2014 NBA Draft

[FireOgilvie]

I dunno about what they do with the pick, but has anyone thought about how insane it is that Cleveland won the lottery again!??!?!

They won the #1 pick last night despite having just a 1.7% chance of getting the top pick.
They also won the lottery in 2013, a year in which they had just a 15.6% chance of landing the top pick.
In 2011, they got Kyrie after winning the lottery with a pick they got from the LA Clippers. That pick had just a 2.8% chance of winning the lottery.

So, a little handy work with my calculator shows they had a .0074256% chance to win all three of those #1 picks. Put in language everyone can understand, that's less than 1 in 10,000 chance. Actually, it about a 1 in 13,500 chance.

It is worth noting that in 2012 they were in the lottery with 13.8% chance of getting the top pick but they failed and ended up picking 4th, so the horseshoe did not work that season. Still, to win it 3 out of 4 years -- two of which were crazy small chances -- is just insane.

-Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

I looked it up and Bennett averaged less points than any #1 draft pick in their first season playing since Charlie Share (Boston Celtics) in 1950.

[GGLC]

Portland Trail Blazers 1

Sigh.

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

[superdave]

Sigh.

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

To be fair, Greg Oden was on every 1st or 2nd All-American team and put up 25 and 12 in the title game. He was the real deal until his knee endured the Dust Bowl and Great Depression as soon as he was drafted. He was a good pick the day of the draft, unlike Darko or Olawokandi. Not that that is much consolation.

[GGLC]

To be fair, Greg Oden was on every 1st or 2nd All-American team and put up 25 and 12 in the title game. He was the real deal until his knee endured the Dust Bowl and Great Depression as soon as he was drafted. He was a good pick the day of the draft, unlike Darko or Olawokandi. Not that that is much consolation.

Totally agreed on all counts. That's why they're snakebitten rather than incompetent. Doesn't make watching Kevin Durant dominate the league any less painful, though.

[FireOgilvie]

Half of the top 10 in defensive efficiency resides in the Western Conference. So you may be thinking of some different era.

Well, 11 of the top 15 teams in PACE reside in the Western Conference and the top 11 teams in PPG all play in the West. Eight out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are in the Western Conference, while 8 out of the bottom 10 are Eastern Conference teams. Certainly there are differences between the conferences. Kyrie is well-suited to a fast-paced game. It's easier to play defense for 15 seconds than 20+ seconds, and I don't think it's crazy to say he's more of a finesse player than a grind-it-out type of guy. We'll see who the new Cavs coach is; they're actually well-equipped for a "run-'n-gun" style if they choose to go that way.

[jipops]

Well, 11 of the top 15 teams in PACE reside in the Western Conference and the top 11 teams in PPG all play in the West. Eight out of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are in the Western Conference, while 8 out of the bottom 10 are Eastern Conference teams. Certainly there are differences between the conferences. Kyrie is well-suited to a fast-paced game. It's easier to play defense for 15 seconds than 20+ seconds, and I don't think it's crazy to say he's more of a finesse player than a grind-it-out type of guy. We'll see who the new Cavs coach is; they're actually well-equipped for a "run-'n-gun" style if they choose to go that way.

I think all this means is that the Western conference overall is just better. Not lacking in toughness or defensive prowess.

[nmduke2001]

my completely random nba draft thoughts:

I would guess that a starting five that includes Kyrie and Jabari would be the worst defensively starting five in the league. Fun to watch, but a complete mess on the defensive end.

In regards to Wiggins, I believe that he will be Corey Maggette 2.0. Crazy athlete, good basketball player but not a superstar.

I think Smart is going to be the steal of the draft. The NBA has become a guard dominated league. Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later. He's a guy that plays well offensively, but more importantly, he can defend guys like Westbrook, Paul, Curry and Parker.

[Olympic Fan]

Sigh.

Lost a literal coinflip in 1984 for the chance to take Hakeem, too. And we all know how that turned out.

The Blazers have been absolutely snakebitten with top-two draft picks: twice offered a choice between an eventual all-time great and some other guy, and twice went with the other guy.

The lost coin flip is bad luck ... using the No. 2 pick for Sam Bowie rather than Michael Jordan is just plain stupidity.

I would add that both Bowie and Oden were high ceiling big men with a history of injury problems. The risks were there for everybody to see. It's kind of like Embiid this year -- if you want to gamble on him, great, but if injuries ruin his career I don't want to hear complaints about "bad lick".

BTW As long as we are talking about Portland, didn't the Blazers waste the No. 1 pick in 1972 (before the lottery) on an all-time flop named LeRue Martin, rather than making the pick everybody though they should have made -- future Hall of Famer and three-time scoring champ Bob McAdoo?

[TexHawk]

I think Smart is going to be the steal of the draft. The NBA has become a guard dominated league. Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later. He's a guy that plays well offensively, but more importantly, he can defend guys like Westbrook, Paul, Curry and Parker.

I'd like to know what planet Marcus Smart plays well offensively on, because it certainly isn't this one. He's a horrific shooter (41% for his college career, Wade shot 50%). He put up ok numbers because he shot 8 FTs per game, flopping all over the court. That won't fly in the NBA, and will eventually get him fined/suspended. The NBA (in general) is pretty good at taking things away from opposing players. Nobody will play within 3 feet of Smart, blocking his access to the basket, which is really the only thing he does well offensively.

