
8.0 18.5 .430 5.9 12.5 .469 2.1 6.0 .349 4.3 5.8 .734 7.5 1.7 1.2 0.5 2.7 2.5 22.3
6.6 14.7 .448 5.1 10.3 .493 1.5 4.4 .341 6.1 7.9 .775 7.1 1.9 1.4 1.2 2.8 3.3 20.8

per-40 stats. both 6-8 wings with freakish athleticism and reputation for being laid-back personalities and passive on offense. Wiggins is more efficient offensively, probably because of his athleticism around the basket.

PER-TS%-eFG%-orb%-drb%-trb%-ast%-stl%-blk%-to%-usg%-Ortg-Drtg-OWS-DWS-TWS-WS/40
20.3 .524 .487 7.1 11.9 9.5 8.4 1.7 1.3 11.1 27.3 109.9 96.4 5.6 3.9 9.4 .171
21.4 .563 .499 8.4 12.3 10.4 9.2 2.1 3.1 13.1 26.3 116.1 102.8 3.2 1.7 4.9 .170

advanced stats. both mediocre to poor rebounders, meh %'s, winshares.

Why is this a poor comparison?? They are very similar statistically.

PS I never figured out how to table stats. but I think its clear how close they are.

[theAlaskanBear]

You should look up how individual player dRating is calculated. Basically, it's the team dRating adjusted for individual blocks and steals. Thus Jabari's dRating was best on Duke's team because he had the best combination of blocks and steals, and Wiggins's dRating was way worse than Embiid's because Embiid was a blocking machine.

Put another way, dRating is a somewhat useless tool in evaluating a player's defensive abilities or comparing one player's defense to another's. Especially for a player like Jabari, who lurked for blocks and steals at the expense of proper positioning.

The point of Drtg was not that Jabari is a better defender than Wiggins, but that Wiggins elite athleticism doesn't create a dominant player or production on the court. If Wiggins is such a superior defender with such elite athleticism, why is it so invisible statistically?

[Kedsy]

Why is this a poor comparison?? They are very similar statistically.

It's a poor comparison because they had completely different playing styles. Barnes for long stretches just hung out on the perimeter taking threes. Wiggins was more of a slasher. Barnes took a higher percentage of his team's shots (a little over 29% for his career while Wiggins took 26.7% of his team's shots this season), relied a lot more on the three (28.3% of his career points were from three-pointers, vs. 21.6% for Wiggins), and got to the line a lot less (career FT rate of 31.5% vs. 53.7% for Wiggins).

And comparing players with different styles and skill sets is especially difficult if you're attempting to predict NBA success, because different styles and skill sets translate differently at the higher level. I just don't think Barnes is a decent comp for Wiggins at all.

[TexHawk]

There is no way Wiggins was the defensive player of the year. There is nothing in his stats to suggest or his play to suggest that. He projects to be a good defender, he has the physical tools to be...but in no way was his performance last year worthy of this discussion.

Lets look at it this way. Wiggins has a Drating of 102.8 with was 7th best on HIS TEAM (I DQ'd Manning and Wesley due to minutes played or it would have been 9th best). His defensive win shares tied him for first on the team with Embiid, solely because of his minutes/games played numbers. Embiid matches his defensive win shares with half the minutes of Wiggins. He is 5th in block %, 3rd in stl % and 8th in trb %. This is on HIS OWN TEAM (note teh DQ of Manning and Wesley when looking up these stats). How can you make the case for defensive player of the year? It is an irrational projection based on what people expect him to become. Wiggins was an important cog in a very good team defense.

Now lets look at Parker. For all the crap his reputation gets on the defensive side of the ball, he led Duke with a 99.3 Drtg. He is better shot blocker than Wiggins, matches his stl% and is a better rebounder. 1.9 defensive win shares as opposed to 1.7 for Wiggins.

What the numbers suggest are that Parker was the best defensive player on a poor defensive team (and sometimes played out of position as the primary big man), while Wiggins was good defender (but not as good as Parker?) with really outstanding defensive players around him. I guess you could make an argument that the Big-12 was such a superior conference that Wiggins numbers don't matter, but I don't have access to Kenpom to make these comparisons easily. Also, the fact that Wiggins' teammates fared far better defensively than he did undermine this suggestion.

