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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham

    (mostly) non-rotation musings about '14-'15

    so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes...since I find such discussions quite droll...anyway

    1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation...I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant...heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

    2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense...and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable...in that they won't accept it as standard for the program...not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective...i really don't think the team cares what I think...as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)...If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything...why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go...we don't have 4 years with these guys...it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that...if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not...we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others...with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

    3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games...evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense...the goal being to let the players make plays...and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood...but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then...nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play...and since we were standing around in iso...it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

    4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it...but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode...), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones...and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march
    1200. DDMF.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes...since I find such discussions quite droll...anyway

    1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation...I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant...heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

    2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense...and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable...in that they won't accept it as standard for the program...not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective...i really don't think the team cares what I think...as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)...If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything...why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go...we don't have 4 years with these guys...it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that...if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not...we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others...with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

    3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games...evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense...the goal being to let the players make plays...and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood...but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then...nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play...and since we were standing around in iso...it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

    4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it...but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode...), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones...and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march
    Interesting observations, and you did manage not to talk about who would be in the rotation--how long until that comes up in this thread? I'm putting the over-under at 11 posts. One nitpick though--I'm not expecting much from Tyrus Jones. But I am optimistic about Tyus Jones.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I think a Cook, Sulaimon, T. Jones, maybe M. Jones guard rotation could easily be one of the best in the nation, certainly good enough to cut down the nets.

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes...since I find such discussions quite droll...anyway

    1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation...I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant...heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

    2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense...and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable...in that they won't accept it as standard for the program...not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective...i really don't think the team cares what I think...as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)...If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything...why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go...we don't have 4 years with these guys...it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that...if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not...we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others...with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

    3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games...evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense...the goal being to let the players make plays...and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood...but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then...nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play...and since we were standing around in iso...it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

    4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it...but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode...), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones...and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march
    Last edited by Newton_14; 04-19-2014 at 07:29 PM. Reason: fixed quote tag

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I think a Cook, Sulaimon, T. Jones, maybe M. Jones guard rotation could easily be one of the best in the nation, certainly good enough to cut down the nets.
    I think they could be, and I think they might not be. I think there is still a lot of unknown there.

    While cook is mostly a known entity at this point, will he improve on his weaknesses moving into senior year?
    Sulaimon is what he is, but needs to show he can contribute with consistency. He had excellent games (cuse part 1, uva part 1, and to some degree, mercer), and some poor games (uva, clemson ND, games 3-10)...when he's on, he can break down defenses and get to the lane...when he's not, he disappears...we need more of the former...I think he needs to add another 3-4 points per game.

    matt certainly showed moments of promise, but also only scored a grand total of 20 points in ACC play. I certainly think he could turn out to be huge, but in the end, I think there is simply too much talent and experience in front of him this year.

    Tyus is shows promise in his HS games...I loved his play in the McD game, only putting up 10 points, but chopping up defenses so well that if the defenders were onions, we'd all be in tears, and then finding his teammates....I thought it was impressive for a bunch of guys thrown together for an allstar game, that he was able to find them with ease. but will he be able to do that in the college level in whatever system K puts in? we simply don't know. Is he kyrie 2.0? is he even close? I hope so.


    so who will be the guards? if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague, I think it almost must be tyus and sheed. I don't think quinn is enough of a threat to consistently break down defenses on his own, and matt i guess could be, but he's so unknown right now. could we go with just tyus as the premier PG and play quinn off him? perhaps that could be the main, and that gives you flexibility with quinn as another shooter/ball handler...but I don't think quinn is complete enough a player right now to give us an elite combo...certainly pretty good, but not elite.

