2014 Jordan Brand Classic

[Gthoma2a]

I will take the Selden-Oubre-Alexander trio over anyone in the country.

The only part that I will disagree with, as you will be a VERY good team next year. I like Tyus (very good PG), Rasheed, who was trending up last season (and despite the team having a bad loss, he ended his season with a good effort) and Okafor. This goes doubly, since chemistry seemed to be an issue last year. Tyus is a facilitator that will fix chemistry issues, and Rasheed will get to play as our key perimeter scorer. He seemed to have a little bit of difficulty with staying fully engaged, when he wasn't the first option on the perimeter. He will get to stay in rhythm this year. That, and Jahlil is Jahlil. He is one of the most potent offensive weapons in the country, but in an area that was almost unmanned last year (we just didn't have a center last year). If Amile gets a little jumper, he gets that much more effective. I am surely biased, but I'd take our three.

On the discussion about Justise (not towards Texhawk), the difference between him and Gbinije is that Gbinije was a shy kid who, from what I read when he transferred, didn't seem to be comfortable at Duke. I think Justise is out-going and will do just fine. In the spotlight, personality comes into play, as much as talent. Justise does things very well and seems to play with no sense of himself (he looks like a guy who values the team and won't let emotions get in the way of his contributions). He's got everything he needs to be a big piece to the puzzle.

[BD80]

I think it's important to note that Winslow is a top 10-15 recruit (#12 in the summer RSCI and I suspect not likely to drop by the final RSCI). Gbinije was the #28 player in RSCI. So while the two players may have somewhat similar games, it would appear that Winslow plays that game at a slightly higher level.

In general, with regard to recruits at Duke playing as freshmen:
- top-10 recruits play major minutes
- #11-20 are a mixed bag; some play big minutes right away, some are reserves
- #20+ recruits best hope for glaring holes on the depth chart, because otherwise they aren't playing significant minutes as freshmen

Winslow falls in that gray area between "sure-fire, major minutes guy" and "reserve". But he definitely seems more likely to get minutes as a freshman than Gbinije.

Chris Carrawell.

Further, not all recruiting classes are equivalent, 2014 is deep at the top, guys 11-20 would be top 10 other years.

[CDu]

Chris Carrawell.

Further, not all recruiting classes are equivalent, 2014 is deep at the top, guys 11-20 would be top 10 other years.

It's certainly true that not all classes are equivalent. But the trend I listed has held throughout the RSCI era (Carrawell predated that system, and was again a big beneficiary of opportunity as a freshman).

[richardjackson199]

Would Jones-Cook-Sheed be much worse than Curry-Cook-Sheed (Duke's backcourt from 2013)? I know defense is not played in a vacuum -- the big men play a big role in team defense and the 2013 had two senior big men in Mason and Ryan with lots of experience playing Duke defense (though Mason often played matador defense to avoid foul trouble and obviously Ryan was hurt). But I feel like everyone is forgetting that Sheed played the 3 almost exclusively as a freshman, and the 2013 team's defense wasn't that bad.

Considering that Tyus is around the same size as Seth and probably has more lateral quickness than an injured Seth did, I don't think anyone can definitively say that Jones-Cook-Sheed would get 'destroyed' on defense any more than Curry-Cook-Sheed got 'destroyed.' Of course, whether Duke's team defense, including the bigs, is any good is a question left to be answered.

I think K will see how much the rule changes affect his defensive strategy and plan accordingly. I believe the defensive struggles of this year's team were based on three big factors: the rule changes on the perimeter, the inability of Rodney/Jabari to grasp all of the rotations and the lack of a true big man. I don't think a Jones-Cook-Sheed backcourt would prevent Duke from fixing any three of those problems.

I agree with this post. There are merits to both sides of the argument. I believe defense could still be really good with T. Jones, Cook, and Sheed on the floor. Sheed is tall,quick, and can play very good defense. Cook works hard on defense, and I believe as a senior he'll improve on both ends of the floor. Cook should not be trying to guard Olivier Hanlan (and it remains to be seen, but maybe T. Jones shouldn't either). But Sheed could do that. Cook can guard the opposing team's 2 guard if he isn't explosive with speed. And to match up against some teams, we'll need even more minutes from Winslow for his defense.