These arguments don't even address the offensive side of the ball and the fact that Wiggins' per-40 win shares were a pedestrian .170 good for 4th best on his team (Embiid and Ellis both above .200).

I don't know what KU team you were watching this year, but outside of Wiggins and Embiid (when he was on the floor), every other player was a below average defender. The starting PG, Tharpe, probably couldn't guard my sister. The team, as a whole, was tremendously awful at forcing turnovers (292nd in the country). They finished #31 in AdjD, which is the worst defensive performance in Bill Self's KU career. KU had been Top-10 in AdjD every year since 2005, #1 in 2007 and 2008. The 2014 defense would have been monstrously bad without Wiggins.

I don't really believe he could have won the NDPOY, because all of these awards are stats-based. Wiggins doesn't get steals/blocks, he's a perimeter defender with a tremendous first jump, to get his hand in the face of an opposing shooter without fouling. That will translate to the NBA immediately.

I just think he was the best defensive player I saw all season, and there isn't anyone else I would take over him. (Though Josh Heustis was awesome when locked Wiggins down in St. Louis.)

[Kedsy]

The point of Drtg was not that Jabari is a better defender than Wiggins, but that Wiggins elite athleticism doesn't create a dominant player or production on the court. If Wiggins is such a superior defender with such elite athleticism, why is it so invisible statistically?

Because steals and blocks are pretty much the only defensive stats out there, and they do a fairly poor job of showing superior defensive abilities.

[theAlaskanBear]

It's a poor comparison because they had completely different playing styles. Barnes for long stretches just hung out on the perimeter taking threes. Wiggins was more of a slasher. Barnes took a higher percentage of his team's shots (a little over 29% for his career while Wiggins took 26.7% of his team's shots this season), relied a lot more on the three (28.3% of his career points were from three-pointers, vs. 21.6% for Wiggins), and got to the line a lot less (career FT rate of 31.5% vs. 53.7% for Wiggins).

And comparing players with different styles and skill sets is especially difficult if you're attempting to predict NBA success, because different styles and skill sets translate differently at the higher level. I just don't think Barnes is a decent comp for Wiggins at all.

You may see them as completely different players, but I think its just a difference of degrees. He's more athletic than Barnes, so better at finishing around the rim and drawing contact. I will be really interested to hear about Wiggins speed and lateral quickness as the draft process moves forward. This is where I miss Wiggins doing some of the combine drills. Also I am interested to see how well he adds muscle. If he plans on playing SF, he will need another 20-30 pounds. Most NBA small forwards are 6'7''+ and 230+ pounds...he will be going against these guys from day one.

I just think Wiggins is looking at a lot more development. He is not an instant star or superstar. Embiid will have a bigger defensive impact, Parker will have a bigger offensive impact, and guys like Aaron Gordon and Noah Vonleh could wind up to be just as good defenders and better offensive players.

[kAzE]

I don't quite see the McGrady comparison, because I just don't envision Wiggins becoming the type of shot-maker T-Mac was at his prime. Wiggins will probably never lead the league in scoring, but defensively, he's probably going to be much better. He's way more scrappy and hustles, so I see him grabbing more rebounds than T-Mac's career average of 3 per game. Harrison Barnes doesn't strike me as a good comparison either. Aside from the fact that Barnes sucks at basketball, Wiggins is way more athletic, and just has so much more upside. Really, I think the best comparison for him is Paul George, because of his elite legnth and athleticism, streaky offensive game, and really solid play on the defensive end.

I'm a long time Cavs fan, and I really don't think it's possible to go wrong with this pick. It's gotta be either Wiggins or Parker, and either guy would be a spectacular fit. Embiid is an option, with Varejao getting older, and being injured 120% of the time, but I think the smart, long-term choice would be Wiggins. You can quote numbers, but I think we all know that Parker will never be an elite defensive player, whereas Wiggins has a real chance to become a dominant 2-way player. As much fun as it would be to have Parker and Irving on the same team (If that happens, they should trade for Corey Maggette and Austin Rivers and then re-sign Luol Deng, and it would be the Duke 1-and-done all-star team), I think the fact that they are both defensively challenged would be too much of a liability for the other 3 players on the court to compensate. All that said, I'm glad I'm not David Griffin, though, because I would not be able to resist taking Jabari #1. The best basketball decision seems to be Wiggins.