    So i think whichever way we go, there are some big question marks...consistency, inexperience, drive-ability, defense...so best case:

    tyus is everything he's hyped up to be, and quinn playing off the ball allows him to do what he does best (passing/ballhandling) without having to worry about breaking down the defense against pressure...he then only takes good threes, makes a ton of them. Rasheed having the pressure off him doesn't feel like he needs to carry the team at times (mercer...) gives us a deadly combo when we can play any of them all the time. Matt turns into dwyane wade over the summer and teams need to double team him while HE's on defense

    worst case:
    tyus has a big toe injury, quinn proves he has the same faults that have led us to two first round exits in 3 years, he gets benched in favor of matt and sheed, and gets so angry that he decides to transfer for his last semester of eligibility to UNC, where he goes on to win a national championship. Sheed feels he has to lead the team in every category, including turnovers and blocked shots, and the rest of the team puts of 25-trillions every night. matt doesn't like his lack of playing time last year and his lack of usage this year, and transfers to kentucky, where he raises their APR high enough that the rest of the one and dones don't even need to take any classes for the next 3 years

    reality: probably somewhere in the middle. but there's a HUGE range, and we simply can't know where it will fall. as I've said, though, I believe that Jon's increased role will be a boon for those guys at the guard position...he knew more than anything, how to run an offense in all situations. and I hope the guys can learn that from him.
    1200. DDMF.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I think your best-case scenarios are a lot more likely that your worst-case.

    Some thoughts on Tyus. I have a general aversion to no-defense all-star games. I thought the Brand classic was cringe-inducing. But we have a recent Tyus Jones sighting in a real game, the U.S. v. International (Hoops Summit). Both teams took this seriously because it actually mattered. Jones was a pass-first point most of the contest. But with the game on the line, he absolutely took over, five times taking the ball into the lane, five times scoring. It was his ball game.

    And there are plenty of other data points not involving Minnesota prep ball. Jones averaged 5.4 apg in leading the US to an 8-0 gold medal in the 2012 FIBA U-17 world championships.

    To be sure, Cook also had comparable international success and hasn't been able to leverage that into college dominance, although I think I have a higher opinion of his play than do you; you certainly can't pin the 2012 Lehigh loss on Cook. He wasn't even in the rotation that season.

    And I think Sulaimon learned some valuable lessons about preparation and focus this season. If he has, he's an All-America-level talent.

    I've stated elsewhere that I suspect Matt Jones will be in the small-forward rotation, barring injuries. But he's an option at the 2 if needed.

    So, I feel pretty good about the guard spot. Very good, as a matter of fact.

    That doesn't mean I don't have some real concerns. Can Jefferson develop a mid-range face-up jumper? If not, how do to he and Okafor co-exist inside? If Winslow really is the best option at the 3, that gives Duke three freshmen starters. Is that one too many? Can M. Jones recover his shooting mojo? Can Okafor avoid the fresh-foul-trouble-woes that so often plague first-year big men?

    So, work to be done. But I feel pretty good about things going into the summer.


    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think they could be, and I think they might not be. I think there is still a lot of unknown there.

    While cook is mostly a known entity at this point, will he improve on his weaknesses moving into senior year?
    Sulaimon is what he is, but needs to show he can contribute with consistency. He had excellent games (cuse part 1, uva part 1, and to some degree, mercer), and some poor games (uva, clemson ND, games 3-10)...when he's on, he can break down defenses and get to the lane...when he's not, he disappears...we need more of the former...I think he needs to add another 3-4 points per game.

    matt certainly showed moments of promise, but also only scored a grand total of 20 points in ACC play. I certainly think he could turn out to be huge, but in the end, I think there is simply too much talent and experience in front of him this year.

    Tyus is shows promise in his HS games...I loved his play in the McD game, only putting up 10 points, but chopping up defenses so well that if the defenders were onions, we'd all be in tears, and then finding his teammates....I thought it was impressive for a bunch of guys thrown together for an allstar game, that he was able to find them with ease. but will he be able to do that in the college level in whatever system K puts in? we simply don't know. Is he kyrie 2.0? is he even close? I hope so.


    so who will be the guards? if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague, I think it almost must be tyus and sheed. I don't think quinn is enough of a threat to consistently break down defenses on his own, and matt i guess could be, but he's so unknown right now. could we go with just tyus as the premier PG and play quinn off him? perhaps that could be the main, and that gives you flexibility with quinn as another shooter/ball handler...but I don't think quinn is complete enough a player right now to give us an elite combo...certainly pretty good, but not elite.