K is a master at exploiting his team's matchup strengths. Next year's team should afford him a better opportunity to do that. Having bigs inside will help immensely (especially in a perfect world if we get a rim protector like Turner and he spends this offseason working on strength).

I'm very excited about the potential for next year's team. Tyus, Cook, Sheed, Okafor, Justise, Amile, and Myles (if he chooses wisely) will all earn big minutes next year and will have a blast playing with each other. They'll be super fun to watch. Depending on work this off-season, Semi, Matt, Grayson, and especially MP3 could also earn big and crucial roles next year. Obi will be extremely helpful in practice next year.

Can't wait to see how well we play on both ends of the floor. I hope we run lots in transition. We'll certainly be a very different Duke team with different strengths.

[duke09hms]

I know we're all kind of in a sour mood from how the season ended, but my skepticism regarding Winslow comes mostly from seeing Gbinije ride the pine, who I see as a similar player to Winslow. The whole season we were dying for someone who could guard the big wings, yet Coach K continued to play three of Tyler, Quinn, Seth, and Rivers in the back court. Which makes me think that it is really hard for a defensive-only player to get minutes as a freshman. Matt Jones did get some burn this year, and I could see Winslow getting similar minutes this coming season, but I'm just not among those who foresee him starting and playing 30 minutes, unless he really REALLY exceeds expectations, like to an almost unprecedented degree.

With that said, I am definitely looking forward to seeing what he can do and watching him develop over the next few years.

Yep, in 2012 we played a very small backcourt, and at #81 it was the historically worst defense under K in at least a decade plus (Kenpom only goes to 2003) until this year 2014 where we clocked in at 116. Both first-round exits.

Playing a small backcourt is fine if both are athletic enough and laterally quick enough to stay in front of their man.

I'm not pushing for Winslow to start, I think it's way too early to tell, and it's extremely hard to project HS-to-college. But given what we know, I really hope we don't see Quinn and Tyus on the court at the same time, maybe 10 min. max. Sure, MAYBE Quinn could really improve his lateral quickness over the summer so he's not burned over and over by fast guards. And MAYBE Tyus turns out to be a defensive stalwart. I'm hopeful for both those things, but as of now it doesn't seem to be the case.

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

[Duvall]

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

A Cook-Sulaimon-Jefferson lineup wouldn't be senior/junior-heavy? Anyway, the 2013 team had great defensive stats, *except* for the stretch when it was forced to start multiple freshmen.

[wk2109]

Someone mentioned 2013 where we had Curry-Cook-Sheed in 2013. I don't think it's fair to compare the senior/junior-heavy 2013 team. Also, their defense wasn't that great either at #31, at least not by the high standards K has set at Duke.

#31 isn't great, but I wouldn't call it getting "destroyed," which is the word you used. And as mentioned above, that #31 ranking would have been much better if Ryan had stayed healthy all year.

Also, it's not like having a 'big' wing start at the 3 is the key to a stellar defense -- case in point: Rodney Hood in 2014. The 2004 team finished #4 in defense with a Duhon-Ewing-Redick perimeter with Dockery as the main sub.

My point is two-fold:
1. 2013 shows us that a (small guard)-Cook-Sheed backcourt would not necessarily get destroyed on defense.
2. 2004 and 2014 show us that a three-guard lineup can play good defense and a big-wing-at-the-3 lineup can play poor defense.

[Tucknut]

Wow. Nice start for the Tyus-Okafor connection!

[duke09hms]

#31 isn't great, but I wouldn't call it getting "destroyed," which is the word you used. And as mentioned above, that #31 ranking would have been much better if Ryan had stayed healthy all year.

Also, it's not like having a 'big' wing start at the 3 is the key to a stellar defense -- case in point: Rodney Hood in 2014. The 2004 team finished #4 in defense with a Duhon-Ewing-Redick perimeter with Dockery as the main sub.