I've got no delusions about my team, the Cavaliers organization is a total mess. I honestly feel like they will somehow mismanage all of this and the whole thing blows up in their face again, Kyrie leaves for free agency, and Lebron stays in Miami. Because I'm a bigger Duke than any team in the NBA, I would much prefer to see Jabari land in Philadelphia, where I think the management has a good plan. He's going to be a great player wherever he lands, but I think he's set up really well to be the go-to-guy and develop with a young team in Philly that has some guys who look like they could become good enough defensive players to cover for Parker. The ideal fit I think would have been the Celtics, but at #6, they're pretty much out of the running for Jabari. But the Sixers is a really good situation too. They've got crazy amounts of cap room, the #3 and the #10 pick in this year's draft, and a pretty nice young core with Carter-Williams, Noel, and Young. If they got Jabari and then a shooter with the #10 pick, maybe Stauskas or even McBuckets, that could be a playoff team in 2 years, even if they didn't land a big free agent with all that extra money.

[superdave]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday, post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

[kAzE]

Chad Ford chat from yesterday, post-lottery. He gets into teams trading into and out of the lottery, as well as the Cavs-Love stuff.

One intriguing trade deal that could make a lot of sense: Philly sends the #3 to Utah for the #5, #23 and one of two 4th year players Enes Kanter (12.3 and 7.5 in 26 minutes last season) or Alec Burks (14 pts in 28 minutes).

Utah gets LDS star Jabari Parker at #3, assuming Embiid's back checks out and he and Wiggins go 1-2. Philly would get either a starting 2-guard in Burks or a 4 in Kanter to play alongside Noel. Philly could also draft one of Gordon/Randle/Vonleh at #5 and a role player such as Napier/McGary/Warren at #23.

Would Philly rather have Parker (or Embiid/Exum) at #3 - all starters and potential All-Stars, or would they rather have Kanter/Burks plus Vonleh/Randle/Gordon plus a role player? It's essentially a potential star vs. depth. I am guessing Philly stands pat at #3 and winds up with Parker being their leading scorer for the next dozen years.

You answered your own question. In every NBA transaction, the team that gets the star is the winner. How many times has it been proven that the NBA is a league that is about it's stars? If I'm Philly and I have a chance to acquire a potential all-star on a rookie deal vs a bunch of rotation guys, that's a no-brainer. They shouldn't trade that pick for anything less than an all-star level player or multiple lottery picks.

[superdave]

You answered your own question. In every NBA transaction, the team that gets the star is the winner. How many times has it been proven that the NBA is a league that is about it's stars? If I'm Philly and I have a chance to acquire a potential all-star on a rookie deal vs a bunch of rotation guys, that's a no-brainer.

They may be thinking of stockpiling assets and utilizing all that cap space though. For example, if they get a frontline via the draft and trade (Noel, Vonleh at #5 and Enes Kanter) then go after Carmelo this summer with a max contract, they are in great shape. They also got MCW at #11 last year so they may think their scouting is better than everyopne else's and try to be clever.

[Henderson]

Totally agreed on all counts. That's why [the Blazers are] snakebitten rather than incompetent. Doesn't make watching Kevin Durant dominate the league any less painful, though.

If you repeatedly hold a snake to your neck and get bitten, the distinction between being incompetent and "snakebitten" starts to become a fine one.

The Blazers passed on Michael Jordan to draft Sam Bowie, and they passed on Kevin Durant to draft Greg Oden. Neither move was bat-gauno crazy according to the "experts" at the time, but both were decried as bat-guano crazy at the time by many of us serious Blazer fans. And those people were proven right. Message: Take the best available player, no matter his position or your needs. Oh, and injury-prone big men? No.

In this draft, Joel Embiid strikes me as a strong candidate for the Bowie-Oden award. High risk, high reward (maybe) selection the Cavs just can't afford to take. Take Wiggins, trade Waiters for a high 2015 pick, make a big push to keep Deng for 3 years (or use his salary cap room to buy a replacement), and leverage that whole effort with Kyrie. Sign Kyrie, then call LeBron.

Only question: Can Kyrie be happy with Wiggins on the team? If he wants to win, he needs to share limelight. The two of them could be a force if the Cavs can find one great inside player. I don't think that player is Joel Embiid, and the Cavs can't have both Wiggins and Embiid.