    So i think whichever way we go, there are some big question marks...consistency, inexperience, drive-ability, defense...so best case:

    tyus is everything he's hyped up to be, and quinn playing off the ball allows him to do what he does best (passing/ballhandling) without having to worry about breaking down the defense against pressure...he then only takes good threes, makes a ton of them. Rasheed having the pressure off him doesn't feel like he needs to carry the team at times (mercer...) gives us a deadly combo when we can play any of them all the time. Matt turns into dwyane wade over the summer and teams need to double team him while HE's on defense

    worst case:
    tyus has a big toe injury, quinn proves he has the same faults that have led us to two first round exits in 3 years, he gets benched in favor of matt and sheed, and gets so angry that he decides to transfer for his last semester of eligibility to UNC, where he goes on to win a national championship. Sheed feels he has to lead the team in every category, including turnovers and blocked shots, and the rest of the team puts of 25-trillions every night. matt doesn't like his lack of playing time last year and his lack of usage this year, and transfers to kentucky, where he raises their APR high enough that the rest of the one and dones don't even need to take any classes for the next 3 years

    reality: probably somewhere in the middle. but there's a HUGE range, and we simply can't know where it will fall. as I've said, though, I believe that Jon's increased role will be a boon for those guys at the guard position...he knew more than anything, how to run an offense in all situations. and I hope the guys can learn that from him.

  6. #6

    Thanks for Starting This

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    so the rotation predictions are currently being beaten to death in the other thread (as I'm sure they will be from now until next February...) I wanted to muse on some other things that I think are not necessarily related to exactly who will get how many minutes...since I find such discussions quite droll...anyway

    1) we will have a 7-8 man rotation...I don't know who the 8 will be, and neither does anyone else here. but every year we have new players, and every year many here think "oh we will be the deepest in the country" and every year we only play 7-8 of them big minutes in big games, and every year we will blame losses on "xyz should be playing more!" and say "xyz will transfer for sure!" nothing will change next year...the details are unimportant...heck we could make a good madlibs about this!

    2) we'll reevaluate the way we play defense...and it won't be zone. K hinted as much when he said after the mercer game that they needed to go back and reevaluate what they do on the less glamorous end of the floor. I normally consider K much less flexible in his defensive game planning as opposed to offense, but I think he' had his hand forced. losing to mercer is unacceptable for the players, this program, and most importantly to K (note, i'm using the literal definition of unacceptable...in that they won't accept it as standard for the program...not as many of you will assume...that i think it's unacceptable from a fans perspective...i really don't think the team cares what I think...as well they shouldn't...they don't owe me anything...especially concern over what I think is acceptable)...If I had to guess, I think we'll see a more compact defense, ala 2010, and more work on going through screens rather than switching nearly everything...why? two reasons: 1)not switching as much is easier, and we need something freshman can learn and play well from the get-go...we don't have 4 years with these guys...it's much easier to say "hey you, guard him. always" we have plenty of athletes who can do that...if they lose a step because they're wondering whether to switch or not...we'll lose games 2)much moreso than this last year, we have a team where some players simply will not be able to guard others...with jahlil and marshall, and even to a lesser degree amile, will stay with their bigs, and potentially out big them. I expect marshall to continue his hedging, as he has gotten pretty good at it

    3) having scheyer play a bigger role on the coaching staff will allow us to better execute in pressure situations...late in shot clock and late in game...we all know we would go through long stretches with terrible shots and few points late in games...evidenced by the huge runs teams would make in many of our losses...since '10, K has admittedly moved to a much more free flowing "pro-style" offense...the goal being to let the players make plays...and this works great a lot of the time, but it breaks down when you don't have NBA players all over the floor and are put under pressure...you don't have a "play" to fall back on...and the offense grinds to a halt...you end up with "black hole" type possessions, where whomever happened to have the ball was going to try to take the shot...come hell or high water. This worked often when it was jabari or hood...but then other teams realized they could work hard to deny those two the ball, and then...nobody else on the floor could consistently make a play...and since we were standing around in iso...it was brick city. Jon was an expert executing offense in these situations. expect him to work with the guards at what to do in these situations to ensure good shots are gotten

    4) duke won't win the national championship. why? couple reasons. first, the odds aren't in our favor...give me any team against the field, and I'm taking the field. second, I'm not sure we have the guard play to get it done. I haven't been sold on quinn, as he seems largely the same player he was 2 years ago (could he improve? absotluely. hope he does...we could use it...but as a senior, i'm in "show me" mode...), and I believe a lot then weighs on tyrus jones...and though he seems like a great player, I feel with few exceptions, experienced PG play is a huge asset in march
    1. Agree, of course the fans will want K to go deeper. I also expect that the roles of each player in the rotation will be well defined by the start of the ACC season and that the rotation will be pretty well set by then.