My point is two-fold:
1. 2013 shows us that a (small guard)-Cook-Sheed backcourt would not necessarily get destroyed on defense.
2. 2004 and 2014 show us that a three-guard lineup can play good defense and a big-wing-at-the-3 lineup can play poor defense.

Well, I did not say the 2013 defense was getting destroyed, I only said their #31 defense is not great by Duke standards.
I DID say the small lineup of Tyus-Quinn-Sheed would get destroyed on defense given what we know now about Quinn/Tyus' defensive capabilities. Quinn gets burned by a lot of ACC starting point guards, and Tyus' reportedly had issues with defense at the all-star training camps. Sure, I definitely hope Tyus and Quinn make huge strides on defense this summer, but we can't assume the best-case scenario.

From these data points, perhaps one truth is that the backcourt either needs to be big/long or they need to be fast.
2004 - sure we had a 3-guard lineup, but Duhon/Dockery/Ewing were MORE than capable of staying in front of their man. Lateral quickness out the a--
2010 - amazing D all around, one would think Scheyer's lack of exceptional lateral quickness would be exploited, but his decent size and great positioning more than made up for it. Nolan wasn't big, but he was agile enough to lock down quick guards. One can imagine Sheed can take on that lockdown role, but Jon and Kyle are not walking through that door. Instead we have Quinn and Tyus. Great players sure, but defensively nowhere near Jon and Kyle who were so smart and had great size for their position.
2012-2014: Quinn and Tyler are both small and not exceptionally blessed with lateral quickness. Would place Seth in this category too, but he was severely hampered by injury in 2013.

If you're not tall/long, you have to be laterally quick. Like Duhon, Dockery, Nolan, DeMarcus
If you're not fast, it helps to be tall/long. Like Scheyer, UCLA's Kyle Anderson. Or exceptionally crafty like Kendall Marshall, Scheyer, and Anderson.

The defensive worst-case is to be slow and small (relative to top D-1 backcourts) like Quinn and Tyler, and this year it was SEVERELY exacerbated by total lack of help by the bigs.
At times, it seemed we were making every ACC PG we faced look like a NBA prospect. That Clemson guard comes to mind.

It almost seems like K has been so used to having lockdown guard defenders who were not that tall and continued with the same system once Nolan graduated. But the smaller guards we were trying to put in the lockdown-Nolan role post-2011 didn't have the physical/mental capabilities to do so. In fact the 2012-2014 defenses are Duke's #2, #4, and #1 worst ratings since KenPom started at #81, #31, #116.

It's really too bad about Quinn's knee problems, perhaps he's never fully recovered and lost a bit of a step.

[wk2109]

Well, I did not say the 2013 defense was getting destroyed, I only said their #31 defense is not great by Duke standards.

And my point was that Curry-Cook-Sheed, which is not too different from Tyus-Cook-Sheed, played the bulk of the perimeter minutes for that #31-ranked defense (which, again, would not have been ranked #31 had Ryan not gotten hurt) and did not get "destroyed," which is what you predict would happen with a Tyus-Cook-Sheed backcourt.

I DID say the small lineup of Tyus-Quinn-Sheed would get destroyed on defense given what we know now about Quinn/Tyus' defensive capabilities. Quinn gets burned by a lot of ACC starting point guards, and Tyus' reportedly had issues with defense at the all-star training camps. Sure, I definitely hope Tyus and Quinn make huge strides on defense this summer, but we can't assume the best-case scenario.

I think it's far too early to declare that we know anything conclusive about Tyus's defensive capabilities, especially if that opinion is based on all-star game training camps. And even if Tyus is not a defensive ace, neither was Seth, and like I've said repeatedly, the Curry-Cook-Sheed perimeter did not get destroyed. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm not necessarily expecting it. I'm just basing my opinion on what we've already seen. Switching Seth for Tyus does not seem like a huge difference maker.