He will be above average defensively, he makes his money on steals. To be fair, that is pretty easy to do against the TCUs and Techs of the Big12 schedule. It will be interesting how he defends the opposing PGs in the league.

I do enjoy the narrative surfacing again that he should be drafted high because he's a "winner", a guy who makes his teammates better. I mean, his teams went a whopping 45-22 in his two years in college, never won a conference title or saw a conference tournament final, and went 0-2 in the NCAA tournament. Plus that whole, 'fan altercation' thing. Sounds like a winner to me.

[JasonEvans]

Smart is as close to Westbrook or Wade that this draft has to offer. I'd be really happy picking up Smart at 7 or later.

Smart may be the closest thing to Westbrook or Wade in this draft, but that doesn't mean he is anywhere as good as they are, especially on offense. In this case "close" is not close enough.

I also suspect that, though he may not play like Westbrook or Wade, the best guard in this draft will be Dante Exum. 6-9 wingspan with PG skills is hard to find! If he develops a better jumpshot, he could be a perennial all-star.

-Jason "BTW, if I'm the Cavs, I'm taking Wiggins" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

-Jason "BTW, if I'm the Cavs, I'm taking Wiggins" Evans

This. Weirdly, the Cavs and Wiggins are meant for each other.

Here are the reasons:

1) If Wiggins is the next Lebron, best to start his career in Cleveland, right? I mean, isn't that how the media and Wiggins portrayed him?

2) Cleveland = unstructured offense with inept defense. Wiggins = great defense with unstructured / inept offense. Match made in heaven!

3) Cleveland = star or bust. Wiggins = star or bust. Perfect!

[BD80]

... -Jason "all of the good luck should be tempered by the fact that they used one of those #1 picks on Anthony Bennett, who appears poised to make Michael Olowkandi and Kwame Brown look like solid #1 picks" Evans

In all fairness the draft was very week, not many great picks

[Henderson]

In all fairness the draft was very week, not many great picks

Mason and Ryan send their regards.

[Billy Dat]

Adam Zagoria ‏@AdamZagoria 26m
The Detroit Pistons requested an interview with Andre Dawkins of Duke, his agent told @SNYtv

Stan Van loves 3 point shooting!

[theAlaskanBear]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder...heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

[superdave]

Mason and Ryan send their regards.

I like Mason and Ryan and I expect both guys to have long careers. But neither qualifies as great. It remains to be seen if anyone from the 2013 draft will even make an All-Star game.

[superdave]

I don't understand all the drooling over Wiggins. To me he seems like a slightly better defending Harrison Barnes.

In fact, their statistics are very similar...with Wiggins athleticism just giving him better steal/block numbers and a .020 advantage finishing 2-pt shots. The whole idea that Wiggins is passive offensively and not a natural playmaker-scorer scares me death, given the hype around Barnes and how his "passive" career progressed.

In fact, if you compare Wiggins against Parker, I don't see any advantages conferred by Wiggins elite athleticism. Parker matches him in blocks and steals (a couple more blocks, a couple fewer steals), higher FG%, more points, better 3-pt shooter, better rebounder...heck, he even has a better d-rating than "going to be an elite defender" Wiggins.

I see Parker, and I see someone who is used to playing with weight, can bulk up and play at PF at 240 or overwhelm small SFs in the post.

Barnes who killed it at the draft combine with a 40'' vert and great speed, is a solid roleplayer, not a star, never will be a star. I see Wiggins the same way.

For me, I am drafting Embiid, Parker, Vonleh, Exum.

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andr...-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

[roywhite]

I like Mason and Ryan and I expect both guys to have long careers. But neither qualifies as great. It remains to be seen if anyone from the 2013 draft will even make an All-Star game.

Fair question, though I expect Michael Carter-Williams will be an All-Star, maybe Victor Oladipo. Possibly Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway?

Wasn't a great class.

[roywhite]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andr...-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

Wiggins also has the special, and important, ability for double jumps, or the ability to again get off the floor very quickly after his first leap; that can lead to extra baskets or defensive stops.

He appears to be an elite athlete even by NBA standards.

[Billy Dat]

Here's a major reason why scouts love Wiggins: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/andr...-vertical-leap

Kid's got a 44 inch vertical.

Scouts believe that Wiggins can be a big 2 or a 3. They believe Jabari is an undersized 4 because he is not the typical 6'10'' and has a shorter vertical reach than standard 4's. He is also not quick enough laterally to guard many 3s. They think Wiggins can learn the offensive polish that Jabari has but that Jabari will never be as athletic as Wiggins. In short, Wiggins will improve his jumper but Jabari wont improve his height or reach.

A lot of this stuff boils down to what one thinks can be taught and what can't. I was very impressed by Wiggins this year. The thing he seems to lack is consistent all out play and the instinct to take over a game. But, maybe a lot of that was because he was a freshman. I saw much more than a freak athlete, he had range, finished on the break like a monster, D'ed up...I think he's going to be really really good.

I am surprised there isn't more chatter about Randle. He is a relentless machine. I think, even at 6'9", his game will translate. I feel like Vonieh moving ahead of Randle is a workout phenomenon.