    2. I certainly hope K modifies the defense to something the a team with 2 or 3 frosh in the rotation can execute. Not sure about the specific changes.

    3. Again I hope so.

    4. I think T. Jones, Rasheed and Cook are potentially an excellent backcourt. If Parker would have come back, most pundits would have us as the favorite for the NC with the same guards. Not sure of the point about the odds as no one in his right mind would make an even money bet on any one team against the field.

    The main challenge for next year will be to get the team to play as a team. I am not sure that even late in this season everyone knew their role on offense and defense and just what was going on. Late in the season Rasheed was reported to yell at Parker - "Run the MF play." I think that the confusion brought about by a different offense centered around 2 new players and lack of communication and teamwork on defense contributed a lot to a season that many found disappointing. Next year there will be new players in major roles and a different offense, so hopefully lessons learned from this year will help next year.

    SoCal

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    if we want combos like boatright/napier, smith/siva, lamb/teague
    Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?

    I mean, I'm sure people thought they were good backcourts, but I'm also equally sure they weren't any more highly-regarded than what Duke seemingly has right now. The difference is those guys you listed already won, and so we mythologize them a bit in our minds. Duke fans definitely have experience with this. In April 2009, we were wondering whether Scheyer could be a Final Four point guard (if John Wall didn't sign with us). We had even more doubts about Nolan Smith since he hadn't embarked on his breakout junior season yet. In April 2010, Scheyer/Smith became a championship backcourt.

    Put another way: Championship backcourts tend to look a lot like what Duke seemingly has right now a year before they go on to win the championship. Sometimes they look worse than what Duke seemingly has right now, actually.

    Put yet another way: What team looks like it has a stronger backcourt heading into next season? The list is going to be extremely short.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?

    I mean, I'm sure people thought they were good backcourts, but I'm also equally sure they weren't any more highly-regarded than what Duke seemingly has right now. The difference is those guys you listed already won, and so we mythologize them a bit in our minds. Duke fans definitely have experience with this. In April 2009, we were wondering whether Scheyer could be a Final Four point guard (if John Wall didn't sign with us). We had even more doubts about Nolan Smith since he hadn't embarked on his breakout junior season yet. In April 2010, Scheyer/Smith became a championship backcourt.

    Put another way: Championship backcourts tend to look a lot like what Duke seemingly has right now a year before they go on to win the championship. Sometimes they look worse than what Duke seemingly has right now, actually.

    Put yet another way: What team looks like it has a stronger backcourt heading into next season? The list is going to be extremely short.
    Smith, Siva, and Napier were very highly thought-of going into their championship seasons. People thought more of them than our backcourt this year. But I agree with your general point. Nobody would have thought that UConn would win the title this year, perhaps even as halftime of the Final Four (though that was more due to their frontcourt than their backcourt). To predict who will win next year now (or even next March) is just really, really hard to do.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

    How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

    And we know how that turned out.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Smith, Siva, and Napier were very highly thought-of going into their championship seasons. People thought more of them than our backcourt this year.
    Right. But were the backcourt pairings uh_no listed (or if we extend to backcourt trios) any more highly-regarded going into their championship seasons than TJones/Sulaimon/Cook are heading into next season, which seems to be the more relevant comparison. I don't think so. Maybe Siva/Smith were, but Napier/Boatright and especially Lamb/Teague were not. (Teague was always regarded as the weak link on that UK team.) In September, when college basketball previews get written, and pundits try to rank the best backcourts in the country, I am certain Duke's will be in the top 5. Maybe even #1.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

    How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

    And we know how that turned out.
    Welcome back Jim! Agreed totally; see my post #7. Always glad when I'm sharing the same thoughts as you!

  12. #12
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    Oct 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Let's make this more Duke-specific. After 2009, Duke lost Gerald Henderson, Elliot Williams and Marty Pocius. Jon Scheyer had played only briefly at point and more than a few critics thought he was out-of position, too slow to play the point at a high level for an entire season. His running mate was oft-injured underachiever Nolan Smith. The only guard backup was guy who should have been in high school.