From these data points, perhaps one truth is that the backcourt either needs to be big/long or they need to be fast.
2004 - sure we had a 3-guard lineup, but Duhon/Dockery/Ewing were MORE than capable of staying in front of their man. Lateral quickness out the a--
2010 - amazing D all around, one would think Scheyer's lack of exceptional lateral quickness would be exploited, but his decent size and great positioning more than made up for it. Nolan wasn't big, but he was agile enough to lock down quick guards. One can imagine Sheed can take on that lockdown role, but Jon and Kyle are not walking through that door. Instead we have Quinn and Tyus. Great players sure, but defensively nowhere near Jon and Kyle who were so smart and had great size for their position.
2012-2014: Quinn and Tyler are both small and not exceptionally blessed with lateral quickness. Would place Seth in this category too, but he was severely hampered by injury in 2013.

If you're not tall/long, you have to be laterally quick. Like Duhon, Dockery, Nolan, DeMarcus
If you're not fast, it helps to be tall/long. Like Scheyer, UCLA's Kyle Anderson. Or exceptionally crafty like Kendall Marshall, Scheyer, and Anderson.

The defensive worst-case is to be slow and small (relative to top D-1 backcourts) like Quinn and Tyler, and this year it was SEVERELY exacerbated by total lack of help by the bigs.
At times, it seemed we were making every ACC PG we faced look like a NBA prospect. That Clemson guard comes to mind.

It almost seems like K has been so used to having lockdown guard defenders who were not that tall and continued with the same system once Nolan graduated. But the smaller guards we were trying to put in the lockdown-Nolan role post-2011 didn't have the physical/mental capabilities to do so. In fact the 2012-2014 defenses are Duke's #2, #4, and #1 worst ratings since KenPom started at #81, #31, #116.

I agree with most of this and I have a few thoughts:

1. Rodney Hood was long for a wing -- he might not have a great wingspan (I'm not sure what it is), but he's still relatively long for a college wing. You would figure that even with a a slow/small guard like Quinn/Tyler, the combination of Sheed (laterally quick) and Hood (a long wing) would still be pretty good, but it wasn't.
2. Many people have mentioned the packed-in defense that the 2010 team played. It helped that Jon and Kyle were relatively long and could contest three-point shooters better than smaller guards could, and a smaller perimeter probably wouldn't be able to contest the three as effectively. So the length of Kyle and Jon definitely played a role in the 2010 defense's success, and a small perimeter might not be able to replicate this success. However, I still feel that the 2010 strategy would work better than the 2014 ball-pressure strategy because 1) the rule changes prevent guards with average lateral quickness from pressuring the ball without fouling and 2) besides maybe Sheed, Duke doesn't have guard with above-average lateral quickness. Sure the packed in defense will make it tougher to contest threes, but I think the biggest problem of the 2014 defense was that opposing guards would blow by Duke's perimeter guys and carve up the rest of the defense.

It's really too bad about Quinn's knee problems, perhaps he's never fully recovered and lost a bit of a step.

I also agree with this. I also think Quinn took a tailspin after suffering his ankle injury/injuries last season. I don't know to what extent he has recovered or will recover from his knee issues, but I expect that he will play better with healthy ankles next season than he did in the second half of last season.

[Kedsy]

And my point was that Curry-Cook-Sheed, which is not too different from Tyus-Cook-Sheed, played the bulk of the perimeter minutes for that #31-ranked defense (which, again, would not have been ranked #31 had Ryan not gotten hurt) and did not get "destroyed," which is what you predict would happen with a Tyus-Cook-Sheed backcourt.

For what it's worth, the day before Ryan got hurt in 2013, Duke's defense was ranked 7th by Pomeroy. We actually got as high as 4th, four days after Ryan was hurt, but then we faded during the ACC season without our most important defensive player. And as you point out, this was with an undersized SF, a SG with an injured leg, and a laterally-challenged PG.

I agree with you that it's too simplistic to pinpoint our recent defensive struggles on having a small (or even not particularly quick) perimeter.