    How highly-regarded was that backcourt going into 2010? Lots of non-believers, lots of questions, lots of doubt.

    And we know how that turned out.
    heck even in march when we got beaten by maryland.

    as much as we can muse, it's impossible to say how our backcourt will be next year. people cite the 2010 team all the time as evidence that of what might probably happen...heck all year this year people were saying "we lost in january and march in 2010 and won a national championship and zoubek turned into a beast....plumlee will turn into a beast THIS year after our loss to <team> and we'll win again!"

    the problem is the 2010 team is effectively an exception, I think...and as much as we harp (myself included) on how a title was won in the past, i think just attempting to have those qualities that past teams have had and then expecting success is a fools errand. How many teams had great guard play last year and didn't win? quite a few.

    That said, we know that the backcourt could turn around this year, and I think we're all hopeful for that, but i'm not sure we can expect them to do so simply because the 2010 team did.

    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Looking back, were any of these backcourts that highly thought of a year before they won the championship? Or heck, even a month before they won?
    To put it shortly, yes.

    connecticut didn't get postseason attention last year (for obvious reasons) but their backcourt was lauded all year, and was generally considered one of the top guard duos in the country all year
    smith/siva were coming off a final four year...people knew they were plenty good
    kemba was a different story...mostly because he was so good that year you could have played him with a traffic cone as a backcourt partner and the traffic cone would have averaged double digits

    so I think in most cases, you know who is going to have great backcourts and great frontcourts, mostly because of experience and who's returning...and in some cases because of star freshman...but even in UK's case, we know that is not infallible. I think my point is that we have a lot of unknowns...as jim points out, we can certainly be great, as evidenced by other teams that have become great. It's just hard for me to conclude at this point that it will definitively be the case.
    1200. DDMF.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think my point is that we have a lot of unknowns...as jim points out, we can certainly be great, as evidenced by other teams that have become great. It's just hard for me to conclude at this point that it will definitively be the case.
    Well, we're in agreement here. It's just that, to me, Duke's chances of having a great backcourt appear to be as good as just about any other team in the country. If you concede that, we'll be in total agreement.

  14. #14
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    Honestly I think the whole season boils down to Rasheed's development. He's certain to be the lead dog in our offense next year and I think the team should take on a little bit of his persona.

    One of the things I said quietly this year and is that we were too nice. Picking up opponents and what not. I'd like to see a little less of that - a little more Laettner. I'll even take a tech for doing push ups after a dunk...

    Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it. I think this will be Okafor's biggest impact. If he becomes a zone buster in the high post (maybe even Jefferson as well) then I think this team has a very high ceiling.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by SupaDave View Post

    Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it.
    Which is actually a really big point and larger then just playing against the zone. Even late in the season, we'd see a zone be flummoxed for multiple possession, as though we hadn't been seeing it all year. This year we had a hard time adjusting and processing new information about how we needed to play. That needs to change in a big way, first and foremost on the defensive end, but also on offense...

  16. #16
    I agree with OP that Quinn is likely the key. I haven't heard K say make any statements to the effect that Jones will be given the keys or the team will be built around him like we did about Kyrie, Jabari, Hood and Okafor so, at this point, there is no reason to think he'll move ahead of Quinn IMO. I thought last year that Quinn's performance would be a key factor in how far Duke went and, unfortunately, I think it was. Early on he looked like he was poised for a breakout year but he lost his shooting mojo and the rest of his game seemed to follow. We'll need him to shoot well next year but hopefully he'll also do a better job of feeding the post, breaking the press and keeping his man in front of him.

    I've noticed a few things recently about former Duke championship teams from watching you tube replays of old games. In the 91 semifinal against UNLV and the championship against Kansas I was struck by how well Hurley delivered the ball to Laettner in the post. there was real familiarity that was evident. Hurley would deliver passes off the dribble knowing where Christian would be and Laettner would turn, receive the pass and go up in one motion as if he knew when and where Bobby would deliver it. They really scorched UNLV's "amoeba" zone at times.

    The 2001 team, on the other hand, really got up the floor quickly before the defense was set a lot of the times. They rarely relied on JWill to break the pressure on his own and then initiate the offense against a set half-court defense. Whoever rebounded the ball, whether Boozer, Battier or Dunleavy, would turn and find a teammate ahead. It wasn't always a fast break but there was a lot less dribbling and a lot more passing to advance the ball up-court.

    I think both teams benefitted from playing together for 2-3 years so I'm not sure next year's team can be expected to replicate their success. Hopefully we won't see Quinn or Sheed dribbling the shot clock away as much as this year. It will be good to have Okafor to protect the rim but, if we allow penetration as easily as last year, he's going to pick up a lot of fouls. I don't see us creating a lot of turnovers from pressure or over-playing so I hope we pack it in a bit and focus on making them shoot over us and rebounding the ball next year.

  17. #17
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I agree with OP that Quinn is likely the key. I haven't heard K say make any statements to the effect that Jones will be given the keys or the team will be built around him like we did about Kyrie, Jabari, Hood and Okafor so, at this point, there is no reason to think he'll move ahead of Quinn IMO.
    I couldn't disagree more. I will be as shocked as I've ever been as a Duke fan if Tyus Jones is not running the point from the get-go. Honestly, I think it's a no-brainer, in spite of Quinn being a senior. Now, I won't be shocked to see a starting backcourt of Tyus and Quinn together, with Rasheed playing the 3. Won't be thrilled with it either, but that's primarily because I think we'll give up too much size at all three of those positions. But I can't see any way that Tyus doesn't start from day one. He's that good, imho.

  18. #18
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    Nov 2013
    Quote Originally Posted by SupaDave View Post
    Honestly I think the whole season boils down to Rasheed's development. He's certain to be the lead dog in our offense next year and I think the team should take on a little bit of his persona.

    One of the things I said quietly this year and is that we were too nice. Picking up opponents and what not. I'd like to see a little less of that - a little more Laettner. I'll even take a tech for doing push ups after a dunk...

    Oh and speaking of zone - will we learn how to play against it this year? We had a few moments but otherwise it sent the team into a tailspin whenever they saw it. I think this will be Okafor's biggest impact. If he becomes a zone buster in the high post (maybe even Jefferson as well) then I think this team has a very high ceiling.
    I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night. The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheGame View Post
    I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night. The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.
    for me, the question is, will we be able to reliably get jahlil the ball. Last year we had trouble at times getting mason the ball in position to score, and more so when ryan was out. will amile or whomever is at the across jahlil be enough of a threat that teams can't just sandwich jahlil the entire game.

    the other question is minutes. we got a freshman big man, and most likely he won't go more than 25...and might even be limited to 20 depending on how good a shape he's in...i'm not saying he's out of shape, just that with freshman big men, you just don't know how much they'll be able to go. So for those 15-20 minutes when he isn't on the floor, he won't be making an impact. For all we know, he could get himself in foul trouble. So it will be critical for him to remain on the floor.

    also of concern: how much will the offense have to change when he's not on the floor? obviously marshall isn't jahlil...but will he be able to serve as enough of a shadow that the offense can funtion at least similarly? or will we effectively need to install two offenses...one with jahlil, and one without.
    1200. DDMF.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheGame View Post
    I think K has already indicated who will be the top dog next year. Everyone is going to play off of Okafor. I hope Rasheed has a huge year but the lane will not be cleared for him to go one on one like he apt to at the end of shot clocks. Duke will put the ball in the post every chance it gets as Big jah is the only clearly superior talent they will have each night.
    How much have you seen Jahlil play? On what do you base your assertion that he'll be the "only clearly superior talent" on Duke's team? You don't think any of the big men on other teams might be almost as good as "Big jah"?

    Quote Originally Posted by JPtheGame View Post
    The fun part is that Mjones and Quinn have shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's and Amile and Rasheed will get a lot of looks rolling to the rim if Jah has even a basic understanding of how to pass out of double teams.
    Matt Jones shot 14% on three-pointers this past season. So I'd suggest he has not yet "shown the ability to knock down kick out 3's" in college.

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    for me, the question is, will we be able to reliably get jahlil the ball.
    If we're going to assume that Jahlil is as good as advertised, why not Tyus. Supposedly he's really good at feeding the post.

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