[Saratoga2]

The national championship winner featured two very small but quick guards and packed their defense in with good rim protectors. Boatright is only about 5'10" but he is exceptionally quick. Both their guards could challenge the three and also make it difficult to penetrate so despite their size, they beat a team with two 6'6" guards. They played their defense based on their personnel and it worked for them. Kevin Ollie should be given a lot of credit for how they played.

Duke has small PG's if they both play together, plus our defense gets spread and we don't pack in so it makes it very difficult for our guards to prevent penetration. I think Rasheed is the quickest with Quinn average and it is hard to access Tyus at this point. Matt Jones is bigger and longer but not exceptionally quick. Grayson is neither particularly big or quick but is a very good athlete. In my opinion, it is up to the coaching staff to look at making adjustments to our MTM defensive style to best fit our personnel. What we did last year certainly didn't work.

[COYS]

For what it's worth, the day before Ryan got hurt in 2013, Duke's defense was ranked 7th by Pomeroy. We actually got as high as 4th, four days after Ryan was hurt, but then we faded during the ACC season without our most important defensive player. And as you point out, this was with an undersized SF, a SG with an injured leg, and a laterally-challenged PG.

I agree with you that it's too simplistic to pinpoint our recent defensive struggles on having a small (or even not particularly quick) perimeter.

Thanks for pointing this out. I was going to mention this as well, but I could remember the exact number. I thought it was a top 10 defense. Truth be told, Duke was a very serious title contender before Ryan went down. I've said this in another thread, but 2013 was a much better year than I think people realize, games against Maryland notwithstanding. Our defense was elite when Ryan was healthy. It is certainly fair to speculate as to whether or not the matchup with Louisville would have gone differently with a fully healthy and in-sync Ryan plus a fully healthy Seth. Who knows if we would have won, considering how well Louisville played in the second half. But I bet it would have been much closer with a higher probability of us winning just like we did when we played them in November 2012.

Anyway, all this is to reiterate the point that it paints and incomplete picture to say that Duke's defense has been beneath Duke standards for three years, now. No doubt 2012 and especially 2014 were pretty poor. However, 2013 was actually a very good year defensively when the team was healthy and still a pretty decent year despite Ryan's injury. So much of Duke's defensive success is predicated on the ability of big men to hedge. The pressure our guards put on opposing guards is a gamble, as it is much easier to get by a defender with a screen if the defender is in your face all the time. However, if the big guys hedge and recover effectively, then it can cut off driving lanes and passing lanes for the ball handler. Quite honestly, I think the single biggest deficiency for the 2014 team was a lack of consistent hedging. Jabari was particularly bad at it and opposing teams used Jabari's man in ball screens over and over. However, Marshall and Amile showed promise in this area. If they continue to improve, if the addition of Jahlil improves our overall post defense, and if the coaching staff works in some new wrinkles to improve the defensive scheme, I think Duke's defense will return to where it belongs, whether or not we play three guards or two on the perimeter.

[wk2109]

Thanks for pointing this out. I was going to mention this as well, but I could remember the exact number. I thought it was a top 10 defense. Truth be told, Duke was a very serious title contender before Ryan went down. I've said this in another thread, but 2013 was a much better year than I think people realize, games against Maryland notwithstanding. Our defense was elite when Ryan was healthy. It is certainly fair to speculate as to whether or not the matchup with Louisville would have gone differently with a fully healthy and in-sync Ryan plus a fully healthy Seth. Who knows if we would have won, considering how well Louisville played in the second half. But I bet it would have been much closer with a higher probability of us winning just like we did when we played them in November 2012.

I agree completely. Before Ryan got hurt, Duke was 14-0 (15-0 if you count the game in which he got hurt) after one of the toughest non-conference schedules in history (at least on paper) and ranked #1 in the country. I think 2013 is almost on par with 2011 as far as my 'what could have been' fantasies go.

I would surmise that Duke would have been a #1 seed -- perhaps even the overall #1 -- had Ryan stayed healthy. Thus the Louisville game wouldn't have happened until the Final Four or national championship game.